Nadal's results on HC in 2009, supposedly his worst year
Win - Aussie Open, Indian Wells
RU - Shanghai MS, Rotterdam 500
SF - US Open, Cincinnati, Paris Masters, Beijing
QF - Miami, Canada, Doha
Nadal didn't lose before the QF of any HC event. The only season of his career where he managed such a feat. And this is supposedly his 'worse year'.
Now let's look at the records of Nadal on HC, and see if 2009 was actually his 'worst year'.
Nadal 2009 - 42-12 (.778) - won AO, IW; RU Shanghai, Rotterdam; SF US Open, Beijing, Cincy, Paris, QF Miami, Canada, Doha
Nadal 2008 - 45-10 (.818) - won Canada, Olympic Gold; RU Miami, Chennai; SF US Open, AO, IW, Cincy; QF Paris, Dubai
Nadal 2007 - 31-12 (.721) - Won IW; RU Paris; SF Canada, YEC; QF AO, Dubai
Nadal 2006 - 25-10 (.714) - won Dubai; SF IW, YEC; QF USO, Cincy
Nadal 2005 - 30-7 (.811) - won Madrid, Canada, Beijing; RU Miami
So in Nadal's supposed 'worst year', he was able to post the 2nd most wins of his career on HC, be more consistent on the surface than ever before in his career, and oh yeah, win the only HC slam of his career. Go figure.
Nadal was consistent on HC, but once he ran into the big dogs he lost. That was the case last year, and remained the case earlier this year. We shall see if the story changes in Canada and Cincy.
The only point that I was making is that as of right now, given a) Nadal's recent history against top guys on HC and b) Nadal's career history against top 10 guys at Flushing Meadows (0-3) it is premature to say he is the clear and definite favorite to take the title at a place where he's never made the final, never beaten a top 10 player, and prior to last year had never beaten a top 20 player at. That is all.