Nadal's projected draw versus his actual draw

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Deleted member 771911

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There was some fuss about Nadal's draw being 'tough' and that he would not make it through to win his 14th RG title.
So in this thread, let's record the projected draw and the actual draw he faced and see how tough it really was.

Here is the projected draw- Popyrin-Gaston/Gasquet- Sonego-Sinner-Rublev-Djokovic-Medvedev.

Already Sonego is out. Rublev is now out, too.

Which means it's-

Popyrin-Gaston/Gasquet- Sonego Harris/Norrie-Sinner- Rublev Struff/Basilashvili/Schwartzman/Karatsev / Kohli-Djokovic-Medvedev.

Norrie is not bad on Clay, but he's no Sonego. And Nadal handled him pretty well in AO which is, according to tennis expert Medvedev, similar to this RG in terms of surface conditions.

Also, I know some would relish a Nadal Karatsev QF. I wonder how competitive that would be.

Perhaps the final is the biggest variable/unknown. I think Meddy would be an easy final opponent. Other options could be Zverev and Tsitsipas, but they are not the projected draw.

Round 1- Popyrin. Tough third set and were it not for Popyrin not being able to handle things, Nadal could have had a tough time. As it was, he had a very mild tough time for about half an hour.
Round 2- Gasquet. Nadal won in straights. Gasquet put up a bit of a fight in set 2 by all accounts.
Round 3- Will play Norrie. Clay is Norrie's best surface, but this is his first time in the 3r in four appearances (2r-1r-1r).
 
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Deleted member 771911

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Seeing as there is no variability with round 1, not much to write there.
But, Nadal faces Popyrin in round 1. Some poster (s) claims Popyrin can take a set. There has even been talk of an upset. Let's see how that goes.
As for round 2, I'll cover that now. I imagine most of us expect Nadal to face Gaston. who had a great RG '20.
 
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Deleted member 771911

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Problem is, the tournament is now played on a red hardcourt. So any draw is tough for Nadal.
Good point. I am still reading about this change to the surface. So, would you revise your idea of a tough draw based on that? For example, would it in fact be worse for Nadal to face Struff in the QF?
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
Good point. I am still reading about this change to the surface. So, would you revise your idea of a tough draw based on that? For example, would it in fact be worse for Nadal to face Struff in the QF?
I have no idea how Nadal will play in these new conditions. But from what I've seen so far, there are no reasons for optimism. His topspin will not be working at all.
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
There is no tough draw for Rafa here.

You could put Tsitsipas, Zverev, Djokovic, all in a line and he still loses one set max.
That was maybe the case in RG, but not at the Djokovic Open. Since roof didn't work last year, this year they also use lighter balls and a different type of clay. Nothing will stop the organizers.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
That was maybe the case in RG, but not at the Djokovic Open. Since roof didn't work last year, this year they also use lighter balls and a different type of clay. Nothing will stop the organizers.

Rafa still wins. Unless they tell him get the $%&@ out of the tournament and ban him from playing, nothing is stopping him.
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Sonego - Out
Sinner - pushed to fifth in 1R
Rublev - Two sets down in 1R.

Every tricky opponent Nadal was supposed to face having early troubles. If Kartsev too falls - Nadal will get cakewalk to semis.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
What idiot thought Nadal had a tough draw? Sonego? Gasquet? wtf?

Nadal would've clowned him. Only the SF will be tough

Haha, agreed!
I'm not ruling out Tsitsipas, though. Good physicality, and has been in big situations a couple of times now.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
Tsitsipas is in the other half of the draw

If he reaches Rafa in a RG final of all places...he's gonna get decimated man

Most likely. Outside a tip top Djokovic, Tsitsipas is still the toughest opponent right now for Nadal IMO.
 
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Deleted member 771911

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I would say Meddy is not a tough projected final opponent.
 
N

Nuclear Warhead Sinner

Guest
What idiot thought Nadal had a tough draw? Sonego? Gasquet? wtf?

Nadal would've clowned him. Only the SF will be tough
It's rafa fans making tons of threads about it to make his victory feel more epic. They already know the W is in the bag lol.
They want to savor it properly and watch the forum burn as the new GOAT is officially anointed.
 

Sephiroth

Hall of Fame
It's rafa fans making tons of threads about it to make his victory feel more epic. They already know the W is in the bag lol.
They want to savor it properly and watch the forum burn as the new GOAT is officially anointed.

I'm a Rafa fan lol but I don't see this draw as tough

Only the SF is since I expect Djokovic to be there

If he reaches the F then he ain't gonna lose a RG final against Medvedev or Tsitsipas while gunning for #21, no chance
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
I'm a Rafa fan lol but I don't see this draw as tough

Only the SF is since I expect Djokovic to be there

If he reaches the F then he ain't gonna lose a RG final against Medvedev or Tsitsipas while gunning for #21, no chance
Lol, you are not a Nadal fan. Otherwise you would see it is not a red hardcourt.
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
Miracle??? :rolleyes:
Dude, I have seen Federer's match yesterday. This is NOT a clay court. No way he would be able to be so aggressive on clay. They turned it into a red hardcourt, and also use lighter balls, and I'm afraid Nadal's topspin will not work at all. If you don't believe me, note that Medvedev said the same thing.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Dude, I have seen Federer's match yesterday. This is NOT a clay court. No way he would be able to be so aggressive on clay. They turned it into a red hardcourt, and also use lighter balls, and I'm afraid Nadal's topspin will not work at all. If you don't believe me, note that Medvedev said the same thing.

I saw it also.

Please don't tell me you are using Istomin as the barometer here.
 
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Deleted member 762343

Guest
Rafa still wins. Unless they tell him get the $%&@ out of the tournament and ban him from playing, nothing is stopping him.

But is a bery tough draw, no? Gonna tly his best, no?
 
T

TheNachoMan

Guest
This happens everytime the VB hype up his “tough” draws
 

ND-13

Hall of Fame
I am wondering why even have 128 players in draw ?

the 126 can play between them and Nadal/ Djoker can directly play just the finals

the next gen is just incorrigible mugs, one after the other

Rublev, Thiem , Zverev should be ashamed
 

Winner

Professional
Is there an article out on how they changed the surface below the clay?
Legend has it that they could not finish cleaning up the remains of Novak Djokovic after the last final in time so they just put a hard surface down and sprinkled some red clay on top.
 

mehdimike

Hall of Fame
There was some fuss about Nadal's draw being 'tough' and that he would not make it through to win his 14th RG title.
So in this thread, let's record the projected draw and the actual draw he faced and see how tough it really was.

Here is the projected draw- Popyrin-Gaston/Gasquet- Sonego-Sinner-Rublev-Djokovic-Medvedev.

Already Sonego is out. Rublev is now out, too.

Which means it's-

Popyrin-Gaston/Gasquet- Sonego Harris/Norrie-Sinner- Rublev Struff-Basilashvili-Schwartzman-Karatsev-Djokovic-Medvedev.

Norrie is not bad on Clay, but he's no Sonego. And Nadal handled him pretty well in AO which is, according to tennis expert Medvedev, similar to this RG in terms of surface conditions.

Also, I know some would relish a Nadal Karatsev QF. I wonder how competitive that would be.

Perhaps the final is the biggest variable/unknown. I think Meddy would be an easy final opponent. Other options could be Zverev and Tsitsipas, but they are not the projected draw.
Round 1- Popyrin. Tough third set and were it not for Popyrin not being able to handle things, Nadal could have had a tough time. As it was, he had a very mild tough time for about half an hour.
Round 2- Will play Gasquet. Not expecting this to be challenging, though.
Bum!!
Mark off Aslan!
It's been a weird tourney so far :rolleyes:
 

zvelf

Hall of Fame
Yeah, with Karatsev out, Nadal's only "reputable" "threat" in this purported "super-hard" quarter is Sinner.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
It only means the draw is even harder than "the hardest draw in the history of the men's game", according to the "beat the player who beat the player" theory.
 
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