and the more natural one, the worse for Nadal...
There is common view that one-handers are somehow handicaped when playing Rafa (because of his FH)
and that this handicap is even greater on clay. What is the true?
One-handers in general have just a little better winning percentage against Nadal than two-handers (17,6% vs 17,5 %).
However when we split up the surfaces we will see great division between them.
Hard - one-handers are dominated here (21,1 % vs 23,9 %).
Clay - one-handers dominate here (9,7 % vs 7,6 %).
Grass - one-handers absolutely crush two-handers here (50 % vs 16,1 %).
So on grass it is absolutely clear. One-hander is much more effective against Rafa on grass than two-hander, or more precisly game of one-handers (often attacking one) is much more effective. Numbers like 50 % wins against 16 % wins is not something you can argue with (even without Fed it is 46,1 % wins for one-handers). It is not even surprising - slice of one handers is the most effective on grass, one-handers can better handle lower grass rebounds, the worse attaking return of one-handers is not a big issue here, Rafa's slice serve to the BH of one-handers is the least effective on the green stuff. Grass is one-handers paradise.
Clay seems to be more surprising and worth further investigation. Lets look at some more numbers:
Rafa played with 166 players on clay. 49 of them (29,5 %) were one-handers. Of all these players just 22 scored at least one win against Rafa, 10 of them (45,5 %) are one-handers. Just 7 players won two or more matches, 3 of them are one-handers (42,9 %). So again, one-handers have clear advantage here.
Maybe one-handers have wins before Nadal become top player or/and when he was not at good form. Lets look just at Rafa's good seasons, when he had 2 or less losses on clay (2005-2013, 2017, 2018 so far). In this time period one-handers had winning percentage 4,7 %, two-handers 3,5 %. Clear advantage one-handers, again.
Since 2005 (Rafa's first prime year) one-handers have 7 %, two-handers 6,1 %. Again, advantage one-handers.
Median one-hander Rafa faced on clay had ranking of 37, median two-hander ranking of 31. The two-hander were even supposed to be better and more quality opponents than one-handers! Yet still did not win as much.
All statistics shows that even on clay, one-handers play Rafa just as tough or, to be more precise, even tougher than two-handers. While it is true that Djokovic (as a player Rafa had the most problems with on clay) is two-hander, nothing points that it is more than mere coincidence.
And even with Djokovic the two-handers still loss (without Djokovic it would be catastrophe for them - since 2005 just 3,8 % won, one-handers had 7 %, almost twice as many, in that period).
Therefore it is more probable that Djokovic itself is just the exception. And the general rule is that for Rafa on clay, opponents are in this order (from the toughest): Djokovic >>>> one-handers >> two-handers.
Why do you think it is that? What is the reason one-handers are more effective against Rafa not only on grass, but also on clay? And why is everyone so sure one-handers on clay have problems with Rafa, when every bit of stats I collected poits otherwise? And why one-handers struggle so much on hard compared to natural surfaces?
It also seems, that the main reason one-handers (and especially young ones) are so rare nowadays is that by far the most common surface (hard) is the one one-handers has the most troubble with...
edit: Corrected some counting mistakes. Looks a little better for two-handers now but still bad.
There is common view that one-handers are somehow handicaped when playing Rafa (because of his FH)
and that this handicap is even greater on clay. What is the true?
One-handers in general have just a little better winning percentage against Nadal than two-handers (17,6% vs 17,5 %).
However when we split up the surfaces we will see great division between them.
Hard - one-handers are dominated here (21,1 % vs 23,9 %).
Clay - one-handers dominate here (9,7 % vs 7,6 %).
Grass - one-handers absolutely crush two-handers here (50 % vs 16,1 %).
So on grass it is absolutely clear. One-hander is much more effective against Rafa on grass than two-hander, or more precisly game of one-handers (often attacking one) is much more effective. Numbers like 50 % wins against 16 % wins is not something you can argue with (even without Fed it is 46,1 % wins for one-handers). It is not even surprising - slice of one handers is the most effective on grass, one-handers can better handle lower grass rebounds, the worse attaking return of one-handers is not a big issue here, Rafa's slice serve to the BH of one-handers is the least effective on the green stuff. Grass is one-handers paradise.
Clay seems to be more surprising and worth further investigation. Lets look at some more numbers:
Rafa played with 166 players on clay. 49 of them (29,5 %) were one-handers. Of all these players just 22 scored at least one win against Rafa, 10 of them (45,5 %) are one-handers. Just 7 players won two or more matches, 3 of them are one-handers (42,9 %). So again, one-handers have clear advantage here.
Maybe one-handers have wins before Nadal become top player or/and when he was not at good form. Lets look just at Rafa's good seasons, when he had 2 or less losses on clay (2005-2013, 2017, 2018 so far). In this time period one-handers had winning percentage 4,7 %, two-handers 3,5 %. Clear advantage one-handers, again.
Since 2005 (Rafa's first prime year) one-handers have 7 %, two-handers 6,1 %. Again, advantage one-handers.
Median one-hander Rafa faced on clay had ranking of 37, median two-hander ranking of 31. The two-hander were even supposed to be better and more quality opponents than one-handers! Yet still did not win as much.
All statistics shows that even on clay, one-handers play Rafa just as tough or, to be more precise, even tougher than two-handers. While it is true that Djokovic (as a player Rafa had the most problems with on clay) is two-hander, nothing points that it is more than mere coincidence.
And even with Djokovic the two-handers still loss (without Djokovic it would be catastrophe for them - since 2005 just 3,8 % won, one-handers had 7 %, almost twice as many, in that period).
Therefore it is more probable that Djokovic itself is just the exception. And the general rule is that for Rafa on clay, opponents are in this order (from the toughest): Djokovic >>>> one-handers >> two-handers.
Why do you think it is that? What is the reason one-handers are more effective against Rafa not only on grass, but also on clay? And why is everyone so sure one-handers on clay have problems with Rafa, when every bit of stats I collected poits otherwise? And why one-handers struggle so much on hard compared to natural surfaces?
It also seems, that the main reason one-handers (and especially young ones) are so rare nowadays is that by far the most common surface (hard) is the one one-handers has the most troubble with...
edit: Corrected some counting mistakes. Looks a little better for two-handers now but still bad.
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