Nole looks at ease v Nadal

[chrischris]

Wait a minute. Why Nadal had two three setters at first place? Against Isner and Ferrer of all people?

Both are good on fast clay courts .

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

True, but Djokovic showed two counter strategies for that also. The first involves extreme rotation of the wrist to create an acute cross court angle that doesn't allow Nadal to hit an agressive forehand, but rather a more defensive one. It also moves Nadal out of his slicing pattern. The second was to recognize when Nadal was going to play the defensive slice and approach the net to cut it off, before it dipped.

Astute observations from yourself, and astute tactical plays from the Djoker.

I dont think Nadal needs to work on his backhand at this stage. It's consistent enough as it is. It's the forehand that needs work. The reason Djokovic can hit DTL so easily is because Nadal's short CC forehands make it very easy for Novak to redirect the ball.

Despite all the talk about Novak's strong backhand one of the reasons Nadal still has an edge at FO is because his CC forehand when hit with depth still gives Novak trouble.

You may have a point there, but my feeling is that the tennis Djokovic is starting to bring can actually deal with Nadal's one super stroke well enough that there's simply no choice but to have the ability to create meaningful pressure off both wings.

You could be right though.

***

Guys, here is Djokovic's interview post semi-final...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIIuw94gIEs

"...I know that I'm playing maybe the best tennis of my life..."

 

[RF-18]

It was comprehensive. The battle was an illusion and Djokovic had something in hand; he had Nadal on a string in many of the rallies. He's just so good at redirecting that fuzzy little yellow thing and playing on his terms.

Lots of work to be done for Nadal. Can he get that work done? I think he can, but it won't be easy.

Djokovic wasn't just slightly better, he was a lot better. The match really was on his racket.

Watch out, N_N.

 

[OddJack]

What impressed me was how Djokovic was hindering Nadal to get the Forehand DTL into play. Backhand DTL REALLY hurts Nadal, and it showed. Ferrer also used that same tactic when he beat him here last year, and yesterday also. It prevents a pattern of play that allows Nadal to hit the forehand DTL. And that gave Novak a trump card.

Yes, it's that easy.

1-Nadal goes to your BH and waits for the short ball to go DTL with FH. Against Djok the returns are flat and deep to Nadal FH which is not good enough for Nadal to pull the trigger or Novak goes with BH DTL to Nadal BH.

2- Nadal's lefy out wide serve does not work against Djok, he can get to it and return with interest.

3- If you watched the match, around the middle Nadal tried SLice BH, did not work.

4- Nadal tried body serve, like he did against Ferrer. Did not work.

Ferrer did try to go DTL to Nadal BH yesterday, but the difference between the pace and placement is huge from what Novak can do.

 

[Rozroz]

Yes, it's that easy.

1-Nadal goes to your BH and waits for the short ball to go DTL with FH. Against Djok the returns are flat and deep to Nadal FH which is not good enough for Nadal to pull the trigger or Novak goes with BH DTL to Nadal BH.

2- Nadal's lefy out wide serve does not work against Djok, he can get to it and return with interest.

3- If you watched the match, around the middle Nadal tried SLice BH, did not work.

4- Nadal tried body serve, like he did against Ferrer. Did not work.

Ferrer did try to go DTL to Nadal BH yesterday, but the difference between the pace and placement is huge from what Novak can do.

good analysis!
i hope this will also work in RG.
on the other hand, i'm wondering what Nadal can change to hurt Novak now..

 

[veroniquem]

So many interesting analyses in this thread. I hope you keep it going throughout clay season. Genuine food for thought, a welcome respite from the usual trolling.

 

[tennis4me]

Djokovic flattens his shots so much that it almost looks like watching the match on hard court. This puts so much pressure on Nadal. Nadal's spin didn't affect Djokovic. Djokovic looks so strong now. No obvious weakness.

 

[JanowiczJ]

Yes, it's that easy.

1-Nadal goes to your BH and waits for the short ball to go DTL with FH. Against Djok the returns are flat and deep to Nadal FH which is not good enough for Nadal to pull the trigger or Novak goes with BH DTL to Nadal BH.

2- Nadal's lefy out wide serve does not work against Djok, he can get to it and return with interest.

3- If you watched the match, around the middle Nadal tried SLice BH, did not work.

4- Nadal tried body serve, like he did against Ferrer. Did not work.

Ferrer did try to go DTL to Nadal BH yesterday, but the difference between the pace and placement is huge from what Novak can do.

Yeh, I posted about it during the match. Some people were confused by it and some said that Nadal's serve had 'no placement' when in reality he was going for the body. Not sure if they watched the match against Ferrer but it worked very well for him there. Against Nole he did it around 5 times from the add court, twice Novak shifted his body to his left and hit a clear inside-out FH winner. The other 3 times Novak didn't hit a winner but neutralized Nadal's serve and dictated the point.

 

[OddJack]

good analysis!
i hope this will also work in RG.
on the other hand, i'm wondering what Nadal can change to hurt Novak now..

Change, I think we have seen the change already.

The Racket change was hasty and speaks of his insecurity. ( he received coaching violations this weak against lesser players)

What can he change, a racket with only 6 holes?

Still, I admit I was surprised by RG 2014 final results. But I think this year is different. Nadal racket change to me means he feels weaker physically.

 

[OddJack]

So many interesting analyses in this thread. I hope you keep it going throughout clay season. Genuine food for thought, a welcome respite from the usual trolling.

It's not trolling Vero, all dominations come to an end and it's now Rafa's turn.

Bring your expectations down to avoid huge disappointments, like I did for Fed.

 

[eldanger25]

SO basically, he's forcing Rafa to play an inordinate amount of backhands. If Djokovic can maintain such form then there's only really one solution, which is getting that backhand into some real best shape. Rafa needs his '08-'09 level backhand hitting and confidence. Nadal can be in as good a form as he wants; Djokovic playing like that is still going to force him to play rather a lot of backhands—he'll exploit the weakness for as long as it remains a weakness. Meanwhile, Djokovic doesn't have any real weakness currently that can be consistently exploited, although Nadal's slice can make him feel uncomfortable.

Djokovic played a brand of tennis that I'd describe as total baseline tennis. Total, because he didn't really play to too many set patterns or get bogged down, but just always played the court and the space without limitations, in a surgical and clinical manner. Not only is that ridiculously difficult to perform and maintain but it's probably the most efficient way to play from the baseline theoretically. He's in control. It's like he played the court, rather than the man. He was about 50/50 on backhands DTL or CC?

As eldanger25 would put it: "baseline machismo".

Thanks for the nod - and I agree with the description. Today was interesting - shades of the old rivalry across points and games rather than sets. A sign of Nadal's slow descent as the years and eras he's traversed catch up, or just an opportunity for him to gather information about what he needs to improve after his first match against a fellow slam winner since RG 2014? And for Novak, an opportunity to remind Nadal of all you mentioned above.

Would like to see these two meet again in Rome.

 

[spinovic]

It always astounds me as to how much Djokovic has matured. He is now perhaps the greatest redirecter of pace the game has ever seen. He is hardly and has never been a defensive player some posters have made him out to be but is rather the epitome of controlled aggression. You can imagine how frustrated Nadal, or any opponent for that matter, is when Djokovic kept throwing back 80% pace shots with good angle, spin and depth with consistency from all parts of the court, both on offense and defense.

Federer is able to still beat Djokovic despite his age because he himself is a good redirecter of pace and also because he got used to all the pacier exchanges back in his early days.

Djokovic, IMO, has arguably the best DTL shots in tennis history. He gets plenty of praise for his BH DTL, but his FH DTL is just as good to me. He used both very well today. He doesn't overpower, but uses his court position and ability to redirect to pressure opponents and win points.

That said, Nadal's forehand will improve. He will hit it bigger and be more aggressive by the time Paris rolls around and that changes the dynamic of this matchup. Djokovic has to try to redirect and dictate from deeper in the court which is much more difficult. He spent a lot of time on or inside the baseline today and Nadal seemed content to keep defending. And, what we learned today was that he can still defend at a high level. Despite lots of short balls, he still was forcing Djokovic to hit multiple additional great shots to win points. What happens if/when the Nadal forehand resurfaces?

 

[spinovic]

One more year and there will be at least 5 guys can beat Nadal on clay anyday.

This year, Nadal still can hope for another French Open if he is lucky enough. It means he needs someone take Djokovic out for him.

I disagree. Djokovic will not beat Nadal at Roland Garros. If he advances deep enough to meet Novak there, it will mean that he is in good form, and if that's true, he is still better than Djokovic on clay in a 5-set match.

It is Djokovic who needs someone to knock Nadal out in the first week.

 

[veroniquem]

Spinovic has a point. Nadal's forehand when he's dialed in can be much more formidable and it usually is at RG.

 

[veroniquem]

It's not trolling Vero, all dominations come to an end and it's now Rafa's turn.

Bring your expectations down to avoid huge disappointments, like I did for Fed.

No I meant I'm really enjoying the technical and strategic comments in this thread vs the usual "x is finnish" or "x will destroy y next time", you know, macho talk?
What people write in here is insightful, stimulating and not just confrontational. It is rare enough I thought I would mention it

 

[cuteasiangirl]

I disagree. Djokovic will not beat Nadal at Roland Garros. If he advances deep enough to meet Novak there, it will mean that he is in good form, and if that's true, he is still better than Djokovic on clay in a 5-set match.

It is Djokovic who needs someone to knock Nadal out in the first week.

Spinovic, I'm just curious why you appear to be so confident in saying that Djokovic cannot beat Nadal at RG? I know the best of 5 format employed in the Slams lends a completely different dynamic, but Given the relative ease and straightforward scoreline, would it really be that much of a stretch to think
Djokovic could not win one more set, especially since he is utilizing tactics that cause Rafa to expend so much energy while not having to do the same himself?

 

[Deleted member 688153]

He's only doing this because Nadal is no longer good enough to take it out of his hands.

Federer's style allows him to take the match out of Novak's hands a little more easily, but even he can only do it on his best surfaces.

Murray was basically only good enough to do it at his absolute peak.

Fedal have lost the edge they had.

 

[Brett UK]

Spinovic has a point. Nadal's forehand when he's dialed in can be much more formidable and it usually is at RG.

it is more formidable at RG. In my view Nadal won RG up until 2011 because he was flat out the best player on clay. Since then, I believe he has been winning RG on the back of something related but different....he just gets too much spin at RG for any other player to be able to play their shots. I could tell from the 1st game in RG final it was just too demanding for Nole to pay these super high backhands.

In my view now. Djokovic is better than Nadal on clay, and all other surfaces by quite a long way. However on RG, Nadal will win once again.

 

[Brett UK]

I think with the improvement of Nadal's DTL Novak really had to change his gameplan. Back then he used to put constant pressure on the forehand. Now it's quite the reverse. It's pressure to the backhand until there's big enough a gap on the forehand. That said, Nadal's backhand was surprisingly reliable today. It was his forehand that let him down. It just never found the mark.

Nadal's backhand was low error count but he didn't attack with it in the rallies. It was the weakest I can recall Nadal's backhand.

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Nadal's backhand was low error count but he didn't attack with it in the rallies. It was the weakest I can recall Nadal's backhand.

Agreed entirely. Nadal needs to actually produce some damage with the backhand. Djokovic will find it often, regardless of the quality of Nadal's forehand.

I guess the argument is that if Nadal hits his FH viciously enough then he can just predict the slightly tamer DTL backhands of Nole anyway and run around it to hit more forehands.

.. Feeling though like Djokovic's game is reaching heights that can deal with the "fearhand", to the extent that Nadal's backhand will undergo inevitable heavy scrutiny.

 

[Deleted member 688153]

Agreed entirely. Nadal needs to actually produce some damage with the backhand. Djokovic will find it often, regardless of the quality of Nadal's forehand.

I guess the argument is that if Nadal hits his FH viciously enough then he can just predict the slightly tamer DTL backhands of Nole anyway and run around it to hit more forehands.

.. Feeling though like Djokovic's game is reaching heights that can deal with the "fearhand", to the extent that Nadal's backhand will undergo inevitable heavy scrutiny.

The "fearhand" is reaching lows that Djokovic's game can deal with, more like.

Remember MC 2012, when Nadal played well?

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

The "fearhand" is reaching lows that Djokovic's game can deal with, more like.

Remember MC 2012, when Nadal played well?

Watched an awful lot of Nadal highlights at MC and RG since the match earlier today.

This Djokovic would have a serious shot at various iterations of Nadal over the years. He wasn't always hugely impressive, just mostly.

If Djokovic maintains his level, then he'll have his chances even if Nadal gets it together. I'd favour a totally peaking (so equal to best ever previous performances) Nadal over Djokovic but it would have to be that good.

 

[Brett UK]

Agreed entirely. Nadal needs to actually produce some damage with the backhand. Djokovic will find it often, regardless of the quality of Nadal's forehand.

I guess the argument is that if Nadal hits his FH viciously enough then he can just predict the slightly tamer DTL backhands of Nole anyway and run around it to hit more forehands.

.. Feeling though like Djokovic's game is reaching heights that can deal with the "fearhand", to the extent that Nadal's backhand will undergo inevitable heavy scrutiny.

sure but back to my OP. Djokovic is at ease v Nadal. He returns his serves effortlessly now and gets on top of the rallies. I find that the remarkable points are shared between them but the unremarkable points are all Djokovic because he gets on top of most of the points.

 

[Brett UK]

Watched an awful lot of Nadal highlights at MC and RG since the match earlier today.

This Djokovic would have a serious shot at various iterations of Nadal over the years. He wasn't always hugely impressive, just mostly.

If Djokovic maintains his level, then he'll have his chances even if Nadal gets it together. I'd favour a totally peaking (so equal to best ever previous performances) Nadal over Djokovic but it would have to be that good.

depends on the surface right? Nadal at RG clear favorite. Djokovic on HC and grass very clear favorite, and I would favour Djokovic on all clay except RG

 

[Deleted member 688153]

Watched an awful lot of Nadal highlights at MC and RG since the match earlier today.

This Djokovic would have a serious shot at various iterations of Nadal over the years. He wasn't always hugely impressive, just mostly.

If Djokovic maintains his level, then he'll have his chances even if Nadal gets it together. I'd favour a totally peaking (so equal to best ever previous performances) Nadal over Djokovic but it would have to be that good.

Well yeah, but 2006 RG Federer would have got Rafa at RG 2011 I'm sure. :twisted:

Surely Djokovic can't keep this up.
He going to bomb out at one of the slams I feel, even if he wins 1-2 of the others.
I still call weak field though.

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

depends on the surface right? Nadal at RG clear favorite. Djokovic on HC and grass very clear favorite, and I would favour Djokovic on all clay except RG

I'm talking about RG. If Djokovic maintains this level of confidence and control of the ball, he's going to have his shot at Nadal at RG and can win the title. Nadal would need to find some serious form... I don't think 2011 or 2014 RG form would cut it against Novak as he was developing earlier today, with his ridiculous control of the rallies off both wings.

As a general rule:

Nadal is favoured on clay.

Djokovic is favoured everywhere else, but it's fairly neutral on the faster HC between the two, as the H2H clearly shows.

But right now, Djokovic is favoured even on clay.

The only question is RG.

Well yeah, but 2006 RG Federer would have got Rafa at RG 2011 I'm sure. :twisted:

Surely Djokovic can't keep this up.
He going to bomb out at one of the slams I feel, even if he wins 1-2 of the others.
I still call weak field though.

Well. I guess that's the other big question. If he does, then he can definitely win RG and Nadal will need to produce some real peak form to get the job done. Some rare form.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Well yeah, but 2006 RG Federer would have got Rafa at RG 2011 I'm sure. :twisted:

Surely Djokovic can't keep this up.
He going to bomb out at one of the slams I feel, even if he wins 1-2 of the others.
I still call weak field though.

Last year was pretty weak also. Cilic winning a slam? Seriously? :lol:

If by the time Djokovic retires, he has 13 or 14 slams and his fanboys try to argue that he is better than Federer, all that will need to be said is "Cilic".

 

[Deleted member 307496]

I'm talking about RG. If Djokovic maintains this level of confidence and control of the ball, he's going to have his shot at Nadal at RG and can win the title. Nadal would need to find some serious form... I don't think 2011 or 2014 RG form would cut it against Novak as he was developing earlier today, with his ridiculous control of the rallies off both wings.

As a general rule:

Nadal is favoured on clay.

Djokovic is favoured everywhere else, but it's fairly neutral on the faster HC between the two, as the H2H clearly shows.

But right now, Djokovic is favoured even on clay.

The only question is RG.



Well. I guess that's the other big question. If he does, then he can definitely win RG and Nadal will need to produce some real peak form to get the job done. Some rare form.

Yep, that happened in 2013 also didn't it?

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Last year was pretty weak also. Cilic winning a slam? Seriously? :lol:

If by the time Djokovic retires, he has 13 or 14 slams and his fanboys try to argue that he is better than Federer, all that will need to be said is "Cilic".

You're predicting that Cilic will win 2 Slams though, at a Safin like tempo (at least you did).

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Yep, that happened in 2013 also didn't it?

Yes and the semi-final was one for the ages. But also no, because I'm more impressed with Djokovic in 2015.

 

[JumpSmash]

Federer is able to still beat Djokovic despite his age because he himself is a good redirecter of pace and also because he got used to all the pacier exchanges back in his early days.

Fed is competitive versus Djoker because of his junk balling and variety. Nole still does not like slices to his BH and it prevents him for being aggresssive with the shot. He has to add a lot of spin, brush up the back of the ball to get it over the net killing a lot of the power.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

You're predicting that Cilic will win 2 Slams though, at a Safin like tempo (at least you did).

That was at the time.


Now, seeing as he has just dropped off a cliff (Safin made a dash for #1 after his major win) I doubt this is true. Cilic was impressive at the US Open, but no doubt he is still a weaker slam winner.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Yes and the semi-final was one for the ages. But also no, because I'm more impressed with Djokovic in 2015.

I'm impressed with Djokovic, but I also know Nadal is a fighter and he will try his best against Novak at Roland Garros.

If they also meet and Djokovic prevails, I could see him being gassed for the final and end up losing it.

 

[spinovic]

Spinovic, I'm just curious why you appear to be so confident in saying that Djokovic cannot beat Nadal at RG? I know the best of 5 format employed in the Slams lends a completely different dynamic, but Given the relative ease and straightforward scoreline, would it really be that much of a stretch to think
Djokovic could not win one more set, especially since he is utilizing tactics that cause Rafa to expend so much energy while not having to do the same himself?

My logic is this. You may disagree, but I think you will at least have to admit it's a reasonable assumption I'm making.

First, I assume Nadal will be in the top 4 at RG. That being the case, he and Djokovic will not meet before the SF. If they meet in the SF (or F), depending on the draw, I believe that will mean Nadal is in or close to top form. He will be making fewer UEs, getting better depth on his shots and be hitting his forehand bigger and better. From what I saw today, his defense is still as good as anyone's on clay.

Djokovic is capable of beating Nadal at RG (I believe), and has been for at least 4 years. I just don't think he will.

I think Nadal will either go out before the QF or win it again.

 

[Deleted member 512391]

My logic is this. You may disagree, but I think you will at least have to admit it's a reasonable assumption I'm making.

First, I assume Nadal will be in the top 4 at RG. That being the case, he and Djokovic will not meet before the SF. If they meet in the SF (or F), depending on the draw, I believe that will mean Nadal is in or close to top form. He will be making fewer UEs, getting better depth on his shots and be hitting his forehand bigger and better. From what I saw today, his defense is still as good as anyone's on clay.

Djokovic is capable of beating Nadal at RG (I believe), and has been for at least 4 years. I just don't think he will.

I think Nadal will either go out before the QF or win it again.

I agree with your points.

Regarding the bold part, who do you think have a realistic chance to upset him before the QF?
With the level of play he demonstrated at MC, he will comfortably beat anyone in early rounds (he beat Ferrer after all). I don't think that he can lose to anybody that early, unless he is badly injured.
He's simply too good (even at 60-70%).

 

[NGM]

Rome and Madrid will give a clearer look about Nadal's body.

Does anyone notice that in this year Nadal often start well, just to lose pace in latter sets? Is that not strange for someone like Nadal?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Rome and Madrid will give a clearer look about Nadal's body.

Does anyone notice that in this year Nadal often start well, just to lose pace in latter sets? Is that not strange for someone like Nadal?

The less hair Rafa has, the more he's declining. The guy has a ton of miles on him considering his style. Think about the dozens and dozens of highlight videos we can watch of him doing ridiculous things on court. It's the same pair of knees in all those vids :lol:

 

[NGM]

The less hair Rafa has, the more he's declining.

It may sound like a joke, but ironically I agree with it.

Balding is a sign of ageing.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Fed is competitive versus Djoker because of his junk balling and variety. Nole still does not like slices to his BH and it prevents him for being aggresssive with the shot. He has to add a lot of spin, brush up the back of the ball to get it over the net killing a lot of the power.

Omg your sig :lol: Classic.

 

[spinovic]

I agree with your points.

Regarding the bold part, who do you think have a realistic chance to upset him before the QF?
With the level of play he demonstrated at MC, he will comfortably beat anyone in early rounds (he beat Ferrer after all). I don't think that he can lose to anybody that early, unless he is badly injured.
He's simply too good (even at 60-70%).

Things can happen in majors. Nadal could be off. And, even if he's playing at Monte Carlo level, he had a tough time beating both Isner and Ferrer. Isner, particularly, had chances and could have easily beat him. He served for the first set TB after Rafa saved a set point on his own serve.

To answer your question, I think a guy like Isner could knock him off. A guy with big power who plays aggressive and goes for his shots. Like Soderling as well, only it wouldn't take as high a level as it did in 2009, IMO. Remember, Isner took Nadal the distance at RG once I believe. Tsonga is another possible one.

 

[jg153040]

The less hair Rafa has, the more he's declining. The guy has a ton of miles on him considering his style. Think about the dozens and dozens of highlight videos we can watch of him doing ridiculous things on court. It's the same pair of knees in all those vids :lol:

Testosterone increases sex drive at the cost of a thinning head. So, Rafa is entering his prime.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Testosterone increases sex drive at the cost of a thinning head. So, Rafa is entering his prime.

:lol:

You always make me laugh a lot.

 

[Smasher08]

Tired with a 1.5 hour match ? That doesnt sound good.

Rome and Madrid will give a clearer look about Nadal's body.

Does anyone notice that in this year Nadal often start well, just to lose pace in latter sets? Is that not strange for someone like Nadal?

 

[OddJack]

Rome and Madrid will give a clearer look about Nadal's body.

Does anyone notice that in this year Nadal often start well, just to lose pace in latter sets? Is that not strange for someone like Nadal?

I have talked about that couple of times.

Yes. He himself has said he gets tired earlier. Which is why I dont buy this confidence thing at all. I think the problem is physical, his body is failing him. He started the tour early and achieved more than the other 2 way sooner at the same age. In tennis age, he is about 32. Add to that his game style and injuries. He is playing on sheer will power and denial. He wins matches on bluff since last year. Anyone with mental strength could have beat him.

 

[JanowiczJ]

Good reading here:

Remove the Run-Around Forehand

This is the most potent weapon Nadal possesses, and the engine room of his clay-court greatness. But by initially running Nadal wide to his forehand in the ad court, he has now got too far to run to turn the ensuing deuce court ball into a forehand. In the opening set, Nadal only hit 22 (30 per cent) run-around forehands in the deuce court to 51 backhands.

Things were even worse in the second set, where he only managed 20 run-around forehands (25 per cent) to 61 backhands. He ended with two winners and six errors with the run-around forehand strategy, so it’s not hard to figure what needs to drastically improve next time they play.

On match point, Djokovic owned the baseline with one forehand and four bruising backhands, the last a cross-court missile to seal the match. Nadal failed to find an offensive strategy to hurt Djokovic, or play good enough defence to force the Serb to over-hit.

read full article here: http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Te...Carlo-Saturday-Djokovic-Nadal-Brain-Game.aspx