Nadal secures the number 1 year end ranking with a win Saturday?

[TennisandMusic]

My math could be way off, but it appears after this tournament Nadal has 675 points to lose, while Federer has 575 he can gain. This is a 1250 potential point swing. However if Nadal wins Saturday he will have gained 550 points over his current lead over Federer for a total lead of 1320 points, assuming Nadal loses in the final to Federer.

So if Nadal wins Saturday has he locked up the year end number 1 ranking, or have I messed up the calculations somehow? No one seems to be mentioning it...

 

[luckyboy1300]

what? nadal has already gained points by reaching the semis, while federer can only points since he's the defending champion.

 

[TennisandMusic]

what? nadal has already gained points by reaching the semis, while federer can only points since he's the defending champion.

Yes that's the point. He's +300 on Federer in terms of where he is at right now. If he gets to the final and loses to Federer he is +550. Which goes along with what I posted...

 

[Well_Played]

My math could be way off, but it appears after this tournament Nadal has 675 points to lose, while Federer has 575 he can gain. This is a 1250 potential point swing. However if Nadal wins Saturday he will have gained 550 points over his current lead over Federer for a total lead of 1320 points, assuming Nadal loses in the final to Federer.

So if Nadal wins Saturday has he locked up the year end number 1 ranking, or have I messed up the calculations somehow? No one seems to be mentioning it...

The problem is not Federer, is Djokovic. If Djokovic wins the US Open and everything else until the end of season he will have 6825 points. If Nadal makes the final and loses everything else, he will have 6575 points. Very unlikely, of course, but answering you're question, no, he won't secure the nº1 position if he reaches the final. But he will be pretty close.

 

[McLovin]

You guys are looking at the wrong numbers. You need to look at the ATP Race, which, according to the ATP site "determines the year-end world No.1 and which eight players qualify for Tennis Masters Cup."

Right now, Nadal is 390 points ahead of Djokovic and 450 ahead of Federer. Presumably, they will all have the same amount after today (I see Djokovic & Federer winning today).

The US is Nadal's 17th tournament, so he has 1 more to add to his total before he starts swapping out for better results.

Djokovic has 1 less than Nadal, so he can add 100 more, but then he starts swapping out for better results.

Federer has 3 less, but there's only 3 major tournaments, The Masters, Paris & Madrid, and he's 450 behind.

Realistically, at this point, I don't think there is anyway Fed or Novak are going to catch him. The most they can gain is 110 in the Open, then 100 in Madrid or Paris (both for Federer). At that point, they start swapping out for other tournaments, so they only improve by the difference, which won't be enough to overtake him.