Official 2022 ratings thread.

I have amazing luck. If only 4% of southern players were bumped, and I played 7 different opponent in singles who all got bumped. What are the odds.
 
schmke said:
Something looks fishy.

Was a 2017 4.0C, rating expired, had to self-rate. Didn't play much Adult in the regular season, won a 4.5 match, then two low rated losses that are suspicious looking as the match ratings are aberrations from the first 4.5 match and the 4.0 matches she played at Nationals. And didn't play any matches after these first three until Nationals when she couldn't be DQ'd during the event.
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Also her UTR is 6.57/6.95. The few local 5.0 bumps were around 6.7 for dubs. Are self rates getting under promoted this year?
 
BallBag said:
Also her UTR is 6.57/6.95. The few local 5.0 bumps were around 6.7 for dubs. Are self rates getting under promoted this year?
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When they tank a few matches and only play 7 total, sure. She'd be a mid-level 4.5 if she had an M rating.
 
I was expecting to stay as a 3.5 because I was 2-2 as a 3.5S on a 7.5 team, but during this same season I also joined the worst 6.5 combo team in the league (and was too nice to take the invite and move to the best team because I'd already committed, and I didn't think about how this might affect ratings) and our team lost every match except for one (like one doubles court on our team got one win all season) and i think this was the main contributing factor for getting bumped down to 3.0. If I was 3.0, should I have gone 0-4 on the 7.5 team? Oh well.

I beat and lose to 3.5's throughout the season

I was in a 3.5 USTA tournament and went 2-0 straight set matches in singles before having to medically withdraw during my doubles match (0, 2) due to cramps

I guess I'll see if I can DQ myself out of 3.0
 
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time_fly said:
I wonder where the 8% bumped up in New England were? I saw almost no changes in Eastern and Southern CT and I checked a pretty decent number of rosters since I play 3.5 and 4.0 in both regions. As for Southern, that's all fall-out from MEP getting whipped on Essential Tennis by Milwuakee-area 4.0s and 4.5s :-D
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schmke said:
An important factor in the year-end leveling of the sections for sure.
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:). all in good fun, just thinking about the self-rate singles players in southern sectionals, would beat most of the essential tennis crew, MEP and Ian included. And yes, Ian and MEP are 4.5 players, but the self raters are 4.0. There are multiple tennis "worlds".
 
time_fly said:
I wonder where the 8% bumped up in New England were? I saw almost no changes in Eastern and Southern CT and I checked a pretty decent number of rosters since I play 3.5 and 4.0 in both regions. As for Southern, that's all fall-out from MEP getting whipped on Essential Tennis by Milwuakee-area 4.0s and 4.5s :-D
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Wasn’t any of our guys as none of our singles guys got bumped
 
ChaelAZ said:
Every single player on every team I have played with was at least bumped once, but most multiple times, and most have stayed. I have never, now in 10+ years, even in good seasons, got bumped. It has become a running joke of being the "best 3.5 ever" on our teams and with people I play with in leauges. Jokes getting old.
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I agree the joke is really old. I went 14-2 this year and 8-0 in 2020 and still didn't get bumped. The two losses were in mixed where after about 4 games the other team figured out not to hit me the ball so I didn't see them for the rest of the match. Even in those, they were 3rd set tie break losses. Working in college tennis I spend a good amount of time tracking and looking up UTR. According to UTR I am on par with all the guys from my team that did get bumped this year and many of my friends that have been bumped in years past. At one point this year playing doubles my partner and I (3 different partners) lost 4 games over the course of 3 matches. Despite not getting bumped I will likely join a 4.0 team in the spring and forego 3.5. Not only because I'm tired of beating people to a pulp but because switching from Wednesday nights to Tuesday nights would be much more convenient with work demands. I also played and won 3 singles matches this year out of team necessity and only split sets one time. The other two matches were 2-1 and 2-0. I know fall matches don't count but I truly don't understand. How many spring matches do you have to play for the algorithm to recognize the level?
 
SavvyStringer said:
I agree the joke is really old. I went 14-2 this year and 8-0 in 2020 and still didn't get bumped. The two losses were in mixed where after about 4 games the other team figured out not to hit me the ball so I didn't see them for the rest of the match. Even in those, they were 3rd set tie break losses. Working in college tennis I spend a good amount of time tracking and looking up UTR. According to UTR I am on par with all the guys from my team that did get bumped this year and many of my friends that have been bumped in years past. At one point this year playing doubles my partner and I (3 different partners) lost 4 games over the course of 3 matches. Despite not getting bumped I will likely join a 4.0 team in the spring and forego 3.5. Not only because I'm tired of beating people to a pulp but because switching from Wednesday nights to Tuesday nights would be much more convenient with work demands. I also played and won 3 singles matches this year out of team necessity and only split sets one time. The other two matches were 2-1 and 2-0. I know fall matches don't count but I truly don't understand. How many spring matches do you have to play for the algorithm to recognize the level?
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Can't say specifically without knowing details, but a few things.

One, Mixed doesn't count if you got a 3.5C. So not sure how much of the 22-2 was Mixed but that might help explain it.

Two, if you primarily play doubles, the rating of your partner matters a lot, just as much as those of your opponents. If you play with high rated partners, you may be expected to win easily and doing so won't raise your rating, and in fact can lower your rating if you don't win by as much as expected.
 
There was a guy in my league who had never played USTA before but he self rated as 4.5. He lost both his matches 0-6 0-6. I wonder, if he had lost a 3rd match 0-6, 0-6, and gotten a computer rating, what they would have given him.
 
silverwyvern4 said:
There was a guy in my league who had never played USTA before but he self rated as 4.5. He lost both his matches 0-6 0-6. I wonder, if he had lost a 3rd match 0-6, 0-6, and gotten a computer rating, what they would have given him.
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The lowest rating you can get from a match is opponent’s dynamic rating minus 0.5 so he’ll be a 4.0
 
time_fly said:
There weren't a lot of changes for the teams that I am on. A few of the 4.0 teams that we play against had a few guys bumped down, which means I will probably start seeing them in my 3.5 team matches. I play in two different 3.5 leagues (different regions and age levels) and I found only 3 players bumped up from 3.5 to 4.0 across both flights. Even a guy who went a combined 10-1 in 2020 and 2021 didn't make it.

On the ladies' side, there's an egregious cheater who self rated at 3.0 in 2019, appealed or was DQed to 3.5C in 2020, and was handing out bagels and breadsticks in the 4.0 league for the past 2 years playing "up" as a 3.5. She has a combined 46-3 record since joining USTA. Well she's now a 4.0C, so I guess she can take home another 20 or so lopsided wins this year before ending up as a 4.5C where she belongs.

Ratings this year were kind of boring honestly given that we had 2 years of matches to go on.
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Not a lot of changes in our area either.
 
antony said:
I was expecting to stay as a 3.5 because I was 2-2 as a 3.5S on a 7.5 team, but during this same season I also joined the worst 6.5 combo team in the league (and was too nice to take the invite and move to the best team because I'd already committed, and I didn't think about how this might affect ratings) and our team lost every match except for one (like one doubles court on our team got one win all season) and i think this was the main contributing factor for getting bumped down to 3.0. If I was 3.0, should I have gone 0-4 on the 7.5 team? Oh well.

I beat and lose to 3.5's throughout the season

I was in a 3.5 USTA tournament and went 2-0 straight set matches in singles before having to medically withdraw during my doubles match (0, 2) due to cramps

I guess I'll see if I can DQ myself out of 3.0
Click to expand...

Why? You can always play up. I always play on my 4.5 team, even the years when my rating is 4.0 (USTA bumps me back and forth most years).
 
schmke said:
I've started doing all the analysis on my blog, but one early observation is that despite Southern doing very well at Nationals, their bump up rate was nothing extraordinary. In fact, the men as a whole had a historic bump down rate certainly not seen for Southern or perhaps any other section in the time I've been analyzing ratings. Here is the men's chart.

2021bumpsbysection-M.png

The other sections are all pretty normal, bump up rates around 8-10% and bump down rates around 4-6%.

But Southern had nearly 15% of men bumped down? And only 4% bumped up?

In 2019 we had the Great Southern Bump, and then the subsequent curious notification to some players that they should appeal down and a large number of those were granted, so it feels like this is a continued correction for what was perhaps an inappropriate bump up in 2019. But this still feels awfully extreme.
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In Southern and bumps were minimal for the men. Women's side was a little different. But there were teams that went to sectional finals and had zero bumps.
 
schmke said:
Can't say specifically without knowing details, but a few things.

One, Mixed doesn't count if you got a 3.5C. So not sure how much of the 22-2 was Mixed but that might help explain it.

Two, if you primarily play doubles, the rating of your partner matters a lot, just as much as those of your opponents. If you play with high rated partners, you may be expected to win easily and doing so won't raise your rating, and in fact can lower your rating if you don't win by as much as expected.
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I think this is what happened to me. My two normal doubles partners got bumped and I didn't, the only difference was I played a match with a player that appealed down due to recovering from an injury and we lost the match.
 
Purestriker said:
I think this is what happened to me. My two normal doubles partners got bumped and I didn't, the only difference was I played a match with a player that appealed down due to recovering from an injury and we lost the match.
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And if the A partner was high rated (likely due to the appeal down) and you lost, that likely rated low for you because of the high rated partner and corresponding expectation of winning.
 
Doan said:
You'd also have to find a 4.5 captain that would let him play the required 3 matches. Suppose its possible if you pay him enough.
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Yes, to achieve this, you'd have to have a person who's never picked up a racket before self-rate at 4.5, find a 4.5 team that would allow him to join, and then play 3 matches (and lose all three 6-0 6-0 presumably) to get a 4.0 C rating at the end of the year. Seems incredibly stupid and pointless in a countless number of ways, but I suppose it's technically possible.
 
schmke said:
I believe I found the player, and a good part of that 14-4 was Mixed so doesn't count. And yes, he played with very strong partners against so-so opponents on average so that was a factor. I didn't have him bumped down to 4.5, but very close to doing so.
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He played a few singles too and almost won vs a former #1 USC. He used to be a 5 star recruit in the juniors and is only 23 years old atm
 
Goof said:
Why? You can always play up. I always play on my 4.5 team, even the years when my rating is 4.0 (USTA bumps me back and forth most years).
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I might want to play up in a 4.0 event later on next year

Oh well, gotta work harder this new season
 
computerratings.blogspot.com

Analyzing 2021 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Section bump rates by gender

2021 year-end ratings have been published , and my analysis continues. I looked at some high level bump stats earlier , now we start to take...
computerratings.blogspot.com computerratings.blogspot.com

computerratings.blogspot.com

Analyzing 2021 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - An initial look at some high level stats

2021 year-end ratings are out , so now we can begin looking at some stats. First, by my calculations over 251K players received a year-end r...
computerratings.blogspot.com computerratings.blogspot.com

Awesome information thanks for pulling this together for everyone!

I have two very speculative theories:

1) USTA did not want to make it seem like nationals this year was FUBAR due to their failing to rate people in 2020. So they changed the math somehow to show fewer bump ups. Maybe they adjusted each section up. This could explain why there are so many bump downs in what I would think are big usta sections in Southern and Texas. These sections have so many players including Southern or at least Atlanta that had a .25 league right? So while if someone is a low level player in say northern they just won't get played on a team. But there in southern and texas there are enough teams that even the lower rated players get played. So when USTA moved the thresholds up they ended up with the most bump downs.

2) Texas and Southern complained about not doing well at nationals and since they have a large number of players USTA helped them out.
 
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I'm showing several people that played on the champion 9.0 mixed doubles team that still show a self rate from the prior year. Shouldn't they show at least a mixed rating for the current year?

Edit: it seems the only way you get a mixed rating is if your mixed rating is higher than your old self rating. Otherwise your old self rating seems to stand as your official rating.
 
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Moon Shooter said:
I'm showing several people that played on the champion 9.0 mixed doubles team that still show a self rate from the prior year. Shouldn't they show at least a mixed rating for the current year?

Edit: it seems the only way you get a mixed rating is if your mixed rating is higher than your old self rating. Otherwise your old self rating seems to stand as your official rating.
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Not sure the latter is true, I don't believe I've seen that in practice. What led you to believe that is the case?

I'm guessing the USTA just makes little effort to calculate full M ratings like they do for C ratings. For the 9.0 team you mention:
  • One player played 3 matches, 1 against another self-rate that only played 2 matches. I've seen this occur in Adult league and the player that played 3 matches gets a year-end rating, but it appears in this case the player didn't get an M rating.
  • Another played 4 matches, but 2 were against other self-rates that only played 2 matches.
  • Another just like the 1st above
  • Another played 10 matches including 5 at Nationals and didn't get a rating. Not sure how to explain it, doesn't seem to be an edge case.
  • Another played 11 matches including 5 at Nationals and didn't get a rating. Not sure how to explain it either.
Something strange is going on, I'll have to look into it more.
 
silverwyvern4 said:
There was a guy in my league who had never played USTA before but he self rated as 4.5. He lost both his matches 0-6 0-6. I wonder, if he had lost a 3rd match 0-6, 0-6, and gotten a computer rating, what they would have given him.
Click to expand...

We had a situation this year where a guy self-rated at 3.5 and then tried to join our team. I gave him a quick tryout and he was clearly a 3.0. I was able to put him in touch with the LLC and explained the situation, and they let him re-rate as a 3.0. It's possible this guy could do something similar, although since he was on a team and played matches already it might be trickier.
 
time_fly said:
I wonder where the 8% bumped up in New England were? I saw almost no changes in Eastern and Southern CT and I checked a pretty decent number of rosters since I play 3.5 and 4.0 in both regions. As for Southern, that's all fall-out from MEP getting whipped on Essential Tennis by Milwuakee-area 4.0s and 4.5s :-D
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I was one of them I guess(in NH), got bumped up to 4.0 finally, but I hear you.. I know of no one in area who I play with who got bumped up or down(mix of 3.5's to 4.5's).
 
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time_fly said:
I wonder where the 8% bumped up in New England were? I saw almost no changes in Eastern and Southern CT and I checked a pretty decent number of rosters since I play 3.5 and 4.0 in both regions.
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It looks like Rhode Island might have had a fairly high bump-up rate.

You can check a whole league flight at once using NTRP rating advanced search. For example if you drill down to 2021 Rhode Island 18+ men's league, 3.5 flight, and then under the line select Gender: Male, Level: 4.0, you can see the 13 guys who played in that 3.5 league who are now rated 4.0 (versus only about 60 who are still 3.5).
 
mhj202 said:
I took a quick look and it looked like overall 13 of the Utah guys got bumped.
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I'm counting 19 guys who played for that 4.0 Utah captain who got bumped to 4.5, which does not even include the 4 guys who were already 4.5D. My count includes anyone on his 18+ and 40+ teams from 2020 and 2021.
 
schmke said:
No.

But certain players aren't eligible to appeal, notably those that went to Nationals or those that were DQ'd in the prior year.
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I've never heard that players who go to nationals can't appeal. Did you learn that from a back channel or is that explicitly stated somewhere?
 
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