RaulRamirez
Legend
My understanding of statistics is limited, but let's look at this way. My personal opinion of whether I'm rooting for Novak to complete it or not (which would be the first since Laver in '69 - the first full year of the Open Era) is irrelevant.
Djokovic has already, of course won the AO and RG. I'm not sure how that figures in now, so let's look ahead.
Novak has won 5 of the 15 Wimbledons he's entered, which by that measure, would give him a .33 chance.
He has won 3 of the 15 USOs he's entered ...........................................................which would give him a .2 chance.
Statistically, by this measure, he will have .066 chance of winning both ...so a little less than 7%.
(if you flip a coin, the odds of two heads in a row is .5 x.5 = .25)
If we want to look it more favorably, we can look at it since he started being a dominant - or at least co-dominant - figure in 2011.
Starting that year, Novak has won 5/9 Wimbledons he has entered (.55 %) and 3 out of 9 USOs he's entered (.33), so achieving both by this measure would give him about an 18% chance.
Other factors that may diminish these odds are:
He has yet to win RG and Wimb in the same year.
He'll be an even bigger target, with possibly more pressure.
Again, nobody has done this (although, of course, Novak did have the 15-16 NCYGS...quite impressive) in 52 years.
Why did I post all this?
I just think that we have to respect unique achievements more than we do.
Nobody just shows up and wins a "slam", let alone strings two, three or four together.
I say this to both his overconfident fans and his detractors.
Respect the game, the players and their achievements.
Djokovic has already, of course won the AO and RG. I'm not sure how that figures in now, so let's look ahead.
Novak has won 5 of the 15 Wimbledons he's entered, which by that measure, would give him a .33 chance.
He has won 3 of the 15 USOs he's entered ...........................................................which would give him a .2 chance.
Statistically, by this measure, he will have .066 chance of winning both ...so a little less than 7%.
(if you flip a coin, the odds of two heads in a row is .5 x.5 = .25)
If we want to look it more favorably, we can look at it since he started being a dominant - or at least co-dominant - figure in 2011.
Starting that year, Novak has won 5/9 Wimbledons he has entered (.55 %) and 3 out of 9 USOs he's entered (.33), so achieving both by this measure would give him about an 18% chance.
Other factors that may diminish these odds are:
He has yet to win RG and Wimb in the same year.
He'll be an even bigger target, with possibly more pressure.
Again, nobody has done this (although, of course, Novak did have the 15-16 NCYGS...quite impressive) in 52 years.
Why did I post all this?
I just think that we have to respect unique achievements more than we do.
Nobody just shows up and wins a "slam", let alone strings two, three or four together.
I say this to both his overconfident fans and his detractors.
Respect the game, the players and their achievements.