I agee with your overall post. But I have to disagree with this piece. No matter how Federer serves, there is no way he can win 3 sets off Novak on the current gras in 2019.Still, I believe Federer can win Wimbledon 2019 defeating both Nadal and Djokovic, provided that his serve is spot on.
I have to disagree with that. Nadal-Djokovic is ALL about matchup. Fed-Djokovic is NOT,T Basically Djokovic sees red when he sees Federer, Nadal or Murray on the other side of the net. That comes from the massive respect he has for them, but their mere presence wakes up the warrior within him and he just wants to beat them no matter what.
To your point Rafa gave an interview awhile back and cited djokovic “power” hitting “wide angles” as a big issue.I have to disagree with that. Nadal-Djokovic is ALL about matchup. Fed-Djokovic is NOT,
The reason why Novak beats Fed is that Novak is simply a better player at this time and Fed has declined. In a way their peaks never coincided and had a very NARROW prime overlap.
Peak/Prime Fed was very good against Novak and beat him several times. How peak/prime Fed would far against peak/prime/current Djokovic is a matter of conjecture. Still the matches would be very competitive.
Not as one sided given that Fed is just not good enough these days as he has aged.
With Nadal-Novak the story is SIGNIFICANTLY different. Novak can even beat a peak Nadal because of the matchup advantage. Even when Novak was CUB (pre 2011) - he would still give Rafa fits.
In Rafa's book or opinions of Toni, Novak is the perfect player to counter Nadal's game. Amazing ROS, Out of the world backhand, ability to hit short spinny forehands etc. The problem in the early part of Novak's career was that he just could NOT stay physically with Nadal. Once he got stronger mentally and physically, post 2011 - it was game over for Rafa. The Nadal camp knew that this was the perfect player - as it relates to beating Rafa.
On ex of matchup of Novak/Nadal: Now Novak's forehand is obviously not as good as Fed's. But still Nadal has FAR more difficulty with Novak's forehand than Fed's. Why? Because Djokovic is very good at hitting short wide angles with his fh. He then pushes Nadal out wide and completely on the defensive. Djokovic is also great at hitting winners on the slices that Nadal coughs up when defending the backhand.
So yeah, if Novak plays his A game, no chance for Nadal. However is Nadal is at his A++ game and Novak is off, then yes Rafa wins sometimes. That is why their h2h is so lopsided esp after 2011.
Rafa looked at least as good as Novak last Wimbledon. I'd give Novak just a slight edge.Djokovic didn't look indestructible at AO either until he got to the semis, knowing Nadal was waiting in the finals. The difference in the level from the guy who lost a set to Shapovalov and Medvedev and the guy who turned it up in the semis and final is like night and day.
Djokovic raised his level immensely last year as soon as he saw Nadal across the net at Wimbledon, he will not hesitate to do that again this year whether he meets Federer or Nadal. No one is saying Novak is unbeatable here, but at his best, he is the best on grass right now, lets not kid ourselves. If he enters Earth's Mightiest Warrior mode, it doesn't matter who is on the other side and what they are bringing, he is the fav.
You are delusionalReally? After playing his worst match on clay since 2004 in Monte Carlo semifinal? After being routined by Thiem in Barcelona (while not even playing too bad this time) and playing another terrible match against Tsitsipas in Madrid? Nah, he wasn't the favorite. He was at best a second favorite thanks to winning the title in Rome. And if you guys were reading the forum you would see that almost everybody expected Djokovic to win RG.
outright - it's money in the bank, I can't believe the bookies were so unbelievably stupid.each way or outright win?
If I got 7/1 for each way, that would be 3.5/1 for him to reach the final... that's a fn good value.
For starters, Halle and Wimbledon play differently even though both are grass courts. Halle is more faster and slippery. Wimbledon is slower and the rallies are longer. So Tsonga was more deadly in HalleFederer could not trash this same Tsonga in Halle 2 weeks ago. Tsonga was also old and done in Halle.