Nadal should lead the h2h with Djokovic

[SaintPetros]

Nadal avoided so many matches with Djokovic (and Federer) on hard and grass...

They played 44.44% of times on clay, with clay being the surface of only 25% of slams and 28.57% of big tournaments, and no olympic tournament in this era.

How Djokovic can lead the h2h with Nadal despite facing him so many times on clay is truly amazing.

Difference is that Nadal avoiding Federer was a blessing for Fed, not him.

 

[Lew II]

Spoiler: Surface Skew Argument

Surface skew correction can be put into numbers. Extrapolate from existing data the H2H if they had met on each surface proportional to how any events are played on that surface.

Grand slams: 2 HC, 1 clay, 1 grass
WTF: Hard court
Masters 1000: 6 HC, 3 clay.

Hard court: 9/14 Big Titles
Clay: 4/14 Big Titles
Grass: 1/14 Big Titles

Djokovic-Nadal:
Hard court: 19-7
Clay: 7-17
Grass: 2-2

Unskewed:
(19/26) * 54 * 9/14 = 25.37 wins on HC for Djokovic
(7/24) * 54 * 4/14 = 4.5 wins on clay for Djokovic
(1/2) * 54 * 1/14 = 1.93 wins on grass for Djokovic

(7/26) * 54 * 9/14 = 9.35 wins on HC for Nadal
(17/24) * 54 * 4/14 = 10.93 wins on clay for Nadal
(1/2) * 54 * 1/14 = 1.93 wins on grass for Nadal

Total: 31.8 wins for Djokovic - 22.21 wins for Nadal. (58.9% win rate for Djokovic)

Spoiler: Bad Play Skew

Bad play skew (remove the worst year for each player in the rivalry):
2006: 0-1
2007: 2-5
2008: 2-4
2009: 3-4
2010: 0-2
2011: 6-0
2012: 1-3
2013: 3-3
2014: 2-1
2015: 4-0
2016: 3-0
2017: 0-1
2018: 1-1
2019: 1-1

Total matches removed: 8-5 -> H2H is now 20-21 in Rafa's favor.

Spoiler: Both Players in Prime

Rafa: 2005-2013
Djokovic 2008-2016
Overlap: 2008-2013

2008: 2-4
2009: 3-4
2010: 0-2
2011: 6-0
2012: 1-3
2013: 3-3

Total: 15-16 -> Rafa leads by 1 match, (though 13 of them happened on clay.)

There's plenty of ways to spin a H2H.

LOL 2017-19 Nadal (5 slams) not prime while 2008-10 (1 slam) Djokovic is?

2011 Nadal "bad play" reaching 7 consecutive big tournament finals losing them only to Djokovic??

 

[TripleATeam]

LOL 2017-19 Nadal (5 slams) not prime while 2008-10 (1 slam) Djokovic is?

2011 Nadal "bad play" reaching 7 consecutive big tournament finals losing them only to Djokovic??

I don't particularly care to argue on what titles you think those spins should have had. Name them "H2H between 2008 and 2013" and "Remove worst year of H2H for each" and you'll see stats manipulated.

I wasn't trying to say this was a valid way to interpret results, I was trying to say you can make the data say whatever you want them to if you put the right spin on it.

 

[helterskelter]

The fact that he won RG in 2014 doesn't mean he was in his prime or anywhere near it. The real question should be why did prime Djokovic lose to a very average (I'd say even below average) Nadal in RG 2014.

Nadal wasn’t anywhere near as bad as you’re suggesting at RG 2014, plus it was extremely hot that weekend, and Djokovic struggled with the heat. That is why.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Nadal wasn’t anywhere near as bad as you’re suggesting at RG 2014, plus it was extremely hot that weekend, and Djokovic struggled with the heat. That is why.

Nadal's FH-DTL was crispy af during that match

 

[ForumMember]

how many times Djokovic played Nadal between 2005 to 2010? was he avoiding him all this while?

 

[Third Serve]

Difference is that Nadal avoiding Federer was a blessing for Fed, not him.

Untestable, therefore unprovable, therefore irrelevant. @Sport back me up

 

[Backspin1183]

Let's hope he listens to you and leads the head to head again like before. It's just a gap of 2 between them even right now anyway.

 

[Lew II]

I don't particularly care to argue on what titles you think those spins should have had. Name them "H2H between 2008 and 2013" and "Remove worst year of H2H for each" and you'll see stats manipulated.

I wasn't trying to say this was a valid way to interpret results, I was trying to say you can make the data say whatever you want them to if you put the right spin on it.

Stay on topic please.

Tell me what do you think is wrong with the surface skew I showed in the OP.

 

[Lew II]

how many times Djokovic played Nadal between 2005 to 2010? was he avoiding him all this while?

23 times. A lot.

Nadal was ranked higher than Djokovic in 34 of their 54 matches overall.

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

23 times. A lot.

Nadal was ranked higher than Djokovic in 34 of their 54 matches overall.

I'm always a little confused by this sentiment. Which metric shows how good the player is? Their average world ranking in the matches of a h2h or the h2h itself? Your statement seems to posit the concepts as diametrically opposed as quality descriptors.

 

[TripleATeam]

Stay on topic please.

Tell me what do you think is wrong with the surface skew I showed in the OP.

I am on topic. I'm saying you can manipulate H2H however you want to make a point. Yes, Djokovic would lead by more if clay was less prevalent in the H2H. He wouldn't lead at all if Nadal hadn't played in 2011. If you remove every other match, Djokovic would lead by even more.

It's a good thing to note that so many of the matches are on clay, but remember that they could have had even more matches back in 2006/07 when Nadal was going 1-1 with Djokovic on grass and hard, then the argument would be "baby Djokovic skew" not surface skew.

 

[Lew II]

I am on topic. I'm saying you can manipulate H2H however you want to make a point. Yes, Djokovic would lead by more if clay was less prevalent in the H2H. He wouldn't lead at all if Nadal hadn't played in 2011. If you remove every other match, Djokovic would lead by even more.

It's a good thing to note that so many of the matches are on clay, but remember that they could have had even more matches back in 2006/07 when Nadal was going 1-1 with Djokovic on grass and hard, then the argument would be "baby Djokovic skew" not surface skew.

Yes there are different ways of analyzing h2hs.

Some make sense and some don't.

 

[junior74]

Kyrgios should lead the h2h with Djokovic, because - oh, wait...

 

[MichaelNadal]

Kyrgios should lead the h2h with Djokovic, because - oh, wait...