Nadal needs either 2 more slams or the Aus Open to surpass Federer

#4
If he wins 2 more slams then he is tied at 20 with Fed and his superior H2H will act as the tiebreaker. If he wins one more Aus Open, the DCGS will be enough to break the deadlock as well. This is of course assuming Federer doesn't add to his major tally.
What about the number of weeks at number one and missing YEC for Rafa?

Please, nobody cares about h2h
 
#13
All he has to do? Just win Wimbledon (has not done it in 9 years) and then win the USO (wont be favored). This is a massive task, and if he did this, then yeah, he will pass Fed for sure. Huge if.
Nadal would have won last W AND AO if there hadn't been Djokovic around. People tend to underestimate Nadal off Clay. He surely not dominant there but good enough to win a Slam here and there. He has gone deep (SF+) in last three non Clay Slams. He is threat at all four.
 
#17
Nadal would have won last W AND AO if there hadn't been Djokovic around. People tend to underestimate Nadal off Clay. He surely not dominant there but good enough to win a Slam here and there. He has gone deep (SF+) in last three non Clay Slams. He is threat at all four.
And if Djokovic wins the next 3 slams, he’ll tie Nadal on 18! Plus Djoko is the no1 favourite at next 3 slams, off clay he’s the dominant force!
 
#18
And if Djokovic wins the next 3 slams, he’ll tie Nadal on 18! Plus Djoko is the no1 favourite at next 3 slams, off clay he’s the dominant force!
it's all about how long he can sustain his peak level. It's already 12 months now since he hit his best level. In 2015-16 he sustained it for one and half year. Then went to downhill. If you ask me I don't think he is winning 3 in a row again.
 
#20
If he wins 2 more slams then he is tied at 20 with Fed and his superior H2H will act as the tiebreaker. If he wins one more Aus Open, the DCGS will be enough to break the deadlock as well. This is of course assuming Federer doesn't add to his major tally.
No, he will need to win one more than Federer to be considered greater than him. Or they'd be equal in the eyes of many fans, including myself. If he can't do it, that's fine too. He's already achieved so much. If he does it, he's got to be considered the GOAT unless someone else wins more or equals his final slam count.
 
#21
When future tennis experts analyse their rivalry, the H2h is the first thing they will consider
I’ve watched tennis for 25 years and I never ever hear the main commentators bring out the head to head when discussing Lendi, Connors, McEnroe, Bjorg etc etc. They mention slam count and talk about classic matches between them and that’s it.
 
#24
Fed leads in too many categories OP.
If nadal wins Wimbledon and the Aussie open and an atp final, he would have a very very strong goat case on 20 slams. If he wins 2 more french and no wtf final I think Federer has a stronger case if they are level on 20.

End of the day there is still a lot for all three to play for but at present Roger has the stronger cv
 
#27
If nadal wins Wimbledon and the Aussie open and an atp final, he would have a very very strong goat case on 20 slams. If he wins 2 more french and no wtf final I think Federer has a stronger case if they are level on 20.

End of the day there is still a lot for all three to play for but at present Roger has the stronger cv
Sounds like a cold day in Hades to me.
 
#28
Djokodal will both surpass Federer.
As of yesterday your boy's chances are reduced significantly, but I see that you switched from rooting for Djokovic to rooting against Federer.

You might want to make an ABF club and count how many members are there. I think that the joint number of Djoko and Nadsy trolls will be exactly the number of fans.

:giggle:
 
#32
If he wins 2 more slams then he is tied at 20 with Fed and his superior H2H will act as the tiebreaker. If he wins one more Aus Open, the DCGS will be enough to break the deadlock as well. This is of course assuming Federer doesn't add to his major tally.
I don’t see how. In both cases, Nadal has either LESS of everything or, at best, is equal. Let’s compare:
-less slams (or equal)
-worse record at 3 of the 4 top tournaments
-less total titles and wins
-less tier 2 titles (0:6), more tier 3 titles, less tier 4&5 titles
-less years and weeks at no. 1
-less slam finals, SFs, QFs
-ridiculously worse consistency records
-less Top 10 wins

The only thing he has more is time at no. 2 and consecutive weeks at no. 2. You could add the Olympics as well, and the famous H2H, but that won’t go far. What good is a 3:1 positive H2H at Melbourne, when you are 6:1 behind in titles?

In fact, right now everything about Rafa screams no. 2, which is perfectly fine and an amazing achievement, but some Rafa fans aren’t happy with that. I just wanted to make sure it stays that way for you - no offense to the good Rafa fans which are really good people. :)
 
#33
If he wins 2 more slams then he is tied at 20 with Fed and his superior H2H will act as the tiebreaker. If he wins one more Aus Open, the DCGS will be enough to break the deadlock as well. This is of course assuming Federer doesn't add to his major tally.
Actually, he needs 3 more slams to surpass Federer, provided Fed doesn't win another one. Clearly math is not your strong suit. There is no substitute for wins, so H2H means nothing except that he has the H2H. No one, ever, gave the edge to anyone with less slam totals.
 
#38
If he wins 2 more slams then he is tied at 20 with Fed and his superior H2H will act as the tiebreaker. If he wins one more Aus Open, the DCGS will be enough to break the deadlock as well. This is of course assuming Federer doesn't add to his major tally.
No, even with another AO, that would make 19 < 20.

Rafa needs at least 21 to surpass 20.
 
#40
As a Rafan, he really needs to better Roger's slams to have a legitimate argument. Roger has too many other variables such as weeks at no1, WTF wins etc

If Rafa wins 3 or 4 more slams i would prefer 2 more AO, 1 Wimbledon and 1 US Open. That would give him a better slam distribution percentage and increase his GOAT argument
 
#44
Why does winning another AO count for more than if he won another USO, WB or RG?

Whenever someone tries to discredit Nadal with the argument that he's won too many slams on clay the counter argument is always that a slam is a slam. Doesn't the same logic apply here?
 
#45
Why does winning another AO count for more than if he won another USO, WB or RG?

Whenever someone tries to discredit Nadal with the argument that he's won too many slams on clay the counter argument is always that a slam is a slam. Doesn't the same logic apply here?
I think another AO gives him 2 career Grand Slams.


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#47
H2H is useless dues to surface skew
15 outdoor hard (8-7 to rafa)
6 indoor hard (5-1 to roger)
16 clay (14-2 rafa)
3 grass (2-1 to fed)

It's clear that outdoor hard courts are pretty much even, Fed dominates him on indoor hard almost as much as rafa dominates on clay. Grass is even here but I think everyone would agree if they played 10 matches Fed would be north of 5 wins.

Fed's ability to go deep in clay tournaments and meet rafa meant he hurt his own h2h - rafa has not done a great job getting to the tail-end of indoor hard events/most grass events when fed is there.

Not to mention it's a bad match up for Fed.

GOAT is determined by conditions available at the time more than the player - 2 clay slams a year? Rafa is GOAT, 2 grass slams? Fed is GOAT, WTF on clay? Rafa is GOAT.

Fed doesnt win AO 17 if that court isn't as fast as it was.

They are each so good (Rafa, Fed, and Novak) that whoever gets the tip of favourability in the condiitons will usually win
 

Ann

Hall of Fame
#48
If he wins 2 more slams then he is tied at 20 with Fed and his superior H2H will act as the tiebreaker. If he wins one more Aus Open, the DCGS will be enough to break the deadlock as well. This is of course assuming Federer doesn't add to his major tally.
When future tennis experts analyse their rivalry, the H2h is the first thing they will consider
Future "tennis experts" won't be fanboys from TTW, so no they won't.

You're on ignore.
 
#49
H2H is useless dues to surface skew
15 outdoor hard (8-7 to rafa)
6 indoor hard (5-1 to roger)
16 clay (14-2 rafa)
3 grass (2-1 to fed)

It's clear that outdoor hard courts are pretty much even, Fed dominates him on indoor hard almost as much as rafa dominates on clay. Grass is even here but I think everyone would agree if they played 10 matches Fed would be north of 5 wins.

Fed's ability to go deep in clay tournaments and meet rafa meant he hurt his own h2h - rafa has not done a great job getting to the tail-end of indoor hard events/most grass events when fed is there.

Not to mention it's a bad match up for Fed.

GOAT is determined by conditions available at the time more than the player - 2 clay slams a year? Rafa is GOAT, 2 grass slams? Fed is GOAT, WTF on clay? Rafa is GOAT.

Fed doesnt win AO 17 if that court isn't as fast as it was.

They are each so good (Rafa, Fed, and Novak) that whoever gets the tip of favourability in the condiitons will usually win
You can adjust the H2H to match surface prevalence on the tour, and I think it's been done quite a bit. Nadal -due to the massive clay advantage- retains the H2H lead even after this adjustment. Though H2H is not much of substance in this debate.

I agree that conditions play a substantial role in who would be GOAT, but I would hope we are in agreement that we should use the existent conditions of the tour in the analysis of who is goat.
 
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