Novak's race to Federer's amazing 310 weeks started with Wimbledon 2019... Will he get this one at this time next year?

Novak is mathematically guaranteed for 267 weeks. I think this puts him at #1 until September 2nd. He could lose it at the end of the USO if Nadal or Federer go on epic runs and he does absolutely nothing.

From there he just has to outperform Nadal and Federer for the remainder of the year. Fed would likely NEED to win the US Open, which he hasn't done since 2008, and Nadal rarely plays the schedule after the USO. Nole is in a good position to get the number 1 by this time next year. If he doesn't get it with this current stint of number 1, he will likely only need 40 or so weeks for the remainder of his career.

Seems likely to get it
Yup. Incidentally, if he were to lose it the day after the US Open, his run would end one week shy of tying Connors for #4 for most weeks at #1, and three weeks shy of tying Lendl for #3. It's unlikely. But it could happen.
 

jm1980

G.O.A.T.
Roger himself actually may have been the best chance to protect his own record. Had he won Wimbledon it could've gotten interesting. But now Novak's gonna cruise to the record.
Djokovic is defending a whole lot of points starting now until the end of the season... USO (2000), WTF RU (1000), 2x M1000 (2x 1000) just off the top of my head
 

xFedal

Legend
What's crazy is Djokovic can pass Federer for weeks and year end number 1's DURING Federer's career - it's not like 20 yrs later or even a Federer/Sampras situation where the guy retires and someone comes along to break the records. Federer is still active and in contention at slams, as we saw this past Wimbledon.


Djokovic might have already done it if Murray didn't vulture tournaments and wild cards into Vienna to gain points to put himself in a postion where 1 match decided year end number 1. Good on him for winning the match, but if Nole won that match, he'd likely already have the weeks at number 1, and he'd be going for his 7th year end this year.

How many weeks at number 1 did Murray snag?
Murray basically vulture on atp500 tournaments as Djoker din't play them.... one could argue a slam should be 3000 points x6 as much as atp500.... not x4 2000 points. took about 40 weeks.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
Murray basically vulture on atp500 tournaments as Djoker din't play them.... one could argue a slam should be 3000 points x6 as much as atp500.... not x4 2000 points. took about 40 weeks.
I'm a Djokovic fan, but don't take that approach. The point system is very transparent to all, and Murray did what he had to do to attain #1, including winning his WTF showdown with Novak.
 

xFedal

Legend
I'm a Djokovic fan, but don't take that approach. The point system is very transparent to all, and Murray did what he had to do to attain #1, including winning his WTF showdown with Novak.
Do you agree with the opinion that 4 atp 500 tournaments should equal a slam which atp 2000 points? or should it be 3000 points for a slam?
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
Do you agree with the opinion that 4 atp 500 tournaments should equal a slam which atp 2000 points? or should it be 3000 points for a slam?
I'm not sure, and that's a separate issue, but let's play this out (or perhaps, start a new thread on it). Without doing each plateau, what would be your winner and runner-up points for: Slams, WTF, 1000s, 500s and 250s? Would you keep everything else the same, but go 3,000/1,500 or 1,800 (?) for slams?

One has to be careful to not put such a premium on majors, as that may serve to deemphasize all but those 8 weeks. I think it works pretty well now, although I would (though unpopular here) slightly reduce points for the WTF.
 

xFedal

Legend
I'm not sure, and that's a separate issue, but let's play this out (or perhaps, start a new thread on it). Without doing each plateau, what would be your winner and runner-up points for: Slams, WTF, 1000s, 500s and 250s? Would you keep everything else the same, but go 3,000/1,500 or 1,800 (?) for slams?

One has to be careful to not put such a premium on majors, as that may serve to deemphasize all but those 8 weeks. I think it works pretty well now, although I would (though unpopular here) slightly reduce points for the WTF.
Everything same, apart from slams.... slams should be 2500 to 3000 points....... 2 masters 1000 should not be the same as 1 slam....
 
I wonder how will Nadal do after the US Open. Obviously one wouldn't favor him to sweep that part of the season but he will gain something compared to zero from last year.

Djokovic should give his all to defend one of the hard court Majors, and do well in places where he can add a decent amount of points: Canada, Tokyo, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo; so he would have less pressure elsewhere. I think if he has a stable lead after Melbourne, the record will be his.

And I like how a lot of times his significant ranking moments happened at Wimbledon.

When he reached his first final and won his first title there in 2011, he became number 1 for the first time too.
He lost the top spot to Federer after losing to him there next year.
Then he got it back from Nadal when he won his second Wimbledon in 2014 and started his most dominant streak.
In 2016, the early loss began his sudden collapse.
But in 2018, a memorable fourth title started his return.
And in 2020, he can break the weeks at #1 record on the same week when, if he is good and lucky enough, he could win it for the sixth time.
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
I wonder how will Nadal do after the US Open. Obviously one wouldn't favor him to sweep that part of the season but he will gain something compared to zero from last year.

Djokovic should give his all to defend one of the hard court Majors, and do well in places where he can add a decent amount of points: Canada, Tokyo, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo; so he would have less pressure elsewhere. I think if he has a stable lead after Melbourne, the record will be his.

And I like how a lot of times his significant ranking moments happened at Wimbledon.

When he reached his first final and won his first title there in 2011, he became number 1 for the first time too.
He lost the top spot to Federer after losing to him there next year.
Then he got it back from Nadal when he won his second Wimbledon in 2014 and started his most dominant streak.
In 2016, the early loss began his sudden collapse.
But in 2018, a memorable fourth title started his return.
And in 2020, he can break the weeks at #1 record on the same week when, if he is good and lucky enough, he could win it for the sixth time.
Wimbledon is indeed special in Novak's career.
Besides ranking, he started his NCYGS by winning 2015 WB.
So far, every time he won WB, he won the next AO. And he won the next USO 3 times out of 4. In fact, in the 12 months periods following his previous 4 WB wins, out of 12 GS, he won 8, plus 2 F and 2 SF.
 

beard

Professional
First post updated:

After second big tournament Novak is still in lead (he couldn't lose this place anyway because Fed didn't play).
The Biggest difference is that Rafa is now in front of Federer. Will Rafa be the one to defend Feds record?
Cincinnati already started, list will be updated next week...

New table of Novaks race to immortality:

Novak Djokovic 2000
Rafael Nadal 1720
Roger Federer 1200
Daniil Medvedev 690
Kei Nishikori 370
Dominic Thiem 190
Alexander Zverev 190
Félix Auger-Aliassime 180

Stefanos Tsitsipas 20

Tournaments: Wimbledon, Canada, Cincinnati, USO...
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Ha, what happens in case of a tie? Not sure that has happened before :unsure:
Ties are broken by the most total points from Big Events (M1000, GS, and WTF). If they are still tied, then the one with fewer events. If still tied, then it's the most total points from one single tournament, (then second highest, third highest, until all events are exhausted.) If they are still tied at that point, the ATP has no way to break the tie.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Are you kidding me?

The race to London ...

Djokovic 6725, qualified
Nadal 6225, qualified
Federer 5060 and he'll get there too
.
.
.
Thiem 3315
Tsitsipas 2995
Zverev 1590 :eek:

Yeah, they are breathing. Sorry stupid joke but whatever :-D
I think this was a joke referring to the 3 of them losing 1st round at Wimbly
 
Ties are broken by the most total points from Big Events (M1000, GS, and WTF). If they are still tied, then the one with fewer events. If still tied, then it's the most total points from one single tournament, (then second highest, third highest, until all events are exhausted.) If they are still tied at that point, the ATP has no way to break the tie.
Wow interesting! Thanks @TripleATeam :)
 

bry17may

New User
Not just the race for July of next year is important, he needs to be No.1 in each week since now, for example

Race since february:

Nadal - 6025
Federer - 4880
Djokovic - 4635
 

Imperator

Professional
Fed moved the target from 286 to 310

Hoping Djoker can be an alpha male by moving target to 350
He needs to be twice as good as him to set a new bar then he’ll have to get an extra week, so at least 359 weeks. BUT that’s only if we don’t take the weak era into account, otherwise he needs at least 383 weeks to truly surpass him. BUT that’s only if we don’t take Federer’s age into account, he was 36 when he got 8 additional weeks at number 1 so Djokovic would need to be twice as good each year for 3 years and then add an extra week. So the new target is 432 weeks.
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
He needs to be twice as good as him to set a new bar then he’ll have to get an extra week, so at least 359 weeks. BUT that’s only if we don’t take the weak era into account, otherwise he needs at least 383 weeks to truly surpass him. BUT that’s only if we don’t take Federer’s age into account, he was 36 when he got 8 additional weeks at number 1 so Djokovic would need to be twice as good each year for 3 years and then add an extra week. So the new target is 432 weeks.
I think that bird has been killed. Leave it to worms.

Connors moved the target from 41 to 268 way back.

I'm afraid the next alpha will have to go beyond 500. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

mwym

Rookie
Fed moved the target from 286 to 310

Hoping Djoker can be an alpha male by moving target to 350
The longer Fedal still play/compete/do not retire, Djokovic is more likely to be motivated/win/achieve enough to be alone at the top.
And if they both retire tomorrow or get abducted by aliens this night, for how long Djokovic will be able to maintain the motivation without them - 3, 6, 9 ... months?
Ombeleeble, no?
 
He needs to be twice as good as him to set a new bar then he’ll have to get an extra week, so at least 359 weeks. BUT that’s only if we don’t take the weak era into account, otherwise he needs at least 383 weeks to truly surpass him. BUT that’s only if we don’t take Federer’s age into account, he was 36 when he got 8 additional weeks at number 1 so Djokovic would need to be twice as good each year for 3 years and then add an extra week. So the new target is 432 weeks.
I think you're forgetting quite how old Federer really is. He was 36 when he got mono at the start of 2008. By the time he got the eight additional weeks as #1, he was closer to 950, and that rounds up. So, he's basically 1,000 years old. In fact, he celebrated his 1,000th birthday last week, which means he's already 10,000 now.
 
Over the next 18 months we will see Fed's weeks at # 1 record fall, Pete's YE # 1 record equalled and potentially fall and Fed's slam record equalled or potentially fall.
The only one that will (almost) definitely remain intact through this generation is Sampras's consecutive year-end #1 record.
 

beard

Professional
Over the next 18 months we will see Fed's weeks at # 1 record fall, Pete's YE # 1 record equalled and potentially fall and Fed's slam record equalled or potentially fall.
Winter is coming for Fed and his fans. For Rafole its spring and summer is coming...

Nice times are in front of us.. the destiny will unfold and stars of justice will align :sneaky:
 

SaintPetros

Professional
Winter is coming for Fed and his fans. For Rafole its spring and summer is coming...

Nice times are in front of us.. the destiny will unfold and stars of justice will align :sneaky:
Rafolpras...remember Nole was heavily inspired by PETE and PETE greatly respects Nole.
 

Rafa24

Hall of Fame
I'm a Nadal fan but hope Djoker passes Feds weeks at number 1 count and they both pass Fed in the slam count.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
He does look good at the moment to hold onto the number one ranking at least until past USO. He understands the importance of really doing well in Cincy, if he defends his points these coming weeks, he will be very very hard to stop.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Fed fans in their holes.... Hiding from inevitable....
Djokovic likely to be pushing Nadal into third place at the rate he is going if he defends the USO. That will make Djokovic the closest he has been to the biggest prize, of getting to Federer.
 

beard

Professional
Djokovic likely to be pushing Nadal into third place at the rate he is going if he defends the USO. That will make Djokovic the closest he has been to the biggest prize, of getting to Federer.
Surely, but i think he was talking about weeks no1, not slams... Maybe i am wrong... And i wrote that record is inevitable to be broken, not slams... About slams its over 50% chance, even bookies say so...
 
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