As I've said before, unless Rafa brings less than his A- game either Djokerer (current or prime) has zero chance of dethroning him at RG. Both are not natural dirtballers and as such have struggled to clear
the all-important 60% mark in GW during their 2-week runs or the whole CC seasons, whereas
not cracking the ceiling would be news for the reigning king.
Granted
Novak's consistency is second to none but Nadal's since '91, but even he has yet to put together a dominant FO run except in '16 when he won an almost historic 64.9% of his games vs. a rather lackluster draw. Now you could say that's still damn impressive... but no more so than
Muster's '95 and Kafelnikov's '96 runs where they posted 64.5% and 64.3% respectively vs. (arguably) tougher draws. And none of 'em compares to Courier's '92 or Bruguera's '93 campaign with a whopping 67.5% and 68.8% each vs. clearly stronger opposition - Sergi's '93 run is in fact the only one I know of where the champ faced not one but two members of the 60% Club - and Nadal himself won a sensational 70.9% last year, his 3rd highest % to date after
'08 and '12 when he notched a hoo-hum 75.7% and an aw-shucks 71.0%.
Obviously that 70.9% comes with necessary caveats but you can see why I say Novak doesn't even get the better of prime Jim or Sergi, let alone Rafa. Barring those two '90s dirtmeisters or Guga firing on all cylinders (from the last 30-ish years) you're simply not beating Nadal at RG without a lot of help from him. Expect him to drop a match or two going into RG, but to take care of business as usual come the money rounds.