Opelka to win Wimbledon 2019?

Will Opelka lose a set at WB 2019?

  • No

    Votes: 7 25.9%
  • No and neither his Service Game

    Votes: 22 81.5%

  • Total voters
    27
#1
He already won a Junior Wimbledon, which shows he can actually win return games on Grass, and his serve at this age is incredible, he could in some years have like 110 aces average per match.

If he plays Djokovic, and forces 3-5 TB, he could get lucky, and the same with Fed and Nadal.


Opelka is the favourite, no?
 
#3
Unfortunately, history is littered with Junior Wimbledon Champions who failed to make any impression at the main event. He has yet to qualify for the main draw at Wimbledon. Let's see how he does when he gets there first!
Nadal didnt win any Junior Grand Slam, so I see what you mean, I just beliebe that for a servebot it is a different case. Servebots are like Goalkeepers in Football, they play very good in their 30's and for some their peak level, Ivanesevic, Isner are good examples.
 
#4
I definitely think he will make it deep at Wimbledon, at least fourth round or further, but he doesn't yet have the experience required to hold his nerve in the deeper rounds (winning a slam at atp level is more than just good serving!).
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
#8
Nadal didnt win any Junior Grand Slam, so I see what you mean, I just beliebe that for a servebot it is a different case. Servebots are like Goalkeepers in Football, they play very good in their 30's and for some their peak level, Ivanesevic, Isner are good examples.
Servebots tend to struggle against great returners and there are are many at Wimbledon eg. Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Nishikori. The last servebot player to win Wimbledon was Ivanisevic in 2001 and it took him many attempts including 4 finals. He will find that he cannot rely solely on his serve. He must develop a great ground game as well.
 
#9
Servebots tend to struggle against great returners and there are are many at Wimbledon eg. Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Nishikori. The last servebot player to win Wimbledon was Ivanisevic in 2001 and it took him many attempts including 4 finals. He will find that he cannot rely solely on his serve. He must develop a great ground game as well.
If Isner had the mentality I believe he could have won WB. Imagine him with his MO 2018 level, did you watch that match against Del Potro, simply unbelieveable stuff.
 
#10
Nadal didnt win any Junior Grand Slam, so I see what you mean, I just beliebe that for a servebot it is a different case. Servebots are like Goalkeepers in Football, they play very good in their 30's and for some their peak level, Ivanesevic, Isner are good examples.
Goran won Wimbledon at 29 and barely played afterwards. Not exactly 30s. True about Isner and Karlovic tho. But still, I'm not sure you can make an argument that because servebots sometimes play older they are better then.
 
#11
Bass Pro Winsner got to the semi finals last year and Smiley is basically infinity times better than Bass Pro Winsner

So at least a 5 peat at SW19 to Smiley
 
#12
Goran won Wimbledon at 29 and barely played afterwards. Not exactly 30s. But still, I'm not sure you can make an argument that because servebots sometimes play older they are better then.
I think it holds up pretty good. One of the reasons Federer won most Grand Slam between 21-36 years, is because one of his main weapons are serve.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
#13
If Isner had the mentality I believe he could have won WB. Imagine him with his MO 2018 level, did you watch that match against Del Potro, simply unbelieveable stuff.
The problem with Isner is that he rarely had an easy time of it even with his all-powerful serve. His matches often go the distance and each set usually ends in tie-breaks because his returning and ground game has not kept pace with his serve. He has improved in this regard in recent years but he's getting older and too often loses out in the tie-breaks these days. He is a classic example of a servebot who has been held in check by great returners.
 
#14
The problem with Isner is that he rarely had an easy time of it even with his all-powerful serve. His matches often go the distance and each set usually ends in tie-breaks because his returning and ground game has not kept pace with his serve. He has improved in this regard in recent years but he's getting older and too often loses out in the tie-breaks these days. He is a classic example of a servebot who has been held in check by great returners.
Yeah when he has off days in return, it's just tiebreaks, and that can be random. I don't get how Isner lost his serve twice in a 10-game set at WB 2018, had he won the 4th set, he could have given Djokovic trouble. Djokovic is a great returner, but I'm not sure how easy it would be for him to return Isner's serve more than Isner aces on Grass in a WB Final.
 
#15
A thread about Opelka has yet to attract any comments about how he should have played basketball.

If that miracle can occur on TW, then Opelka most certainly can win Wimbledon.

In any case, great to see tennis has a ready made Isner heir. Tennis would be boring if everyone was six foot one with a djokovic type of game.
 
#24
I can see there being lots and lots of threads about Opelka in a few years becuse he’s probably going to be a problem for everyone if he stays healthy. I don’t think people are going to like seeing his game be very successful and calls for rules changes will be rampant here and other places.
 
#28
Servebots tend to struggle against great returners and there are are many at Wimbledon eg. Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Nishikori. The last servebot player to win Wimbledon was Ivanisevic in 2001 and it took him many attempts including 4 finals. He will find that he cannot rely solely on his serve. He must develop a great ground game as well.
You're forgetting that pretty much everyone is a servebot as per @bjk 's definition of 75 % points won on first serves and 64 % first serves in:
https://www.atptour.com/en/stats/1st-serve-points-won/all/grass/all/
 
#29
I'd say let him get into double digits in terms of percentage of return games won, before we proclaim him the favorite anywhere
He's at 9, 9 and 7 (2019) percent return games won in the last 3 years in his ATP matches. And his TB record is 19-20, so it's not like he's winning every single TB either.

All that said, nice troll thread OP ;-)
 
#35
My thread dedicated to finding out whose a servebot.

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/whose-a-servebot.631228/

Anyone above 8 on this scale is a servebot, below 8 is not a servebot. 8 is borderline.

Judging a players servebottishness purely by their % games won is totally inaccurate and misleading, Nadal and Djokovic both hold at a high rate.
great list you have there - based on stats or just pure eye test/how must you deem they rely on their serve?
 
#43
great list you have there - based on stats or just pure eye test/how must you deem they rely on their serve?
Both.

Statistically how many service games are they winning, compared to how many returns games are they winning? For example Fedr and Roddick hold at about 90%. but Roddick wins less return games. So Roddick is higher on the servebot scale. Raonic wins even less return games than Roddick while having a similar hold %, so hes higher up.

You also have to watch them to observe how many free points their serve gets. Roddicks obviously gets him more free points than Fedrs, but they hold at a similar %. Again, indicating Roddick is more dependant on his serve to get through service games.

You also have to consider different players all round game. Like Sampras and Becker have better serves than Shapo, but their all round games are clearly better as well. So they rank the same on the servebot scale as Shapo, rather than higher.

Theres different intepretations, you could arguably put Fedr down to 5, Kyrgios up to 9, Mcenroe down to 4 etc. But my scale is pretty accurate :)
 
#45
at this point i don't see him improving on Isner's best W run. (not quite sure what that is, i'm too lazy to look it up :)) and then
there's always the chance he'll play Karlovic in the first round and lose... :p
 
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