Nadal's Final Slam Count

How many slams will Nadal have when he retires?

  • Less than 19

  • 19

  • 20

  • 21

  • 22

  • 23

  • 24

  • 25

  • 26

  • More than 26


Results are only viewable after voting.

TennisBatman

Semi-Pro
Just for fun...

Considering that some people in this forum bring up posts from years ago, I will plant this seed today!


"Tennis is all about dedication, motivation and the will to win."
- Rafael Nadal

Also see the below:
Djokovic's Final Slam Count
Federer's Final Slam Count


 
Last edited:

TennisBatman

Semi-Pro
Optimistic Forecast:

Nadal will win 3 of the next 4 titles at the French Open. During those 4 years, he will take 2 of the 12 titles at the other grand slams. That would put his slam total at 24, and he would be 37 years old.


Pessimistic Forecast:

Nadal will win 1 of the next 2 titles at the French Open and no other slams. That would put his slam total at 20, and he would be 35 years old.
 

TennisBatman

Semi-Pro
Can you check how many slams have been won by males after age 34? Can't think of any recently besides Fed and maybe Agassi.
Good point.

But how old is Tom Brady, and how hard is it to win a Super Bowl as a starting QB compared to winning a grand slam?
 

TennisBatman

Semi-Pro
More thoughts...

It will mostly come down to Nadal's ability to play into "old age", and his ability to deal with new competitors at the French Open--namely, Thiem and Djokovic.

If Nadal can be the Tom Brady of tennis, then the higher end of numbers in my poll will not be unrealistic.
 
Can you check how many slams have been won by males after age 34? Can't think of any recently besides Fed and maybe Agassi.
I think in the Open Era, it's only Rosewall (3 slams), Federer (3 slams) and Gimeno (1 slam) who have won slams after their 34th birthday.
 
Lets analyse each slam
Ao- This place he has been most unlicky in his career and I feel he is bound to win once more there given all things fall in place.So I would say 1 more,most probably 2020 or 2021
Fo- This is his place literally and any number is possible but realistically 2 more is a safe or 3 if body holds up.
Wimbledon- This is where I think he chances are least to win another but he has had good results in last 2 years but still think he may not win here again.
Us open- Clearly his 2nd best slam and I think courts here suit his game well so I think 1 more here isn't out of question maybe 2 as well but 1 is safer pick
So overall I would say he would win 4-5 more depending on French open basically if that needs to extend it maybe wimbledon he might surprise and win another.
So he would end up with 23 slams I feel lets see its more or less than that in the end.
 

TennisBatman

Semi-Pro
Lets analyse each slam
Ao- This place he has been most unlicky in his career and I feel he is bound to win once more there given all things fall in place.So I would say 1 more,most probably 2020 or 2021
Fo- This is his place literally and any number is possible but realistically 2 more is a safe or 3 if body holds up.
Wimbledon- This is where I think he chances are least to win another but he has had good results in last 2 years but still think he may not win here again.
Us open- Clearly his 2nd best slam and I think courts here suit his game well so I think 1 more here isn't out of question maybe 2 as well but 1 is safer pick
So overall I would say he would win 4-5 more depending on French open basically if that needs to extend it maybe wimbledon he might surprise and win another.
So he would end up with 23 slams I feel lets see its more or less than that in the end.
At the AO, Nadal has indeed been unlucky with injuries and close losses in the final. But this year's AO final against Djokovic was far from close, and if Djokovic recovers successfully in time, it will be a tough challenge for Nadal.

Nadal has done well at the French Open with his old playing style, and it worked at the Australian and Wimbledon during his early years. After 2012, Nadal relied on his new style in the other 3 Slams, but it didn't give him a Slam championship outside of the US Open.

His new playing style, showcased in 2013 at the US Open, has carried him well at the US Open over the years. But he hasn't been able to leverage his new style effectively enough at the other Slams to win a victory there. I know this because he mentioned in a press conference that he plays the normal way at the French Open and a different way at the other Slams. The big question mark is whether Nadal would beat Djokovic at the US Open, as the last time they played each other was in 2013. They are both dominant at the US Open as long as they are healthy, and injuries seem to have been the major factor for either of them failing to win the US Open in recent years.

It will be very interesting to see how Thiem and Medvedev can mount their challenges against Nadal at the French and US Open, respectively, in the coming years.
 
Last edited:

dellealpi10

New User
IMO

AU: it is unlikely for Nadal to win. AU is the best GS of Djokovic and Melbourne is the place Djokovic get his peak (after that, Djokovic’s form usually decline step by step. This matter occurred in 2012, 2013, 2016, 2019 and even 2011). Meanwhile, Nadal’s form at AU is usually low.

RG: Nadal can win 2 more

WI: I really hope Nadal to win Wimbledon 2020 and believe that he has his chance. In Wim2019, Fed was better than Nadal but please remember that at Wim 2020, Fed will be nearly 39 years old and I don’t think Fed can repeat his form of 2019. Djokovic doesn’t good at Wim, too (please see his performance at 2019 final. In 2018 SF against Nadal, Djokovic was not better one, too).

US: at Hard court, Djokovic is favorite unless he is injury. Nadal can win it if he had easy draw and doesn’t have to face Djokovic

Conclusion: Nadal will win 3 (2RG+1WI) or 4 (2RG+1WI+1US) more. He will finish at 22 or 23.
 

TennisBatman

Semi-Pro
IMO

AU: it is unlikely for Nadal to win. AU is the best GS of Djokovic and Melbourne is the place Djokovic get his peak (after that, Djokovic’s form usually decline step by step. This matter occurred in 2012, 2013, 2016, 2019 and even 2011). Meanwhile, Nadal’s form at AU is usually low.

RG: Nadal can win 2 more

WI: I really hope Nadal to win Wimbledon 2020 and believe that he has his chance. In Wim2019, Fed was better than Nadal but please remember that at Wim 2020, Fed will be nearly 39 years old and I don’t think Fed can repeat his form of 2019. Djokovic doesn’t good at Wim, too (please see his performance at 2019 final. In 2018 SF against Nadal, Djokovic was not better one, too).

US: at Hard court, Djokovic is favorite unless he is injury. Nadal can win it if he had easy draw and doesn’t have to face Djokovic

Conclusion: Nadal will win 3 (2RG+1WI) or 4 (2RG+1WI+1US) more. He will finish at 22 or 23.
Good point in that Nadal will likely have a short, but noticeable, window of opportunity to win the Wimbledon championship as a result of Federer's expected decline over the next few years.

As for the US Open, I think more people will begin to say that Nadal-Djokovic is now the more anticipated match than Nadal-Federer.
 

clout

Hall of Fame
22 seems like a good target if all goes well. Two more RGs and one more on either HC or grass. This is obviously just a guess though he could very well win less than that but if things go even better he could pass 22 as well
 

clout

Hall of Fame
For the big three, I’d tentatively say:

Nadal - 22
Djokovic - 20
Federer - 20

I explained Rafa’s distribution above, and as you can see I honestly don’t think Federer wins another major (although I’ve said that before and been wrong a couple times).

Djokovic is the least predictable player in this scenario. I wouldn’t expect him to play much tennis, if any at all, for the rest of the year given his health and he knows the goal is to be as fresh as can be for the AO. Also, as we’ve seen throughout his career, he either wins in insane bunches or he hardly wins at all, so depending on health and form, it’s just as likely that Novak won his last slam at Wimbledon as it is that he passes Fedal when it’s all said and done.
 

Mike Sams

Legend
So difficult to say. Nadal seldom maintains his hot form for long stretches. Often he burns out or starts feeling the grind in his bones and needs time off. But the Slam race is a significant driving force for him where he's determined to try to hit 20. So it's possible that he'll be very careful with his schedule and try to peak for the 4 Slams. He may no longer put all his effort in the clay season 1000 or 500 events and instead will try to focus solely on RG. I could see him hitting 20 Slams next year provided the young gen stay as horrid as they have been. Although it's very possible we may get some real surprises in 2020 where the big 3 start feeling the pressure of the competition. We've seen what Dimitrov can do when he's in the mood (AO2017 against Nadal and USO2019 against Federer). We've also seen what Medvedev can do and what Thiem can do when all are playing at their determined best. It's about consistency and staying hungry and having the desire to win the biggest titles. Whether the young gen can pull this off is another matter. But what's in their favour is that the big 3 are getting older and are more prone to injuries. And one thing that's evident is that the young guys are more than capable of going toe to toe with the big 3 as we've seen. It's really just a matter of time. We also should not forget about the other somewhat older guys who are there in the thick of it when they're playing their best. Specifically Wawrinka and Del Potro. Hopefully they'll both be at their best in 2020 and will contend for some Slam titles. Del Potro is high quality at Wimbledon and USO while Stan is a killer in Australia and USO when he's in top form.
 

Mike Sams

Legend
Nadal to win at least 42 Slams. So that's another 21 RG titles and 2 US Opens. Nadal officially retires at age 57 to avoid facing his 23 year old son Bafa Nadal aka The Prince of Clay in the 2044 Roland Garros final. :) Bafa Nadal meanwhile will be consistently beating both Leo and Lenny Federer at RG.

 

Pantera

Banned
Just for fun...

Considering that some people in this forum bring up posts from years ago, I will plant this seed today!


Also see the below:
Djokovic's Final Slam Count


Nadal without doubt gets 21...that USO win takes huge pressure off him as time is on his side now. Thats why he was so tense at USO he knee the significance.

Whether he wins more after 21 depends on Djokovic. If Djokovic keeps winning they will push each other beyond Court probably.
 

DerekNoleFam1

Professional
For the big three, I’d tentatively say:

Nadal - 22
Djokovic - 20
Federer - 20

I explained Rafa’s distribution above, and as you can see I honestly don’t think Federer wins another major (although I’ve said that before and been wrong a couple times).

Djokovic is the least predictable player in this scenario. I wouldn’t expect him to play much tennis, if any at all, for the rest of the year given his health and he knows the goal is to be as fresh as can be for the AO. Also, as we’ve seen throughout his career, he either wins in insane bunches or he hardly wins at all, so depending on health and form, it’s just as likely that Novak won his last slam at Wimbledon as it is that he passes Fedal when it’s all said and done.
It's also just as likely Nadal just won his last Slam as well.
He only just scraped over the line at the USO, like Djoker did in Wimbledon.
Nobody has won the French over 34yo in the open era either, so Nadal's annual harvest hold end there as well, and not keep winning indefinitely.
 

clout

Hall of Fame
It's also just as likely Nadal just won his last Slam as well.
He only just scraped over the line at the USO, like Djoker did in Wimbledon.
Nobody has won the French over 34yo in the open era either, so Nadal's annual harvest hold end there as well, and not keep winning indefinitely.
That could very well be true as well, but in my opinion, I just can’t see Rafa not winning at least one more RG title, even if he goes awol at the non-clay slams, he’ll always be the favourite at the French until someone does otherwise.

Also, as I mentioned above, given their career trajectory, Novak either dominates everyone in sight or he doesn’t win that win all that much. He won 4/5 slams between ‘11 AO-‘12 AO, 4/5 slams between ‘18 Wimbledon-‘19 Wimbledon and an incredible 6/8 between ‘14 Wimbledon-‘16 French. So in pretty much 4 years of his career he won 14 majors, which is insane. However, in the other 10 or so years he’s managed “only” 2; he went three years between his first and second major, he won just one slam in 2.5 years between ‘12 AO-‘14 Wimbledon, and he went 2 years between the Nole Slam and his most recent run of dominance to win another major.

This is why I’m not sure how much nole is gonna win cuz it all depends which route he goes down among the two above.
 

Goof

Semi-Pro
Nadal should be able to hit 21 at least barring injury. Whether and how many above that depends mainly on Djokovic's level, as Nadal is unlikely to beat him in AO or Wimb.
 

Antonio Puente

Hall of Fame
If Nadal does get the slam record, we have to be decent about it and still give credit to the other greats past and present. Djoker is an amazing player, obviously. Pete and Borg? Those guys were warriors.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
It's also just as likely Nadal just won his last Slam as well.
He only just scraped over the line at the USO, like Djoker did in Wimbledon.
Nobody has won the French over 34yo in the open era either, so Nadal's annual harvest hold end there as well, and not keep winning indefinitely.
False.
Andres Gimeno (Also Spaniard) won Roland Garros 1972 with 34 years 10 months and 1 day.
So, realistically, Nadal will still 2 more chances to win his favourite Slam.
:D
 
It's also just as likely Nadal just won his last Slam as well.
He only just scraped over the line at the USO, like Djoker did in Wimbledon.
Nobody has won the French over 34yo in the open era either, so Nadal's annual harvest hold end there as well, and not keep winning indefinitely.
That sounds like a lot of wishful thinking there, pal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DSH
Top