Nadal - Top 10 Player

[Rafaforehand74]

It is probably really obvious but I just wanted to check.

Is it feasible for Nadal to remain in the top 10 despite his season being over? Is it a given that he loses his top 10 status by the end of the season?

Many thanks.

 

[gjm127]

Nadal will remain in the top-15 this year

He will finish with 2985 points, I think that's a little short of past years' #10s cumulative YE points.

 

[clayqueen]

It depends on how well the players outside the top 10 in the race do between now and the WTF. i.e Sinner and below.

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ATP Men Tennis race projection for next week

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[Kralingen]

It is likely Rafa will be out of the top 10 by AO 22.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

It is likely Rafa will be out of the top 10 by AO 22.

For the first time since the introduction of the personal computer.

 

[DjokoLand]

Nadal never dropped out of the top 10 due to the fact he could turn up for 2 months a season and gain the points he needs to stay there.
It’s actually a complement to Nadal as it shows how good he is on Clay.
This is the season it probably ends though which in the ends doesn’t mean anything

 

[James P]

Nadal will stay top-10. You can't look at the ATP Race to figure out his YE ranking points. His points will look like:

5,815 (currently) - 180 (Indian Wells) - 360 (Paris) - 400 (ATP Finals) = 4,875

There's a chance Berrettini passes him and pushes him to #8, but barring a double Masters run by someone else behind him, he's virtually a lock for #7 or #8.

(Edit: He could, in theory, finish outside of the top 10 in Year End ranking (I worded that poorly), but as far as staying in the top 10, he's a lock to stay in the top 10, although I do think it's possible to finish as low as perhaps #10. #7 or #8 is more likely, though.)

 

[The Blond Blur]

It’s going to be really tough to put himself in there (he’s not Zedrot) when he’s missed half the year.

But even if he falls outside the top 10 for the first time since 2005 it’s no big deal. According to TTW experts, being in the top 10 is only journeyman status

 

[Jonesy]

There will be a good chance to see a Djokodal AO encounter this time.

 

[Sunny014]

Nadal is an injured man who plays Tennis.
Outside the clay season he is human who can be injured, as soon as he steps on red clay he becomes Superman, then when he leaves clay season he become mortal again.
Hence someone who is so good during a particular season every year has been in top 10 every year at the very least, not surprising

 

[Kralingen]

Here’s my honest thoughts on his ranking - it shouldn’t be a big deal but does have the potential to cause trouble for him at the FO 2021. Here’s why:

let’s say he’s 9th-12th post AO (I’m assuming he doesn’t make a miracle recovery and make the AO final for example).

Rafa will definitely want one of the top 8 seeds for the French Open and thus will schedule MC, Barca, Madrid, Rome in efforts to obtain the top 8 seed. the thing is he’s going to be losing a ton of points if he doesn’t defend Barca, Madrid, or Rome. I don’t want him overplaying on that foot but he may be forced to. Bad idea.

Of course if he wins even one of those he should get back to top 8, and if he can’t win any.. maybe he doesn’t have the clay form to win Roland Garros anyway.

either way going into RG we could see a really tough draw for him as the 9 seed.

something like: 4R Thiem, QF Tsitsipas, SF Zverev, F Djokovic. yeah he’s better than them, when he’s peak Rafa, but I worry the stamina issues in Bo5 could really tire him out and leave him vulnerable for a potential final.

of course it could also be QF Rublev SF Ruud F Tsitsipas which presents less issue. Obviously the draw matters quite a bit. The point is getting a top 8 seed is crucial for the FO, even if he is great form, his stamina is the biggest limiting factor currently.

 

[James P]

Here’s my honest thoughts on his ranking - it shouldn’t be a big deal but does have the potential to cause trouble for him at the FO 2021. Here’s why:

let’s say he’s 9th-12th post AO (I’m assuming he doesn’t make a miracle recovery and make the AO final for example).

Rafa will definitely want one of the top 8 seeds for the French Open and thus will schedule MC, Barca, Madrid, Rome in efforts to obtain the top 8 seed. the thing is he’s going to be losing a ton of points if he doesn’t defend Barca, Madrid, or Rome. I don’t want him overplaying on that foot but he may be forced to. Bad idea.

Of course if he wins even one of those he should get back to top 8, and if he can’t win any.. maybe he doesn’t have the clay form to win Roland Garros anyway.

either way going into RG we could see a really tough draw for him as the 9 seed.

something like: 4R Thiem, QF Tsitsipas, SF Zverev, F Djokovic. yeah he’s better than them, when he’s peak Rafa, but I worry the stamina issues in Bo5 could really tire him out and leave him vulnerable for a potential final.

of course it could also be QF Rublev SF Ruud F Tsitsipas which presents less issue. Obviously the draw matters quite a bit. The point is getting a top 8 seed is crucial for the FO, even if he is great form, his stamina is the biggest limiting factor currently.

Things to keep in mind...

Nadal is defending a ton for clay season: Rome (1,000), Barcelona (500), Monte Carlo (180), and Madrid (180) =1,860 [not including RG]
He's also defending 500 (@ Acapulco) and 250 (@ ATP Cup). His 360 QF points at the Australian Open might even be a tough defense.

Dominic Thiem is guaranteed to start the season at the highest as #12 in the world and is defending an AO final right off the bat. He's actually in a worse position than Nadal in many ways, although I assume he will have an easier recovery process. Incidentally, Federer will at the highest start as #13 next season

 

[goldengate14]

Best thing for Nadal is to be out of the top 10 come Roland Garros. He would not be favourite and would be written off and in that scenario on clay he would be very hard to stop as he wpuld be more relaxed. He has always got rid of nerves when with a point to prove.
he would be wise to not play until acapulco next season . Australia anyway is a no go area now

 

[itrium84]

It is probably really obvious but I just wanted to check.

Is it feasible for Nadal to remain in the top 10 despite his season being over? Is it a given that he loses his top 10 status by the end of the season?

Many thanks.

He's top top10 player regardless

 

[clayqueen]

Nadal will stay top-10. You can't look at the ATP Race to figure out his YE ranking points. His points will look like:

5,815 (currently) - 180 (Indian Wells) - 360 (Paris) - 400 (ATP Finals) = 4,875

There's a chance Berrettini passes him and pushes him to #8, but barring a double Masters run by someone else behind him, he's virtually a lock for #7 or #8.

(Edit: He could, in theory, finish outside of the top 10 in Year End ranking (I worded that poorly), but as far as staying in the top 10, he's a lock to stay in the top 10, although I do think it's possible to finish as low as perhaps #10. #7 or #8 is more likely, though.)

Thanks for clearing this up. I did wonder what effect the COVID rules on dropping would have on the cumulative rankings. With the Covid situation the Race ranking is purely for qualification for the WTF.

 

[WarriorRafa]

Nadal will stay top-10. You can't look at the ATP Race to figure out his YE ranking points. His points will look like:

5,815 (currently) - 180 (Indian Wells) - 360 (Paris) - 400 (ATP Finals) = 4,875

There's a chance Berrettini passes him and pushes him to #8, but barring a double Masters run by someone else behind him, he's virtually a lock for #7 or #8.

(Edit: He could, in theory, finish outside of the top 10 in Year End ranking (I worded that poorly), but as far as staying in the top 10, he's a lock to stay in the top 10, although I do think it's possible to finish as low as perhaps #10. #7 or #8 is more likely, though.)

Im confused. If he falls out of Top 10 in the race, wouldnt he still be out of the Top 10 when next season starts?

 

[Nadal_King]

I think he stays in top 10 as not much tennis to played for rest of the season. If he returns at Ao then if he can defend ao points will be agood start. He has to play atleast one of Iw/Miami next year if possible both as he can get good points there before Clay season where he defends a lot although MC is first clay event so winning there which could mean gaining 800 points which would really help him jump alot for rest of clay season. Although it's all on paper in reality you don't know what it will turn out as if he isn't the same player post injury then things will be tough even on clay but if he recovers his form atleast 70-80% like 2019-2020 then whatever the ranking he will be a force especially on clay

 

[weakera]

He will almost certainly remain in the top-10 when factoring in the COVID protections. He will need to come back early next season to avoid falling out in 2022 however.

 

[InsideOut900]

Im confused. If he falls out of Top 10 in the race, wouldnt he still be out of the Top 10 when next season starts?

Some Covid points are still active.

For instance Federer is 68 in race, but can end no 13 at worst from what I read. He still has full points from AO 20 and points from IW and Miami 2019.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Some Covid points are still active.

For instance Federer is 68 in race, but can end no 13 at worst from what I read. He still has full points from AO 20 and points from IW and Miami 2019.

That is absolutely ridiculous lol

 

[Bubcay]

Best thing for Nadal is to be out of the top 10 come Roland Garros. He would not be favourite and would be written off and in that scenario on clay he would be very hard to stop as he wpuld be more relaxed. He has always got rid of nerves when with a point to prove.
he would be wise to not play until acapulco next season . Australia anyway is a no go area now

Australia is opening up way before the AO. Things will look completely different here in January. So, I don't see anyone who is healthy enough missing it. Back to the topic. If Nadal is fully recovered by the beginning of the 2022, he will get where he needs to be by RG, I have no doubt about it. He is just too good for most of the guys on the tour. I would really love to see Nadal vs Djokovic at RG one more time, hopefully in the final.

 

[clayqueen]

If Rafa is fully recovered and he has few niggles then I'm not worried about his comeback.

 

[goldengate14]

Australia is opening up way before the AO. Things will look completely different here in January. So, I don't see anyone who is healthy enough missing it. Back to the topic. If Nadal is fully recovered by the beginning of the 2022, he will get where he needs to be by RG, I have no doubt about it. He is just too good for most of the guys on the tour. I would really love to see Nadal vs Djokovic at RG one more time, hopefully in the final.

Rafa wants Djokovic at Rg big time. Rafa will bagel and breadstick him it would be brutal. Waitimg for that match

 

[James P]

Im confused. If he falls out of Top 10 in the race, wouldnt he still be out of the Top 10 when next season starts?

No.

There's the YE rankings (based off of ATP Race points) which aren't rankings at all, but will determine who earns YE#1, YE#2, and so on.

Then there's the regular (covid affected) rankings. Those are the real rankings. Nadal will not finish outside of the top 10 there.

 

[Bubcay]

Rafa wants Djokovic at Rg big time. Rafa will bagel and breadstick him it would be brutal. Waitimg for that match

Not sure I agree with you on the outcome . But looking forward to the match nevertheless. Whoever wins, it would be an epic one.