Novak has a much better chance vs Nadal tomorrow than most people think

[FlamingCheeto]

How much did you win?

$2,000 today 4,000 more once Djoker wins Sunday, I'd bet even more but no doubt Djoker is going to be -something now instead of win I got him at +300 +400 and +235 against Rafa

 

[Bartelby]

You did indeed bet big on Djokovic. If he wins on Sunday he's half-way to a Grand Slam. Only perhaps he can stop himself. So what are the odds I can get on a Grand Slam today?

 

[SonicNirvana]

This is usually what happens whenever a stadium puts up a statue in your name. The Rafa statue is a marking of bad luck. He will never win at RG again, let alone any other grand slam. I wish I wasn't joking

and the number is 13

 

[Bartelby]

Margaret Court hasn't one an AO since they named a stadium after her too, and she's connected to the big Chair Umpire in the sky.

 

[vex]

Lol nailed it!

 

[Bartelby]

This was on the money, and I made me some.

I'd bet on Djokovic to win. He is certainly capable of an upset. And it would be a victory for the ages. The last FO was also not a good indicator of what he can do in the here and now.

 

[TennisFan3]

Here's why Novak has a good shot vs Nadal at the RG 2021 SF. The match will be very close at the least, and may result in an upset as well.

• Zero Pressure: Nadal won RG 2020 in straights. Everyone expects him to win. Novak had way more pressure during RG 2020 - now he can just swing for the fences without any pressure.​
• Ambition: Novak is man possessed. After having lose to Nadal in RG 2020 - he's made it his life goal to beat Nadal in Paris again. Hence the huge war-cry after winning the SF vs Matteo. He wants this way more than Nadal.​
• Novak's serving: 2021 has been a revelation. Serving far better than he did in 2020. Broken only thrice in this tournament.​
• Fitness/Match Time: Novak is FRESH into this final: RG 2020 he came from a long 5 setter. Rome 2021 - he played 2 matches and 5 hours the day before. He hasn't played Nadal fresh in a major clay match for a while.​
• Conditions: Cooler evening time conditions drifting into the night. The earliest match start is 5:30 PM- but will likely be quite a bit later. Nadal's spin and bounce will be easier to handle in such conditions.​
• Nadal's Vulnerability as he Ages: In losses to Rublev, Zverev, MP down vs Titspas and losing 1-6 set vs Novak in Rome - Nadal has shown vulnerability this clay season. No one better to take Nadal's legs away and exploit any dips in form.​

I am not saying Novak will win for sure. But the match would be very close. It will likely to be closer to their F.O 2013 SF Epic.
The winner will likely be the player who gets lucky at a few key points - similar to the AO 2012 F and Wimb 2018 SF.

Not to say I told you so. But these factors in BOLD are EXACTLY why Novak beat Nadal. Especially:

Ambition: Novak is man possessed. After having lose to Nadal in RG 2020 - he's made it his life goal to beat Nadal in Paris again. Hence the huge war-cry after winning the SF vs Matteo. He wants this way more than Nadal.

Novak's serving: 2021 has been a revelation. Serving far better than he did in 2020. Broken only thrice in this tournament.

Fitness/Match Time: Novak is FRESH into this final: RG 2020 he came from a long 5 setter. Rome 2021 - he played 2 matches and 5 hours the day before. He hasn't played Nadal fresh in a major clay match for a while.

Conditions: Cooler evening time conditions drifting into the night. The earliest match start is 5:30 PM- but will likely be quite a bit later. Nadal's spin and bounce will be easier to handle in such conditions.

Nadal's Vulnerability as he Ages: In losses to Rublev, Zverev, MP down vs Titspas and losing 1-6 set vs Novak in Rome - Nadal has shown vulnerability this clay season. No one better to take Nadal's legs away and exploit any dips in form.

 

[TennisFan3]

Here's why Novak has a good shot vs Nadal at the RG 2021 SF. The match will be very close at the least, and may result in an upset as well.

• Zero Pressure: Nadal won RG 2020 in straights. Everyone expects him to win. Novak had way more pressure during RG 2020 - now he can just swing for the fences without any pressure.​
• Ambition: Novak is man possessed. After having lose to Nadal in RG 2020 - he's made it his life goal to beat Nadal in Paris again. Hence the huge war-cry after winning the SF vs Matteo. He wants this way more than Nadal.​
• Novak's serving: 2021 has been a revelation. Serving far better than he did in 2020. Broken only thrice in this tournament.​
• Fitness/Match Time: Novak is FRESH into this final: RG 2020 he came from a long 5 setter. Rome 2021 - he played 2 matches and 5 hours the day before. He hasn't played Nadal fresh in a major clay match for a while.​
• Conditions: Cooler evening time conditions drifting into the night. The earliest match start is 5:30 PM- but will likely be quite a bit later. Nadal's spin and bounce will be easier to handle in such conditions.​
• Nadal's Vulnerability as he Ages: In losses to Rublev, Zverev, MP down vs Titspas and losing 1-6 set vs Novak in Rome - Nadal has shown vulnerability this clay season. No one better to take Nadal's legs away and exploit any dips in form.​

I am not saying Novak will win for sure. But the match would be very close. It will likely to be closer to their F.O 2013 SF Epic.
The winner will likely be the player who gets lucky at a few key points - similar to the AO 2012 F and Wimb 2018 SF.

I was pretty close to the prediction, but I thought Nadal would have put more of a fight. Novak surpassed my expectations and Nadal underwhelmed considerably.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

I'm surprised how easily Berrettini got into Djokovic's service games........and if Nadal gets to as many deuces as Berrettini did, then Nadal will bagel Djokovic again.
In the 1st Set (which Djokovic won 6-3)........Djokovic got 74% of 1st Serves in........but Berrettini had Break Point in THREE of Djokovic's service games, and Deuce in FOUR of them.

And Nadal is moving a lot better than 2020 RG........and winning the last 9 games vs. Schwartzman is surreal........given that Nadal had never bagelled him before.

I love the 1st Set........nearly every winner of these matches has won the 1st Set.

Plus I don't think its possible for pressure to ever beat Nadal at Roland Garros.
He's been under pressure every year, and sometimes he was tying or beating Borg's record........and last year he was tying Federer's slam record and played his most dominant finals since 2008....

The biggest problem for Djokovic is that last year's RG Final is such a horrible memory........so if Nadal gets up an early break it could be very hard for Djokovic to have self-belief........and whoever wins the 1st Set tends to win the match in this rivarly.

But Nadal plays better when he's under pressure, in case you haven't figured it out yet........look at him tying Borg's RG record........passing Borg's RG record........and tying Federer's slam record........and look at him down a break in the 5th Set at 2013 RG vs. Djokovic.....
Also, Nadal will bagel or breadstick Djokovic if Djokovic repeats that 1st Set vs. Berrettini....
In the 1st Set (which Djokovic won 6-3)........Djokovic got 74% of 1st Serves in........but Berrettini had Break Point in THREE of Djokovic's service games, and Deuce in FOUR of them.

Just a reminder to everyone that this genius went from all of the above to "Nadal was probably the better player in RG SF 2021 excluding 8 double faults"

 

[RF-18]

FANTASTIC prediction. And oh boy did Djoko send shockwaves through the world. He can never be counted out.

 

[GabeT]

Just a reminder to everyone that this genius went from all of the above to "Nadal was probably the better player in RG SF 2021 excluding 8 double faults"

Good old Wrongalot. Probably the worst tennis analyst in this forum. Gotta love him!

Djokovic can no longer rely on Federer to usher him into the AO Final.
Stuck on 17 for life?

 

[Nadal_Django]

I was pretty close to the prediction, but I thought Nadal would have put more of a fight. Novak surpassed my expectations and Nadal underwhelmed considerably.

As always, excellent analysis @TennisFan3 . Respect

 

[Kralingen]

Just a reminder to everyone that this genius went from all of the above to "Nadal was probably the better player in RG SF 2021 excluding 8 double faults"

I much prefer this guy to the legions of “Nadal was AWFUL, worst clay performance ever, Djokovic win needs an asterisk” though lol. At least support your guy