Oh, we can look at it either way. One way to think of this is to rank the Big 3 in terms of wins, from best to worst, at age 30, 31, 32, and so on.
No. That's a good point. We can revisit if that happens. Not my central scenario though.
More like how TO come back
Yes, always a pleasure
You think?
The guy is right, what are you talking about. As of now, Djokovic is aging clearly better than Federer.
Quite likely.
So far no young ATG players in sight yet. Fed/Nadal/Djokovic all had convincing win against an ATG player in slams when they were 20, but young guns like Chung/Zverev/Khachanov have failed to score similar achievement. Maybe even younger Tsitsipas/Shapovalov can impress everyone in slams next year, but if that happened, they would need another two or three years to formally break out.
Then you mean he has won better at this age !
True. But, any future ATP top player (who I assume is breaking out right now) needs just one tourny to break out.
No. It requires both high peak and consistency to be an ATG player. As a young gun, consistency is always a problem, but any young ATG player candidate can have a convincingly win against an ATG player in slams to show his high peak. You can clearly see the high peak of Fed in WC01 and Djokovic in AO08, not to mention Nadal. So far in the next generation, we have not yet found another star.
I did not say ATG. I said next ATP top player.
No young gun can be ATP top player unless he can defeat Nadal/Djokovic in slams next year (I leave out Fed because he is fading away). If some 20-year-old does that, I would label him as another ATG candidate and he may need two more years before starting to dominate the field. If some 22-year-old does that, I would say he is unlikely to dominate in the next two years. Of course he can be competitive in slams, but he will still be underdog when facing healthy Nadal/Djokovic, who are the goat candidates. In either case, healthy Nadal/Djokovic should remain competitive in slams until 2020.
Anyone want to be cognizant of the difference between a 38 year old and a 32 year old? Do you have a crystal ball that will reveal whether Djokovic is even still playing at 38?
But that’s not the point of this thread. I was comparing the big 3 after 30 at the same age. So Nole in 2017 vs Nadal 2016 and Fed 2011, for example.
I think Novak will be playing. He is faster than Fed was at 32 and Nadal was at 32.
And look at all the flak I got for asking the question! And I had to go through the dark period of mid 2016 to mid 2018, when this thread seemed to make no sense. But things can change fast
If he still hasn't reached 20 or 21 by then, he'll definitely still be hanging around at 38.
That's what I meant about crystal ball. Historically in the Open era, about 2.3% of male players take the court at age 38 and most lost first rounf. I don't buy for a minute that either Nole or Rafa will be playing on the ATP tour at age 38. Stats are overwhelmingly on my side, and I ain't no stats person. I revile stats and data, but I'll use it in this case.
And yet stats have proven to be almost irrelevant because the game has changed so much.
