Novak Djokovic didn't have many chances to Win RG

nolefam_2024

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
2023 Novak is injured, or now post injury but unprepared. Only his team knows. But this is probably one of the best chances he had in 13 years.
Here are his odds and his results.

2011 : Nadal +100, Djokovic +170, Federer +1800
Djokovic lost to Federer when Federer was not favorite at all. +1800 is worse than what Medvedev has this year, similar to RUUD this year. But Novak lost.

2012 : Nadal +100, Djokovic +180, Federer +1400
Djokovic was getting soundly beaten by Nadal before rain delay. Djokovic didn't deserve to win this match just due to rain.

2013 : Nadal -167, Djokovic +150, Federer +1600
Djokovic's best chance to win was here. He had Nadal on the ropes but lost in the end. This is only one till now he regrets losing.

2014 : Djokovic +120, Nadal +130, Wawrinka +800
Djokovic was odds on favorite until QF, but he was not before the final. Rafa gave him no chance after set 1.

2015 : Djokovic -120, Nadal +500, Murray +1000, Federer +1000, Nishikori +1200, Wawrinka +1500
Djokovic didn't lose it in the end. He would have no chance vs Wawrinka after set 1.

2017 : Nadal -125, Djokovic +300, Murray +900, Thiem +900, Wawrinka +1000
Djokovic had no chance, got bageled in third set vs Thiem.

2018 : Nadal -227, Thiem +600, Djokovic +700
Djokovic had some chance to reach the final but he had no chance of winning

2019 : Nadal +105, Djokovic +225, Thiem +550
Djokovic had some chance to reach the final but had no chance of winning. The rain helped him but still couldn't beat Thiem

2020 : Nadal -138, Djokovic +120
Djokovic had no chance in the final

2022 : Djokovic +200, Alcaraz +225, Nadal +400
Lost 4 setpoints to take the match into fifth. But this time it was in QF, so can't give imaginary wins.

2023 : Alcaraz +150, Djokovic +230

Djokovic was odds on favorite 4 times in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2022. He only won one in 2016.
Djokovic was second favorite in 7 more times. Making him top 3 favorite for 12 of last 13 years.


Overall Djokovic was way ahead from the rest for 12 years but behind Rafa and now behind Alcaraz.
 
Well he won 2 and beat Nadal twice. Only player to ever do so in this era. So I would say hes done ok LOL? She he have won more? I think hes overachieved personally. He really isn't that great on clay. Its far and away his weakest surface. Of course he is very good on clay for normal standards, but you would take him 7 days a week and twice on sunday on grass and hard than you would on clay
 
Sampras-Bruguera 1993 said:
Well he won 2 and beat Nadal twice. Only player to ever do so in this era. So I would say hes done ok LOL? She he have won more? I think hes overachieved personally. He really isn't that great on clay. Its far and away his weakest surface
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He is above average on clay. Much better record that Bruguera.
 
Hitman said:
In all honesty, after he won RG 2021 beating Nadal along the way, I didn't really care if he never won a never match at RG again. Like even now, if I choose only one slam for him to win, it will be Wimbledon. Anything he does there post 2021 is just cherry on the cake.
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I think Nole is 3/4 RG caliber player. Would love to at least see him at 3.
 
Hitman said:
In all honesty, after he won RG 2021 beating Nadal along the way, I didn't really care if he never won a never match at RG again. Like even now, if I choose only one slam for him to win, it will be Wimbledon. Anything he does there post 2021 is just cherry on the cake.
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Yea its just gravy at RG at this point. He has far succeeded expectations at RG. To me its like Nadal after 2022 AO. All gravy unless its a Year End title or something
 
nachiket nolefam said:
I think Nole is 3/4 RG caliber player. Would love to at least see him at 3.
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I don't disagree with anything you said, and I would love to see him win a third here, I just personally am content with his career there even if he doesn't. It's Wimbledon and that record I would much rather have as a fan.
 
Sampras-Bruguera 1993 said:
Its hard to feast on clay at 36. If hes gonna feast its gonna be on on grass where he finishes his GOAT run there with 9 Wimbledons
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The only credible threat is Alcaraz and he has a tough draw.

On the contrary, Djokovic has an easy path and LOL Rublev , who is terrified about Djokovic .

He has to mess it up real bad to not win here
 
Sampras-Bruguera 1993 said:
Yea its just gravy at RG at this point. He has far succeeded expectations at RG. To me its like Nadal after 2022 AO. All gravy unless its a Year End title or something
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That is exactly it for me, RG is like gravy at this point for me. Of course as a fan watching him win a third, I would take it any day, but if he doesn't win it, I would very quickly move on from it. He's won two in the era of Nadal, no other player has done that, that's enough for me.
 
Hitman said:
I don't disagree with anything you said, and I would love to see him win a third here, I just personally am content with his career there even if he doesn't. It's Wimbledon and that record I would much rather have as a fan.
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He needs to separate out from Nadal. That 2nd AO has put Nadal in similar boat as Nole.
 
nachiket nolefam said:
He is above average on clay. Much better record that Bruguera.
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Are you sure about that? Look at Bruguera's French Open runs.

1993 French Open: Bruguera played Leconte in the first round, Bruguera won the first set 7-6, Leconte won the first game of the second set and then 12 games in a row for Bruguera to win 7-6, 6-1, 6-0. Second round saw Bruguera beat Champion 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 (30 games in a row). Third round saw Bruguera beat Larsson 6-1, 6-3, 6-1 (31 games in a row streak snapped in the second game of the match). In the fourth round, Bruguera beat Meligeni 6-3, 6-1, 7-5. In the quarter final, Bruguera beat world number 1 Sampras 6-3, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. In the semi final, Bruguera met Medvedev (whom he was 0-3 against at the time) and yet beat Medvedev 6-0, 6-4, 6-2. In the final, Bruguera met Courier, and Courier had won 20 matches in a row at the French Open including the previous two French Open titles. Bruguera beat Courier 6-4, 2-6, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, coming from 0-2 down in the fifth set.

1994 French Open: Bruguera beat Damm 6-1, 6-1, 7-6 in the first round, beat Christian Ruud (Casper's dad) 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 in the second round, beat veteran Haitian Ronald Agenor in the third round 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, smashed Rafter (who had beaten Muster) 6-4, 6-3, 6-1 in the fourth round. In the quarter finals, Bruguera came up against rival Medvedev who had beaten him 7-5, 6-1, 6-3 in the 1994 Monte Carlo final. Bruguera beat Medvedev 6-3, 6-2, 7-5 in the 1994 French Open quarter final. Then a repeat of the previous year's final and Courier had just foiled Sampras' attempts to win 4 majors in a row by beating him in the quarter final in 4 sets. Bruguera beat Courier in the semi final 6-3, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3. Then the final against Alberto Berasategui, who himself had had an amazing run to the final without dropping a set. Bruguera beat Berasategui 6-3, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1. Berasategui blew his chance when leading 5-2 in the second set, only to lose the next 5 games.

You really think these runs are worse than Djokovic's 2016 and 2021 runs?
 
Mustard said:
Are you sure about that? Look at Bruguera's French Open runs.

1993 French Open: Bruguera played Leconte in the first round, Bruguera won the first set 7-6, Leconte won the first game of the second set and then 12 games in a row for Bruguera to win 7-6, 6-1, 6-0. Second round saw Bruguera beat Champion 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 (30 games in a row). Third round saw Bruguera beat Larsson 6-1, 6-3, 6-1 (31 games in a row streak snapped in the second game of the match). In the fourth round, Bruguera beat Meligeni 6-3, 6-1, 7-5. In the quarter final, Bruguera beat world number 1 Sampras 6-3, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. In the semi final, Bruguera met Medvedev (whom he was 0-3 against at the time) and yet beat Medvedev 6-0, 6-4, 6-2. In the final, Bruguera met Courier, and Courier had won 20 matches in a row at the French Open including the previous two French Open titles. Bruguera beat Courier 6-4, 2-6, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, coming from 0-2 down in the fifth set.

1994 French Open: Bruguera beat Damm 6-1, 6-1, 7-6 in the first round, beat Christian Ruud (Casper's dad) 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 in the second round, beat veteran Haitian Ronald Agenor in the third round 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, smashed Rafter (who had beaten Muster) 6-4, 6-3, 6-1 in the fourth round. In the quarter finals, Bruguera came up against rival Medvedev who had beaten him 7-5, 6-1, 6-3 in the 1994 Monte Carlo final. Bruguera beat Medvedev 6-3, 6-2, 7-5 in the 1994 French Open quarter final. Then a repeat of the previous year's final and Courier had just foiled Sampras' attempts to win 4 majors in a row by beating him in the quarter final in 4 sets. Bruguera beat Courier in the semi final 6-3, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3. Then the final against Alberto Berasategui, who himself had had an amazing run to the final without dropping a set. Bruguera beat Berasategui 6-3, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1. Berasategui blew his chance when leading 5-2 in the second set, only to lose the next 5 games.

You really think these runs are worse than Djokovic's 2016 and 2021 runs?
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He has 2 and Novak has 2. Novak has loads of other records and he might even win 3rd. Novak is definitely better than all the guys listed.
 
If Djokovic loses to Alcaraz, then it will reaffirm the weak era talks. Let us hope Djokovic can put it past Alcaraz
 
BorgTheGOAT said:
Novak beats Muster in next to every clay stat that matters. Guga has a case to be still ahead, but tough to argue for the others.
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Agreed. Only Guga has the case to be ahead because of his high peak and I think he would have won more than 3 RG if his body held up. The others? I don't see it. Either their primes were too short or they underachieved at RG (Muster).
 
BorgTheGOAT said:
More masters and more FO titles is what counts. The presence of Rafa would of course rule out any such dominance for any player who had to play at the time Djoko did. Not even prime Borg would go for 111-5 playing alongside Rafa, Muster sure as hell wouldn’t.
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Muster in that period won a French Open, 2 Italian Opens, 2 Monte Carlos, and a masters on carpet in Essen.
 
Mustard said:
Muster in that period won a French Open, 2 Italian Opens, 2 Monte Carlos, and a masters on carpet in Essen.
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And how do you think I didn’t know that? Masters on carpet is a great achievement but irrelevant for that discussion. Novak won more masters on clay and has a way better FO record. To cherry pick certain periods of dominance makes not much sense here especially given Novak had to deal with Nadal.
 
Mustard said:
Are you sure about that? Look at Bruguera's French Open runs.

1993 French Open: Bruguera played Leconte in the first round, Bruguera won the first set 7-6, Leconte won the first game of the second set and then 12 games in a row for Bruguera to win 7-6, 6-1, 6-0. Second round saw Bruguera beat Champion 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 (30 games in a row). Third round saw Bruguera beat Larsson 6-1, 6-3, 6-1 (31 games in a row streak snapped in the second game of the match). In the fourth round, Bruguera beat Meligeni 6-3, 6-1, 7-5. In the quarter final, Bruguera beat world number 1 Sampras 6-3, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. In the semi final, Bruguera met Medvedev (whom he was 0-3 against at the time) and yet beat Medvedev 6-0, 6-4, 6-2. In the final, Bruguera met Courier, and Courier had won 20 matches in a row at the French Open including the previous two French Open titles. Bruguera beat Courier 6-4, 2-6, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, coming from 0-2 down in the fifth set.

1994 French Open: Bruguera beat Damm 6-1, 6-1, 7-6 in the first round, beat Christian Ruud (Casper's dad) 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 in the second round, beat veteran Haitian Ronald Agenor in the third round 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, smashed Rafter (who had beaten Muster) 6-4, 6-3, 6-1 in the fourth round. In the quarter finals, Bruguera came up against rival Medvedev who had beaten him 7-5, 6-1, 6-3 in the 1994 Monte Carlo final. Bruguera beat Medvedev 6-3, 6-2, 7-5 in the 1994 French Open quarter final. Then a repeat of the previous year's final and Courier had just foiled Sampras' attempts to win 4 majors in a row by beating him in the quarter final in 4 sets. Bruguera beat Courier in the semi final 6-3, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3. Then the final against Alberto Berasategui, who himself had had an amazing run to the final without dropping a set. Bruguera beat Berasategui 6-3, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1. Berasategui blew his chance when leading 5-2 in the second set, only to lose the next 5 games.

You really think these runs are worse than Djokovic's 2016 and 2021 runs?
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Bruguera's draws in 93 and 94 were considerably/much tougher than Djoko's easy draw in 16 and moderate draw in 21.
 
Sampras-Bruguera 1993 said:
Well he won 2 and beat Nadal twice. Only player to ever do so in this era. So I would say hes done ok LOL? She he have won more? I think hes overachieved personally. He really isn't that great on clay. Its far and away his weakest surface. Of course he is very good on clay for normal standards, but you would take him 7 days a week and twice on sunday on grass and hard than you would on clay
Click to expand...
Thanks to the organizers, the Serbian wolf won DO 2021.
:mad:
 
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I think Djokovic thinks this is his most realistic and maybe last chance to win Rg. Next year he will be 37 and Alcaraz and others will be more strong. Also cannot ignore Rafa if it will be his last ever Rg then he will give his blood and sweat to win it and surely one will back a 38 yr Rafa over 37 yr Djokovic at Rg not even bringing the rest of the field
 
Do we need dozens of Djokovic threads everyday?
Nolefam, we get it. You need to compensate for all the imaginary sins that fate and the tennis public have committed against your man.
But let’s limit the front page of GPPD to a reasonable number of threads and stick all the more mundane stuff to your safe space.
You’re welcome :giggle:
 
Winning the title twice and beating the clay GOAT twice during the insanely dominant reign of Nadal is an extremely impressive achievement as far as I'm concerned. He pretty much maxed his opportunities (2011 and 2013 being debatable). Certainly this year is probably his last realistic chance to win a third championship with Nadal out of the way, but it's certainly no guarantee given his mediocre clay results coming into the tournament.
 
ND-13 said:
The only credible threat is Alcaraz and he has a tough draw.

On the contrary, Djokovic has an easy path and LOL Rublev , who is terrified about Djokovic .

He has to mess it up real bad to not win here
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If you say so.
I see this as just a preemptive strike by a detractor to not give him any credit if he wins.
 
RaulRamirez said:
If you say so.
I see this as just a preemptive strike by a detractor to not give him any credit if he wins.
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He could have had a draw comprising Musetti, Sinner, Alacaraz and Rune. Instead he is facing Hurcakz, Rublev, Alcaraz (who has to face Musetti and Tsitsipas first) and if the luck continues, perhaps Ruud in the final.

Make what you want of it. I am not a detractor but like to speak facts.
 
ND-13 said:
He could have had a draw comprising Musetti, Sinner, Alacaraz and Rune. Instead he is facing Hurcakz, Rublev, Alcaraz (who has to face Musetti and Tsitsipas first) and if the luck continues, perhaps Ruud in the final.

Make what you want of it. I am not a detractor but like to speak facts.
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Just the fact that (arguably, the two favorites) Novak and Carlitos ended up in the same half makes it a little tricky for both.
In looking at the draw, on paper, Alacaraz seems to have the tougher path to their semi, but arguably, Ruud has an easier path of opponents than both to his semi, and possibly Med does as well.
 
Let's just say Djokovic was never that good on clay to be favorite during all those years, despite Nadal wasn't at his peak anymore after Federer's generation. So that answer your question as to why he doesn't have much chance at FO.

Djokovic overachieved by winning 2 FO against in weak era. So technically, he was the lucky one. Many past ATG who had tough clay competition would have won a few FO had he they faced this career inflation era
 
Djokovic has the right draw to do it. His draw is a joke this year. He should have had to go through Rune, Tsitsipas and Alcaraz to win it.
 
Nadal_King said:
I think Djokovic thinks this is his most realistic and maybe last chance to win Rg. Next year he will be 37 and Alcaraz and others will be more strong. Also cannot ignore Rafa if it will be his last ever Rg then he will give his blood and sweat to win it and surely one will back a 38 yr Rafa over 37 yr Djokovic at Rg not even bringing the rest of the field
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How do you see the slam race finishing now?
 
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