Observations on Universal Tennis Ratings

[navigator]

I've been going to the UTR website every couple of months for the last year to see how ratings were shaking out among various folks that I know that play in different "classifications" (NTRP, senior, college, junior, etc). I've always thought NTRP was kind of silly and I was hopeful regarding UTR, but alas... it's got some major problems. Here are a few observations:

(1) The ratings are wildly inaccurate across classifications. For example, if you compare men that only play seniors events with boys that only play junior events, the ratings make almost no sense whatsoever. (And the players within these classifications almost never cross paths in actual tournaments.) Likewise, for example, if you compare the men that only play NTRP events with men that only play senior events, again the comparative ratings are way off.

A few examples. The guy who just won the over-50s World Championships has a 9.8 UTR. (He has an "official" or "complete" rating due to the high number of matches he's played.) Two U14s that I play and beat easily have (official) UTRs of 10+. The over-50s World Champion would beat me 60 60 (or thereabouts) in a typical match. These two U14s would struggle to get more than a few points each set. And yet they have higher (official) UTRs. So, this is way way way off... and not at all anecdotal (I could provide a lot more similar examples). Likewise, I know of a few guys that play almost solely NTRP events that have much higher UTRs than guys that would beat them, but who only play seniors events. Which leads to...

(2) The relative ratings appear to be roughly accurate within classifications. So, for example, when I look at a number of guys that I know who only play seniors events, their relative ratings aren't too far off. The better players tend to have higher UTRs roughly commensurate with their higher skill, and vice versa. Likewise in the case of guys that only play NTRP events - their UTRs relative to others that only play NTRP events look about right. The better players tend to have the commensurately higher UTRs. This appears to be the case with the juniors, college players, etc.

But once you try to compare, for example, junior boys with junior girls, or NTRP adults with senior players, or college players with junior players, etc... the whole thing goes to pot. The UTRs just don't make much sense. But... this should not be surprising because... these various groups rarely cross paths in tournaments. Perhaps if more folks start playing UTR tournaments then the ratings across these groups will improve, but... I don't know, I just don't see it happening.

(3) Too many "official" ratings are based on matches with players who don't have "official" ratings. I've mentioned this before - it's a "junk in, junk out" problem. If your "official" rating is based on matches largely played against opponents with "incomplete" ratings, then... that "official" rating is junk. For juniors who play a lot of tournaments or college players who play a lot of matches, etc, the statistical stew is pretty rich and the relative UTRs should be pretty good. But for the vast majority of players in the database... they're not so good.

Anyhow, I've always thought NTRP was pretty flawed. But it appears that UTR - at least when comparing across groups - is actually worse. I'll be interested to see if they can fix it.

[By the way, this guy did some good work on UTR with high school players and found it to be quite accurate. (http://alexslezak.com/2014/09/19/how-accurate-is-the-universal-tennis-rating-system/) This doesn't surprise me at all because... he limited his analysis to a single classification - male high school tennis players. He didn't try to compare across classifications - to include girls, for example.]

 

[Deleted member 23235]

agreed. i just chalked it up to UTR being in it's infancy.
i'm impossible to come up with ratings across classes unless you get folks from the different classes actually play each other.
lol, ideally there would be a single control variable (ie. 5.0/UTR 11) that played across all classes
UTR's probable is that they are not partnering with the powers that be (ie. USTA).
so for as long as juniors only have incentive to play for ranking points to move up the junior ladder (red, orange, green, yellow, L5->L1, etc...), to get a "legitimate" ranking, no one will be incentivized to play UTR tourneys
alternatively UTR tackles the problem from the college side (ie. let's say USTA has no interest in partnering with UTR - which i can see, to protect their business)...
when there's a critical mass of college recruiters who mainly look at UTR, then kids/parents will be more motivated to seek out and play UTR tourneys.

personally, as a player, I would love for UTR to really take off... i hear about kids/adults traveling everywhere for tourneys, when there's probably a ton of great competition locally (but possibly in the form of different age, gender, etc...)... i get annoyed when i have to go 30 min!

if i was the USTA, I probably wouldn't want to give up that control... because that's alot of $ in tournament fees, registrations, memberships, marketing, misc sales, etc... on the flip side, if i were the usta, i'd think creating a UTR-like rating system would grow participation... i'd pay extra for access to a accurate-based-on-playing-results "similar-playing-level-directory" of players (vs. dealing with craigslist or random websites of folks inflating their rating, etc..)

my $0.02

 

[LGQ7]

. . . i just chalked it up to UTR being in it's infancy. . . .

Any rating system is a rip off of the Elo Rating System from chess. It's the equation in the movie The Social Network.
http://www.3dkingdoms.com/chess/elo.htm

I instituted the Elo rating system in my tennis Meetup.

. . . (it's) impossible to come up with ratings across classes unless you get folks from the different classes actually play each other.
lol, ideally there would be a single control variable (ie. 5.0/UTR 11) that played across all classes . . .

You don't need ONE control variable as long as the players play each other "in a chain".

 

[jcgatennismom]

agreed. i just chalked it up to UTR being in it's infancy.
so for as long as juniors only have incentive to play for ranking points to move up the junior ladder (to get a "legitimate" ranking, no one will be incentivized to play UTR tourneys
alternatively UTR tackles the problem from the college side ..when there's a critical mass of college recruiters who mainly look at UTR, then kids/parents will be more motivated to seek out and play UTR tourneys.)

my $0.02

I wouldn't say UTR is in its infancy-it's been recording a lot of results for 3+ years. College coaches were asking about UTRs 1 1/2 years ago; even then coaches had in mind a minimum UTR as far as considering a recruit. However, that UTR rating just starts the ball rolling along with video-coaches would follow up by watching actual matches. Juniors or adults who do not want to go the UsTA route can play USTA men's opens (usually take all applicants), men's prize $, UTR events or even ITA Summer circuits. Most of those are seeded by UTR. If you read the fine print on the ITA site, anyone can get an ITA membership and play the summer circuits-there were over 50 last summer. Might be an option for some 4.0s-5.0s. My son was already invested in USTA so kept playing some juniors to get to Kzoo, but he also tried a lot of other options his last year of high school. To bump up one's UTR, a player could sign up for a Quali of a Future-best chance to get in is 128 draw. I saw the UTR of one international college player who was way overrated-he had won some Quali rounds in Finland last spring and lost 7 of his first 8 college matches but was still ranked at least .5 above the guys he lost to in the US. I do agree there needs to be more cross play for UTR to make sense across groups. The best way to improve a UTR is to play someone 1.0 higher and win some games. Conversely, a player can drop in UTR if they dont beat a lower player "big enough." Even if a player wins in 3 sets, he can drop in UTR if his total game count is less than his opponent, and that opponent is close in rating. Sometimes players have a bad set, and then they figure out how to play their opponent and win the next 2 but UTR counts games, not sets, not wins...

UTR has a lot of value as it is the only system that does a pretty good job of comparing high performance juniors, collegians, and young Future playing pros but it could stand some tweaks. Until there is more critical mass for non USTA playing high school team juniors and adult league players, the ratings for those groups probably are inaccurate. UTR does continually change its algorithm so there will be times when a whole group of players may drop .2 or .3. My biggest complaint about UTR is its 30 match maximum as for one player that could be a year's results and for another it could be less than 3 months' results. It doesnt seem fair for a player to be seeded higher in a tournament based on 10 month old results than another player who had wins against higher opponents that are only 6 months old, but those wins are outside the 30 limit.For example consider a D3 player who may play Power D1 players in summer tournaments; by spring those higher wins may have dropped off. The player's UTR could drop even though player won most of his matches. UTR rewards those who have the opportunity to player higher rated opponents whether they win or lose as long as match is competitive.

 

[Deanm85]

I've been going to the UTR website every couple of months for the last year to see how ratings were shaking out among various folks that I know that play in different "classifications" (NTRP, senior, college, junior, etc). I've always thought NTRP was kind of silly and I was hopeful regarding UTR, but alas... it's got some major problems. Here are a few observations:

(1) The ratings are wildly inaccurate across classifications. For example, if you compare men that only play seniors events with boys that only play junior events, the ratings make almost no sense whatsoever. (And the players within these classifications almost never cross paths in actual tournaments.) Likewise, for example, if you compare the men that only play NTRP events with men that only play senior events, again the comparative ratings are way off.

A few examples. The guy who just won the over-50s World Championships has a 9.8 UTR. (He has an "official" or "complete" rating due to the high number of matches he's played.) Two U14s that I play and beat easily have (official) UTRs of 10+. The over-50s World Champion would beat me 60 60 (or thereabouts) in a typical match. These two U14s would struggle to get more than a few points each set. And yet they have higher (official) UTRs. So, this is way way way off... and not at all anecdotal (I could provide a lot more similar examples). Likewise, I know of a few guys that play almost solely NTRP events that have much higher UTRs than guys that would beat them, but who only play seniors events. Which leads to...

(2) The relative ratings appear to be roughly accurate within classifications. So, for example, when I look at a number of guys that I know who only play seniors events, their relative ratings aren't too far off. The better players tend to have higher UTRs roughly commensurate with their higher skill, and vice versa. Likewise in the case of guys that only play NTRP events - their UTRs relative to others that only play NTRP events look about right. The better players tend to have the commensurately higher UTRs. This appears to be the case with the juniors, college players, etc.

But once you try to compare, for example, junior boys with junior girls, or NTRP adults with senior players, or college players with junior players, etc... the whole thing goes to pot. The UTRs just don't make much sense. But... this should not be surprising because... these various groups rarely cross paths in tournaments. Perhaps if more folks start playing UTR tournaments then the ratings across these groups will improve, but... I don't know, I just don't see it happening.

(3) Too many "official" ratings are based on matches with players who don't have "official" ratings. I've mentioned this before - it's a "junk in, junk out" problem. If your "official" rating is based on matches largely played against opponents with "incomplete" ratings, then... that "official" rating is junk. For juniors who play a lot of tournaments or college players who play a lot of matches, etc, the statistical stew is pretty rich and the relative UTRs should be pretty good. But for the vast majority of players in the database... they're not so good.

Anyhow, I've always thought NTRP was pretty flawed. But it appears that UTR - at least when comparing across groups - is actually worse. I'll be interested to see if they can fix it.

[By the way, this guy did some good work on UTR with high school players and found it to be quite accurate. (http://alexslezak.com/2014/09/19/how-accurate-is-the-universal-tennis-rating-system/) This doesn't surprise me at all because... he limited his analysis to a single classification - male high school tennis players. He didn't try to compare across classifications - to include girls, for example.]

Yes, you have said this much better than I could have. My gut feeling is that adult USTA leagues and seniors are under-rated. Perhaps this is because those groups are less likely to consume UTR. Junior and college players (men and women) are going to care about it mostly and I agree that their ratings seem to be much higher.

The only adult players I see with higher ratings are guys who also play tournaments. The cross-pollination works for tournament guys but hasn't filtered down to league players IMHO.

Also, and I've mentioned this on the board before....Doubles ratings are really bad. USTA players with a 5.0 NTRP have UTRs of 6 in my area (a tennis hot bed FWIW).

I feel like a lot of money is going into marketing UTR and making it ubiquitous. This is well and good but if the algorithm sucks then in the long term it will either get ignored or a competitor will come in and do things right.

I've seen UTR continue to grow despite my loud warnings so maybe they don't care if the algorithm is rock-solid. Or maybe it just will take some time for it to get better but with 185K league matches loaded I would expect more accurate ratings.

 

[navigator]

Also, and I've mentioned this on the board before....Doubles ratings are really bad. USTA players with a 5.0 NTRP have UTRs of 6 in my area (a tennis hot bed FWIW).

Yeah... my doubles partner and I were undefeated in the four 4.5 tournaments we entered over the last year and we're ranked #1 in So California and our UTR doubles ratings are in the low-8 range. Hey, it's interesting at least.

I've seen UTR continue to grow despite my loud warnings so maybe they don't care if the algorithm is rock-solid. Or maybe it just will take some time for it to get better but with 185K league matches loaded I would expect more accurate ratings.

I don't think they get more accurate between groups because (1) the matches roll off after 12 months, and more importantly (and mentioned above) (2) the groups tend not to play each other very much. College women aren't playing senior males; junior males aren't playing NTRP women, etc etc etc... there's not sufficient cross-pollination to make the UTRs meaningful across groups. But I do think they're a good tool for college coaches, for example, because they're looking at homogeneous groups (junior boys or junior girls, for example).

 

[Deanm85]

That's all fair. I agree that within groups UTR does a solid job. But, that's not nearly good enough.

It's annoying to see Super Champ 14 kids with a doubles UTR of 10 when I have a UTR of 7. In other words, they should beat me 6-0, 6-0 but I'm fairly certain my partner and I would win more than half the time. A UTR gap of 3 when it should be a gap of -2 is a massive miss.

Sure, there aren't that many matches between classes but they have uploaded a LOT of matches. The matches where juniors play adults or where women play men should be paid a lot of attention. There are some huge changes that need to take place. Not little tweaks.

It seems like several people in this community have figured this out without much effort. What happens when juniors start going out of their way to game the system? Oh, I have to play a tough opponent with a low UTR - withdrawal due to illness. I see a weak opponent with an inflated UTR in a small tournament - sign me up! It will eventually filter down to the college level where UTR is really making noise right now.

Time to hire some math folks and nip this in the bud.

 

[jcgatennismom]

That's all fair. I agree that within groups UTR does a solid job. But, that's not nearly good enough.

It's annoying to see Super Champ 14 kids with a doubles UTR of 10 when I have a UTR of 7. In other words, they should beat me 6-0, 6-0 but I'm fairly certain my partner and I would win more than half the time. A UTR gap of 3 when it should be a gap of -2 is a massive miss. ... The matches where juniors play adults or where women play men should be paid a lot of attention. There are some huge changes that need to take place. Not little tweaks.

Do most adult league players play out of neighborhood or out of clubs? It seems with league play, players have to be 18 to play adult USTA. From what I've heard, there is a lot more cross play between juniors and adults in European clubs. When my son played ALTA/USTA 18s top level and won City Finals at 13, there was no where else to go besides UsTA junior tournaments. He had played both jr tournaments (mostly in state) and league tennis from 10-13. Maybe USTA adult leagues should allow high schoolers to play on league tennis in the fall before high school team tennis in spring. The kids who play high school tennis dubs are probably the guys who will play club tennis in college, and they could be an asset to adult leagues. Now that high school teams can report their matches on UTR and get rated, I think some high school teams should have fundraising tournaments-get them sanctioned by UTR, invite the adult players for a cheap local weekend tourney, everybody wins, and there are crossplay results on UTR. There are some kids mature enough to hang with the adults or is the issue the teams couldnt bring beer if they had 16 y/o's playing? However 18 y/o's are not legal for beer either and they can play USTA.

 

[atatu]

I think it was a mistake for UTR to start including USTA league matches, they don't realize there is a lot of tanking that goes on in USTA league matches, which corrupts everything.

 

[atatu]

double

 

[OnTheLine]

Allowing 16 year olds would fully change the dynamic on most teams, even the non-beer-drinking teams. A lot of us adults are finally playing tennis because our kids our old enough to be on their own. We have lugged them around to everything and put our stuff on hold for 10-15 years and now it is "our turn". I actually think leagues would be diminished in their adult appeal with kids on them.

But back to UTR ... mentioned this before, not impressed. Hasn't updated a league result since Oct 11th. Being a whopping UTR of 3 rated (not projected) (female 3.5) I have looked at other area women with a 3 UTR and now I am playing with high level 4.0s and a few 4.5s. I would get destroyed. It certainly is not creating a good match-up.

I think for the adult playing world UTR at this point in time is not worthwhile. Perhaps for some at the higher end it is better ...

 

[Deanm85]

I just randomly looked at a guy in my area. He is a 3.5 male who went 5-9 in league play (in doubles). He's a UTR 2. That doesn't leave a lot of room for 3.0 NTRP males and below. Also doesn't leave a lot of room for 3.5 NTRP and 3.0 NTRP women.

I think schmke did a post a while back which said around 1% of players are rated 5.0 or above. When a 5.0 NTRP male is rated UTR 6 that doesn't leave a lot of room for the other 99% of USTA league players. Do we really need 8 or 9 levels to parse the differences between college level players and Roger Federer?

I seems the top 2000 ATP players could fight for UTRs between 15 and 16.5. That would leave more space for D1 college players, WTA players etc. When nearly every 5.0 NTRP doubles player in my region is in the bottom 60% of UTR (<= UTR 9) I have to laugh.

These guys are in the top 1% in USTA adult rec tennis for males. I'd estimate that among all humans who play tennis at least once a week they are in the top 1%. (If someone wants to argue that they are only in the top 5% I guess I would listen to that argument)

Why are top 95+% of all tennis players fighting for UTRs between 1-9 when less than 5% of players are fighting for UTRs between 10-16?

 

[gplracer]

The problem with UTR Is that when you play a player far below your level it is a good tome to work on things. Maybe you come into the net more. You win 6-2, 6-2. You win and your opponent is not humiliated. If the match counts toward your UTR rating then you beat that opponent as bad as you can beat him. If not your UTR might go down.

 

[MarTennis]

UTR is accurate. NTRP is feel good inaccurate. Most NTRP adults would get crushed by any child with an 8 UTR or above. Very similar to the WTA vs. ATP debate. Good middle age tennis is nothing like good junior tennis.

 

[MarTennis]

UTR ain't gonna work with adult league tennis. No "5.0 NTRP" is going to accept a 5 to 9 UTR.

 

[MarTennis]

The funny thing is that Adult tennis isn't going to have a choice unless they stop UTR from getting the scores. Fat chance. UTR business plan is to get ALL of nearly any official matches played in the world.

 

[Deleted member 23235]

UTR ain't gonna work with adult league tennis. No "5.0 NTRP" is going to accept a 5 to 9 UTR.

i think if you're playing 5.0, most folks are realistic and knowledgeable about where they stand in the tennis world... as they all probably played juniors.
so a 40y 5.0 knows he can't compete physically with a similarly trained teen (that recovers 2x faster)
i think the real slap of reality will hit folks at 4.0-4.5
3.5 still know they suck

 

[J011yroger]

I think we will see a lot of change this year and next with the integration of league play.

IMO UTR for league players is suppressed at least one full point probably more like 1.5-2.

@nytennisaddict and I are going to follow some juniors who turned 18 and are starting to play USTA.

J

 

[BallBag]

I think we will see a lot of change this year and next with the integration of league play.

IMO UTR for league players is suppressed at least one full point probably more like 1.5-2.

@nytennisaddict and I are going to follow some juniors who turned 18 and are starting to play USTA.

J

It's been off by about 1 UTR point in my experience. I played a couple UTR tournaments and I think I have a fair UTR rating compared to Juniors. Now I'm gonna take my ill-begotten UTR points and distribute them to the needy and elderly through league play.

 

[J011yroger]

It's been off by about 1 UTR point in my experience. I played a couple UTR tournaments and I think I have a fair UTR rating compared to Juniors. Now I'm gonna take my ill-begotten UTR points and distribute them to the needy and elderly through league play.

Last year I played a bunch of men's open tournaments and won a few over the winter/spring and was around 10, then after USTA season I was down around 9. I didn't get any worse but I figured losing a couple of games to a 7 or 8 in USTA was bringing me down until I realized that the 12-13 year old juniors at my club were 6-7 and they could barely win a couple games off 4.0-4.5 USTA players who were 6-7.

There are 5.0 men who are UTR 10 and could be winning rounds in futures qualies, and 5.0 men with ATP points and 13 UTR.

J

 

[J011yroger]

Hopefully their algorithm is sound and the more they play each other the more the ratings will smooth out.

J

 

[Deleted member 23235]

I think we will see a lot of change this year and next with the integration of league play.

IMO UTR for league players is suppressed at least one full point probably more like 1.5-2.

@nytennisaddict and I are going to follow some juniors who turned 18 and are starting to play USTA.

J

that will be interesting indeed.
side note... my utr got bumped (from 7.*) to 8.*... with no additional matches
just by virtue (i think) of one of the guys i lost to (3,1 - actually more competitive than that score indicates), getting bumped to utr 11...
so obviously the more that i or my opponents play, the more accurate it becomes.

 

[BallBag]

Last year I played a bunch of men's open tournaments and won a few over the winter/spring and was around 10, then after USTA season I was down around 9. I didn't get any worse but I figured losing a couple of games to a 7 or 8 in USTA was bringing me down until I realized that the 12-13 year old juniors at my club were 6-7 and they could barely win a couple games off 4.0-4.5 USTA players who were 6-7.

There are 5.0 men who are UTR 10 and could be winning rounds in futures qualies, and 5.0 men with ATP points and 13 UTR.

J

I think there's also a game type matchup that's not favoring the younger juniors. I don't think they see a lot of side spin and other junk that is common in adult league.

 

[J011yroger]

Million dollar blog post idea for @schmke check the UTR of the top and bottom 5 players at each NTRP and see how they change after the season and year.

J

 

[J011yroger]

I think there's also a game type matchup that's not favoring the younger juniors. I don't think they see a lot of side spin and other junk that is common in adult league.

I'm talking about fit 20-40 year old players, I don't have much experience with junkballers.

J

 

[OnTheLine]

I think we will see a lot of change this year and next with the integration of league play.

IMO UTR for league players is suppressed at least one full point probably more like 1.5-2.

@nytennisaddict and I are going to follow some juniors who turned 18 and are starting to play USTA.

J

I just PM'ed you guys a few to watch ... UTRs of 10 and 11

 

[Saul Goode]

Million dollar blog post idea for @schmke check the UTR of the top and bottom 5 players at each NTRP and see how they change after the season and year.

J

 

[travlerajm]

From what I’ve seen, it’s currently easier to game your UTR rating one direction or another than it is your NTRP rating just by choosing which types of events to play. Seems like UTR would be a lot more accurate if it could take mixed into account, since that’s the only place in usta that you have men and women playing against each other.

 

[J011yroger]

From what I’ve seen, it’s currently easier to game your UTR rating one direction or another than it is your NTRP rating just by choosing which types of events to play. Seems like UTR would be a lot more accurate if it could take mixed into account, since that’s the only place in usta that you have men and women playing against each other.

Kind of funny that they don't support it since it's the entire premise of their system.

J

 

[HunterST]

It seems like UTR just assigns a number to obvious facts about competition level rather than revealing true playing level. That is, it just replaces "plays 4.0 adult league matches" with 5 or 6, or "plays sections 16s" with 8 or 9. I don't think it's so accurate or powerful that it can reveal their level beyond what is obvious.

 

[S&V-not_dead_yet]

It seems like UTR just assigns a number to obvious facts about competition level rather than revealing true playing level. That is, it just replaces "plays 4.0 adult league matches" with 5 or 6, or "plays sections 16s" with 8 or 9. I don't think it's so accurate or powerful that it can reveal their level beyond what is obvious.

It seems pretty accurate and UTR has more granularity [since the USTA doesn't release decimal ratings]. It also allows comparison between adults and juniors and in my limited experience, it's accurate.

 

[J011yroger]

It seems pretty accurate and UTR has more granularity [since the USTA doesn't release decimal ratings]. It also allows comparison between adults and juniors and in my limited experience, it's accurate.

Juniors are overrated compared to adult league players in my experience.

J

 

[S&V-not_dead_yet]

Juniors are overrated compared to adult league players in my experience.

J

If I had to choose between over-rated and under-rated, I'd take the over as well. But not by that much. Certainly not one NTRP level.

 

[J011yroger]

If I had to choose between over-rated and under-rated, I'd take the over as well. But not by that much. Certainly not one NTRP level.

I'd say 1-1.5 UTR levels. So maybe .5 NTRP points?

J

 

[S&V-not_dead_yet]

I'd say 1-1.5 UTR levels. So maybe .5 NTRP points?

J

In my [admittedly limited] experience, it's closer to, say 0.5 - 0.75 UTR.

 

[time_fly]

The junior vs adult debate is tough because there is such a wide range of what “junior” could mean. With respect to 14 year olds, however, I have some experience because my son is 14 (and I am 46). He is really into sports but very casual about tennis. One thing I can say is that kids do a lot more athletic training than I did when I was a kid, but then again I also work out with a trainer now. That provides another basis for comparison.

at our respective ages, adults are still overall a bit more athletic. He is just starting to edge me out in speed exercises like suicides (and I’ve had 3 knee surgeries). In strength and balance exercises he still isn’t that close even with his three times per week workouts. I can chest press around 3 to 4 times as much weight as he can. There are some stronger kids his age on his teams but not that much stronger. He still struggles with complex agility drills, TRX and stability ball exercises, etc.

I’m sure by the time he is 16 he will turn the tables but when it comes to these younger ages I don’t think teens have the edge on adults for physical reasons.

 

[J011yroger]

The junior vs adult debate is tough because there is such a wide range of what “junior” could mean. With respect to 14 year olds, however, I have some experience because my son is 14 (and I am 46). He is really into sports but very casual about tennis. One thing I can say is that kids do a lot more athletic training than I did when I was a kid, but then again I also work out with a trainer now. That provides another basis for comparison.

at our respective ages, adults are still overall a bit more athletic. He is just starting to edge me out in speed exercises like suicides (and I’ve had 3 knee surgeries). In strength and balance exercises he still isn’t that close even with his three times per week workouts. I can chest press around 3 to 4 times as much weight as he can. There are some stronger kids his age on his teams but not that much stronger. He still struggles with complex agility drills, TRX and stability ball exercises, etc.

I’m sure by the time he is 16 he will turn the tables but when it comes to these younger ages I don’t think teens have the edge on adults for physical reasons.

That's not what we are talking about.

The numbers are supposed to line up so a UTR 6 45 year old man should be competitive with a UTR 6 junior girl.

In reality the UTR 6 adult man will likely win 2&2.

J

 

[S&V-not_dead_yet]

The junior vs adult debate is tough because there is such a wide range of what “junior” could mean. With respect to 14 year olds, however, I have some experience because my son is 14 (and I am 46). He is really into sports but very casual about tennis. One thing I can say is that kids do a lot more athletic training than I did when I was a kid, but then again I also work out with a trainer now. That provides another basis for comparison.

at our respective ages, adults are still overall a bit more athletic. He is just starting to edge me out in speed exercises like suicides (and I’ve had 3 knee surgeries). In strength and balance exercises he still isn’t that close even with his three times per week workouts. I can chest press around 3 to 4 times as much weight as he can. There are some stronger kids his age on his teams but not that much stronger. He still struggles with complex agility drills, TRX and stability ball exercises, etc.

I’m sure by the time he is 16 he will turn the tables but when it comes to these younger ages I don’t think teens have the edge on adults for physical reasons.

I agree on the physical side. But the edge a trained teen has, besides quickness, speed, and endurance, is the ability to consistently hit GSs. The typical adult is not anywhere nearly that consistent. So if the adult can make it about power, he'll have the upper hand. If it's about grinding, the teen has the edge.

 

[S&V-not_dead_yet]

That's not what we are talking about.

The numbers are supposed to line up so a UTR 6 45 year old man should be competitive with a UTR 6 junior girl.

In reality the UTR 6 adult man will likely win 2&2.

J

But at least UTR has the theoretical possibility of being an accurate way of comparing groups as long as there is play among groups. NTRP never will be because those groups don't mix.

I'd say the shortcoming of UTR currently is simply not enough cross-pollination; with more and more UTR tournaments coming online, that problem should get smaller over time.

 

[J011yroger]

But at least UTR has the theoretical possibility of being an accurate way of comparing groups as long as there is play among groups. NTRP never will be because those groups don't mix.

I'd say the shortcoming of UTR currently is simply not enough cross-pollination; with more and more UTR tournaments coming online, that problem should get smaller over time.

I agree. The other issue is your typical league hacker plays 6 matches a year and your typical junior plays 40 so it's tough to get a read.

J

 

[S&V-not_dead_yet]

I agree. The other issue is your typical league hacker plays 6 matches a year and your typical junior plays 40 so it's tough to get a read.

J

Us rec adults under-estimate how many matches those juniors are playing.

I once played a UTR tournament and noticed that one opponent's UTR had changed twice within a month of me playing him [+1 then -1].

 

[schmke]

Us rec adults under-estimate how many matches those juniors are playing.

I once played a UTR tournament and noticed that one opponent's UTR had changed twice within a month of me playing him [+1 then -1].

Shoot, in the past two weeks I've played once and my UTR has changed at least 3 times going up 0.9 in one change.

 

[J011yroger]

Shoot, in the past two weeks I've played once and my UTR has changed at least 3 times going up 0.9 in one change.

Mine went from almost 11 to barely 10 without me playing a match!

J

 

[schmke]

Mine went from almost 11 to barely 10 without me playing a match!

J

If it was a week or two ago, they just transferred some of your points to me

 

[J011yroger]

If it was a week or two ago, they just transferred some of your points to me

You're welcome. Please give me my serve back before spring. I've been throwing batting practice for a few weeks.

J

 

[schmke]

You're welcome. Please give me my serve back before spring. I've been throwing batting practice for a few weeks.

J

If you gave me your serve, UTR took a pretty big cut of the transaction.

 

[travlerajm]

Mine went from almost 11 to barely 10 without me playing a match!

J

that’s nothing. Mine dropped from 10 to 8 without me playing a match. I think they built a participation penalty into the algorithm.

 

[S&V-not_dead_yet]

that’s nothing. Mine dropped from 10 to 8 without me playing a match. I think they built a participation penalty into the algorithm.

Sandbagger! Startzel will be paying you a visit.

 

[Nostradamus]

Accurate in the ATP tour where pros play a lot and consistently play. but not accurate in the amateurs where play is spotty and on and off. So only use it for pros but get rid of it in amateurs.

 

[travlerajm]

Sandbagger! Startzel will be paying you a visit.

The funny thing is that I was actually playing a lot of mixed during that same stretch (which UTR ignores) and playing a bit better mixed doubles than in the past and watching my mixed TR.com rating climb from mid 4.5 to the edge of 5.0. I think USTA also ignores mixed, so i think there is no risk of me getting bumped anytime soon even if I continue to improve my mixed play. Anybody know how long it takes to get a mixed exclusive rating?