Objective Look at the 4 Semifinalists - Wimbledon 2023

[Jonesy]

Why would Jannik be the favorite to win this Wimbledon? If not Novak, then I would rank Alcaraz or Medvedev above Sinner to win the tournament.

Jannik has the best stats so far in the tournament. That is peak form.

 

[Tweener]

With other words he won't

Is Sinner finnish?

 

[tennis_pro]

Objective way to look at it:
Djokovic - 80%
Alcaraz - 18%
Sinner - 1%
Medvedev - 1%

 

[DjokoLand]

Objective way to look at it:
Djokovic - 80%
Alcaraz - 18%
Sinner - 1%
Medvedev - 1%

No way is it 80%.

It’s more,

60% Djokovic
25% Alcaraz
10% Med
5% Sinner

 

[tennis_pro]

No way is it 80%.

It’s more,

60% Djokovic
25% Alcaraz
10% Med
5% Sinner

yeah, 60% > 80%

 

[Tweener]

No way is it 80%.

It’s more,

60% Djokovic
25% Alcaraz
10% Med
5% Sinner

If Djokovic gets to the final, it'll probably move back up to 80%.

 

[dr325i]

It's stupid to think that your idol is going to keep winning indefinitely.
And no, he's not going to win the Grand Slam this year either.

My favorite lost in the second round. My Idol has nothing to do with tennis.

Again, your statements reinforce what I said above. Thanks for confirming it.

 

[Kralingen]

Miller will be a fine pro, but I think the Blazers might have gotten the steal of the draft. MJ did Portland a solid with that pick. Only time will tell...

(Not to sidetrack this thread, but I'm betting Wemby will not win Rookie of the Year. Scoot will put up big numbers on a Dame-less Blazer team, and a reconstituted Chet Holmgren gets to be a rookie this year after sitting out last year. Those two are my favorites for ROY. I think Wemby needs a year or two of bulking up before he dominates, but I could be wrong.)

You’re being far too kind. Whatever the correct decision would be is the opposite of the one the Hornets make. I have zero doubt of that.

Michael Jordan is, simply put, the Michael Jordan of being a horrible NBA executive. He picked Adam Morrison FFS. Zero playoff wins in 15 years as owner. He has cursed the franchise for decades and cursed them even more with this awful pick.

And I even think Miller is a great player - 6’9” with that kind of shooting stroke is rare, and he’s a top level shot creator too. He will be an NBA starter for 10 years and probably a very consistent 18/6.

He’s just not a superstar, he’s just not Scoot Henderson… and that’s the swing the Hornets needed to take, not the good-but-not-great wing.

 

[Kralingen]

No way is it 80%.

It’s more,

60% Djokovic
25% Alcaraz
10% Med
5% Sinner

No way is it 80%.

It’s more,

60% Djokovic
25% Alcaraz
10% Med
5% Sinner

My odds:

65-35 Djokovic-Sinner
85-15 Alcaraz-Medvedev

55-45 Djokovic-Alcaraz

 

[TheNachoMan]

My odds:

65-35 Djokovic-Sinner
85-15 Alcaraz-Medvedev

55-45 Djokovic-Alcaraz

I actually agree with this. I have Djokovic as a slight favorite if he makes the final, but not by much. Carlos will feel the pressure of the lights and crowd more I think, he’s not used to it like Novak is.

 

[DSH]

My favorite lost in the second round. My Idol has nothing to do with tennis.

Again, your statements reinforce what I said above. Thanks for confirming it.

Of course, as if you were the champion of successes.

 

[Fabresque]

I’m not usually one to point out bad draws, you can only beat what’s in front of you, but Sinner’s draw is straight comedy. What even happened in that quarter? The only recognizable player who was a top player at one point was Schwartzman and he’s had a 0/10 season.

 

[travlerajm]

Dominance Level thru first 2 sets of semifinal:

Sinner: 1.29
Djokovic: 0.77

Sinner has been good at going deep into return games. But he throws in one dud of a service game per set. Djokovic’s level has been steadier without the peaks and valleys. This ability to avoid the valleys is hidden behind the stats.

 

[Checkmate]

Dominance Level thru first 2 sets of semifinal:

Sinner: 1.29
Djokovic: 0.77

Sinner has been good at going deep into return games. But he throws in one dud of a service game per set. Djokovic’s level has been steadier without the peaks and valleys.

@tennis_pro this mfer

 

[landcookie]

Just give Novak the trophy and we can all go home.

 

[Kralingen]

Dominance Level thru first 2 sets of semifinal:

Sinner: 1.29
Djokovic: 0.77

Sinner has been good at going deep into return games. But he throws in one dud of a service game per set. Djokovic’s level has been steadier without the peaks and valleys. This ability to avoid the valleys is hidden behind the stats.

I think this speaks to why dominance ratio, which is somewhat of an instructive statistic, can mean absolutely **** all

 

[travlerajm]

I think this speaks to why dominance ratio, which is somewhat of an instructive statistic, can mean absolutely **** all

It actually means a lot, but you also have to look at other things as well.

Certain players, like Zverev, Sinner, and Carlos lose a lot of matches with even with return point ratio >1.0. Djokovic is the opposite, as he wins matches often when he is <1.0.

In Carlos’ case, he often has inflated return points ratio because he is so lopsided in his return point prowess. He often wins the majority of deuce return points, but can be easily exploited on the ad side by players with a good wide ad serve.