Next gen return stats

[George Turner]

return games won across whole career;

Hyeon Chung 27%
Sascha Zverev 24%
Borna Coric 21%
Stefanos Tsitsipas 18%
Denis Shapovalov 18%
Nick Kyrgios 17%

These return stats are simply not good enough for these players to win majors.

-Chungs serve is far too hopeless to be a factor.
-Zverevs 24% is on par with Tomas Berdych, a player with a similar standard of serve. So Zverev either has to improve his serve or return to win majors.
-Corics 21% is lacklusture for someone who thinks he's the next Djokovic. By way of comparison, Federer is at 27% while Djokovic himself is at 32%
-Tsitsipas, Shapovalov and Kyrgios would have to serve at near Karlovic levels to win majors with those return stats.

Some return stats of players who are often mocked for their return games.

Andy Roddick 20%. (90% service games won)
Goran Ivanisevic 19% (86% service games won)
Kevin Anderson 16% (87% service games won)
Milos Raonic 16% (91% service games won)

We can see here three of the most "talented" next gen (Tsitsipas, Shapo and Kyrgios) are not really much better at returning than this lot. Kyrgios is the only one who can match them at serving (holds at 88%) but he's such a headcase it doesn't matter. Tsitsipas currently holds at 85%, Shapo at 82%.

The next gen have a lot of work to do to be consistent challengers for majors.

 

[falstaff78]

You have to compare like for like.

Here is a table comparing the "next gen" with 5 seasons under their belt to a range of players in first 5 complete seasons. The upshot is that Chung, Khachanov, and Zverev seem to have sufficient return game to one day win a major. Potentially. And Coric and Kyrgios appear not to.

And here is a table comparing the younger next gen guys with only 2 complete seasons under their belts, to a range of players after their 2 seasons. The upshot is that it's too early to rule out Tsitsipas and Shapovalov on the basis of their return games. Their numbers aren't too far from Federer and Cilic at the same stage. (Assuming you give hard courts double weightage because there are two hard majors.)

 

[Zeref]

I m surprised









That Krygios even wins return games

 

[travlerajm]

Every single guy on that next gen list has a "flippy" style wristy forehand that is ok for blasting winners off weak sitters that come back in reply to his own big serves but doesn't work very well for taking the return on the rise. Compare to the much-maligned Murray forehand, which is not known for being an offensive weapon, but due to uber-high swingweight and more stable wrist coupling was perfect for stepping in to neutralize big serves.

 

[George Turner]

You have to compare like for like.

Here is a table comparing the "next gen" with 5 seasons under their belt to a range of players in first 5 complete seasons. The upshot is that Chung, Khachanov, and Zverev seem to have sufficient return game to one day win a major. Potentially. And Coric and Kyrgios appear not to.

And here is a table comparing the younger next gen guys with only 2 complete seasons under their belts, to a range of players after their 2 seasons. The upshot is that it's too early to rule out Tsitsipas and Shapovalov on the basis of their return games. Their numbers aren't too far from Federer and Cilic at the same stage. (Assuming you give hard courts double weightage because there are two hard majors.)

More detailed stats that prove my point. In both the five seasons and two seasons charts, the next genners return stats are still sub par

Kyrgios doesn't even hit 20% on clay!

 

[Backspin1183]

More detailed stats that prove my point. In both the five seasons and two seasons charts, the next genners return stats are still sub par

Kyrgios doesn't even hit 20% on clay!

Because Kyrgios clearly is too talented for that.

 

[abmk]

return games won across whole career;

Hyeon Chung 27%
Sascha Zverev 24%
Borna Coric 21%
Stefanos Tsitsipas 18%
Denis Shapovalov 18%
Nick Kyrgios 17%

These return stats are simply not good enough for these players to win majors.

-Chungs serve is far too hopeless to be a factor.
-Zverevs 24% is on par with Tomas Berdych, a player with a similar standard of serve. So Zverev either has to improve his serve or return to win majors.
-Corics 21% is lacklusture for someone who thinks he's the next Djokovic. By way of comparison, Federer is at 27% while Djokovic himself is at 32%
-Tsitsipas, Shapovalov and Kyrgios would have to serve at near Karlovic levels to win majors with those return stats.

Some return stats of players who are often mocked for their return games.

Andy Roddick 20%. (90% service games won)
Goran Ivanisevic 19% (86% service games won)
Kevin Anderson 16% (87% service games won)
Milos Raonic 16% (91% service games won)

We can see here three of the most "talented" next gen (Tsitsipas, Shapo and Kyrgios) are not really much better at returning than this lot. Kyrgios is the only one who can match them at serving (holds at 88%) but he's such a headcase it doesn't matter. Tsitsipas currently holds at 85%, Shapo at 82%.

The next gen have a lot of work to do to be consistent challengers for majors.

was surprised when I saw Coric's stat. Then I checked: he was at 26% return games won in 2018 which is fine.
was lesser in the years prior to that.

 

[Red Rick]

You have to compare like for like.

Here is a table comparing the "next gen" with 5 seasons under their belt to a range of players in first 5 complete seasons. The upshot is that Chung, Khachanov, and Zverev seem to have sufficient return game to one day win a major. Potentially. And Coric and Kyrgios appear not to.

And here is a table comparing the younger next gen guys with only 2 complete seasons under their belts, to a range of players after their 2 seasons. The upshot is that it's too early to rule out Tsitsipas and Shapovalov on the basis of their return games. Their numbers aren't too far from Federer and Cilic at the same stage. (Assuming you give hard courts double weightage because there are two hard majors.)

I've been chuckling at how half of these baseline grinding 'talents' have been much worse than Roddick at breaking for a good amount of time now.