NextGen failing to take the return game seriously

[bjsnider]

When we look at the service games won stat, there's are many nextgen guys in the top 25. Obviously, the offensive part of the game, the big serve and big forehand are important parts of the nextgen skillset. If we begin with 2018, there are 7 nextgen guys in the top 20 (if Kyrgios was counted, he'd be in the top 5): Khachanov, Tsitsipas, Thiem, Edmund, Coric, Zverev, Shapovalov. Moving on to 2019, fully half of the top 20 are nextgen guys: Opelka, Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Medvedev, Fritz, Thiem, de Minaur, Coric, and Hurkacz (should be 11/21, again, we're missing Kyrgios in the top 5). In addition to missing Kyrgios both years, in the sense that these players should appear on both lists, we are also missing Zverev, Edmund, de Minaur, and Khachanov at the very least due to injuries.

The point is, the nextgen guys seem to have no problem with the philosophy of hitting big serves and groundstrokes. What about defense? What about the return game?

Starting with 2018, we have Chung, Zverev, Coric, Thiem, and de MInaur. 5 guys in the top 20. There should be improvement in 2019, since these guys are getting better with age, right? In 2019, we have Medvedev, Zverev, Rublev, de Minaur, Thiem. 5 guys again. Additionally, in 2018, 2 of the 5 guys were in the top 10, and last season it was only Medvedev. One nextgen guy in the top 10.

How important is the return game? The #1 player in return games won in 2019 was also the world #1 player. The #2 player in return games won was also the world #2 player. Both players split the 4 majors in 2018 & 2019. Notice that Medvedev was ranked #4 in return games won in 2019, and also world #4. Murray, Nadal, and Djokovic were all in the top 20 as teens. Murray was #4 in return games won in 2006, when he was 18/19 years old.

The thing that puzzles me is, how have the young players lost the emphasis on the return game in the first place? Are return skills not being taught in juniors/academies? Whatever the reason, it's an emergency that the nextgen guys need to fix post-haste.

 

[RelentlessAttack]

There are good young returners, they’re just not the same players that are good attackers. Hard to say why everybody after delpo has been a bust

 

[a10best]

Thank you. I was pointing this out in the Shapovalov fan thread.
Out of these guys Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Medvedev, Fritz, Thiem, de Minaur, Coric, and Hurkacz.
I believe Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Coric will develop more aggressive and intelligent ROS. The other guys, especially American, think offense is the best focus like an NFL team. Pretty dumb when they had to have known the last 15 years was dominated by the big 3/4 who had great return games and defensive skills. They're just not thinking or they are but like Roddick & Blake.

 

[Markus Kaila]

The thing that puzzles me is, how have the young players lost the emphasis on the return game in the first place? Are return skills not being taught in juniors/academies? Whatever the reason, it's an emergency that the nextgen guys need to fix post-haste.

Serving is much easier to practice than returning. The service situation is practically very similar from one serve game to another, at least when it is still beginning.

The return is less predictable. The server really has the ball! Will it be the first or second serve? Absolutely impossible to be returned the 1st one or on the contrary the weak 2nd one? What would be the focus?

It is much easier to focus on your own serves. How much does that also mean that the loss of the serve game is somehow an irreplaceable failure, at least in that set, but the loss of the return game is normal even for Djokovic!

Simplified: You can safely lose 3-4 return games in a set, but losing 1-2 serve games can be fatal. Even hard training has no guarantee of great success as a returner. What can you do when the 1st serve passes past the left and right ??

The simplest is just to wait for the second serve and the tie-break!

 

[megamind]

Servebotitis is spreading

 

[van_Loederen]

return game is more difficult, but less important. if you want to get to the top, you need to have a good return too though.
Murray has an exceptional return even, but didn't manage to win a Slam for a long time because he was too passive, while his first serve and groundstrokes were pretty big actually, but that was not enough.

 

[AceSalvo]

NextGen failing to take the “game” seriously

Lol.

 

[AceSalvo]

NextGen failing to take the “game” seriously

Lol.

Another LOL at T-pass.

 

[Rovesciarete]

This was a fare-sighted thread. As a matter of fact with Thiem only one mediocre returner got a Slam - when Nadal and Federer were absent and Djokovic got ejected.

Serve+ will get you ahead at the junior level and remains incredibly important at the ATP level but without a great return you won‘t become an elite player. Unsurprisingly it was the best returner since Djokovic arrived properly who earned multiple Slams.

 

[nolefam_2024]

This was a fare-sighted thread. As a matter of fact with Thiem only one mediocre returner got a Slam - when Nadal and Federer were absent and Djokovic got ejected.

Serve+ will get you ahead at the junior level and remains incredibly important at the ATP level but without a great return you won‘t become an elite player. Unsurprisingly it was the best returner since Djokovic arrived properly who earned multiple Slams.

You seem to have completely forgotten about Medvedev. The question is Why?

 

[Rovesciarete]

You seem to have completely forgotten about Medvedev. The question is Why?

I wrote about multiple Slams, thus I didn’t forget him. He confirms my line of thinking that only a good defender or better a good returner has a high chance of bagging a Slam.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Well, Djokovic said last month about Rune's ROS:

"It's amazing. He's incredibly dynamic player, very quick, very powerful, so aggressive. He has one of the best returns that I ever faced, to be honest. Amazing return."

https://www.tennisnow.com/Blogs/NET-POSTS/November-2023/Mirror-Man-Djokovic-Sees-Himself-In-Rune.aspx#:~:text=It's%20amazing%2C%22%20Djokovic%20said%20of,%22Amazing%20return.

 

[Rovesciarete]

He returns quick, big and deep but not nearly as successful as the top4.

 

[socallefty]

Maybe the NextGen want to be like Federer whom they likely idolized growing up. Fed is #8 on the ATP career serve leaderboard and #100 on the career return leaderboard.

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.

www.atptour.com

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.

www.atptour.com

 

[Jonas78]

Maybe the NextGen want to be like Federer whom they likely idolized growing up. Fed is #8 on the ATP career serve leaderboard and #100 on the career return leaderboard.

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.

www.atptour.com

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.

www.atptour.com

That stat is meaningless, Roger was an excellent returner. If you combine all surfaces stats gets messed up by a lot of clay courters, because you win a lot more return points on clay.

On HC Riger is 37th of all time on return games won. On grass 34th.

Even more, on 1st return points won, he is 14th of all time on grass, and 17th on HC.

He was extremely good on returning 1st serves in an aggressive way, and winning points on the opponenents 1st serve.

It finally seems the youngsters is getting this, Sinner/Alcaraz are way better returners than the former post-Djokodal players.

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Leaders

Tennis statistics leaders by more than 100 figures filtered by various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

 

[Rovesciarete]

That stat is meaningless, Roger was an excellent returner. If you combine all surfaces stats gets messed up by a lot of clay courters, because you win a lot more return points on clay.

Surface bias is a big problem and on clay returns are the most similar to normal groundstrokes.

On HC Riger is 37th of all time on return games won. On grass 34th.

Even more, on 1st return points won, he is 14th of all time on grass, and 17th on HC.

He was extremely good on returning 1st serves in an aggressive way, and winning points on the opponenents 1st serve.

The SABR reflects not only a tactical choice but also Roger’s abilities. The old next gen really dropped the ball when it came to returning.

 

[Jonas78]

Surface bias is a big problem and on clay returns are the most similar to normal groundstrokes.



The SABR reflects not only a tactical choice but also Roger’s abilities. The old next gen really dropped the ball when it came to returning.

Yeah the top 5 on the return leaderboard are clay court specialists . Suddenly you have people claiming Rafa is the best returner in history lol. I like Rafa a lot more than Djokovic, both as player and person, but he is NOT among the best returners in history. He is an excellent baseliner though, which will make return stats good, especially on clay.

 

[nolefam_2024]

.

 

[Jonas78]

No no
no no no

Rafa is not more than Djokovic as a player

Despite his accusations, he had to accept he is lesser than Djokovic as a player. As a person, I don't care.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/20/sport/rafael-nadal-novak-djokovic-best-tennis-player-in-history-spt-intl/index.html

I didnt mean like that. Djokovic is the best player in history, he has all the records. That doesnt mean he is exciting to watch

 

[nolefam_2024]

I didnt mean like that. Djokovic is the best player in history, he has all the records. That doesnt mean he is exciting to watch

i stand corrected

 

[jm1980]

Yeah the top 5 on the return leaderboard are clay court specialists . Suddenly you have people claiming Rafa is the best returner in history lol. I like Rafa a lot more than Djokovic, both as player and person, but he is NOT among the best returners in history. He is an excellent baseliner though, which will make return stats good, especially on clay.

The ATP return ratings have to be adjusted for surface distribution. You shouldn't be anywhere the top of a best returners list if 80% of your matches were played on clay

 

[Jonas78]

The ATP return ratings have to be adjusted for surface distribution. You shouldn't be anywhere the top of a best returners list if 80% of your matches were played on clay

You have to look at it surface for surface imo. The leaderboard are full of clay court specialists, it makes no sense when games played are unevenly distributed among surfaces.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Standing deep on clay allows players like Nadal to return more a lá groundstroke. Roger was especially good on the other side of the spectrum, as befitted his nature and style.

 

[Jonas78]

Standing deep on clay allows players like Nadal to return more a lá groundstroke. Roger was especially good on the other side of the spectrum, as befitted his nature and style.

Yes. If the same players also had the top return stats on HC/grass, it wouldnt matter that much, but its not.

Its funny how people think Roger wasnt an absolute top returner. If you look at 2006 he is 3rd on return games won% on grass and 6th on HC. On 1st return points won% he is 4th on HC and 5th on grass. He was amazing at returning those 1st serves on HC/grass.

It might sound weird, but generally i think his serve is somewhat overrated and his return is way underrated. Pete had a better serve imo, and of course most of the tall players had a better serve.

The post-Djokodal generations have been terrible on return for some reason, now it finally seems its changing a bit, with Alcaraz/Sinner, and also Medvedev on HC.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Yes. If the same players also had the top return stats on HC/grass, it wouldnt matter that much, but its not.

Return points won are a combination of return and overall skill. First serve return points won on hard and grass are possibly the purest expression of return quality we can get out of aggregate ’output’ stats.

Its funny how people think Roger wasnt an absolute top returner. If you look at 2006 he is 3rd on return games won% on grass and 6th on HC. On 1st return points won% he is 4th on HC and 5th on grass. He was amazing at returning those 1st serves on HC/grass.

It might sound weird, but generally i think his serve is somewhat overrated and his return is way underrated. Pete had a better serve imo, and of course most of the tall players had a better serve.

I think the casual fan underestimates Roger’s serve and his return as well. Among the international tennis community your point might stand. 2006 was interestingly also the only time that Federer was part of the top 5 club of holding and breaking.