Nadal is the favourite against Djokovic based on history

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Amelie Mauresmo

Banned
Nadal has a 4-0 record against Djokovic at the French Open, yes Novak beat Nadal in Monte Carlo but he has NEVER beaten Nadal in Paris. I think the pressure is all on Novak if he loses the first set I predict Nadal will win the match either in three or four sets. I think Novak needs to win the first two sets to gain confidence if he loses the first two sets the match is over just like last year's final.

The media will hype this match to the maximum but the pressure is all on Novak is he the real number one? Can Novak assert himself and come up with the upset victory?

It is strange that the number one player if he beats Nadal is actually an upset but since Nadal has been dominant in Paris this is the story.

I am just not convinced about Novak being able to beat Nadal in Paris. I thought Novak's match against Haas he got sloppy close to the end. Novak had a 5-3 lead and I think a match point but he let the lead slip and Haas got it to 5-5 all. Against Nadal, Novak can't do that he can't let leads slip or else he's going to lose.

I think yesterday Novak was too up and down he played the first two sets well but seemed to lose his concentration close to the end. Against, Nadal, Novak will need razor sharp concentration. I just feel due to the history once Nadal wins the first set the match is basically over because I am not sure Novak has the confidence to win.

Everyone knows I am no fan of Nadal but he is the heavy favourite tomorrow. I don't think Novak is going to win. Novak would have to play amazing tennis from the start. Nadal has a history of being too tough to beat in the later rounds of grand slams. Nadal also has a 4-0 record against Novak at the French Open. So as sad as it is to say Nadal is probably going to be the winner and he will probably win his eighth French Open on Sunday.
 
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As a Nadal fan, I am actually worried about tomorrow's match. For the first time ever at the French Open, I feel Nadal's opponent starts out as the favorite. I think the 3rd set of last year's final itself was enough to put serious doubts in my mind. I know, Rafa is coming back from a long lay-off, so to expect him to start as favorite here is plain crazy. But this is Rafa, the man has done far more ridiculous things in the past and this is HIS tournament. So, I will be devastated to see him lose to Djokovic tomorrow. Which I think he will btw.
 
Yes, plan to be devastated. When Novak is at his best, he does everything just a wee bit better then Nadal, on any surface. Past history is meaningless. Ask Nadal if he thinks past history gives him an edge.
 
Gangsta said:
As a Nadal fan, I am actually worried about tomorrow's match. For the first time ever at the French Open, I feel Nadal's opponent starts out as the favorite. I think the 3rd set of last year's final itself was enough to put serious doubts in my mind. I know, Rafa is coming back from a long lay-off, so to expect him to start as favorite here is plain crazy. But this is Rafa, the man has done far more ridiculous things in the past and this is HIS tournament. So, I will be devastated to see him lose to Djokovic tomorrow. Which I think he will btw.
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Nadal is a grinder. He grinds out wins. This is standard fare for Nadal.

Djokovic is also a grinder.

However, after watching both Djokovic and Nadal this clay season... I give a large edge to Nadal. Djokovic has showed more than a few serious lapses mentally and physically. If Djokovic remotely has some of those issues against Nadal... then Djokovic is going to get crushed.

Nadal, even though his form isn't 100%, has been consistent. He has played several opponents who have went on red-hot streaks against him.... only to figure out how to beat them. The guy has not lapsed mentally or physically even once. Nadal is as focused as ever.

The way I see this match going is that Djokovic will hang with Nadal for the first set. However, like other of Djokovic's recent matches, I see him starting to spray some unforced errors and then losing it mentally.

I just don't see Djokovic being focused enough to beat Nadal right now.
 
Gangsta said:
As a Nadal fan, I am actually worried about tomorrow's match. For the first time ever at the French Open, I feel Nadal's opponent starts out as the favorite. I think the 3rd set of last year's final itself was enough to put serious doubts in my mind. I know, Rafa is coming back from a long lay-off, so to expect him to start as favorite here is plain crazy. But this is Rafa, the man has done far more ridiculous things in the past and this is HIS tournament. So, I will be devastated to see him lose to Djokovic tomorrow. Which I think he will btw.
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Why would you be devastated? He's got 7 titles here, more than anyone else.
I think because he's been so successful there some fans don't really appreciate what he already got and only expect him to keep winning, which is ridiculous.
 
CMM said:
Why would you be devastated? He's got 7 titles here, more than anyone else.
I think because he's been so successful there some fans don't really appreciate what he already got and only expect him to keep winning, which is ridiculous.
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Yes he's only human. If winning 7 majors on clay isn't enough for his fans, then they I don't know what is? :-?
 
The press always hype Nadal and Djokovic's matches at the French Open but has there ever been a close match? Last year's final was kind of competitive but again Nadal won in four sets.

I think if Nadal wins the first two sets the match is over. So it is up to Novak to come out of the blocks early he has to win the first or second sets if he doesn't he's toast.

Novak's been too up and down in terms of his concentration he played sloppy tennis in his fourth round and quarterfinal matches. He cannot play this way against Nadal tomorrow or else he will get blasted off the court.

Nadal doesn't have mental lapses in concentration he's very focused I can't stand the guy but I must concede he is very mentally tough.

Nadal also wants revenge after Novak beat him in Monte Carlo so I don't think this match is going to be that tough for Nadal to win.

It seems to be the same story for Nadal at the French Open he might lose before Paris on clay but usually he picks it up in the latter rounds.
 
I agree that Nadal is the favorite against anyone at Roland Garros until someone beats him.

I don't buy much of the reasoning.

I believe Djokovic wanted two titles when clay season started. He got the first at Monte Carlo. This is the second. He lost at Rome and Madrid, but I don't think he cared that much.

Nadal of course wants to win everything on clay.

I believe these two have split their last 6 on clay. So, Djokovic, more than anyone has shown that he can go toe to toe with Rafa on clay. The other point is that Djokovic doesn't have to redline his game to beat Nadal. He has to play great, yes, but he doesn't have to get outside of himself.

The other difference is that if he does redline, he will dominate Nadal, whereas redlining for any other players simply gives them a chance.

At the present, I think this match is a toss-up, but you have to slightly favor Nadal based on his history of dominance on clay, in general, and Roland Garros in particular.
 
Cvac has owned Nadal across all surfaces for 2+ years now. How on earth can Nadal be the favorite in any match they play? Nadal will lose tomorrow and lose swiftly.
 
I don't think revenge for Monte Carlo outweighs Djokovic's desire for his career slam or revenge for last year's RG.
 
This is going to be a nervous match with many unforced errors. Novak will be nervous because he has a chance to complete the career grand slam only in 3 years and a few months(Jan of 2011 through May 2013--yes he won the AO in 2008 so it could be 5 years). Nadal is going to be nervous because the last big match they, played, Novak outlasted him and he is going for his 8th FO win. Surface doesn't matter, it will be a tight, nervous match.

That's the way I see it anyway.
 
Bhagi Katbamna said:
This is going to be a nervous match with many unforced errors. Novak will be nervous because he has a chance to complete the career grand slam only in 3 years and a few months(Jan of 2011 through May 2013--yes he won the AO in 2008 so it could be 5 years). Nadal is going to be nervous because the last big match they, played, Novak outlasted him and he is going for his 8th FO win. Surface doesn't matter, it will be a tight, nervous match.

That's the way I see it anyway.
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So,who's your pick? :)
 
spinovic said:
I agree that Nadal is the favorite against anyone at Roland Garros until someone beats him.

I don't buy much of the reasoning.

I believe Djokovic wanted two titles when clay season started. He got the first at Monte Carlo. This is the second. He lost at Rome and Madrid, but I don't think he cared that much.

Nadal of course wants to win everything on clay.

I believe these two have split their last 6 on clay. So, Djokovic, more than anyone has shown that he can go toe to toe with Rafa on clay. The other point is that Djokovic doesn't have to redline his game to beat Nadal. He has to play great, yes, but he doesn't have to get outside of himself.

The other difference is that if he does redline, he will dominate Nadal, whereas redlining for any other players simply gives them a chance.

At the present, I think this match is a toss-up, but you have to slightly favor Nadal based on his history of dominance on clay, in general, and Roland Garros in particular.
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I'm not sure if merely playing great (not outside his comfort zone) is enough for Novak to beat Nadal if we're specifically talking about the FO, Nadal is tough as nails there, I don't think Novak is above getting frustrated by Nadal's defense on clay and piling up UFEs as a result when he's up against him in a BO5 match on clay.

Facing Nadal at FO is not such a scary proposition because you can't dominate/outplay him for stretches of the match, it's about keeping that level of clean aggressive tennis long enough to take 3 sets off him, Soderling is the only one who managed to do that so far.

Even against Novak, Nadal is the one playing with the higher margin, make no mistake about that.
 
zagor said:
I'm not sure if merely playing great (not outside his comfort zone) is enough for Novak to beat Nadal if we're specifically talking about the FO, Nadal is tough as nails there, I don't think Novak is above getting frustrated by Nadal's defense on clay and piling up UFEs as a result when he's up against him in a BO5 match on clay.

Facing Nadal at FO is not such a scary proposition because you can't dominate/outplay him for stretches of the match, it's about keeping that level of clean aggressive tennis long enough to take 3 sets off him, Soderling is the only one who managed to do that so far.

Even against Novak, Nadal is the one playing with the higher margin, make no mistake about that.
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I think that's partly true in the sense that Novak needs to hit a lot of DTL BHs(which are kinda risky even for him)to break Ralph's rhythm and open up the court and go DTL with his FH. But Novak does have the luxury of returning Ralph's serve with ease thus getting into most of his return games so there's a little room for him to breathe there.

I just think it will come down to who plays the big points well,going by the signs from the gods and goin by the positive vibes of the once holy and powerful brethren thread started by the mighty F1Bob(who's no longer amongst us,bless his soul), Novak will do this in 4.
 
monfed said:
I think that's partly true in the sense that Novak needs to hit a lot of DTL BHs(which are kinda risky even for him)to break Ralph's rhythm and open up the court and go DTL with his FH. But Novak does have the luxury of returning Ralph's serve with ease thus getting into most of his return games so there's a little room for him to breathe there.

I just think it will come down to who plays the big points well,going by the signs from the gods and goin by the positive vibes of the once holy and powerful brethren thread started by the mighty F1Bob(who's no longer amongst us,bless his soul), Novak will do this in 4.
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As Cesc mentioned on one of this thread,",Man you need help!!:shock:
 
monfed said:
I think that's partly true in the sense that Novak needs to hit a lot of DTL BHs(which are kinda risky even for him)to break Ralph's rhythm and open up the court and go DTL with his FH. But Novak does have the luxury of returning Ralph's serve with ease thus getting into most of his return games so there's a little room for him to breathe there.
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But there you said it yourself, Novak will have to take the ball early and change direction often, either when he opens the court after going several times to Nadal's BH with his CC FH or to go DTL with his BH when they engage in Nadal's favourite pattern, his lefty CC FH to opponent's BH (not even Novak can do that forever on high bouncing red clay despite having a great two hander).

It will be up to Novak to create and attack, Nadal will do what he does best, retreat behind baseline, counterpunch and defend like crazy and attack short balls with his FH, on clay he can do that forever and make very little errors in the process, his game is never risky (very little can go off).

What I'm saying is that I expect Novak's level to fluctuate throughout the match far more than Nadal's, if Novak can execute his gameplan well enough for 3 sets he can win but that's extremely hard to do against Nadal in these conditions, Novak will have to very patient and zoned in mentally.

I agree about Novak's ROS, if he consistently gets Nadal's serve back hard and deep, Nadal will be under tremendous pressure in his service games which is something he isn't used to (the vast majority players find Nadal's serve very tricky to handle).

monfed said:
I just think it will come down to who plays the big points well,going by the signs from the gods and goin by the positive vibes of the once holy and powerful brethren thread started by the mighty F1Bob(who's no longer amongst us,bless his soul), Novak will do this in 4.
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LOL yeah, let's hope Novak plays some inspired tennis tomorrow.

I really liked Bob, he was one poster who didn't give a crap about either Fed or Nadal, very rare on this forum.
 
zagor said:
LOL yeah, let's hope Novak plays some inspired tennis tomorrow.

I really liked Bob, he was one poster who didn't give a crap about either Fed or Nadal, very rare on this forum.
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He was also one of the few light-hearted posters on this forum. He got flamed from all sides but he just laughed it off and posted gifs.
 
CMM said:
Why would you be devastated? He's got 7 titles here, more than anyone else.
I think because he's been so successful there some fans don't really appreciate what he already got and only expect him to keep winning, which is ridiculous.
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I appreciate it a lot. That is why I am a huge fan, I appreciate what he has done for the sport. But it will be sad to see him lose at RG, because of all the brilliance he has provided here over the years. Kinda like how the 2008 Wimbledon final must have been tough for Federer fans, I guess.
 
Nadal is the clear favourite....
The only way Djokovic can make this match competitive or even win the match is by winning the first set. Otherwise its a goner.
 
zagor said:
But there you said it yourself, Novak will have to take the ball early and change direction often, either when he opens the court after going several times to Nadal's BH with his CC FH or to go DTL with his BH when they engage in Nadal's favourite pattern, his lefty CC FH to opponent's BH (not even Novak can do that forever on high bouncing red clay despite having a great two hander).

It will be up to Novak to create and attack, Nadal will do what he does best, retreat behind baseline, counterpunch and defend like crazy and attack short balls with his FH, on clay he can do that forever and make very little errors in the process, his game is never risky (very little can go off).

What I'm saying is that I expect Novak's level to fluctuate throughout the match far more than Nadal's, if Novak can execute his gameplan well enough for 3 sets he can win but that's extremely hard to do against Nadal in these conditions, Novak will have to very patient and zoned in mentally.

I agree about Novak's ROS, if he consistently gets Nadal's serve back hard and deep, Nadal will be under tremendous pressure in his service games which is something he isn't used to (the vast majority players find Nadal's serve very tricky to handle).
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Excellent analysis,kinda depressing to read though haha,esp the part about Novak's level fluctuating throughout the match(great observation again),lets hope that doesn't hurt him in the important points tomorrow.

BTW if Novak wins the first set, how do you see it play out? Will he get it done in 4 and if it goes to 5 who's your pick? Is it curtains for Novak if he loses the first set?


zagor said:
LOL yeah, let's hope Novak plays some inspired tennis tomorrow.

I really liked Bob, he was one poster who didn't give a crap about either Fed or Nadal, very rare on this forum.
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Yea true. Also his gifs which would capture the moment so accurately. Oh well. *SIGH* :(
 
Sid_Vicious said:
He was also one of the few light-hearted posters on this forum. He got flamed from all sides but he just laughed it off and posted gifs.
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Yea the pro-match results forum is just not the same without him. Probably went a bit overboard. :(
 
CMM said:
Why would you be devastated? He's got 7 titles here, more than anyone else.
I think because he's been so successful there some fans don't really appreciate what he already got and only expect him to keep winning, which is ridiculous.
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Oh come on CMM, cut the crap. If Nadal loses his crown where he has ruled for years, you will not feel good as a Nadal fan. Take it from a Federer fan who has been there, it won't be a good loss for him despite his 7 titles there.
 
monfed said:
Excellent analysis,kinda depressing to read though haha,esp the part about Novak's level fluctuating throughout the match(great observation again),lets hope that doesn't hurt him in the important points tomorrow.

BTW if Novak wins the first set, how do you see it play out? Will he get it done in 4 and if it goes to 5 who's your pick? Is it curtains for Novak if he loses the first set?
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I'm not sure to be honest, when there isn't a lot separating great players 1st set is usually crucial but both of them are so fit and Novak sometimes starts playing his best tennis when he gets pi$$ed off at the fact that he's losing and/or when his back is against the wall.

I'd pick Novak if it goes to 5 actually, I think that currently he's mentally stronger than Nadal and is the only one who can match his stamina/endurance but sadly I think the most likely outcome is Nadal in 4, will really root for Novak to do it though, it would be about time he finally won FO.
 
Its quite depressing to watch the style of tennis Nadal plays, esp at RG - endless FH CC to BH, super high topspins, get every ball back, and wait for the loose ball.

In some ways its the perfect strategy if you can pull it off physically, yet its somehow not quite tennis.

Its really quite a challenge to overcome for anyone. I just hope we get a great match.
 
I don't doubt Nadal is the favourite. But I remember back in 2011 it was "djokovic can't beat Nadal in a final" then "he can't beat him on clay" then "he can't beat him on real clay" then "he can't beat him in a slam" so I don't think the fact that he hasn't beaten him at RG proes he can't do that. Just let's see who plays better.
 
U gonna have longer points on clay.Nadal is the master of playing defense on the court and waiting for his opponents to make UEs

I think Djoker is gonna have to go for broke tomorrow.The conditions wont help him tomorrow
 
Towser83 said:
I don't doubt Nadal is the favourite. But I remember back in 2011 it was "djokovic can't beat Nadal in a final" then "he can't beat him on clay" then "he can't beat him on real clay" then "he can't beat him in a slam" so I don't think the fact that he hasn't beaten him at RG proes he can't do that. Just let's see who plays better.
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I remember that and it was quite hilarious to see Djokovic knock those challenges off one by one. :lol: Do you recall Yoda trolling the Nadal fans by creating The son of god threads and also his congratulatory thread for Ralph after Djokovic's exhausting semi against Murray in Rome 2011? :lol:
I still consider that to be the ultimate jinx thread.(Clarky could take a leaf out of Yoda's book :lol:)
 
History tells girls that they won't be pregnant next week.
 
Nothing has really changed. Nadal was the favorite coming into the event, and Djokovic was the second favorite and the guy with the best chance to dethrone Nadal. That is still true.

Nadal goes in fav, but by no means is he overwhelming fav, this is the only match that he actually can lose. But he is the fav heading in.
 
monfed said:
I remember that and it was quite hilarious to see Djokovic knock those challenges off one by one. :lol: Do you recall Yoda trolling the Nadal fans by creating The son of god threads and also his congratulatory thread for Ralph after Djokovic's exhausting semi against Murray in Rome 2011? :lol:
I still consider that to be the ultimate jinx thread.(Clarky could take a leaf out of Yoda's book :lol:)
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Oh yeah I remember now, Yoda was great at that stuff :lol:
 
well history sure did not help in 2009 when nadal lost. at that point history was saying nadal has never lost, nadal has never been pushed and so on. what happened again? history also did not suggest that novak wiuld have that unbelievable 2011. the thing with history is that everything can happen so that people will talk about it later
 
Clarky21 said:
Yeah me too. Cvac is going to curb stomp Nadal in 3 easy sets. I smell breadsticks and bagels baking in Dr. Igor's oven.
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Aren't you a Nadal fan? What kind of faith is this? Have faith , have faith!
Where there is a breath , there is a hope.
 
I can't lose either way. On the one hand, I'd rather Nadal did not beat Federer's slam count.

On the other hand, I'll make £60 if Nadal and S.Williams win the French (and let's face it, Djokovic is the only one who can stop that from happening).

Nice afternoon for me on the sofa.
 
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