There has been long and probably neverending discusions about "What is A's peak/prime". Some (looking at you @Lew ) even claím that Federer is in his peak at 35. However this thread should not be about (or at least not only) Federer, I have higher ambitions. I would like to discuss and idealy decide what is the overall peak/prime age for tennis player. I of course know there will be exception, however is there any age we can agree on?
For start I did some research. Here are 15 best players of Open era (or better said 15 out of 20 best, because for the 5 (Laver, Rosewall, Ashe, Newcombe and Nastase) the OE started "too late" as they were already quiet old and would not be fair to use them for age comparison) as per "GOAT ranking" by UTS with their set winning percentage at each season. On the left is the age they end the season at (so 19 means the player turned 19 in that season, ie played some matches as 18 yo and some as 19 yo).
Red is the best season the player ever played by this metric, yellow 5 other best ones (in case of Fed and Nadal 6, because one of their best is this year, which is not completed yet and could change. For the same reason I choose as best seasons only completed ones).
On the right you can se average set winning percentage for all players of that age.
Based on this table I would split "normal" tennis career into 6 parts.
15-18 - "Junior age" - many players dont even play and when they do, the dont have the best results.
19-20 - early prime - most of the truly great players already started to be one of the best in the world. Some even scored their best season already but in general there is still room to improvement. Set winning % is about 70%.
21-26 - peak age - 11 out of 15 players have their best seasons in this period and majority of their peak seasons is also here. Average winning % is also highest, every season high above 70%.
27-30 - late prime - most players have their best behind them but still can play some great tennis. Set percentage and therefore playing level similar to early prime (about 70%).
31-35 - post prime - most players are not the players they were before however still are able to produce solid, about the end of top 10 resulds. Winning percentage drops to 60s. Many players retire at this age.
36+ - retirement age - most players are at this age already retired. The ones who are not have problem being consistent and lose about as often as they win (W% about 50s).
Some fun facts: Out of the 16 peak seasons any player posted aged 28 or more 13 were in one of the two "Weak eras" - 1998-2003 (Sampras 1, Agassi 3) or 2014+ (Murray and Djokovic 2 including their best one, Nadal 2, Federer 3). Only exception when such an old player had peak season in strong(er) era is Connors's and Vilas's 1982 and Lendl's 1989.
Best season by this metric is clearly McEnroes 1984 (as 25 yo, 89,5 %), followed by Federers 2005 (24 yo, 86,2 %), Connors 1976 (24 yo, 85,5 %), Borgs 1979 (23 yo, 85,4 %) and Lendls 1982 (22 yo, 85,4).
In 1982 5 players have their peak season - Vilas, Connors, McEnroe, Wilander and Lendl.
In 1988 4 players have their peak season - Vilas, Edberg, Becker and Lendl. In OE there is no other season with more than three such players.
In all of his 6 peak seasons Lendl has always at least 2 other ATGs in their peak seasons (Borg, Vilas, Connors, McEnroe 3x, Wilander 3x, Edberg 3x, Becker 3x). Next "best" (or least lucky if you want) at this regard was Connors with 4 such a seasons out of 7 (his sixth and seventh best seasons are both 79,3% so he has 7 peak seasons).
The "most lucky" ATG in this regard is Sampras. 4 out of his 6 peak year did not overlap with any other ATG peak season and the other two with just one (Agassi 2x).
For start I did some research. Here are 15 best players of Open era (or better said 15 out of 20 best, because for the 5 (Laver, Rosewall, Ashe, Newcombe and Nastase) the OE started "too late" as they were already quiet old and would not be fair to use them for age comparison) as per "GOAT ranking" by UTS with their set winning percentage at each season. On the left is the age they end the season at (so 19 means the player turned 19 in that season, ie played some matches as 18 yo and some as 19 yo).
Red is the best season the player ever played by this metric, yellow 5 other best ones (in case of Fed and Nadal 6, because one of their best is this year, which is not completed yet and could change. For the same reason I choose as best seasons only completed ones).
On the right you can se average set winning percentage for all players of that age.
Based on this table I would split "normal" tennis career into 6 parts.
15-18 - "Junior age" - many players dont even play and when they do, the dont have the best results.
19-20 - early prime - most of the truly great players already started to be one of the best in the world. Some even scored their best season already but in general there is still room to improvement. Set winning % is about 70%.
21-26 - peak age - 11 out of 15 players have their best seasons in this period and majority of their peak seasons is also here. Average winning % is also highest, every season high above 70%.
27-30 - late prime - most players have their best behind them but still can play some great tennis. Set percentage and therefore playing level similar to early prime (about 70%).
31-35 - post prime - most players are not the players they were before however still are able to produce solid, about the end of top 10 resulds. Winning percentage drops to 60s. Many players retire at this age.
36+ - retirement age - most players are at this age already retired. The ones who are not have problem being consistent and lose about as often as they win (W% about 50s).
Some fun facts: Out of the 16 peak seasons any player posted aged 28 or more 13 were in one of the two "Weak eras" - 1998-2003 (Sampras 1, Agassi 3) or 2014+ (Murray and Djokovic 2 including their best one, Nadal 2, Federer 3). Only exception when such an old player had peak season in strong(er) era is Connors's and Vilas's 1982 and Lendl's 1989.
Best season by this metric is clearly McEnroes 1984 (as 25 yo, 89,5 %), followed by Federers 2005 (24 yo, 86,2 %), Connors 1976 (24 yo, 85,5 %), Borgs 1979 (23 yo, 85,4 %) and Lendls 1982 (22 yo, 85,4).
In 1982 5 players have their peak season - Vilas, Connors, McEnroe, Wilander and Lendl.
In 1988 4 players have their peak season - Vilas, Edberg, Becker and Lendl. In OE there is no other season with more than three such players.
In all of his 6 peak seasons Lendl has always at least 2 other ATGs in their peak seasons (Borg, Vilas, Connors, McEnroe 3x, Wilander 3x, Edberg 3x, Becker 3x). Next "best" (or least lucky if you want) at this regard was Connors with 4 such a seasons out of 7 (his sixth and seventh best seasons are both 79,3% so he has 7 peak seasons).
The "most lucky" ATG in this regard is Sampras. 4 out of his 6 peak year did not overlap with any other ATG peak season and the other two with just one (Agassi 2x).
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I did a somewhat more broad job a few years back, updating it ever year... Average age of mens grand slam champions in the open era.
