Nadal may not be number 2 seed for French open 2021

[Nadal_King]

Although with rafa at rg these things matter almost nothing but still for other players it does, with rafa meddy so close and rafa defending a lot of points at clay and Medvedev almost nothing a good chance nadal is seeded 3 or lower and we have nadal/djokovic in same half after almost 3 years,with that thiem nadal may end up surely in opposite halfs and guaranteed to only meet in finals if possible, I guess djokovic best chance to beat nadal will be in semi and if djokovic/nadal in same half then huge breather for thiem

 

[James P]

In a weird way for him, it's good for the reasons you listed...guaranteed to not play both Thiem and Djokovic back to back.

 

[Nadal_King]

In a weird way for him, it's good for the reasons you listed...guaranteed to not play both Thiem and Djokovic back to back.

Not guaranteed as he could draw djokovic in semi and thiem in final but yes could also get Medvedev half and then it will be a cakewalk to the final

 

[James P]

Not guaranteed as he could draw djokovic in semi and thiem in final but yes could also get Medvedev half and then it will be a cakewalk to the final

Oh yeah, that's true. I didn't think that through

 

[Lleytonstation]

Well it reduces his chance only very very slightly . As he would have a 50% chance to play Djoker in the SF. But the order does not really matter in the end. He will still be favored.

 

[MeatTornado]

Seed him 32nd, who cares? Changes absolutely nothing.

 

[StrongRule]

Seed him 32nd, who cares? Changes absolutely nothing.

Before the final he might meet Djokovic in a night match.

 

[MeatTornado]

Before the final he might meet Djokovic in a night match.

If you're worried about Djokovic then his seeding doesn't make a difference.

1st round, 4th round, final. Novak will win the entire tournament in straight sets anyway. I'd be surprised if Rafa even holds serve once the entire match.

 

[BeatlesFan]

... then it will be a cakewalk to the final

Since 2005, it's been a cakewalk to the final for Rafa every year except three. Does the draw even matter at this point, he just destroyed the dominant #1 player and fellow ATG in the RG final 6 months ago.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Seed him 32nd, who cares? Changes absolutely nothing.

Make him beat all 32 seeds. Changes absolutely nothing.

 

[The Blond Blur]

It really doesn't matter what # is next to his name, he's still RAFA

 

[Breakpointerer]

He might as well be unseeded, still changes nothing

 

[Beckerserve]

Although with rafa at rg these things matter almost nothing but still for other players it does, with rafa meddy so close and rafa defending a lot of points at clay and Medvedev almost nothing a good chance nadal is seeded 3 or lower and we have nadal/djokovic in same half after almost 3 years,with that thiem nadal may end up surely in opposite halfs and guaranteed to only meet in finals if possible, I guess djokovic best chance to beat nadal will be in semi and if djokovic/nadal in same half then huge breather for thiem

Medvedev has to win AO to overtake Rafa and Rafa had an awful clay season last season and year before by his standards outside FO. If Djokovic loses AO i think more chance Nadal is no.1 by FO?

 

[Beckerserve]

It really doesn't matter what # is next to his name, he's still RAFA

Wasnt moving like that yesterday.

 

[James P]

Medvedev has to win AO to overtake Rafa and Rafa had an awful clay season last season and year before by his standards outside FO. If Djokovic loses AO i think more chance Nadal is no.1 by FO?

Well, Djokovic has maximum 2000 points out of AO no matter what. Still in covid rankings territory until next month.

 

[Beckerserve]

Well, Djokovic has maximum 2000 points out of AO no matter what. Still in covid rankings territory until next month.

If he loses would he not lose 800 points?

 

[Winner]

It really doesn't matter what # is next to his name, he's still RAFA

# to his name matters. Hopefully it's 14 in June.

 

[James P]

If he loses would he not lose 800 points?

No. It's covid rankings. He retains 2000 points from the 2020 AO. No matter what.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Wasnt moving like that yesterday.

....Yes because the AO has always been relevant in regards to how he performs at RG

 

[Beckerserve]

....Yes because the AO has always been relevant in regards to how he performs at RG

No you misunderstand. I was not saying he is in decline. I mean yesterday shows how far off his physical level he was.

 

[Beckerserve]

No. It's covid rankings. He retains 2000 points from the 2020 AO. No matter what.

Why are they doing that? Makes no sense lol.

 

[James P]

Why are they doing that? Makes no sense lol.

I hate it. I got why they did it at first, but I've grown to hate the system. If they are going to do a 24 month ranking, the least they could have done was to weight the previous 12 months higher than the 2019/early 2020 atp points. Like a 100%/75% type split or something of that ilk. But, to be honest I wish they'd scrap it altogether, although they can't do it now.

 

[HBK4life]

I don’t think it matters.

 

[Red Rick]

Seriously who wants Daniil frigging Medvedev as a top 2 seed?

 

[OldschoolKIaus]

Maybe he will finally face a tougher draw lol

"Bery tough draw, no?"

 

[Mileta Cekovic]

Its time for RG to borrow seeding formula from Wimbledon and weight more points won on the Clay.
RG and Wimbledon deserve that, as their respective surfaces differ significantly compared to the average tour surface.
HC slams can stay on the current seeding formula based on purely ATP ranking as hard court surface is in general similar to the average tour surface, not only because most of the tournaments are on HC, but also because Clay and Grass extremes annulate each other more or less.

 

[Milanez82]

I hate it. I got why they did it at first, but I've grown to hate the system. If they are going to do a 24 month ranking, the least they could have done was to weight the previous 12 months higher than the 2019/early 2020 atp points. Like a 100%/75% type split or something of that ilk. But, to be honest I wish they'd scrap it altogether, although they can't do it now.

Any clue when will they drop this 24 month cycle, not before end of 2021?

 

[James P]

Any clue when will they drop this 24 month cycle, not before end of 2021?

It starts back up the normal week of Indian Wells, I believe, next month.

Indian Wells points from 2019 are for sure dropping soon.

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

If you're worried about Djokovic then his seeding doesn't make a difference.

1st round, 4th round, final. Novak will win the entire tournament in straight sets anyway. I'd be surprised if Rafa even holds serve once the entire match.

SR is scared of RAFA's own shadow beating him in straight sets

 

[James P]

Any clue when will they drop this 24 month cycle, not before end of 2021?

It starts back up the normal week of Indian Wells, I believe, next month.

Indian Wells points from 2019 are for sure dropping soon.

Ok, I found the precise answer:

In October, due to ongoing COVID-19 concerns, ATP announced that it would move to a Best of 24-month ranking, extending the current ranking approach through and including the week of 1 March 2021. All events continue to be non-mandatory through this period.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/news/fedex-atp-rankings-adjustments-faq

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

It really doesn’t matter what Rafa draws at RG. When we know there is only 1 winner there.

 

[James P]

Oops, should have read deeper into that article:

Editor's Note: If you would like more information on the rankings changes, submit your question via our Feedback page.

- This story was updated 4 February 2021 to clarify that the ATP Board-approved two-week extension runs through the week of 15 March 2021, not to the week of 15 March 2021.

 

[Rosstour]

....Yes because the AO has always been relevant in regards to how he performs at RG

Well, every year he wins AO, he loses at RG. lol

 

[Djokovic2011]

It really doesn't matter what # is next to his name, he's still RAFA

I really hope Djokovic comes out on Sunday in the same way that Nadal did in that final, basically saying "this is my court and come hell or high water you ain't taking the trophy away from me".

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Let's face it, with ITF's idiotic seeding system, it's wholly irrelevant whether you're 1st or 2nd seed.

Didn't 1st-seed Novak draw 3rd-seed Thiem this AO?

Makes no sense...

QF:

2 vs 5
1 vs 6

So being 7th and 8th seeds is BETTER than being better ranked at 5 or 6: you usually avoid the top 2 in the QFs.

1 vs 5 happens way too often.

SF:

1 vs 3.

As dumb as it gets. Did tennis officials all fail maths at school?

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Seed him 32nd, who cares? Changes absolutely nothing.

You are wrong, and it has been consistently shown that Nadal for years got pigeons at RG. Even with the weak clay court competition.

 

[MichaelNadal]

It really doesn’t matter what Rafa draws at RG. When we know there is only 1 winner there.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Basically what Rafa does to his opponents on a PC clay court lol

 

[UnderratedSlam]

You are wrong, and it has been consistently shown that Nadal for years got pigeons at RG. Even with the weak clay court competition.

Everyone's a pigeon to Rafa on clay...

 

[DSH]

Great!
He will take down Joker only if the latter is still good enough to make it to the Roland Garros semi-finals.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Everyone's a pigeon to Rafa on clay...

Yes, the organisers just wanted to make sure that it stays that way.

 

[Phoenix1983]

It doesn't matter what seed Nadal is. He could be a wild card and would still be the favourite for Roland Garros.

Agreed upon by all objective tennis observers.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Yes, the organisers just wanted to make sure that it stays that way.

Because he has a French great-great-great-aunt?

 

[Djokovic2011]

Great!
He will take down Joker only if the latter is still good enough to make it to the Roland Garros semi-finals.

It's just a shame that Nadal's not good enough to make it to the final in Melbourne.

 

[-NN-]

His seeding is irrelevant.

 

[BGod]

It appears at least to me he'd have a tougher draw as a 3rd or 4th seed but maybe I'm missing something.

In 2017 he was seeded 4th and although he won without dropping a set the draw played out massively in his favour although that was not due to seeding. He got Busta in the QF who retired after the 1st set, after he beat Raonic in a marathon. Best case scenario, Nadal probably has to play at least the 3 sets and Raonic being a big server could push him at least a bit. Then he gets Thiem in the SF after he straight set Novak during his worst stretch. Then in the final he gets a hobbled Wawrinka coming off a marathon match and requiring knee surgery. I mean, would Nadal have won so easily getting Raonic, solid Novak and zoning Wawrinka? Unlikely.

Obviously any combination of Novak & Thiem makes it a tougher road, but as the 3rd or 4th seed he could also draw Tsitsipas or Zverev in the quarter. THAT would make things a bit more interesting no?

 

[Nadal_King]

It appears at least to me he'd have a tougher draw as a 3rd or 4th seed but maybe I'm missing something.

In 2017 he was seeded 4th and although he won without dropping a set the draw played out massively in his favour although that was not due to seeding. He got Busta in the QF who retired after the 1st set, after he beat Raonic in a marathon. Best case scenario, Nadal probably has to play at least the 3 sets and Raonic being a big server could push him at least a bit. Then he gets Thiem in the SF after he straight set Novak during his worst stretch. Then in the final he gets a hobbled Wawrinka coming off a marathon match and requiring knee surgery. I mean, would Nadal have won so easily getting Raonic, solid Novak and zoning Wawrinka? Unlikely.

Obviously any combination of Novak & Thiem makes it a tougher road, but as the 3rd or 4th seed he could also draw Tsitsipas or Zverev in the quarter. THAT would make things a bit more interesting no?

Tsitsipas or Zverev haven't faced rafa at rg and 1st meeting will always be a huge challenge and yes for rafa 3rd or 4th isn't much different to top 2

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Doesn't affect

 

[Third Serve]

You are wrong, and it has been consistently shown that Nadal for years got pigeons at RG. Even with the weak clay court competition.

Not like stronger competition would have done much, no?

Really, weak competition only becomes a problem if you can make a convincing claim that the players in question actually benefited from it and wouldn't have been able to have that success with at least decent competition. Nadal's RG wins have still been pretty clean (though not like the old days), especially in the later rounds. Quite different from every non-clay Slam starting with Wimbledon 2019.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Make him play Medvedev once, Thiem three times and Djokovic three times for the title, doesn't make a difference.