*Official* Federer returning to No 1 thread.

topspn

Legend
I don’t think Fed is interested in being ranked 1 and will play a fairly easy schedule. He will get more rest and only play a schedule that preps him for slams and may even skip clay season again. At his age, his goals changed with balancing family, more rest time and maintaining his fitness
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Federer needs to be motivated at this stage of his career to stay focused. Taking 1 or 2 months between tournaments definitely helps. He should rest until IW and Miami, and then go full on, all out.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
I'm actually mildly annoyed that he's been #2 by such a small margin for such a long time. Especially as he's been the better player over the last year.

I really hope he can get there for at least a single week to claim #1 at 36/37. Looks very likely now.
He has not been the better player for the past year until he won the AO. Now he's right on Nadal's famous ass... the ranking system works perfectly well.
 

Mr Feeny

Hall of Fame
He has not been the better player for the past year until he won the AO. Now he's right on Nadal's famous ass... the ranking system works perfectly well.
The ranking system does work perfectly. I don't know how anyone can dispute that. But having the most points and being the better player don' necessarily have to be one and the same. Federer got injured in the fall and had skipped the entire clay court season. He played much less than Nadal did.

When they both did, Federer had better results. Over the season, (I'll have to double check the stats), but I'm sure that Federer has a much better winning percentage than Rafa. That is not to say that Nadal does not deserve the number 1 ranking. He absolutely does.
It's Fed's problem that he skipped the clay court season, and injuries are a parcel of the game so nothing untoward there with regards to the fall campaign derailing his bid for the number 1 ranking.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
The ranking system does work perfectly. I don't know how anyone can dispute that. But having the most points and being the better player don' necessarily have to be one and the same. Federer got injured in the fall and had skipped the entire clay court season. He played much less than Nadal did.

When they both did, Federer had better results. Over the season, (I'll have to double check the stats), but I'm sure that Federer has a much better winning percentage than Rafa. That is not to say that Nadal does not deserve the number 1 ranking. He absolutely does.
It's Fed's problem that he skipped the clay court season, and injuries are a parcel of the game so nothing untoward there with regards to the fall campaign derailing his bid for the number 1 ranking.
Fed is the better player at this point after winning the AO, and he will be #1 soon, these impatient kids just need to wait. Like you said the ranking system does work perfectly. Nadal played a full season and won 2 slams.
 

Mr Feeny

Hall of Fame
Fed is the better player at this point after winning the AO, and he will be #1 soon, these impatient kids just need to wait. Like you said the ranking system does work perfectly. Nadal played a full season and won 2 slams.
Yeah. No disagreement there. If he doesn't play Dubai and doesn't get it, it's what it is. A ranking system is objective. Whoever gets the number 1 ranking will have deserved it.
 

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
Fed said he's been in discussion with Dubai, and has neither confirmed nor ruled it out. I do like the idea of him playing Dubai, but with the Match for Africa it might be too much.

It would be kind of fun though - almost as though he and Nadal would be playing against each other for the ranking in different cities. Could it put some doubt in Nadal's mind about playing Acapulco if he's not feeling 100% yet? Whereas if Roger doesn't play, Rafa will know he only needs the semis in Acapulco.
 

roysid

Hall of Fame
I don’t think Fed is interested in being ranked 1 and will play a fairly easy schedule. He will get more rest and only play a schedule that preps him for slams and may even skip clay season again. At his age, his goals changed with balancing family, more rest time and maintaining his fitness
He has repeatedly said that he won't persue it by channgch schedule but doesn't mean he is not interested.

He always plays Dubai, so that's not a big change at all. Last year also he played Dubai
 

Towser83

G.O.A.T.
While skipping 3 masters and a slam, sounds legit.
He actually skipped 5 masters (MC, Rome, Madrid, Cinci and Paris) but I don't think that means you can't be the best player - Nadal has often skipped events, so has Djokovic. Over the past year it's been really close between Nadal and Federer, Nadal deserves his ranking on account of earning more points, but who's been the better player is debateable, both have a solid claim. I don't think a lot has actually changed with Federer winning the AO as he was defending it anyway, only difference is Nadal didn't do so well this time. I'd like to see Federer get number one at some point this year seeing as I feel he deserves it just as Nadal deserved it, but if Nadal keeps doing well, it won't be easy.
 

titoelcolombiano

Hall of Fame
This thread is hillarious. Yes, Nadal will play Acapulco, yes, Nadal will defend most, if not all of his clay points.

The actual challenge for Nadal in terms of retaining number 1 in the short term is defending his Miami points. As long as he is healthy the clay season will be business as usual.

Once RG is over, he has little to defend at Wimby, Cincy & Canada but his next challenge will come when the US Open rolls around.

It will be an interesting season as the pressure will ebb back and forward between Rafa & Fed to defend points.
 

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
Playing Dubai is probably Fed's best chance to get to #1. If he cares about it at all and his body his holding up, he surely should do it.

The other possibility would be defending the Sunshine Double, or at least defend one, reach the latter stages of the other, and hope that Nadal also drops some serious points on the clay. It's quite an ask, unless Rafa gets injured.

The other possibility may be winning both Wimbledon & US Open, which won't be easier ...

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk
 

yokied

Hall of Fame
I think Fed will be skip Dubai. He actually does more damage to Nadal by leaving Nadal out in front for a while longer. Think about it.

Nadal thinks the longer he clings to the ranking the better, and the longer he keeps Fed out the more likely Fed's body is to collapse. So he does everything he can to defend it. Meanwhile, Fed and everyone else knows Fed is more likely to defend his points this year than Nadal is to defend his. Fed forcing Nadal to play extra tournaments to stay in front is a good way to wear Nadal down and cut his season short. The net result is Fed is even older when he hits #1, making an even more ridiculous record on the way with minimal effort and maximising damage to Nadal both this season and hopefully for years to come.
 

Firstservingman

Talk Tennis Guru
I think Fed will be skip Dubai. He actually does more damage to Nadal by leaving Nadal out in front for a while longer. Think about it.

Nadal thinks the longer he clings to the ranking the better, and the longer he keeps Fed out the more likely Fed's body is to collapse. So he does everything he can to defend it. Meanwhile, Fed and everyone else knows Fed is more likely to defend his points this year than Nadal is to defend his. Fed forcing Nadal to play extra tournaments to stay in front is a good way to wear Nadal down and cut his season short. The net result is Fed is even older when he hits #1, making an even more ridiculous record on the way with minimal effort and maximising damage to Nadal both this season and hopefully for years to come.
Could be something to this.

But it's a gamble.
 

yokied

Hall of Fame
To be clear, I estimate that Nadal is more likely to drop points (through injury, poor form, facing stronger draws, overplaying, whatever) defending #1 than Roger is to pick up more this season by playing more and chasing #1. Roger did lose points over US hardcourt season in 17 due to overplaying. So he probably views 18 as a season with fewer tournaments with a chance to end with more points by winning one or both Wimbledon and USO. In blunt tennis terms, if Roger keeps playing better than Nadal, that will eventually bear itself out in the rankings. I doubt Nadal's body can stand up to another year of ranking chasing.

And if it goes the way I expect it will, then Roger gets YE#1 at 37 without even chasing it, which is possibly the most utterly ridiculous record of them all and would return some of the kind of career-changing psychological damage back to Nadal.
 

moonballs

Hall of Fame
Playing Dubai is probably Fed's best chance to get to #1. If he cares about it at all and his body his holding up, he surely should do it.

The other possibility would be defending the Sunshine Double, or at least defend one, reach the latter stages of the other, and hope that Nadal also drops some serious points on the clay. It's quite an ask, unless Rafa gets injured.

The other possibility may be winning both Wimbledon & US Open, which won't be easier ...

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk
I prefer the third option.
 

jimjam

Professional
I think Fed will be skip Dubai. He actually does more damage to Nadal by leaving Nadal out in front for a while longer. Think about it.

Nadal thinks the longer he clings to the ranking the better, and the longer he keeps Fed out the more likely Fed's body is to collapse. So he does everything he can to defend it. Meanwhile, Fed and everyone else knows Fed is more likely to defend his points this year than Nadal is to defend his. Fed forcing Nadal to play extra tournaments to stay in front is a good way to wear Nadal down and cut his season short. The net result is Fed is even older when he hits #1, making an even more ridiculous record on the way with minimal effort and maximising damage to Nadal both this season and hopefully for years to come.
Why take the risk tho. Play a few matches in Dubai and guarantee number 1 at age 36 with almost no effort.

Then you can chill and play a light schedule for 12 months to see if you can get number 1 at 37/38 with no pressure.

Imagine if he gets this close and misses out because he took it for granted. Would be kinda annoying.
 

Zhilady

Professional
This thread is hillarious. Yes, Nadal will play Acapulco, yes, Nadal will defend most, if not all of his clay points.

The actual challenge for Nadal in terms of retaining number 1 in the short term is defending his Miami points. As long as he is healthy the clay season will be business as usual.
So you're basically saying the actual challenge for Nadal is not in keeping the 4500+ point advantage he has over Federer during the clay season but in keeping the 400 point disadvantage he has against Federer at Miami, a tournament Federer may not even play?
 

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
No announcement yet about Dubai afaict. Who knows, but I guess that means he isn't sure, which means he probably won't play.

Unless Fed defends all or most of his IW/Miami points, Nadal won't need to repeat last year's clay success. Anything can happen, but I won't hold my breath for him dropping huge amounts of points on clay given the state of the tour.

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titoelcolombiano

Hall of Fame
So you're basically saying the actual challenge for Nadal is not in keeping the 4500+ point advantage he has over Federer during the clay season but in keeping the 400 point disadvantage he has against Federer at Miami, a tournament Federer may not even play?
Yes. There is no advantage for Rafa going into the clay season. Fed has no points to defend, so one slip up from Rafa and Fed could take number 1 by default.

What I meant by Miami is that Rafa has to defend a final. He is a great hard court player but is definately more vulnerable to the field on the surface. A final is by no means guaranteed and if he doesn't defend those points, he is very vulnerable. If he loses # 1 before the clay season, then the pressure mounts even more.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
While skipping 3 masters and a slam, sounds legit.
Why don't you look at it like this: he is 155 points from being ranked #1 while playing a very reduced schedule, while your guy has been busting his ass all 2017 and is clinging onto #1 with the skin of his teeth. If this doesn't prove Roger's greatness, nothin' will. He plays when he feels like it and will still (almost certainly) get back to #1 within the next few months.
 

Firstservingman

Talk Tennis Guru
Yes. There is no advantage for Rafa going into the clay season. Fed has no points to defend, so one slip up from Rafa and Fed could take number 1 by default.

What I meant by Miami is that Rafa has to defend a final. He is a great hard court player but is definately more vulnerable to the field on the surface. A final is by no means guaranteed and if he doesn't defend those points, he is very vulnerable. If he loses # 1 before the clay season, then the pressure mounts even more.
This is quite correct. Rafa can't gain much on clay but can lose a great deal.
Federer's challenge is to defend as much of the IW/Miami double as he can. Nadal's challenge is to defend the Miami final, plus an outstanding clay season.
 

titoelcolombiano

Hall of Fame
This is quite correct. Rafa can't gain much on clay but can lose a great deal.
Federer's challenge is to defend as much of the IW/Miami double as he can. Nadal's challenge is to defend the Miami final, plus an outstanding clay season.
It's going to be an exciting season. The pressure on both will ebb and flow and different stages.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
Why don't you look at it like this: he is 155 points from being ranked #1 while playing a very reduced schedule, while your guy has been busting his ass all 2017 and is clinging onto #1 with the skin of his teeth. If this doesn't prove Roger's greatness, nothin' will. He plays when he feels like it and will still (almost certainly) get back to #1 within the next few months.
I look at it like he just won the AO and Nadal lost in the quarters. Don't try so hard to sound smooth, he will get there deservedly, but again, Nadal had the better year last yr.
 
D

Deleted member 756486

Guest
I look at it like he just won the AO and Nadal lost in the quarters. Don't try so hard to sound smooth, he will get there deservedly, but again, Nadal had the better year last yr.
Fed was 4-0 against Nadal last year
Nadal won 6 titles while Fed won 7

It’s clear who had the better year.
 

roysid

Hall of Fame
Fed was 4-0 against Nadal last year
Nadal won 6 titles while Fed won 7

It’s clear who had the better year.
Who cares about that. Both sides will have arguments on this.

What matters is official ranking. Come to think of it. Federer was so close to get that #1.

- Finals or win in ATP Finals at London, he is #1 today.
- Better result in one of Montreal/Cincy/US Open, he is #1 today.

Now its in his hands. Play Dubai and take it. Nadal will likely drop from Acapulco so great chance to make history and become ATP #1 at the age of 36.5 years
 

SystemicAnomaly

Talk Tennis Guru
@stringertom
I'll be posting updates here whenever Federer/Nadal complete a match! So stay tuned.

Prior to the AO final 2018 Federer stands at 8805 points. He is 955 points behind Nadal on 9760 points.
Should we win the AO final, he will move to 9605 points, 155 behind Nadal.

All assuming Fed wins the AO:

Both are not scheduled to play any tournaments until Acapulco/Dubai, which occurs on the week ending March 4.
Federer is unlikely to play Dubai as he is scheduled to play Match for Africa 5 on 5 March - so he will drop his 45 points on the week ending March 4 and end up on 9560 points.
Nadal is still scheduled to play Acapulco, and is defending 300 points. If he withdraws he will end the week on 9460, and lose the No 1 ranking. Nadal must attain at least 100 points from the Acapulco week - a SF appearance is required. If Federer does end up playing Dubai though then a tournament win in Dubai would guarantee the No 1 ranking for Federer, as Federer can gain 455 and Nadal can only gain 200, easily making up the 155 deficit.

Looking slightly further ahead, Federer defends 2000 over Indian Wells-Miami, whilst Nadal defends 690. So if Nadal has the No 1 ranking by the end of Acapulco he will almost certainly hold it til the end of Miami. However Nadal defends 4680 during the clay season so this is where Federer is most likely to gain it next following Acapulco/Dubai, as Federer defends 0.

Looking further ahead still, Federer defends 2500 during the grass season whilst Nadal defends 180. If Federer can rack up good points at W and Nadal fails again, then he almost certainly will gain it during the USO phase, if he hasn't already done so by then - from Montreal --> USO Federer defends 960 whilst Nadal defends 2270.


If we just look at 2018 as a whole Federer will move to 1640 ahead of Nadal in the 2018 Race to London if he wins today - at the same time last year he was only 755 points ahead as Nadal had a Brisbane QF and AO final. Things could potentially be looking up for YE No 1, although it is still very early days.
QUESTION: Is there some sort of certification or extreme vetting process for those who are permitted to initiate *OFFICIAL* threads? :rolleyes:
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
@stringertom


QUESTION: Is there some sort of certification or extreme vetting process for those who are permitted to initiate *OFFICIAL* threads? :rolleyes:
You should ask @vanioMan , the OP of a very large official tribute thread. My official teenage talent thread is dwarfed by this mA.S.Sive undertaking, proving that Technicolor Pachyderms are quite more popular than talented teenage tennis players.
 

Subway Tennis

Hall of Fame
I'll be posting updates here whenever Federer/Nadal complete a match! So stay tuned.

Prior to the AO final 2018 Federer stands at 8805 points. He is 955 points behind Nadal on 9760 points.
Should we win the AO final, he will move to 9605 points, 155 behind Nadal.

All assuming Fed wins the AO:

Both are not scheduled to play any tournaments until Acapulco/Dubai, which occurs on the week ending March 4.
Federer is unlikely to play Dubai as he is scheduled to play Match for Africa 5 on 5 March - so he will drop his 45 points on the week ending March 4 and end up on 9560 points.
Nadal is still scheduled to play Acapulco, and is defending 300 points. If he withdraws he will end the week on 9460, and lose the No 1 ranking. Nadal must attain at least 100 points from the Acapulco week - a SF appearance is required. If Federer does end up playing Dubai though then a tournament win in Dubai would guarantee the No 1 ranking for Federer, as Federer can gain 455 and Nadal can only gain 200, easily making up the 155 deficit.

Looking slightly further ahead, Federer defends 2000 over Indian Wells-Miami, whilst Nadal defends 690. So if Nadal has the No 1 ranking by the end of Acapulco he will almost certainly hold it til the end of Miami. However Nadal defends 4680 during the clay season so this is where Federer is most likely to gain it next following Acapulco/Dubai, as Federer defends 0.

Looking further ahead still, Federer defends 2500 during the grass season whilst Nadal defends 180. If Federer can rack up good points at W and Nadal fails again, then he almost certainly will gain it during the USO phase, if he hasn't already done so by then - from Montreal --> USO Federer defends 960 whilst Nadal defends 2270.


If we just look at 2018 as a whole Federer will move to 1640 ahead of Nadal in the 2018 Race to London if he wins today - at the same time last year he was only 755 points ahead as Nadal had a Brisbane QF and AO final. Things could potentially be looking up for YE No 1, although it is still very early days.
*subscribed* Good luck to both players. It looks like it could be Federer's year in 2018.

Maybe he'll take a wildcard into Rotterdam or something. :D

I get the feeling like the #1 ranking is going to go back and forth - back and forth forever!


))<>(( Forever! :D
:eek:
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
Yes. There is no advantage for Rafa going into the clay season. Fed has no points to defend, so one slip up from Rafa and Fed could take number 1 by default.

What I meant by Miami is that Rafa has to defend a final. He is a great hard court player but is definately more vulnerable to the field on the surface. A final is by no means guaranteed and if he doesn't defend those points, he is very vulnerable. If he loses # 1 before the clay season, then the pressure mounts even more.
If Fed plays Dubai he'll probably become #1 because he lost early to Donskoy last year and Rafa is defending runner-up points at Acapulco.
 

titoelcolombiano

Hall of Fame
If Fed plays Dubai he'll probably become #1 because he lost early to Donskoy last year and Rafa is defending runner-up points at Acapulco.
True - he has little to defend and even if Rafa wins the title Fed has more potential points to gain - it depends what Fed's priorities are.
 

Feather

Legend
Yeah, the one that also won 2 slams but played a full season. Stop arguing against the ranking system, when Fed is still ahead long after he starts losing points, you won't be complaining.
I am with you here. There is no stuff like deserving and undeserving number one. Rafa is the deserving number one and he deserves every bit of it. I am fine with the ranking system.
 

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
I like him playing Rotterdam actually. (OK, we might know better with hindsight.) It's got a challenging field, but I think that actually keeps him motivated in such events. Obviously it makes sense for him geographically.

And it's kind of nice that he can get it with a SF. 3 wins ought to be quite doable if he's recovered from AO. And if he makes it to the semis, he'll know that he has the #1 ranking and could well be playing freely after that, going on and winning the title.

If he does, and Nadal has no chance of getting it back at Acapulco, could that influence his decision on whether to play there? On the other hand, if Nadal wins Acapulco, he can get back to #1 at IW. But would he care enough? Chances are good that he'll be back to #1 after Miami.
 
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