It’s easily a top 10 upset in history by betting odds, I think Carlitos losing in straight sets was the biggest shocker. I’m not sure there was even an option of betting Carlos to “win at least one set” since there isn’t for such big favorites sometimes. If there were, it would be at -50,000, which is an insane number; Botic to win in straight sets was at like +20,000. Now, I do believe books overvalued him knowing that Carlos has the propensity to mess around and lose sets to players he should not lose sets to. Additionally, he did not look all that great in his previous match, certainly not like a -10,000 favorite.
Nadal was the biggest favorite ever to lose I believe against Darcis. At least Rosol had a big game—Darcis presumably had nothing to hurt Rafiro, and Rafito was playing incredibly well from the baseline. Nadal was a -50,000 to win at some books. Darcis winning in straights would be like +100,000 loool.
Nadal was invincible at RG and had beaten up Soderling in Rome, but Soderling was also playing well on clay and it was a 4th round match and the further you go in tournaments, the underdogs don’t become as big of underdogs. Nadal was -10,000 I think.
Federer hadn‘t been playing well and Stak had a game for grass. Upsets are more likely on grass because you can win sets while not being an overall better player much more easily than you can on hard or especially clay. Still I think Federer was -10,000.
Serena losing to Vinci was a big upset, but a best of 3 match is usually not going to have such extreme odds because it’s just so much easier to win two sets than it is to win three sets against someone who is obviously better than you are. The only exception is when a top player is playing a young qualifier who hasn't played tour level matches. Serena was a -2000 favorite but in some places she was a -1100 or -1200 favorite.
Hewitt vs. Ivo was a shocker since Ivo hadn’t had many matches played on tour, hadn’t played in 2003 until grass season and though you could see the Ivo serve, it wasn’t as good yet as players had gotten into his serve games at Queen’s. Hewitt wasn’t playing very well going into the match. I think Hewitt was a -10,000 favorite.
Djoko vs Istomin was a shocker. Djoko was a -8,000 favorite. Ching was a SF so the odds aren’t going to be -10,000.