No next ATG player on the horizon yet

[wim2015]

Looks like all ATG players had some quite stunning performance in one or two slams in the early days of their career (no later than 20 years old) , winning a slam title or beating one then-ATG player convincingly. Though it is not surprising that they could not maintain their high level when they were still young guns, their bright record in one or two slams should be enough to forecast their bright future. Federer beat defending champion Sampras in WC before turning 20. Nadal defeated then world No.1 Federer and won RG at 19. Djokovic also stunned then world No.1 Federer and won AO at 20. We can extend this list to include Sampras, Agassi, Lendl, McEnroe, Borg, Edberg, Becker and so on. Maybe the only exception is Murray (he should an undisputed ATG player in a different era), who did not start to build his game in slams until 21.

If applying the aforementioned indicator to the next generation, I have to say no next ATG player is visible on the horizon. Let's check them one by one:
Khachanov/Medvedev: will be 23 in RG19 but no slam QF yet
Chung: will be 23 in RG19. Beat Djokovic in AO at 21, but not impressive frankly since Djokovic was injured then
Zverev: will be 22 in RG19 but struggled in slams
Coric: 22 years old, but no impressive slam runs
Tiafoe: 21 years old, no impressive slam runs
Tsitsipas: 20 years old, has the deepest run in slams among the young guns but get crushed by Nadal
Shapovalov: no impressive run in slams, but still too young to make prediction here

Some other players:
Thiem: not belongs to next generation any more but still a clay specialist
Kyrgios: ironically fits my indicator since he impressively beat then world No.1 Nadal in WC at 19, but he clearly lacks the motivation to work hard on tennis

With the young stars dimming not brightening, it is highly unlikely that Djokovic and Nadal will fade away soon.

 

[Deleted member 756514]

You missed out on Chung. I have no high hopes from him though.

 

[IowaGuy]

If applying the aforementioned indicator to the next generation, I have to say no next ATG player is visible on the horizon.

Should be anytime now, according to @Meles and the Diamond Age theory.

Right now looks like Djok would make easy work of any of the NextGen in best-of-5 GS...

 

[RaulRamirez]

Osaka.

But back to the ATP: Pretty soon, somebody outside of The Big 3 (or 2) has to win all of these majors, so will they be disproportionately won by 3 or 4 players, or will there be more depth and parity on the tour? Stay tuned.

 

[IowaGuy]

But back to the ATP: Pretty soon, somebody outside of The Big 3 (or 2) has to win all of these majors, so will they be disproportionately won by 3 or 4 players, or will there be more depth and parity on the tour? Stay tuned.

More depth and parity for some reason is often called "weak era" on this forum

 

[tennisfan17]

Tiafoe seems to me at least (please don't murder me for this ) to have potential to win a slam in the future. Sure his strokes are.....unique but he makes them work.

 

[Shaolin]

I'd love to see Tiafoe win a slam. Even with that....forehand....

 

[uscwang]

Looks like all ATG players had some quite stunning performance in one or two slams in the early days of their career (no later than 20 years old) , winning a slam title or beating one then-ATG player convincingly. Though it is not surprising that they could not maintain their high level when they were still young guns, their bright record in one or two slams should be enough to forecast their bright future. Federer beat defending champion Sampras in WC before turning 20. Nadal defeated then world No.1 Federer and won RG at 19. Djokovic also stunned then world No.1 Federer and won AO at 20. We can extend this list to include Sampras, Agassi, Lendl, McEnroe, Borg, Edberg, Becker and so on. Maybe the only exception is Murray (he should an undisputed ATG player in a different era), who did not start to build his game in slams until 21.

If applying the aforementioned indicator to the next generation, I have to say no next ATG player is visible on the horizon. Let's check them one by one:
Khachanov/Medvedev: will be 23 in RG19 but no slam QF yet
Chung: will be 23 in RG19. Beat Djokovic in AO at 21, but not impressive frankly since Djokovic was injured then
Zverev: will be 22 in RG19 but struggled in slams
Coric: 22 years old, but no impressive slam runs
Tiafoe: 21 years old, no impressive slam runs
Tsitsipas: 20 years old, has the deepest run in slams among the young guns but get crushed by Nadal
Shapovalov: no impressive run in slams, but still too young to make prediction here

Some other players:
Thiem: not belongs to next generation any more but still a clay specialist
Kyrgios: ironically fits my indicator since he impressively beat then world No.1 Nadal in WC at 19, but he clearly lacks the motivation to work hard on tennis

With the young stars dimming not brightening, it is highly unlikely that Djokovic and Nadal will fade away soon.

OP, it would be nice if you start a ranking thread to keep track of this young generation's progress in GS, WTF, Masters. GS performance should be the foremost criteria see exhibit A. Zverev.