Nadal's seeding at Wimbledon

[helterskelter]

So, Nadal will be ranked either 10 or 11 next week.

Furthermore, the grass-court formula used to determine Wimbledon seedings will not help him either after his performances in recent years.

Has anyone worked out yet what his seeding would be if they drew them up next week?

(He could win Stuttgart and Queen's and gain 750 points. That might push him back up to #9, ahead of Cilic, but no higher. However, the points would be double counted in the grass-court formula. On current form, and based on the last few year's results on grass, him winning either one of them, let alone both, seems rather unlikely).

It might seem unimportant, as he'll definitely be in the 9-16 range. But if he's seeded 9-12, his fourth round opponent will be a seed ranked between 5 and 8. If he's seeded 13-16, his fourth round opponent will be a seed ranked between 1 and 4. He might face Djokovic, Federer, or Murray in the last 16 if that were the case.

That said, he's 630 points ahead of Simon (the projected #13 next week), so I doubt he'll be seeded outside the top 12 for Wimbledon.

 

[tennisaddict]

Berdych, Stan, Raonic can all take out Rafa in the 4th round. He has to hope for Ferrer.

 

[terribleIVAN]

I don't think Rafa's much worried about his Wimbledon seeding !

He's already deciding the place of his next 2 months vacation...

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Berdych, Stan, Raonic can all take out Rafa in the 4th round. He has to hope for Ferrer.

Ferrer could too.

 

[Netspirit]

Ferrer could too.

Not on grass.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

Nadal's morale at Wimbledon is going to be at an all time low.

He has never played Wimbledon after losing at Roland Garros. In 2009 he skipped it.

 

[Towser83]

I read a quote from him where he said he would play stuttgart, queens and PROBABLY wimbledon...

"That's it. I am booked for Stuttgart and Queen's and then in Wimbledon probably.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/33001393

don't now if that means anything or if he even really said that

 

[bombaybeach]

Nadal's morale at Wimbledon is going to be at an all time low.

He has never played Wimbledon after losing at Roland Garros. In 2009 he skipped it.

He cant be that discouraged about losing RG this year. He isnt stupid, and he has to know his tennis SUCKS right now, and it would have been a huge upset to win RG in his current form. Which is nothing like 2009 where he was the overwhelming favorite and supposed to win his 2nd slam of the year.

He can go in with nothing to lose. Nobody expects anything at all after a terrible year, terrible comeback thus far, and terrible Wimbledon play last several years. Who knows, he might surprise.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Not on grass.

If Rosol could 3 years ago, Ferrer can today.

 

[Netspirit]

If Rosol could 3 years ago, Ferrer can today.

Rosol is a shotmaker. He zoned and hit corners that day. Ferrer cannot hit anybody off the court, his only strength is legs (quoting his interview). Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Kyrgios, Raonic, etc. can beat this version of Nadal at Wimbledon, but not Ferrer, Simon, or anyone like them.

 

[bombaybeach]

Rosol is nothing like Ferrer. He hits the ball super low and hard, much moreso than Ferrer. Ferrer is a better player, probably even on grass (although he kind of sucks on grass, so dont know about that last part), but Rosol is a much worse opponent for late career Nadal on grass than Ferrer.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

He cant be that discouraged about losing RG this year. He isnt stupid, and he has to know his tennis SUCKS right now, and it would have been a huge upset to win RG in his current form. Which is nothing like 2009 where he was the overwhelming favorite and supposed to win his 2nd slam of the year.

He can go in with nothing to lose. Nobody expects anything at all after a terrible year, terrible comeback thus far, and terrible Wimbledon play last several years. Who knows, he might surprise.

It's the opposite. Every year he has gone into Wimbledon with 'nothing to lose' because he had just won RG 2 weeks before. Now he's on a huge losing streak with no slams to his name. The pressure is on for him to reassert himself off of clay since RG 2016 is a year away.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Rosol is a shotmaker. He zoned and hit corners that day. Ferrer cannot hit anybody off the court, his only strength is legs (quoting his interview). Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Kyrgios, Raonic, etc. can beat this version of Nadal at Wimbledon, but not Ferrer, Simon, or anyone like them.

Rosol is a journeyman. He played one good match, hit big, went for the corners and hoped for the best.

If you don't believe an elite player like Ferrer could replicate this (going for broke) then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[tennisaddict]

It's the opposite. Every year he has gone into Wimbledon with 'nothing to lose' because he had just won RG 2 weeks before. Now he's on a huge losing streak with no slams to his name. The pressure is on for him to reassert himself off of clay since RG 2016 is a year away.

I have a feeling time is too short for him to get to the form to make a deep run at Wimbledon.

His best bet is to get some matches and be prepared for the USO Series.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Rosol is nothing like Ferrer. He hits the ball super low and hard, much moreso than Ferrer. Ferrer is a better player, probably even on grass (although he kind of sucks on grass, so dont know about that last part), but Rosol is a much worse opponent for late career Nadal on grass than Ferrer.

And they need to be like each other to replicate the same result why?

At this point Nadal could lose to just about anybody on grass.

 

[bombaybeach]

It's the opposite. Every year he has gone into Wimbledon with 'nothing to lose' because he had just won RG 2 weeks before. Now he's on a huge losing streak with no slams to his name. The pressure is on for him to reassert himself off of clay since RG 2016 is a year away.

Unless he is stupid though he has to know his tennis has sucked bigtime this year and winning any big title (even RG) would be a huge upset right now. He has to look at things as baby steps, and any improvement anywhere is positive right now. If he is emotionally crushed from losing RG given how he came in playing than he is really ********. 2009 it atleast made total sense, and everyone had fully expected him to win there, and probably Wimbledon too, going into RG. So his confidence being shot so badly he maybe partly skipped Wimbledon do it made easy sense. Today none at all.

 

[fighting123]

His seeding may hugely affect his chance at Wimbledon. I dont favor his chance against top players in the first week where the grass is actually grass.

 

[augustobt]

There's a few points to be considered:
Nadal is playing a couple of warm-up events. He can add some points and regain #9.

Altough, by Wimbledon seed system, Dimitrov should move up based on his points of last grass season.

 

[mule250]

Fedal 4th round at Wimby would be pretty exciting!

 

[WhiskeyEE]

I have a feeling time is too short for him to get to the form to make a deep run at Wimbledon.

His best bet is to get some matches and be prepared for the USO Series.

I think he'll have a tough time on hard courts as well. Right now he has the ground game he did when he was a teenager, but without the speed. He's going to be a sitting duck for pretty much everyone.

The reason his shots are landing so short is because he's missing the sweet spot. The same reason Federer has lost his power. Once you lose a bit of your fine motor skills it doesn't come back. Berdych's power is so effortless because he hits the ball so clean.

 

[RF-18]

Wimbledon takes in other judgements than only looking at current ranking. So he may be seeded higher than his ranking tells.

But that no one knows. Lets see

 

[Ace007]

I read a quote from him where he said he would play stuttgart, queens and PROBABLY wimbledon...



http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/33001393

don't now if that means anything or if he even really said that

That is actually pretty weird wording if it is a direct quote. But it doesn't make sense to play 2 grass tournaments and then not Wimbledon lol

So, I think it is just it is the wording, nothing more.

 

[tennisaddict]

I think he'll have a tough time on hard courts as well. Right now he has the ground game he did when he was a teenager, but without the speed. He's going to be a sitting duck for pretty much everyone.

The reason his shots are landing so short is because he's missing the sweet spot. The same reason Federer has lost his power. Once you lose a bit of your fine motor skills it doesn't come back. Berdych's power is so effortless because he hits the ball so clean.

There is no serve to save him either.

But finishing in top 10 is not a hard task. Top 8 is going to need some serious work.

 

[FlashFlare11]

I feel like Wimbledon will always be difficult for Nadal. The last few years have shown players the tried and tested way to beat Nadal on grass, tactics that are even more effective during the first week. Really, anyone he comes across from Round 1 will have some strategy to try to beat him and a precedent on which to base that on.

Honestly, it's the same for Federer. I feel like the both of them have become increasingly vulnerable at Wimbledon to the same kind of players; big hitters with huge serves. The number of players that could beat the both of them there is growing

 

[fighting123]

Honestly, it's the same for Federer. I feel like the both of them have become increasingly vulnerable at Wimbledon to the same kind of players; big hitters with huge serves. The number of players that could beat the both of them there is growing

Didn't he crush Wawrinka, and then Raonic last year at Wimbledon? They both have a huge game off the baseline coupling with great serves.

Roger game suits the grass so well that I believe he stands a chance against anyone, not at a high margin as he had during 2003-2009 though.

 

[helterskelter]

Berdych, Stan, Raonic can all take out Rafa in the 4th round. He has to hope for Ferrer.

Is Raonic definitely playing Wimbledon? If not, Nadal could even sneak the #8 seed still if he picks up points in Stuttgart and Queens.

If Cilic is seeded #8, then Nadal could definitely lose to him, too. Although Cilic may be on worse form than Nadal.

 

[helterskelter]

Wimbledon takes in other judgements than only looking at current ranking. So he may be seeded higher than his ranking tells.

But that no one knows. Lets see

It doesn't use discretion anymore, though. It uses a special formula that weights grass-court points earned in the last three years for extra. So I don't think there's any way for them to move Nadal UP in the seedings (unless he does well at Stuttgart and Queen's). They could move him DOWN, however.

 

[FlashFlare11]

Didn't he crush Wawrinka, and then Raonic last year at Wimbledon? They both have a huge game off the baseline coupling with great serves.



Roger game suits the grass so well that I believe he stands a chance against anyone, not at a high margin as he had during 2003-2009 though.

He did. I loved watching him do that. At the same time, he lost to Berdych, Tsonga, and Stakhovsky. All three of them took the match to Federer and outhit him. I still think he can win Wimbledon and would love nothing more than to see him lift the trophy this year, those losses still make me think that he could lose to a player like those mentioned above.