Nadal's serve cost him a chance at 21 GS titles

[TennisFan3]

As mentioned before Nadal's serving has been awful in 2021 clay season:

• Career high double faults per set: this F.O 2021 and much of the clay swing. 8 Double Faults in the final. Highest EVER in a ATP match.
• Lower Avg mph on 1st serve. Lower % won on 1st serve.
• Lack of variety on serve. Tennis channel showed placement of serve this year vs last year. He lacks spot serving and very predictable in his patterns - circa 2015-2017.
• Unable to get cheap points on serve. Repeatedly broken by multiple players all clay season and mauled by Djokovic today.
• Nadal was continuously under pressure on every service game vs Novak. He started a lot of games with 0-15 and couldn't serve big and finish games.

What the stats do not capture is the 3rd shot in the rally. Which means that the shot Nadal hits after the opponent returns his serve.
In prior years, the 3rd shot from Nadal was usually his forehand, because it was impossible to find his backhand while returning his serve.
Now that the serve is weaker, it's easy to attack Nadal on his backhand with your ROS. Djokovic did that beautifully today.

Statistically for the entire RG 2021 SF Nadal hit 236 forehands and 232 backhands. Which means the ratio is roughly 50-50. In most of Nadal's match wins (RG 2020 and earlier years) - he hits way more forehands than backhands.
Even after serving, Nadal was unable to get the ball on his forehand and do damage. This is ultimately what cost him the match.

Djokovic and Federer have recognized the importance of serve. Novak hired Ivanisevic and is serving amazing in 2021. It was key to Novak's win in AO 2021 and what is likely to be RG 2021. Nadal has not made any similar improvements, and has actually regressed.

Nadal has had an ATG career. But he needs help and needs to improve his serve ASAP. The serve would be even more critical in non clay slams - if Nadal wants to have chances to add to his tally.

 

[TennisFan3]

Please move to General Pro Player section.

 

[movies99]

As mentioned before Nadal's serving has been awful in 2021 clay season:

• Career high double faults per set: this F.O 2021 and much of the clay swing.
• Lower Avg mph on 1st serve. Lower % won on 1st serve.
• Lack of variety on serve. Tennis channel showed placement of serve this year vs last year. He lacks spot serving and very predictable in his patterns - circa 2015-2017.
• Unable to get cheap points on serve. Repeatedly broken by multiple players all clay season and mauled by Djokovic today.
• Nadal was continuously under pressure on every service game vs Novak. He started a lot of games with 0-15 and couldn't serve big and finish games.

What the stats do not capture is the 3rd shot in the rally. Which means that the shot Nadal hits after the opponent returns his serve.
In prior years, the 3rd shot from Nadal was usually his forehand, because it was impossible to find his backhand while returning his serve.
Now that the serve is weaker, it's easy to attack Nadal on his backhand with your ROS. Djokovic did that beautifully today.

Statistically for the entire RG 2021 SF Nadal hit 236 forehands and 232 backhands. Which means the ratio is roughly 50-50. In most of Nadal's match wins (RG 2020 and earlier years) - he hits way more forehands than backhands.
Even after serving, Nadal was unable to get the ball on his forehand and do damage. This is ultimately what cost him the match.

Djokovic and Federer have recognized the importance of serve. Novak hired Ivanisevic and is serving amazing in 2021. It was key to Novak's win in AO 2021 and what is likely to be RG 2021. Nadal has not made any similar improvements, and has actually regressed.

Nadal has had an ATG career. But he needs help and needs to improve his serve ASAP. The serve would be even more critical in non clay slams - if Nadal wants to have chances to add to his tally.

Yes its baffling why he doesn't improve serve.

 

[TennisFan3]

Yes its baffling why he doesn't improve serve.

Exactly right. IMO biggest reason he lost.

 

[Chanwan]

Insane that he hit that many backhands, where did you get the stat?
Great post and analysis

 

[TennisFan3]

Insane that he hit that many backhands, where did you get the stat?
Great post and analysis

Infosys match stats.
Nadal has never ever hit that many backhands in a match.
It's usually 60 percent or more forehands. This match was 50 percent.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Infosys match stats.
Nadal has never ever hit that many backhands in a match.
It's usually 60 percent or more forehands. This match was 50 percent.

Novak successfully targeted his backhand.

 

[TennisFan3]

Novak successfully targeted his backhand.

Because Nadal allowed him to.
With weak serving and not being agressive on Novak's serve.
Compare the stats between earlier matches and the current one , you will see the difference.

 

[socallefty]

I would say that it is more true to say that Novak’s serve cost Nadal the match! When you play your opponent evenly from the baseline, the bigger server has the advantage. Djokovic got easy service games many times late in the match which gave him the mental ease to be extra-aggressive while being relaxed on his return games and Rafa paid the price.

 

[aldeayeah]

It hasn't been the same since this year's AO and the back problems, which doesn't bode well for Wimby. If there's a niggling issue there, sitting out Wimby might be a wise move.

 

[tennisjedi]

Rafa should consider changing his racquet or the mechanics of his serve.

 

[TennisFan3]

Rafa should consider changing his racquet or the mechanics of his serve.

Great point. And get some help as well. A new specialist coach.

 

[BeatlesFan]

With weak serving and not being aggressive on Novak's serve.

This is so true. Djokovic played brilliantly, but his second serve was an absolute cream puff the entire match, below WTA level in velocity. It was baffling to see Rafa continue to stand on Mars to return serves coming in at 75 MPH. Rafa also never changed anything up. Once he started to tire in the middle of the third set, he should have started coming in and shortening points. Instead he continued to grind which simply isn't going to work when you're 35.

Fed takes so much crap on this forum from the haters, but I've always said Nadal isn't winning 3 slams after turning 35 like Roger did. Anyone can see he's physically declined and simply not moving like he used to do. All the years of brutal practices and grinding has to take a toll, even on a beast like Nadal. He was completely spent in the fifth set at the AO in January and he was running on fumes in the 4th set last night.

 

[TennisFan3]

This is so true. Djokovic played brilliantly, but his second serve was an absolute cream puff the entire match, below WTA level in velocity. It was baffling to see Rafa continue to stand on Mars to return serves coming in at 75 MPH. Rafa also never changed anything up. Once he started to tire in the middle of the third set, he should have started coming in and shortening points. Instead he continued to grind which simply isn't going to work when you're 35.

Fed takes so much crap on this forum from the haters, but I've always said Nadal isn't winning 3 slams after turning 35 like Roger did. Anyone can see he's physically declined and simply not moving like he used to do. All the years of brutal practices and grinding has to take a toll, even on a beast like Nadal. He was completely spent in the fifth set at the AO in January and he was running on fumes in the 4th set last night.

Djokovic's average second serve speed for the match was 82 mph.
That is laughable. And Nadal did nothing on the 2nd serve return at all.

 

[SonicNirvana]

Djokovic's average second serve speed for the match was 82 mph.
That is laughable. And Nadal did nothing on the 2nd serve return at all.

8 DFs vs a Djoko that's making close to 0 UFEs is a hard way to win. It's incredible how he almost willed himself to win that 3rd set.

 

[dapchai]

Here are some stats of the 2015 clay season and the 2021 clay season:

In 2015, Nadal played 32 matches on clay, in Rio, Argentina, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG, Hamburg; won 2 titles (Argentina and Hamburg) and made 50 double faults in total. On average, he made 1.56 DFs per match.

In 2021, Nadal has played 22 matches on clay, in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG (he might play Hamburg later); won 2 titles (Barcelona and Rome) and made 62 double faults in total (so far; I earlier made a mistake saying 64). On average, he made 2.82 DFs per match. Some matches with unusually high number of DFs: Monte Carlo against Rublev (7 DFs), RG against Popyrin (5 DFs), RG against Sinner (7 DFs), and RG against Djokovic (8 DFs). At RG alone he made 28 DFs.

These stats show that his serve was much more terrible in 2021 than in 2015.

 

[TennisFan3]

Here are some stats of the 2015 clay season and the 2021 clay season:

In 2015, Nadal played 32 matches on clay, in Rio, Argentina, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG, Hamburg; won 2 titles (Argentina and Hamburg) and made 50 double faults in total. On average, he made 1.56 DFs per match.

In 2021, Nadal has played 22 matches on clay, in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG (he might play Hamburg later); won 2 titles (Barcelona and Rome) and made 62 double faults in total (so far; I earlier made a mistake saying 64). On average, he made 2.82 DFs per match. Some matches with unusually high number of DFs: Monte Carlo against Rublev (7 DFs), RG against Popyrin (5 DFs), RG against Sinner (7 DFs), and RG against Djokovic (8 DFs). At RG alone he made 28 DFs.

These stats show that his serve was much more terrible in 2021 than in 2015.

Excellent post. Well researched.
Didn't know his serve was so bad in 2021. It's crazy.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Nadal' serve in last one hour of play was really challenger level stuff. He was hitting every fcking first serve at bottom(!) of net - it was unbelievable stuff. How he could miss serves with such a big margin is beyond me.

 

[TennisFan3]

Nadal' serve in last one hour of play was really challenger level stuff. He was hitting every fcking first serve at bottom(!) of net - it was unbelievable stuff. How he could miss serves with such a big margin is beyond me.

His serve this whole clay season was garbage.
I cannot understand why he hasn't improved his serve with age.
When Gasquet and Popyrn break you left and right, what will Novak do?

 

[D.Nalby12]

His serve this whole clay season was garbage.
I cannot understand why he hasn't improved his serve with age.
When Gasquet and Popyrn break you left and right, what will Novak do?

Novak almost won 50% return points. He was there in almost every Nadal' service game.

 

[TennisFan3]

Novak almost won 50% return points. He was there in almost every Nadal' service game.

I mean Novak will be. He is a GOAT returner. But Nadal didn't help his chances by 8 Double faults and WTA level serves for a large part of the match.
And then ZERO variety. Especially on the 2nd serve. Serving 100% to Novak's backhand. Novak was leaning towards that side, getting a nice rhythm and blasting Nadal into oblivion. LOL.

 

[TennisFan3]

These matches are decided by inches. It is my firm belief that if Nadal has served better, he would have been broken less and been a little bit less under pressure.
That extra 5% could have been decisive and he could have played more freely. It surely cost him the match.

 

[weakera]

These matches are decided by inches. It is my firm belief that if Nadal has served better, he would have been broken less and been a little bit less under pressure.
That extra 5% could have been decisive and he could have played more freely. It surely cost him the match.

I thought when he tightened up his serve in the later stages of Schwartzman QF that he had figured something out. Turned out to be a fleeting mirage.

Same thing with Wimbledon 2018 SF. Djokovic serve was the difference.

 

[Deleted member 770948]

As mentioned before Nadal's serving has been awful in 2021 clay season:

• Career high double faults per set: this F.O 2021 and much of the clay swing. 8 Double Faults in the final. Highest EVER in a ATP match.
• Lower Avg mph on 1st serve. Lower % won on 1st serve.
• Lack of variety on serve. Tennis channel showed placement of serve this year vs last year. He lacks spot serving and very predictable in his patterns - circa 2015-2017.
• Unable to get cheap points on serve. Repeatedly broken by multiple players all clay season and mauled by Djokovic today.
• Nadal was continuously under pressure on every service game vs Novak. He started a lot of games with 0-15 and couldn't serve big and finish games.

What the stats do not capture is the 3rd shot in the rally. Which means that the shot Nadal hits after the opponent returns his serve.
In prior years, the 3rd shot from Nadal was usually his forehand, because it was impossible to find his backhand while returning his serve.
Now that the serve is weaker, it's easy to attack Nadal on his backhand with your ROS. Djokovic did that beautifully today.

Statistically for the entire RG 2021 SF Nadal hit 236 forehands and 232 backhands. Which means the ratio is roughly 50-50. In most of Nadal's match wins (RG 2020 and earlier years) - he hits way more forehands than backhands.
Even after serving, Nadal was unable to get the ball on his forehand and do damage. This is ultimately what cost him the match.

Djokovic and Federer have recognized the importance of serve. Novak hired Ivanisevic and is serving amazing in 2021. It was key to Novak's win in AO 2021 and what is likely to be RG 2021. Nadal has not made any similar improvements, and has actually regressed.

Nadal has had an ATG career. But he needs help and needs to improve his serve ASAP. The serve would be even more critical in non clay slams - if Nadal wants to have chances to add to his tally.

This proves how pathetic Djokovic is........the highlight of Djokovic's RG career, and it was Nadal's worst level.

Nadal played the most error-prone match of his RG career, and still had Set Point to go up 2-sets-to-1........and it was a very winnable Set Point.
Nadal doesn't need to improve at all, because if this match was played an hour earlier, he'd have won (conditions slowed down later).

Nadal only needed ONE more point, for that 3rd Set.
And even after losing that 98 minute set, Nadal had the strength to go up 2-0 in the 4th Set........so imagine if he'd won the 3rd Set, he'd have a lot more energy and adrenaline flowing to put Djokovic away.

And if you look at the tournament overall, Nadal dominated his opponents, clearly playing well enough to beat Tsitsipas in the Final.
So unless you seriously think Nadal will serve 8 double-faults when he and Djokovic meet at next year's RG........Nadal is clearly headed for more RG titles.

 

[Musterrific]

This proves how pathetic Djokovic is........the highlight of Djokovic's RG career, and it was Nadal's worst level.

Nadal played the most error-prone match of his RG career, and still had Set Point to go up 2-sets-to-1........and it was a very winnable Set Point.
Nadal doesn't need to improve at all, because if this match was played an hour earlier, he'd have won (conditions slowed down later).

Nadal only needed ONE more point, for that 3rd Set.
And even after losing that 98 minute set, Nadal had the strength to go up 2-0 in the 4th Set........so imagine if he'd won the 3rd Set, he'd have a lot more energy and adrenaline flowing to put Djokovic away.

And if you look at the tournament overall, Nadal dominated his opponents, clearly playing well enough to beat Tsitsipas in the Final.
So unless you seriously think Nadal will serve 8 double-faults when he and Djokovic meet at next year's RG........Nadal is clearly headed for more RG titles.

He still would have lost in 5.

 

[TennisFan3]

He still would have lost in 5.

Yes. Likely. Nadal didn't have the endurance to stay with Novak for more than 4 hours.

 

[-NN-]

These matches are decided by inches. It is my firm belief that if Nadal has served better, he would have been broken less and been a little bit less under pressure.
That extra 5% could have been decisive and he could have played more freely. It surely cost him the match.

And what about Djokovic. His serve was problematic for a good stretch of the match and less damaging than Nadal's generally, it seemed.

Even by his own admission, the serve wasn't firing, and Nadal isn't the only dude on the court - no?

 

[GabeT]

This proves how pathetic Djokovic is........the highlight of Djokovic's RG career, and it was Nadal's worst level.

Nadal played the most error-prone match of his RG career, and still had Set Point to go up 2-sets-to-1........and it was a very winnable Set Point.
Nadal doesn't need to improve at all, because if this match was played an hour earlier, he'd have won (conditions slowed down later).

Nadal only needed ONE more point, for that 3rd Set.
And even after losing that 98 minute set, Nadal had the strength to go up 2-0 in the 4th Set........so imagine if he'd won the 3rd Set, he'd have a lot more energy and adrenaline flowing to put Djokovic away.

And if you look at the tournament overall, Nadal dominated his opponents, clearly playing well enough to beat Tsitsipas in the Final.
So unless you seriously think Nadal will serve 8 double-faults when he and Djokovic meet at next year's RG........Nadal is clearly headed for more RG titles.

You are back! Lol

 

[TennisFan3]

And what about Djokovic. His serve was problematic for a good stretch of the match and less damaging than Nadal's generally, it seemed.

Even by his own admission, the serve wasn't firing, and Nadal isn't the only dude on the court - no?

Kindly look at the stats. Djokovic's first serve was AMAZING.
However his 2nd serve was trash (less than 85 mph avg). But courtesy GOAT ground game his 2nd serve pts won % was pretty high.

His FIRST Serve though was right on the money. Faster than EVER with better placement and better % pts won. Used efficiently in +1 tennis.

Novak was BROKEN ONLY THRICE before the FINAL. What more proof do you need?

Summary: Novak serve good to GOAT level esp 1st serve. Nadal Serve - HOT GARBAGE.

 

[beard]

This proves how pathetic Djokovic is........the highlight of Djokovic's RG career, and it was Nadal's worst level.

Nadal played the most error-prone match of his RG career, and still had Set Point to go up 2-sets-to-1........and it was a very winnable Set Point.
Nadal doesn't need to improve at all, because if this match was played an hour earlier, he'd have won (conditions slowed down later).

Nadal only needed ONE more point, for that 3rd Set.
And even after losing that 98 minute set, Nadal had the strength to go up 2-0 in the 4th Set........so imagine if he'd won the 3rd Set, he'd have a lot more energy and adrenaline flowing to put Djokovic away.

And if you look at the tournament overall, Nadal dominated his opponents, clearly playing well enough to beat Tsitsipas in the Final.
So unless you seriously think Nadal will serve 8 double-faults when he and Djokovic meet at next year's RG........Nadal is clearly headed for more RG titles.

Man, you good?

 

[beard]

Kindly look at the stats. Djokovic's first serve was AMAZING.
However his 2nd serve was trash (less than 85 mph avg). But courtesy GOAT ground game his 2nd serve pts won % was pretty high.

His FIRST Serve though was right on the money. Faster than EVER with better placement and better % pts won. Used efficiently in +1 tennis.

Novak was BROKEN ONLY THRICE before the FINAL. What more proof do you need?

Summary: Novak serve good to GOAT level esp 1st serve. Nadal Serve - HOT GARBAGE.

Why Novak 2nd serves were do slow? Answer is simple. He knows he can't ace Nadal or get winner because of Nadal position on court. On the other hand Nadal don't attack weak second serves, so why to push velocity and make necessary double faults? It's Nadals fault he is not aggressive on Novak's weak services... I think this will change next time they play and you'll see Novak will do more risk at his 2nd serve including velocity...

 

[Sunny014]

Yes its baffling why he doesn't improve serve.

It is because he can't.

 

[movies99]

It is because he can't.

These champions have proved everyone wrong time and time again.