Nadal's Draw 2010 vs 2013

Finesse4sum

Semi-Pro
2010 US Open

1st round Gabashvili - highest rank 59 (2009)
2nd round Istomin - highest rank 33 (2012)
3rd round Simon - highest rank 6 (2009)
4th round Lopez - highest rank 15 (2012)
QF round Verdasco - highest rank 7 (2009)
SF round Youzhny - highest rank 8 (2008)
F round Djokovic - highest rank 1 (2013)

There were 2 seeds knocked out that would have potentially played Nadal. Ljubicic was the number 15 losing to the Qualifier Harrison. Andy Murray losing to Wawrinka in 4 sets after winning the first. Ljubicic probably wouldnt have given much of a fight to Nadal considering Harrison took him out.

Murray lost to a quality opponent in Wawrinka and even with his 2010 AO Final - 09 and 010 were bad years Slam results wise for Murray. The only thing that essentially made Nadal's USO win easier (based on the draw and the seeds) is that Verdasco had to comeback in 5 sets over Ferrer. We're talking 2 tie breaks and a 7-5 against a grinder type. If a fresher Verdasco couldnt beat Nadal at AO a 5 setter in the previous round sealed his fate.

He beat Djokovic in the final and played all supposed seeds except for Ljubicic and Murray. Murray would have folded worse here than at Wimby that year. Nadal's 2010 USO win is legitimate no matter what people say.


2013 US Open

1st round Harrison highest 43
2nd round Dutra Silva highest 84
3rd round Dodig highest 32
4th round Isner (possible opponent) highest 9
QF round Federer (possible opponent) highest 1
SF round Ferrer (possible opponent) highest 4
F round Djokovic/Murray (possible opponents) highest 1/2

Only 1-1 between Nadal and Dodig but Dodig had to win that match in 2 tiebreaks after losing the first. Might be a harder match than people expect.
Isner is NOT going to beat Nadal. He's only good for getting the set to tiebreaks. Nadal will guard AD side points very well and Isner's serve will break down even if its at the very last moment of the set. Nadal has a 11-0 record against Raonic, Isner, and Karlovic regardless of surface.

Federer has the best chance of beating Nadal of all other potential opponents with a chance of like 10 percent max. With that said he hasn't beaten Nadal in BO5 since 2007 Wimby. At least Fed will give a better match than Murray would have as a SF opponent. And Ferrer we all know the story there. He'll fight to win some points but I predict no sets for him.

If Murray makes the final Nadal will show us why Murray's slam titles are of even more opportunistic quality than any supposed cake draw's for the other 3 players. If Djoker comes out ready to go and his shotmaking is clicking I give him 45 percent chance of beating Nadal. Nadal's serve this year has been rated too high and good returning from Djoker will bring Nadal back to Earth.
 
His 2013 draw is actually much harder on paper than his 2010 one. It's a good thing he has also become a much better player!
 
If it all comes through 2013 should be the toughest....it is stupid to compare it to the joke of the draw 2010 was!
 
Yup Ralph has a habit of getting joke draws on his worst slam surfaces, he isn't talented enough to win USO playing Murray and Djoker back to back. USO 2010 and 13 are pretty much the same difficulty wise.(the lackof it)
 
Take away Ralph and tell us something about you hero's draw you joker.

Both Rafa and Roger have joke draws aside from eachother. But prime Nadal is obviously worse of Federer than 32 year old Federer is for Nadal...
 
The hardest draw that I could see according to current rankings and who entered the tournament (I dont know exactly how seeds work down to rank 32 in terms of facing the top 4) without facing djoker before the final

3rd round Gulbis
4th round Haas/ JJ
QF round Delpo
SF round Murray
F round Djokovic

With that said does Nadal need "extra" form for the 2 best hard courters in perceived slumps? Has he peaked too early? Or will the saved energy from breezing through round 1-4, medium intensity to beat Fed, and absolute autopilot for Ferrer give Nadal an upperhand vs the serb/brit?

I think Delpo losing early will save the tournament somehow and make the final at least exciting. Can Dolgo, Haas, or Youhzny do it though?
 
The hardest draw that I could see according to current rankings and who entered the tournament (I dont know exactly how seeds work down to rank 32 in terms of facing the top 4) without facing djoker before the final

3rd round Gulbis
4th round Haas/ JJ
QF round Delpo
SF round Murray
F round Djokovic

With that said does Nadal need "extra" form for the 2 best hard courters in perceived slumps? Has he peaked too early? Or will the saved energy from breezing through round 1-4, medium intensity to beat Fed, and absolute autopilot for Ferrer give Nadal an upperhand vs the serb/brit?

I think Delpo losing early will save the tournament somehow and make the final at least exciting. Can Dolgo, Haas, or Youhzny do it though?
 
His draw could have been much harder for sure and I'm glad you agree with me that the definition of a hard draw at this USO is Delpo/Murray back to back in quarter/semi, something I've said from before the draw was known. You're wrong about Haas though. Rafa has no problem with him, very good matchup. JJ turned out to be a non issue here as you know.
 
The hardest draw that I could see according to current rankings and who entered the tournament (I dont know exactly how seeds work down to rank 32 in terms of facing the top 4) without facing djoker before the final

3rd round Gulbis
4th round Haas/ JJ
QF round Delpo
SF round Murray
F round Djokovic

With that said does Nadal need "extra" form for the 2 best hard courters in perceived slumps? Has he peaked too early? Or will the saved energy from breezing through round 1-4, medium intensity to beat Fed, and absolute autopilot for Ferrer give Nadal an upperhand vs the serb/brit?

I think Delpo losing early will save the tournament somehow and make the final at least exciting. Can Dolgo, Haas, or Youhzny do it though?

Why is JJ mentioned here in the 4th round :shock: The guy lost to 200+ ranked player and is no threat to any decent player. It is unbelievable how much is he overhyped here. Unbelievable.
 
Mark my words - Nadal is NOT winning the USO.

Yeah, he'll beat Fed, and yes, he'll reach the final. But he won't win it. So close, yet so far.
 
Mark my words - Nadal is NOT winning the USO.

Yeah, he'll beat Fed, and yes, he'll reach the final. But he won't win it. So close, yet so far.

I agree with this. There is no way Nadal is going to win another USO including this one. Cakewalk or not.
The one in 2010 is more than enough for him.
 
His draw could have been much harder for sure and I'm glad you agree with me that the definition of a hard draw at this USO is Delpo/Murray back to back in quarter/semi, something I've said from before the draw was known. You're wrong about Haas though. Rafa has no problem with him, very good matchup. JJ turned out to be a non issue here as you know.

I understand what your saying. With that said in my opinion a Baseliner or a All courter will always have a better chance against Nadal than a big server with a more dominant forehand. Without a short ball or good positioning during the rally the forehand is neutralized much of the time.

Th only guys of note that have beaten Nadal at slams are power or flat hitting types - Blake, Rosol, Soderling, and Delpo Ferrer and Murray beat Nadal with ground game on the day but out of the whole tour Djoker is the only one who can keep up with Nadal physically and groundstroke wise.

You guys can burn me for the JJ thing but potentially 1 in 100 matches (like most of the others that upset Nadal over the years) he could have a Rosol/ Soderling like match against Nadal. All he has to do is stop overusing the dropshot, make his serve percentage higher like delpo/berd and a little bit more margin on those shots. That match against Nadal in montreal he had a serving yip much of the time. He has to stop mimicking Raonic.
 
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