Nitto ATP Finals 2025 - Turin

Who wins the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals?

  • Alcaraz wins his first ATP Finals title

    Votes: 7 20.6%

  • Sinner defends his title

    Votes: 21 61.8%

  • Zverev wins a third YEC

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Djokovic extends his record to 8

    Votes: 1 2.9%

  • Shelton wins on his debut

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Fritz goes one better than last year

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • de Minaur wins a first big title

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Auger-Aliassime goes all the way

    Votes: 1 2.9%

  • Musetti not only makes his first YEC, but even lifts the trophy

    Votes: 1 2.9%

  • Bublik becomes the least likely winner in ATP Finals History

    Votes: 3 8.8%
  • Total voters
    34
  • Poll closed .
mightyjeditribble

mightyjeditribble

Legend
Nitto ATP Finals 2025
Turin, November 9-16
Inalpi Arena

Home | Nitto ATP Finals | Tennis

Live scores, draws, group standings, news, video, players and more from the tennis season finale in Turin, Italy, 13-20 November.
www.nittoatpfinals.com www.nittoatpfinals.com

Final edit(updated 08/11/2025):


Qualified players
1. Alcaraz (11050)
2. Sinner (10000)
3. Zverev (4960)
4. Djokovic (4830)
5. Shelton (3970)
6. Fritz (3935)
7. de Minaur (3935)
8. Auger-Aliassime (3845)
9. Musetti (3800)

Alternates:
10. Draper
11. Bublik
12. Ruud/ 13. Medvedev/ 14. Fokina

Group Jimmy Connors:
Alcaraz
Fritz
de Minaur
Musetti

Group Björn Borg:
Sinner
Zverev
Shelton
Auger-Aliassime

Alcaraz combined h2h against RR opponents: 14-2

Sinner combined h2h against RR opponents: 15-7

https://twitter.com/x/status/1987310564885041238

Opening singles matches:
Sunday 09 November:
Alcaraz v de Minaur
Zverev v Shelton

Monday 10 November:
Musetti v Fritz
Sinner v Auger-Aliassime


Analysis:
All eyes will be on the #1 race - if Alcaraz reaches the final or wins all three RR matches, he is YE#1. Sinner needs to win the title against someone other than Alcaraz in order to regain YE#1, and to win at least one more RR match than Alcaraz does.

The only participant outside the top two to have beaten either Sinner or Alcaraz this year is Fritz, I think - and that was at the Laver Cup. Can they each sweep their group? Alcaraz's indoors form is more suspect than Sinner's.

Nobody can get even close to the top 2 in points, but all of the remaining places could trade places. Shelton, AdM and Musetti/FAA, could crack the top 5 and reach a new career high. Everyone, including Musetti, could theoretically still rise to #3 (although Zed would have to play a shocker of a tournament).



Previous state of the race (for the record, as of the original post on 19/10/2025):

Qualified players
1. Carlos Alcaraz
2. Jannik Sinner
3. Novak Djokokvic

Current occupants of remaining places, with points
4. Zverev (4280)
5. Fritz (3835)
6. Shelton (3720)
7. de Minaur (3545)
8. Musetti (3485)

Contenders within 1000 points of 9-th place in the race
9. Auger-Aliassime (3060)
10. Draper (2990)
11. Ruud (2735)
12. Rune (2590)
13. Medvedev (2560)
14. Rublev (2420)
15. Bublik (2395)
16. Lehečka (2315)
17. Fokina (2255)
18. Khachanov (2220)
19. Menšík (2140)
20. Paul (2100)
 
Last edited:
dking68 said:
JANNIK SINNER (ITA) TO DEFEND THE TITLE
Click to expand...
He's the favourite for sure, as things stand. It will be interesting to see whether we get a Sincaraz final in Paris, to see what Carlos can do indoors against Jannik.

I'll add a poll when the participants are known, or perhaps when the groups are out. Whether Djokovic plays is a big question.
 
mightyjeditribble said:
He's the favourite for sure, as things stand. It will be interesting to see whether we get a Sincaraz final in Paris, to see what Carlos can do indoors against Jannik.

I'll add a poll when the participants are known, or perhaps when the groups are out. Whether Djokovic plays is a big question.
Click to expand...
I don't think he will do much of anything, especially how homeboy is playing at home.
 
Sinner will not lose a single match in this, and probably not a single set aside from Carlos. I suspect he will own the finals for years to come, and especially when it's in his backyard.
 
4UTRMoutet said:
Sinner will not lose a single match in this, and probably not a single set aside from Carlos. I suspect he will own the finals for years to come, and especially when it's in his backyard.
Click to expand...
Yes I predict this will be one of his best tournaments. I think he will enjoy these tournaments the most:

1. ATP Finals
2. Australian Open
3. Miami Open
4. Cincinnati Masters
 
4UTRMoutet said:
Sinner will not lose a single match in this, and probably not a single set aside from Carlos. I suspect he will own the finals for years to come, and especially when it's in his backyard.
Click to expand...
Nice to see Sinner fans confident.

It is a bit early though to talk about the winner. Let's see how the run up in the indoor season plays out. As a Carlos fan, of course I'd like to see him win, but he still has to show that he can beat a player of Sinner's calibre indoors.

I see no reason that his game shouldn't work indoors though - his natural attacking instincts should really serve him well. He just hasn't fully figured things out yet, I think.

If he has another mediocre run in Paris, Sinner will start the Finals as a huge favourite. But if Carlos can have a deep run in Paris, who knows ... :)
 
dking68 said:
Yes I predict this will be one of his best tournaments. I think he will enjoy these tournaments the most:

1. ATP Finals
2. Australian Open
3. Miami Open
4. Cincinnati Masters
Click to expand...
If my senses tell me that Alcaraz is going to keep on struggling post USO like Nadal did then I would think that Sinner would prefer Shanghai/Paris over Miami and Cincy
 
mightyjeditribble said:
Nitto ATP Finals 2025
Turin, November 9-16
Inalpi Arena

Home | Nitto ATP Finals | Tennis

Live scores, draws, group standings, news, video, players and more from the tennis season finale in Turin, Italy, 13-20 November.
www.nittoatpfinals.com www.nittoatpfinals.com

The ATP Finals are still some weeks a way, but I thought it might make sense to make a thread early, in order to be able to discuss qualification scenarios along the way. I hope this makes sense!

State of the race (as of 19/10/2025):

Qualified players
1. Carlos Alcaraz
2. Jannik Sinner
3. Novak Djokokvic

Current occupants of remaining places, with points
4. Zverev (4280)
5. Fritz (3835)
6. Shelton (3720)
7. de Minaur (3545)
8. Musetti (3485)

Contenders within 1000 points of 9-th place in the race
9. Auger-Aliassime (3060)
10. Draper (2990)
11. Ruud (2735)
12. Rune (2590)
13. Medvedev (2560)
14. Rublev (2420)
15. Bublik (2395)
16. Lehečka (2315)
17. Fokina (2255)
18. Khachanov (2220)
19. Menšík (2140)
20. Paul (2100)

(I don't think Rune has officially ended his season, but given his injury and surgery, there does not seem to be any way for him to qualify in time for the Tour Finals.)

Players could still gain up to 1750 points in theory, so there are more players still in contention mathematically, but . Also, there is some doubt of Djokovic's participation/fitness, and perhaps Shelton's too to a lesser extent. If a player drops out, then the race for the final place becomes even more open. FAA, Ruud and Medvedev have strenghtened their bids to qualify by winning their respective tournaments. But they still probably need a title run at one of the ATP500s this week (Vienna, Basel) or a strong run (F/SF) in the Paris Masters to break into the top 8. Probably they also need one or more of the people occupying the top spots to falter. Musetti has not been having the best results on the hard courts, so FAA may have a chance to close the gap or even get into 8th place with a win in Basel this week. But even if he manages to do that, would he still have anything left in the tank for Paris? Ruud and Medvedev are further beyond, and basically need to win Paris - or win Basel/Vienna and make a run to the final in Paris - to get into contention, unless there are withdrawals.

The more likely scenario is that FAA, Ruud and Medvedev - this week's three winners - will race between each other to occupy the two alternate places (and to keep ahead of the chasing players). If FAA or Ruud has a good run this week in Basel and Musetti bombs badly, it could put them into contention for that #8 spot, however.
Click to expand...
Rune and Paul have officially ended their seasons.

Rublev and Khachanov have lost this week. I think we can count them safely out of contention if they weren't before (neither can pass FAA unless they win Paris - which isn't happening). It still seems as though it will come down to FAA, Ruud and Medvedev - the latter probably has to win Vienna in order to stay in contention. (That he is in contention at all is rather amazing, given where he stood a month or so ago ...)
 
The race is pretty much run, it seems. There is unlikely to be a change in the first ten players after Paris, unless one of the contenders reaches at least the final. FAA is down to play Metz, so if he gains enough on Musetti in Paris, he could make a last push. But he has played a lot of tennis recently; I think it's unlikely that he can get one of the main qualifying places.

If Djokovic did drop out, then it's not clear who will get the second alternate spot. Otherwise, the field is set barring surprises in Paris, I think.
 
mightyjeditribble said:
The race is pretty much run, it seems. There is unlikely to be a change in the first ten players after Paris, unless one of the contenders reaches at least the final. FAA is down to play Metz, so if he gains enough on Musetti in Paris, he could make a last push. But he has played a lot of tennis recently; I think it's unlikely that he can get one of the main qualifying places.

If Djokovic did drop out, then it's not clear who will get the second alternate spot. Otherwise, the field is set barring surprises in Paris, I think.
Click to expand...
It'll be super-funny if Djok both plays and wins it. Not likely, of course.
 
dking68 said:
Probably, but if we’re being honest I think Gramps needs to be packing. He will be 39 at Roland Garros and I can’t see him winning another slam or big title.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins Athens, just as he did in Geneva. There’s always a Hurkacz waiting in the draw for him among today’s bunch.
 
roysid said:
Djokovic is likely to withdraw. Then it becomes interesting who grabs the last spot. 9-11 in race currently are very close
Click to expand...

Not that close. Ruud would need to at least reach the Paris final to overtake FAA (or have a good run in Paris and then win one of the 250s the next week).
 
By losing in Paris, Ruud's chances of qualifying directly for the Finals are over. He's still in the second alternate spot, but could be overtaken by Medvedev or Fokina with a run to the semis.

Félix is sitting pretty securely in 9th and is guaranteed to be 1st alternate (or direct replacement if Djokovic or someone else drops out pre-tournament), unless one of the other contenders such as Medvedev wins the Paris title.
 
mightyjeditribble said:
By losing in Paris, Ruud's chances of qualifying directly for the Finals are over. He's still in the second alternate spot, but could be overtaken by Medvedev or Fokina with a run to the semis.

Félix is sitting pretty securely in 9th and is guaranteed to be 1st alternate (or direct replacement if Djokovic or someone else drops out pre-tournament), unless one of the other contenders such as Medvedev wins the Paris title.
Click to expand...
So, with Moose out, can Felix sneak into #8 if he makes the semis here? That's what it looks like to me on the ATP site.
 
Winners or Errors said:
So, with Moose out, can Felix sneak into #8 if he makes the semis here? That's what it looks like to me on the ATP site.
Click to expand...
I think he needs to make the final.

Shelton is now up to 5th and very close to qualifying. If he won the title, he would actually pass Djokovic (and Zed if he lost on QF). But he's unlikely to go any further of course, with Sinner in his way.

Bublik and Medvedev are keeping their long-shot bids alive. Neither can actually move to a qualifying position this week, but if Félix loses in the QF either would move into 9th with a title run.

AdM is tied on points with Taylor "The Puppet" Fritz and would overtake him with a win against Bublik in the QF.
 
What is the minimum result Sinner must achieve in Paris to remain in contention for the year-end No. 1 heading into Turin?
(Assuming none of the contenders plays in Athens or Metz.)
 
Sudacafan said:
What is the minimum result Sinner must achieve in Paris to remain in contention for the year-end No. 1 heading into Turin?
(Assuming none of the contenders plays in Athens or Metz.)
Click to expand...
After beating Shelton, Sinner needs to win just one more match. That would put his Race points at 9,650, which is 1,400 behind Alcaraz's 11,050. Sinner can make up a max of 1,500 at the WTF if he wins every match and Alcaraz loses every match.

Of course, Sinner is in a better position if he wins the Paris final too. That also would restore him to no. 1 in the rankings briefly.
 
mightyjeditribble said:
Nitto ATP Finals 2025
Turin, November 9-16
Inalpi Arena

Home | Nitto ATP Finals | Tennis

Live scores, draws, group standings, news, video, players and more from the tennis season finale in Turin, Italy, 13-20 November.
www.nittoatpfinals.com www.nittoatpfinals.com

The ATP Finals are still some weeks a way, but I thought it might make sense to make a thread early, in order to be able to discuss qualification scenarios along the way. I hope this makes sense!

State of the race (as of 19/10/2025):

Qualified players
1. Carlos Alcaraz
2. Jannik Sinner
3. Novak Djokokvic

Current occupants of remaining places, with points
4. Zverev (4280)
5. Fritz (3835)
6. Shelton (3720)
7. de Minaur (3545)
8. Musetti (3485)

Contenders within 1000 points of 9-th place in the race
9. Auger-Aliassime (3060)
10. Draper (2990)
11. Ruud (2735)
12. Rune (2590)
13. Medvedev (2560)
14. Rublev (2420)
15. Bublik (2395)
16. Lehečka (2315)
17. Fokina (2255)
18. Khachanov (2220)
19. Menšík (2140)
20. Paul (2100)

(I don't think Rune has officially ended his season, but given his injury and surgery, there does not seem to be any way for him to qualify in time for the Tour Finals.)

Players could still gain up to 1750 points in theory, so there are more players still in contention mathematically, but . Also, there is some doubt of Djokovic's participation/fitness, and perhaps Shelton's too to a lesser extent. If a player drops out, then the race for the final place becomes even more open. FAA, Ruud and Medvedev have strenghtened their bids to qualify by winning their respective tournaments. But they still probably need a title run at one of the ATP500s this week (Vienna, Basel) or a strong run (F/SF) in the Paris Masters to break into the top 8. Probably they also need one or more of the people occupying the top spots to falter. Musetti has not been having the best results on the hard courts, so FAA may have a chance to close the gap or even get into 8th place with a win in Basel this week. But even if he manages to do that, would he still have anything left in the tank for Paris? Ruud and Medvedev are further beyond, and basically need to win Paris - or win Basel/Vienna and make a run to the final in Paris - to get into contention, unless there are withdrawals.

The more likely scenario is that FAA, Ruud and Medvedev - this week's three winners - will race between each other to occupy the two alternate places (and to keep ahead of the chasing players). If FAA or Ruud has a good run this week in Basel and Musetti bombs badly, it could put them into contention for that #8 spot, however.
Click to expand...
Sinner.
:cool:
 
Why djokovi doesnt announce his decision. Last year he quit at the last minute prompting a bunch of withdrawals for those who qualified
 
roysid said:
Why djokovi doesnt announce his decision. Last year he quit at the last minute prompting a bunch of withdrawals for those who qualified
Click to expand...

He's probably waiting to see how he fares in Athens especially how well his body will hold up.
 
How does Fritz qualify which atptour had announced.
He has 3935 points the same as deminaur
Then faa at 3685 and museti at 3845 all has chance to cross him as they can cross him next week
 
Alcaraz has no choice but to defend the year-end No. 1 ranking on his own. There’s no one he can delegate that task to.
 
EddieChang said:
first of all thats not mathematically possible. secondly there are a bunch of rules that breaks a hypothetical tie like points in slams in masters 1000 and fewer tournament played
Click to expand...
I fail to understand why its only between museti and faa now.
How Fritz and deminaur qualified ? Even ATP website says fritz has qualified. Wikipedia and commentators saying both fritz and deminaur has qualified. But how.

Both are at 3935 points.
Faa is at 3845 points. If we wins in final, he goes to 4195 and qualifies. If he loses, he plays metz 250

Museti is at 3685 points. He plays Athens next week.

Both museti and faa can cross fritz, demon and even Shelton who is at 3970 points.
In that case, one of Fritz and deminaur doesnt qualify .
What am I missing?
 
roysid said:
I fail to understand why its only between museti and faa now.
How Fritz and deminaur qualified ? Even ATP website says fritz has qualified. Wikipedia and commentators saying both fritz and deminaur has qualified. But how.

Both are at 3935 points.
Faa is at 3845 points. If we wins in final, he goes to 4195 and qualifies. If he loses, he plays metz 250

Museti is at 3685 points. He plays Athens next week.

Both museti and faa can cross fritz, demon and even Shelton who is at 3970 points.
In that case, one of Fritz and deminaur doesnt qualify .
What am I missing?
Click to expand...
Only a certain number of tournaments count (4 slams + 8 mandatory masters (3 of which can be replaced by results from other events) + 7 other best results + WTF (not applicable here)). Musetti cannot gain 250 point but 240 because a tournament in which he got 10 points gets dropped. He will be 10 point short from 3935.
 
Last edited:
EddieChang said:
Only a certain number of tournaments count (4 slams + 8 mandatory masters (3 of which can be replaced by results from other events) + 7 other best results + WTF (not applicable here)). Musetti cannot gain 250 point but 240 because a tournament in which he got 10 points gets dropped. He will be 10 point short from 3935. It's pretty easy to google the rule
Click to expand...
Thank you for explanation. The rule is quite complicated but ultimately holds the key.
Your post gives the impression that sane tournament point counts twice, but not the case.
Once a masters point got replaced by non masters tourney points, that tournament point dont count anymore in +7 other best results
In museti s case, he exactly has 7 tourneys now other than mandatory 8 masters. Currently shanghais 10 point stands. Once he plays athens, its the 8th tournament. So one of those tournament point replaces shanghai and the 10 points gone.
Quite complicated
Thank goodness next year they wont count the tournament point after paris for immediate qualification
 
roysid said:
Thank you for explanation. The rule is quite complicated but ultimately holds the key.
Your post gives the impression that sane tournament point counts twice, but not the case.
Once a masters point got replaced by non masters tourney points, that tournament point dont count anymore in +7 other best results
In museti s case, he exactly has 7 tourneys now other than mandatory 8 masters. Currently shanghais 10 point stands. Once he plays athens, its the 8th tournament. So one of those tournament point replaces shanghai and the 10 points gone.
Quite complicated
Thank goodness next year they wont count the tournament point after paris for immediate qualification
Click to expand...
Ye now that I think about it it's complicated (but my day job is looking at rules all day lol). The main problem with counting the tornament after paris is that people keep withdrawing after asking for wild cards. It happened happened this year with Medvedev and last year with a few players. And if lets say FAA loses the Paris final but qualifies after making the SF at the 250 event he might just withdraw giving a walkover like Rybakina
 
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