I hope they don’t even though I get what you’re saying. Where do our American kids go if all these schools adopt the Baylor or Tennessee template?
US players arent doomed if they dont play in the lineup of a top 8 team. They can play lower P5 (George Harwell was a 4 star in juniors who plays 1 for Vandy-his UTR shot up in college), they can play MMs, or they can play D3 (one of son's friends who could have played D1 chose D3, was All American for D3 his freshman year, played on a National championship team, and now is in med school). Some US players are recruited for P5s, are offered low or no $, and choose to play MM instead. MM is not a bad route if team schedules vs some P5s and plays some tough fall invites-win your conference, you go to NCAAs. I know one player who played 3 for a MM-won his 1st ATP point in the 2nd Future he played while some kids who trained at USTA Nationals and played jr grand slams took up to 15 Futures to win an ATP point. Now the top P5s are the best choice if a player at 17 thinks he wants to go pro post college, but a player can still win in Future Qualis or prize $ events if they play for a 30-50+ ranked P5 team or a MM. A few years back my son, a MM player. was on court in the final round of Future Qualis sandwiched between two top SEC players/commits both who had played in jr grand slams and boarded at USTA national campus in FL; my son played public high school tennis as well as USTA-no events outside US. All 3 had won two Quali matches in an event filled with current or former college players, and all 3 lost in the final round of Qualis: the SEC freshman 2,2 to the 3rd seed- an ACC/SEC grad formerly ranked ITA #12-his opponent made the MD finals, the SEC commit 3,3 to an unseeded PAC12 grad from a top 10 team, and my son who was a 4 star when recruited lost 6-7 in 3rd to the 7th seed- then a current player on a top 10 Big12 team. The younger guys all lost to older guys with ITA rankings tho the SEC freshman already had an ITA ranking himself. However, college play had narrowed the gap that had existed in the juniors. Remember UTR and USTA/ITF rankings represent a mix of talent and opportunity. There are a lot of US players who mainly played in section, played few or no nationals who take off in college once they have regular coaching and competition. I know of a 3 star walk on who won 29 matches (20 dual)-tied his school record- his freshman year but only played in state and regional events in high school; that guy had an athletic scholarship to go along with his merit scholarship his soph year.
US players choose to play at team where you can afford to play (playing 5 or 6 at an OOS public univ may not fit the budget) and have competitive matches. If you dont go P5, find the competitive opportunities during the summer and winter breaks. The thousands you save not playing P5 when you get a good athletic/merit package elsewhere will mean you can afford to travel to summer events (until you are an upperclassmen and need to work internships-work 10 weeks and squeeze some in at the end). Many US players have to choose between P5, D1MM, and D3, and the right answer is individual to the player and family. I have seen 4/5 stars sign with top 25 teams-some of the 5s settle in at 5 or 6, most struggle to make the lineup, and many transfer. Worth a gamble if the school is in state. Even blue chips outside the top 10 (#11-25) might not make the lineup their freshman year. Play outside the top 30, even the top 75, work hard, improve, and you can have a great college experience and maybe have some upset wins, maybe even earn an ITA ranking. There are around 240 D1 teams, 29(?) conferences, 64 teams in the NCAAs. There are 12 fall regionals with about 20 teams each with a mix of p5 and MM players. With draws of 128 or 64 (usually quali with another 64), MM players get in and some win vs P5 opponents. Want to know you will get to play, want a more affordable experience, and a more balanced life? Consider all the teams 30-125 that also have decent programs in your major. While ITA only ranks top 75, collegetennisranks.com ranks all the teams using ITA algorithm.
