No matter what happens in the clay season - Nadal will win the French Open

[thomasferrett]

One only needs to look to last year to see that Nadal is playing better this year than he was last year.

Last year he lost to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, and lost to Almagro in Barcelona.

This year he beat Ferrer in Monte Carlo and this year he beat Almagro in Barcelona.

So Nadal is playing better than last year, and still he managed to win the French Open last year. That suggests that this year he will win it even easier than he won it last year. Djokovic only took one set off him last year, so the pattern suggests that this time Nadal will win in straights to claim his 10th French Open.

Class is temporary, form is permanent.

Even if Nadal doesn't win a single game from here until the French Open - the smart money is overwhelming in favor of him winning the French Open - somethnig just changes when it's best of 5.

Nadal is heaps fitter than any player on tour - even Djokovic, so the longer the match goes on, the more he is favored. No-one touches him in best of 5.

 

[Krish872007]

You sound a bit like tennis_commentator with your undying confidence in the man himself...

 

[torpantennis]

But now we have Fognini. If he improved this year, then he must've lost three times to Fognini in 2014?

 

[helterskelter]

One only needs to look to last year to see that Nadal is playing better this year than he was last year.

Last year he lost to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, and lost to Almagro in Barcelona.

This year he beat Ferrer in Monte Carlo and this year he beat Almagro in Barcelona.

So Nadal is playing better than last year, and still he managed to win the French Open last year.

While I think there is something in what you say about Nadal and Roland Garros, it's worth noting that Almagro is playing much, much worse than he was a year ago. He suffered a far more serious injury than Nadal did, and has found it even harder to come back from it.

 

[Sir Percival Blakeney]

You sound a bit like tennis_commentator with your undying confidence in the man himself...

 

[Tiger8]

One only needs to look to last year to see that Nadal is playing better this year than he was last year.

Last year he lost to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, and lost to Almagro in Barcelona.

This year he beat Ferrer in Monte Carlo and this year he beat Almagro in Barcelona.

So Nadal is playing better than last year, and still he managed to win the French Open last year. That suggests that this year he will win it even easier than he won it last year. Djokovic only took one set off him last year, so the pattern suggests that this time Nadal will win in straights to claim his 10th French Open.

Class is temporary, form is permanent.

Even if Nadal doesn't win a single game from here until the French Open - the smart money is overwhelming in favor of him winning the French Open - somethnig just changes when it's best of 5.

Nadal is heaps fitter than any player on tour - even Djokovic, so the longer the match goes on, the more he is favored. No-one touches him in best of 5.

...........

 

[Deleted member 307496]

I'd like to believe it, but I see a different Rafa than the one from the years previous.

Even in 2009 he was better than he is right now.

 

[Backspin1183]

Even if he doesn't, he will come back to win more. When things are going bad for you, everything looks hopeless. But that is just a phase you go through. He will his moments of glory again. He is not done yet.

 

[mistik]

He looks awful and clay courts cant save him. He looks even worse on clay nowadays.

 

[r2473]

No matter what happens in the clay season - Nadal will win the French Open

Shush!! We all have to pretend that Barcelona matters. At least for one day.

But yes, of course. It's the same as it's been since 2011 or so. The only guy that can beat him at Roland Garros is Djokovic. And this year, he probably will. Mostly because of how well Djokovic is playing, but maybe a bit because of Nadal.

 

[Rjtennis]

Shush!! We all have to pretend that Barcelona matters. At least for one day.

But yes, of course. It's the same as it's been since 2011 or so. The only guy that can beat him at Roland Garros is Djokovic. And this year, he probably will. Mostly because of how well Djokovic is playing, but maybe a bit because of Nadal.

At his current level other players besides Novak can nock him off. He still has time to round into form though. I'm certainly not betting against Nadal at the french, but this is nowhere near the dominant clay court level we have seen in the past. Nadal hasn't played great for almost a year now and that needs to change if he is going to win RG once again. His track record says he will turn it around but who knows.

 

[JanowiczJ]

One only needs to look to last year to see that Nadal is playing better this year than he was last year.

Last year he lost to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, and lost to Almagro in Barcelona.

This year he beat Ferrer in Monte Carlo and this year he beat Almagro in Barcelona.

So Nadal is playing better than last year, and still he managed to win the French Open last year. That suggests that this year he will win it even easier than he won it last year. Djokovic only took one set off him last year, so the pattern suggests that this time Nadal will win in straights to claim his 10th French Open.

Class is temporary, form is permanent.

Even if Nadal doesn't win a single game from here until the French Open - the smart money is overwhelming in favor of him winning the French Open - somethnig just changes when it's best of 5.

Nadal is heaps fitter than any player on tour - even Djokovic, so the longer the match goes on, the more he is favored. No-one touches him in best of 5.

I think this gentleman here has a point.

 

[mistik]

I'd like to believe it, but I see a different Rafa than the one from the years previous.

Even in 2009 he was better than he is right now.

Couldnt agree with you more. Sadly everything about him on court looks so negative this year.

 

[torpantennis]

I think this gentleman here has a point.

Just ONE lone top 10 win in almost a year is the only point there is to it.

 

[JanowiczJ]

Just ONE lone top 10 win in almost a year is the only point there is to it.

He's a troll, torpantennis. and a lazy troll. Not funny at all. He just reworded a previous OP.

 

[Algo]

Keep the jinxing coming.

 

[Noleberic123]

One only needs to look to last year to see that Nadal is playing better this year than he was last year.

Last year he lost to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, and lost to Almagro in Barcelona.

This year he beat Ferrer in Monte Carlo and this year he beat Almagro in Barcelona.

So Nadal is playing better than last year, and still he managed to win the French Open last year. That suggests that this year he will win it even easier than he won it last year. Djokovic only took one set off him last year, so the pattern suggests that this time Nadal will win in straights to claim his 10th French Open.

Class is temporary, form is permanent.

Even if Nadal doesn't win a single game from here until the French Open - the smart money is overwhelming in favor of him winning the French Open - somethnig just changes when it's best of 5.

Nadal is heaps fitter than any player on tour - even Djokovic, so the longer the match goes on, the more he is favored. No-one touches him in best of 5.

I strongly disagree with that. Nadal is not fitter than djokovic.

 

[mistik]

I strongly disagree with that. Nadal is not fitter than djokovic.

Back in 07 and 08 you can argue Rafa was stronger physically. NOT ANYMORE thats the most important thing.

 

[augustobt]

It's 2014 written all over again. Same old story.

 

[Noleberic123]

Back in 07 and 08 you can argue Rafa was stronger physically. NOT ANYMORE thats the most important thing.

Exactly. I think djokovic has been fitter than him for the last few years to be honest

 

[spinovic]

Losing to Fognini in Barcelona is tough. Still, write him off at your own peril. At RG, Fognini would have still needed to win a third set.

I'm sticking with my prediction - Rafa either loses in the R16 or before, or he wins a 10th RG.

 

[britam25]

Lol, first the OP said that ******* would clean up on the dirt, now, bad results there don't matter, and he's gonna kick *** at RG. Good luck with that...

 

[veroniquem]

I disagree with "no matter what happens". He needs a good run in 1 of the remaining masters. Last year he won Madrid and made final in Rome. Imo, he will not pull an RG win out of a hat. He needs at least 1 convincing clay event before RG. I'm sure he knows that and that's why he's so nervous right now because as things stand, it certainly doesn't seem a given that it will happen.

 

[90's Clay]

I don't know about that anymore. Nadal has declined BIG time this year. The main root of his game revolves around speed and movement and he just doesn't have either on a big enough stage to be a favorite.

I think his best chance is to become more aggressive like 2010 and put the opponent more on the defensive and go for more

 

[moonballs]

Nadal heaps fitter than the rest of the tour? Not what I noticed.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

I don't know about that anymore. Nadal has declined BIG time this year. The main root of his game revolves around speed and movement and he just doesn't have either on a big enough stage to be a favorite.

I think his best chance is to become more aggressive like 2010 and put the opponent more on the defensive and go for more

He needs his reaction time for that. He needs to get around every backhand. It's way too easy to get to his backhand now.

 

[TTMR]

Nadal will repeatedly hit heavy topspin forehands to Djokovic's backhand, and although Djokovic has a great backhand, even the best backhands are not as good as Nadal's topspin forehand, particularly on clay, and most particularly at Roland Garros. If the match is looking to go Djokovic's way, Nadal will change strategies, and hit with even more topspin to Djokovic's backhand, thereby turning the tide. Ergo, Nadal's forehand will eventually break down Djokovic's backhand and Nadal will consequently win the French Open.

 

[torpantennis]

Nadal will repeatedly hit heavy topspin forehands to Djokovic's backhand, and although Djokovic has a great backhand, even the best backhands are not as good as Nadal's topspin forehand, particularly on clay, and most particularly at Roland Garros. If the match is looking to go Djokovic's way, Nadal will change strategies, and hit with even more topspin to Djokovic's backhand, thereby turning the tide. Ergo, Nadal's forehand will eventually break down Djokovic's backhand and Nadal will consequently win the French Open.

Problem is, Nadal will lose to Fogninis before getting to Djokovic.

 

[NGM]

Hat off to OP. You must hate Nadal to your bone.

 

[Farael_Danal]

I am so embarrassed with this thread no? For sure I beat Ferrer and Almagro, but I never is the favorite in anything. I gonna do my best to qualify for Roland Garros.

 

[Sentinel]

LOL, Maggie Smith!!! where is this from ? Downton Abbey ?

 

[NGM]

Your faith in Nadal is like Christian in Jesus.
If Nadal could pull it off this time I think he is embody of god. His 10th RG - if that actually happened - could only be described as magic.

 

[Nostradamus]

like I said, all good things come to an end

 

[sbengte]

Your faith in Nadal is like Christian in Jesus.
If Nadal could pull it off this time I think he is embody of god. His 10th RG - if that actually happened - could only be described as magic.

We have seen this happen over and over again starting 2010 and yet people expect a different outcome this year ? Nadal can stink up the tournies leading up to the FO and will still be a favorite at the FO thanks to the draws and format of the competition.

Sample this one from 2010. Nadal was coming back from a slump (essentially the same crisis of confidence as current times) and look who he faced at the FO. :

Gianni Mina (655), Horacio Zeballos (44), Lleyton Hewitt (33), Thomaz Bellucci (29), Nicolas Almagro (21), Jurgen Melzer (27), Robin Soderling (7)

And then 2011:
John Isner (39), Pablo Andujar (48 ), Antonio Veic (227), Ivan Ljubicic (37), Robin Soderling (5), Andy Murray (4), Roger Federer (3)

(Yep, it the same Andjujar who played the first set brilliantly, was 5-2,40-0 up and then blew a dozen SPs and imploded)

Or this one from 2012 :
Simone Bolelli (111), Denis Istomin (43), Eduardo Schwank (192), Juan Monaco (15), Nicolas Almagro (13), David Ferrer (6), Novak Djokovic (SRB) (1)

Or this one from 2014:
Robby Ginepri (279), Dominic Thiem (57),Leonardo Mayer (65), Dusan Lajovic (83), David Ferrer (5), Andy Murray (8 ), Novak Djokovic (2),

The names this year will be slightly different but the quality of players will be the same. Think Robredo, Simon, Almagro , Monaco etc.Now you tell me who will take 3 sets off Nadal ? I can't see a single name there. Not even Nishikori (and he will likely be in the other half and/or will be dead exhausted if he gets to a point where he will face Nadal given the history of his stamina issues).

Of course Djoko is there but there is no guarantee he will be in the draw long enough to face Nadal or that he himself won't turn unrecognizable while playing Nadal like he did in 2012 or 2014. Ferrer's best chance was last year and it was unfortunate he suffered from some kind of flu during the QF which led to an uncharacteristic collapse after set 1. This year, he already looks jaded and I hope he won't have an early loss at RG.

What people don't realize is that all the Isners or Daniel Brands' or Klizans can give Nadal a bit of a scare and take a set but will implode soon after. It is a recurring pattern and people learn nothing from that.

 

[NGM]

We have seen this happen over and over again starting 2010 and yet people expect a different outcome this year ? Nadal can stink up the tournies leading up to the FO and will still be a favorite at the FO thanks to the draws and format of the competition.

I don't believe it.

Winning slams is not an easy task for anyone. Nadal made it look easy because he was too superior on clay, not because winning French Open is easy itself.

Assuming that because Nadal has done it every time so he will do it again no matter what happened before French Open is a kind of worship. All consequence has its cause. Thing just doesn't happen for no reason.

All signs from last year and this year point out that Nadal is not the player he once was anymore. He is not half as good as he has been from 2008-2013. He is weakest version of Nadal that we have ever known. He is ageing badly and more closer to retirement than winning another slam. He can get the easiest draw in the world and sill lose. When you go down, the small hill would be seen as Everest.

 

[Vegito]

Class is temporary, form is permanent.

It´s not the opposite ?