# Nadal wins 2 more matches and is guaranteed YEC.....

##### Hall of Fame
Why do I keep hearing this?? They kept on saying it on Prime coverage last night....My maths tells me different but maybe I am missing something???

Apparently you get extra points for going undefeated??

Why do the points seem to confuse everyone at this stage of the year??!

#### TripleATeam

##### G.O.A.T.
Why do I keep hearing this?? They kept on saying it on Prime coverage last night....My maths tells me different but maybe I am missing something???

Apparently you get extra points for going undefeated??

Why do the points seem to confuse everyone at this stage of the year??!

2 RR wins puts him at 9985 points. Djokovic entered the WTF at 8945 points and can now earn a maximum of 1300 points, putting him at 10245. Since 10245 > 9985, the announcers were wrong.

3 more wins for Nadal guarantees him the YE#1, though.

##### Hall of Fame
2 RR wins puts him at 9985 points. Djokovic entered the WTF at 8945 points and can now earn a maximum of 1300 points, putting him at 10245. Since 10245 > 9985, the announcers were wrong.

3 more wins for Nadal guarantees him the YE#1, though.
That is what I thought.....However I kept hearing on Prime Coverage and another podcast that if he wins 2 matches he is guaranteed YEC...Anyway I agree with you!

#### ForumMember

##### Hall of Fame
Nadal comes in tournament with lead of 640 points. After RR he can take that to max of 1040 now.

Djokovic reached SF he would have 400 out of that 1040 erased. If he wins SF, he would have 800 of that 1040 erased. If he wins final, he would have all of that erased with some surplus points.

If Nadal doesn't win any of the RR matches - Novak needs just to reach final YEC is his.
If Nadal wins any of the remaining two matches - Novak needs to win tournament to get YEC
If Nadal wins SF - Novak can't get YEC

These are all the combinations you need to know.

#### TearTheRoofOff

##### Legend
In short: Bamos Federer.

#### ForumMember

##### Hall of Fame
Damn.. with new DP, I am struggling to recognize my own posts

Vamos Roger

#### RaulRamirez

##### Legend
As of now, if Novak wins the tournament, Rafa has to get to the final (but not win it) to be YE#1.

If Rafa does not win any group matches, Novak has to get to the final - but not win it - to take YE#1.

If Rafa simply wins one (or two) group matches, he is safe unless Novak wins out.

#### Topspin_80

##### Rookie
Nadal doesn't really need to win any match, as long as Federer beats Djokovic.

If Federer beats Djokovic, would secure Nadal's #1, and probably would go on to win the ATP Finals.

If Nadal takes the #1, all 3 would have 5 eoy #1

If Djokovic takes it, then it'd be Nadal 4, Federer 5, and Djokovic 6.

No doubt Federer prefers Nadal before Djokovic.

Btw, does Djokovic have fans outside the Balkans, or outside Balkanic folks?

#### Backspin1183

##### G.O.A.T.
That's what the ATP official website also says.

#### StrongRule

##### G.O.A.T.
Nadal doesn't really need to win any match, as long as Federer beats Djokovic.

If Federer beats Djokovic, would secure Nadal's #1, and probably would go on to win the ATP Finals.

If Nadal takes the #1, all 3 would have 5 eoy #1

If Djokovic takes it, then it'd be Nadal 4, Federer 5, and Djokovic 6.

No doubt Federer prefers Nadal before Djokovic.

Btw, does Djokovic have fans outside the Balkans, or outside Balkanic folks?
Federer isn't beating Djokovic, come on now. He can't beat him since 2015.

#### Topspin_80

##### Rookie
Federer isn't beating Djokovic, come on now. He can't beat him since 2015.
If you ask me, I see a 65% Djokovic, 35% Federer, but then Djokovic just lost a match he shoulda won.
Therefore, any scenario is possible.
And then Federer, as you said didn't beat Djokovic since 2015, but then, that last win came in a RR of the ATP Finals,
Federer is nowadays at his best, indoor best of 3.

#### UnderratedSlam

##### Legend
Considering Nadal's incredibly poor form, it is moot to discuss what Nadal needs to do to be YE1.

It's all about whether Djokovic wins it. Nadal might not even win one match, playing like that.

#### Sport

##### G.O.A.T.
If you ask me, I see a 65% Djokovic, 35% Federer, but then Djokovic just lost a match he shoulda won.
What? No, Djokovic shouldn't "have won" the match. Thiem was playing better and Djokovic was merely surviving to his attacks and backhand winners.

If anything, Thiem should have won earlier, as he choked when he was serving for the match and leading 5-4 in the final set.

#### UnderratedSlam

##### Legend
What? No, Djokovic shouldn't "have won" the match. Thiem was playing better and Djokovic merely surviving to his attacks and backhand winners.

If anything, Thiem should have won earlier, as he choked when he was serving for the match and leading 5-4 in the final set.
3rd set tie-break matches rarely have a clear winner. This "should have won" nonsense only makes sense if a player throws away 5 MPs or something...

#### jhhachamp

##### Hall of Fame
Nadal comes in tournament with lead of 640 points. After RR he can take that to max of 1040 now.

Djokovic reached SF he would have 400 out of that 1040 erased. If he wins SF, he would have 800 of that 1040 erased. If he wins final, he would have all of that erased with some surplus points.

If Nadal doesn't win any of the RR matches - Novak needs just to reach final YEC is his.
If Nadal wins any of the remaining two matches - Novak needs to win tournament to get YEC
If Nadal wins SF - Novak can't get YEC

These are all the combinations you need to know.
The last one isn't necessarily true. If Nadal goes 1-2 in the round robin matches and wins the semi (it is possible for him to make the semi going 1-2), then Djokovic can still pass him by winning the final.

#### OhYes

##### Legend
Btw, does Djokovic have fans outside the Balkans, or outside Balkanic folks?
No. Only from Croatia.

#### BeatlesFan

##### Bionic Poster
but then Djokovic just lost a match he shoulda won.
You must not have watched the match. Thiem bludgeoned a well-playing Novak off the court. Thiem shoulda won the match much earlier than he did, that's the actual story of the match.

#### JaoSousa

##### Hall of Fame
3rd set tie-break matches rarely have a clear winner. This "should have won" nonsense only makes sense if a player throws away 5 MPs or something...
Or 2MPs. On serve.

#### UnderratedSlam

##### Legend
was a big one IIRC
?

I hope you're not all implying RF's 40-15 coz that isn't a bestof3... I wuz talking about 3rd set tie-breaks in bestof3s...

#### Rafa24

##### Hall of Fame
so whats the latest now since nadal pulled off that miracle? djoker has to win the tourney to get year end number 1 correct?

#### abmk

##### Bionic Poster
So now, Djokovic is 640 points behind Nadal.
1 RR win = 200 points
SF win = 400 points
F win = 500 points

If djokovic wins it, he will get 1100 points, so Nadal has to win his RR match (200 points) and semi (400 Points) to get 600 points. which would make the difference = 640+600-1100 = 140 points

Edit : Djoko Has to win the YEC and Nadal not make the final for Djoko to get YE#1

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#### crazyups

##### Professional
So now, Djokovic is 640 points behind Nadal.
1 RR win = 200 points
SF win = 400 points

Has to win the YEC and Nadal has to lose his 3rd RR match for Djoko to get YE#1
Very interesting!

#### Sport

##### G.O.A.T.
So now, Djokovic is 640 points behind Nadal.
1 RR win = 200 points
SF win = 400 points

Has to win the YEC and Nadal has to lose his 3rd RR match for Djoko to get YE#1
Doesn't Nadal need to reach the final in case Djokovic wins the event?

D

#### Deleted member 763691

##### Guest
So now, Djokovic is 640 points behind Nadal.
1 RR win = 200 points
SF win = 400 points

Has to win the YEC and Nadal has to lose his 3rd RR match for Djoko to get YE#1
Rafa has to lose his 3rd RR?
Wait, are you saying if Rafa beats Tsitsipas then its impossible for Djokovic to finish #1?

#### I Am Finnish

##### Talk Tennis Guru
Djokovic has less than 30%

Nah 45%

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#### aman92

##### Hall of Fame
Rafa has to lose his 3rd RR?
Wait, are you saying if Rafa beats Tsitsipas then its impossible for Djokovic to finish #1?
Djokovic basically needs to win all his matches to have a chance, Nadal needs to reach the final to guarantee No 1

##### Legend
Btw, does Djokovic have fans outside the Balkans, or outside Balkanic folks?
Have you never watched tournaments in Asia? Novak has big support there.

#### abmk

##### Bionic Poster
Doesn't Nadal need to reach the final in case Djokovic wins the event?
yeah, you are right. Corrected.

Very interesting!
I made a mistake. Check the updated one.

#### jm1980

##### G.O.A.T.
So now, Djokovic is 640 points behind Nadal.
1 RR win = 200 points
SF win = 400 points
F win = 500 points

Edit : Djoko Has to win the YEC and Nadal not make the final for Djoko to get YE#1
Here are the remaining scenarios:

Djokovic has to win all his matches and hope Nadal loses one more match before the final

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#### xFedal

##### Legend
Here are the remaining scenarios:

Djokovic has to win all his matches and hope Nadal loses one more match
If Nadal wins next RR and Semi Match thats enough for him?

#### abmk

##### Bionic Poster
Here are the remaining scenarios:

Djokovic has to win all his matches and hope Nadal loses one more match before the final
Yeah, that looks right.

#### TennisFan3

##### G.O.A.T.
Here are the remaining scenarios:

Djokovic has to win all his matches and hope Nadal loses one more match
Great post. If Novak does NOT win the tournament, Nadal will be #1.

But If Djoker wins the tournament, even if Nadal wins his 2nd RR match, he has to win the SF ALSO to ENSURE Novak does NOT end #1.

So Nadal has to effectively win his next 2 matches - if he does NOT - then he needs to hope for Novak to NOT win the tournament.

#### I Am Finnish

##### Talk Tennis Guru
Djokovic basically needs to win all his matches to have a chance, Nadal needs to reach the final to guarantee No 1
Thanks

#### Rina

##### Professional
There is analysis on ATPs site. Basically Novak needs to win it all, and Nadal cannot make the final in order for Novak to end as no. 1. I am not sure if I am reading this right? So if they both end up in the final, Nadal is no 1 even if Novak wins?!
Year-End No. 1 Scenarios
- Nadal finishes No. 1 if he reaches the final or Djokovic does not win the title
- Djokovic finishes No. 1 if he wins the title AND Nadal does not reach the final

#### Topspin_80

##### Rookie
You must not have watched the match. Thiem bludgeoned a well-playing Novak off the court. Thiem shoulda won the match much earlier than he did, that's the actual story of the match.
Yes, I did watch the match.
I do like Thiem, I don't like Djokovic, I hope that is clear.
But just because I don't like Djokovic, that doesn't mean I don't acknowledge his level or his achievements.
Or just because I like Thiem, I make him favorite over Djokovic on slow hard court and indoor on top of that.
Djokovic has won many top tournaments, masters and atp finals, whereas Thiem has won none.
So, for me Djokovic was the favorite, but then thing didn't work out for him, and Thiem played a wonderful match.
And now Djokovic is gonna play Federer, and in my book, Djokovic is favorite, and I still don't like him.
Who knows Federer might beat him, but the bookmakers have Djokovic as the favorite.
And that is what I meant when I said he shoulda won, not because the merits he made on court.

#### Lleytonstation

##### G.O.A.T.
None of this matters since Fed will win tomorrow.

#### Lebsta

##### Rookie
The chase for YE#1 ends tomorrow if Fed wins. Best case for him to halt Djokovic overtaking his 310 weeks @1. (Personally I think Djokovic will overtake him regardless of what happens this week)

The best case for Rafa really is for Roger to win tomorrow. Rafa's level is not good enough to get to the final let alone win it. He got battered by Zverev and 100% should've lost today. It was both a miracle and a major choke.

I guess the Medvedev hype train has finally come to a halt now.

#### ForumMember

##### Hall of Fame
There is analysis on ATPs site. Basically Novak needs to win it all, and Nadal cannot make the final in order for Novak to end as no. 1. I am not sure if I am reading this right? So if they both end up in the final, Nadal is no 1 even if Novak wins?!
Year-End No. 1 Scenarios
- Nadal finishes No. 1 if he reaches the final or Djokovic does not win the title
- Djokovic finishes No. 1 if he wins the title AND Nadal does not reach the final
yes,, if Nadal reaches final.. Djoko not getting #1. Resukt of final would be immaterial.

#### kailash

##### Professional
Federer isn't beating Djokovic, come on now. He can't beat him since 2015.
This WTF tournament is full of surprises. Why not? Fed can beat Djokovic.

#### TennisFan3

##### G.O.A.T.
None of this matters since Fed will win tomorrow.
Wishful thinking. Novak is heavily favored. Anything other than a straight sets Djokovic win, would be a big upset.

#### Zara

##### Legend
Sorry but it will only be decided once I decide and I have decided today.

#### jm1980

##### G.O.A.T.
There is analysis on ATPs site. Basically Novak needs to win it all, and Nadal cannot make the final in order for Novak to end as no. 1. I am not sure if I am reading this right? So if they both end up in the final, Nadal is no 1 even if Novak wins?!
Year-End No. 1 Scenarios
- Nadal finishes No. 1 if he reaches the final or Djokovic does not win the title
- Djokovic finishes No. 1 if he wins the title AND Nadal does not reach the final
yes,, if Nadal reaches final.. Djoko not getting #1. Resukt of final would be immaterial.
This is partially correct, but it missed one possible (albeit rare) scenario where a 1-2 Nadal makes it into the final. In this case, a Djokovic win over Nadal would give him the title and the YE #1.

There is also an interesting possibility where Nadal somehow wins his group, giving Novak the chance to play him in the semi.
Djokovic would obviously still have to win all his remaining matches.

#### wangs78

##### Hall of Fame
I think Fed will beat Djokovic in the RR. It will be a repeat of RG 2011, when Fed stopped the Djokovic 40+ winning streak cold and I think that is where the finger wag first started. Vamos Roger!

#### jm1980

##### G.O.A.T.
Great post. If Novak does NOT win the tournament, Nadal will be #1.

But If Djoker wins the tournament, even if Nadal wins his 2nd RR match, he has to win the SF ALSO to ENSURE Novak does NOT end #1.

So Nadal has to effectively win his next 2 matches - if he does NOT - then he needs to hope for Novak to NOT win the tournament.
Yes - this puts Nadal firmly in the driver's seat. He can afford to lose his next match(es) and still end up YE #1. Djokovic has zero margin for error