Overreacting to De Minaur is a mistake

[Kralingen]

Don’t do it.

De Minaur is the most weaponless player to ever make the top 20. He had almost no serve and was unable to put any power into his shots. Djokovic was forced into a defensive position maybe 3 times the entire match, and was able to stay in first gear, hitting essentially static shots, the entire time. It was as close to a practice session as you will ever see in a Grand Slam 4th round. Djokovic’s movement was not tested at ALL.

Federer beat Goffin 6-2, 6-2, 6-0 before failing heavily at USO 19. Djokovic himself beat Ramos Vinolas 6-2 6-2 6-3 at AO 18 before losing to Chung. Don’t overreact to matches against horribly overmatched opponents.

Here’s what happened the past two matches before this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616082298625216518

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616781227897520130

These quotes and the eye test from Dimitrov and Couacaud have shown me the following. If you stretch Djokovic and make him work defensively, the hamstring gets aggravated. It may be fine going into the match, but it worsens when you hit the ball hard and move him around.

Whatever you think of Rublev, know that he hits much harder and applies much more forward pressure than De Minaur ever could. He has a great serve out wide and can change direction on the ball with pace. He demolishes FHs. Tsitsipas does all of this even better than Rublev does and has an elite serve.

Djokovic is not out of the woods yet. I think the De Minaur match was a red herring and that his defensive issues will be exposed heavily in the matches to come.

 

[Lleytonstation]

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I agree. I personally think that match was more like a practice match for Novak. It was far to easy and doesn’t indicate his true level.

Rublev is at least a couple of levels up on De Minaur. I personally see Rublev the favourite because he’s more battle tested, very good form and better physical shape.

He will test novaks leg a lot more and force him to play more on the BH defensive side.

I hope Novak can stay competitive in the longer rallies with the Russian. Hopefully a fun match.

I see rublev the favourite still based on current form and physical condition.

 

[mike danny]

Ok, but considering the fact that he only has to peak for one match, the final, I'd say he'll be more than fine. He couldn't have asked for better QF and SF opponents.

 

[The_Order]

Oh no... not more about his "injury" ...

I think everybody is fully aware that Rublev is a much more dangerous opponent than De Minaur...

Also, everybody is fully aware that Djokovic reset Rublev to factory settings last time they played...

What people may not realise is that Rublev is a perennial slam quarter finalist having made it to that stage 6 times in his career...

Of those 6 times, he lost every time in straights apart from losing in 5 to a 33 year old Cilic at last year's RG of all places...

Rublev will do well to win a set. I think he'll make 2 sets competitive and get blown away in the other.

 

[Pass750]

Doth protest too much.

 

[Kralingen]

Dimitrov spreading Djokovic out with powerful shots is what triggered the hamstring injury last time.

I fully expect it to happen again tonight.

 

[weakera]

De Minaur is the most weaponless player to ever make the top 20. He had almost no serve and was unable to put any power into his shots. Djokovic was forced into a defensive position maybe 3 times the entire match, and was able to stay in first gear, hitting essentially static shots, the entire time. It was as close to a practice session as you will ever see in a Grand Slam 4th round. Djokovic’s movement was not tested at ALL.

Wait a minute. But I was told THE DEMON was the worst possible matchup for Djokovic, the ultimate grinder who always makes you work hard, a nightmare fourth round draw, by many Djokovic fans repeatedly? How can we reconcile this!?

 

[Ombelibable]

I agree. I personally think that match was more like a practice match for Novak. It was far to easy and doesn’t indicate his true level.

Rublev is at least a couple of levels up on De Minaur. I personally see Rublev the favourite because he’s more battle tested, very good form and better physical shape.

He will test novaks leg a lot more and force him to play more on the BH defensive side.

I hope Novak can stay competitive in the longer rallies with the Russian. Hopefully a fun match.

I see rublev the favourite still based on current form and physical condition.

You're trying so hard to counter-jinx.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Ok, but considering the fact that he only has to peak for one match, the final, I'd say he'll be more than fine. He couldn't have asked for better QF and SF opponents.

Underestimating Rublev is a mistake. I think that’s the OP message. A lot of people are writing him off but he’s been playing very well this tournament. He’s in better shape physically and has been tested.

He will definitely move Djokovic around more and test his leg and hamstring injury. Rublev is capable of big hitting on both wings that the aussi didn’t have.

 

[Deleted member 629564]

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

You're trying so hard to counter-jinx.

It’s actually a prediction. Even though I’m a big Novak fan I don’t see him winning this tournament or getting to the final.

Other players in better form and physical condition in my opinion. Of course I might be wrong but it’s how I see it.

 

[ojo rojo]

I personally see Rublev the favourite

 

[3loudboys]

Novak in straights - he has the precision to limit Rublev's ability to get on the fh. And he can neutalise the bombs when they do arrive.

He's also been taking the ball early and hitting big himself his year, the fh dtl has been excellent - will pay dividends against Rublev's weaker bh.

 

[Midaso240]

On the Tsitsipas point, don't take it as a given that he beats Khachanov. Karen will be very, very fresh. He only had 2.5 sets yesterday, and the match before that he had 2 bagel sets. He only played 5 2 set matches before the AO, if he loses in this tournament it's not going to be by being outlasted...

 

[The Fedfather]

I agree that Djokovic's level in the de Minaur match isn't the be all. However, as far as a tough challenge goes, Rublev is more likely to have a mental breakdown than he is to put pressure on Djokovic and aggravate anything. What good is the hitting harder going to do if Rublev's shots tend to go a mile long when he's stressed? And what are the chances that he's not going to be stressed playing against Djokovic tomorrow? Slim. Even if Novak just serves well, he'll probably hold fairly easily, and once the scoreboard pressure hits, I wouldn't bet against Rublev imploding.

 

[Jonesy]

No doubt OP, but Novak need to try his best, because Rublev is a tough opponent.

 

[duaneeo]

Djokovic fans if he wins the AO: Even with an injury, he's simply too good!
Djokovic fans if he loses: See, I told you he was injured!

 

[TennisManiac]

Imo... De Minaur looks like a strong 5.0 player. Nothing more. I honestly can't even believe he's in the top 100.

 

[mike danny]

Underestimating Rublev is a mistake. I think that’s the OP message. A lot of people are writing him off but he’s been playing very well this tournament. He’s in better shape physically and has been tested.

He will definitely move Djokovic around more and test his leg and hamstring injury. Rublev is capable of big hitting on both wings that the aussi didn’t have.

Rublev is the perennial QF man, I seriously doubt the match will be close.

 

[Deleted member 758560]

Djokovic fans if he wins the AO: Even with an injury, he's simply too good!
Djokovic fans if he loses: See, I told you he was injured!

same game can be played with anyone, e.g. with fed fans..
fed loses oh hes too old or mono
fed wins oh i told ya hes goat indeed

 

[McGradey]

I think Rublev’s definitely got the ground game to stretch Djokovic, but I expect that to be more than neutralised by Djokovic feasting on Rublev’s serve, as well as dictating with aggressive hitting, changes of direction and net approaches.

I think Djokovic will plan to starve Rublev of rhythm and limit his forehands, and that will be all she wrote in 4 sets, there might be a flare-up in the hamstring or a walkabout set from Djoko.

 

[duaneeo]

same game can be played with anyone, e.g. with fed fans..

Perhaps, but I'm talking Nole fans and the current tournament...not one 15 years ago.

 

[jl809]

OP makes an interesting point because the Big 3 all have recent form for demolishing opponents whilst injured, and the simple reason is they literally are that good at tennis (and their opponents sucked):

1. Federer def Kohlschreiber 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 in the 4th round of the US Open 2017 whilst carrying a back injury. He hit c. 40 winners to 20 UEs on a mid pace court with 11 aces. He would lose the next round to DelPo.
   
   
2. Djokovic def Kudla 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in the 4th round of the US Open 2019, whilst carrying a shoulder injury. Asked about it afterwards he said: "I managed to play almost pain free, that's a big improvement from my last match... I am able to play". He would retire from the next match losing vs Stan as it flared up again.
   
   
3. Nadal thrashed Gasquet 6-0, 6-1, 7-5 in the 3rd round of the US Open 2022 with a torn ab. He made no mention of this ab throughout the US Open. He would lose in the next round to Tiafoe.

Having said that, outside of that one set against the qualifier, I don't think that 2023 Djoker's ever been as bothered in terms of form by the hamstring injury anything like how Fed was impacted by the back at USO 17 (back to back 5 setters vs mugs) or Nadal was serving like trash at USO 22 across multiple matches. This is different and less worrying by far. He'll be fine tomorrow and is still house bet to win by a mile

 

[Topspin_80]

I agree. I personally think that match was more like a practice match for Novak. It was far to easy and doesn’t indicate his true level.

Rublev is at least a couple of levels up on De Minaur. I personally see Rublev the favourite because he’s more battle tested, very good form and better physical shape.

He will test novaks leg a lot more and force him to play more on the BH defensive side.

I hope Novak can stay competitive in the longer rallies with the Russian. Hopefully a fun match.

I see rublev the favourite still based on current form and physical condition.

H2H

De Minaur 2

Rublev 1

You have started to sound like a nervous Nellie.

Djokovic in 3.

Djokovic always beats Rublev on HC.

Chill out.

 

[jm1980]

Imo... De Minaur looks like a strong 5.0 player. Nothing more. I honestly can't even believe he's in the top 100.

He just beat Nadal a couple of weeks ago

 

[Bubcay]

Don’t do it.

De Minaur is the most weaponless player to ever make the top 20. He had almost no serve and was unable to put any power into his shots. Djokovic was forced into a defensive position maybe 3 times the entire match, and was able to stay in first gear, hitting essentially static shots, the entire time. It was as close to a practice session as you will ever see in a Grand Slam 4th round. Djokovic’s movement was not tested at ALL.

Federer beat Goffin 6-2, 6-2, 6-0 before failing heavily at USO 19. Djokovic himself beat Ramos Vinolas 6-2 6-2 6-3 at AO 18 before losing to Chung. Don’t overreact to matches against horribly overmatched opponents.

Here’s what happened the past two matches before this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616082298625216518

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616781227897520130

These quotes and the eye test from Dimitrov and Couacaud have shown me the following. If you stretch Djokovic and make him work defensively, the hamstring gets aggravated. It may be fine going into the match, but it worsens when you hit the ball hard and move him around.

Whatever you think of Rublev, know that he hits much harder and applies much more forward pressure than De Minaur ever could. He has a great serve out wide and can change direction on the ball with pace. He demolishes FHs. Tsitsipas does all of this even better than Rublev does and has an elite serve.

Djokovic is not out of the woods yet. I think the De Minaur match was a red herring and that his defensive issues will be exposed heavily in the matches to come.

I do not disagree with you - at all.. I think your analysis is spot on.

 

[MeatTornado]

He just beat Nadal a couple of weeks ago

Because Nadal is a 3.5

But he's a 350.0 when healthy

 

[jl809]

He just beat Nadal a couple of weeks ago

Is that even an achievement atm? Besides Sydney was fast (about 100000x faster than the AO) which is perfect for DeMeaning’s game - he has literally 0 weapons so need all the help from the court speed to make his serve and groundstrokes penetrating. On a slow court he’s exposed as a gross fraud

 

[stosurforehand]

Rublev is the perennial QF man, I seriously doubt the match will be close.

I was about to say he is this eras Kafelnikov, but even Kafelnikov still won 2 majors, which I highly doubt for Rublev, heck I highly doubt even 1. Even with Rublev having the luck of playing in a garbage era dominated by 40 year old men, vs being in the era of peak Sampras, peak Agassi, peak Hewitt, peak Kuerten on clay, and others as Kafelnkikov was.

 

[helterskelter]

Because Nadal is a 3.5

But he would be a 350.0 if healthy, though that is of course not possible

Healthy Bull is a purely hypothetical concept. You mean "merely severely injured Bull," which is as healthy as he ever gets.

 

[jm1980]

De Minaur is the most weaponless player to ever make the top 20. He had almost no serve and was unable to put any power into his shots.

Watching the match and seeing how much more easily Djokovic handled de Minaur's serves compared to the other way around, you'd think Novak was serving a good 15-20 km/h faster than AdM. But:



This just goes to show how there are more important things to the serve than just sheer pace, unless you can bomb them like Karlovic or Isner

Djokovic's returns were often hit pretty deep, and de Minaur's unflinching forward court position, often just a couple of steps behind the baseline, worked against him. Yes, he hit the ball early, but that didn't faze Novak at all

 

[Krish0608]

Djokovic in his PC called Rublev another De Minaur. That’s deeply insulting. If I were Rublev that would fire me up and make me want to play my very best. Let’s see which version of Rublev shows up.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

Hes gonna do almost the same thing to Rublev though probably.. Rublev has nothing to hurt Djoker with.. I think only Korda did really (Rune did but he went out earlier) .. It takes weapons to beat Djokovic. If you don't have huge weapons, you're already fighting an uphill battle. You need big serving, big FH strikes, and some all court play.

The problem is now, Djokovic is going to have ALOT in the tank for the next 3 round because he really wasn't pushed in an earlier rounds

 

[jm1980]

Hes gonna do almost the same thing to Rublev though probably.. Rublev has nothing to hurt Djoker with.. I think only Korda did really (Rune did but he went out earlier) .. It takes weapons to beat Djokovic. If you don't have huge weapons, you're already fighting an uphill battle.

Rublev has a big first serve and a huge forehand, and so does everyone else left in the draw, for that matter

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

Rublev has a big first serve and a huge forehand, and so does everyone else left in the draw, for that matter

Djokovic would have to play pretty bad for anyone left in the tournament to beat him IMO. He isn't going to play bad. Maybe he won't be peaked out, be only needs to be at 6/10 level to win this. Tstsi has a puncher's chance but he'll succumb to mental deficiency as always

 

[Kralingen]

Rublev beat Djokovic 6-2, 6-7, 6-0 this year.

Yes that was on clay, against a Novak who was out of shape and obviously not in form.

But why do we think he’s a total MUG who would be incapable of beating a Djokovic whose defensive movement is clearly hampered?

 

[Rosstour]

Underestimating Rublev is a mistake. I think that’s the OP message. A lot of people are writing him off but he’s been playing very well this tournament. He’s in better shape physically and has been tested.

He will definitely move Djokovic around more and test his leg and hamstring injury. Rublev is capable of big hitting on both wings that the aussi didn’t have.

Fighting off like 6 MPs vs Rune was a totally different look for him. Might have leveled up

 

[jm1980]

Djokovic would have to play pretty bad for anyone left in the tournament to beat him IMO. He isn't going to play bad. Maybe he won't be peaked out, be only needs to be at 6/10 level to win this. Tstsi has a puncher's chance but he'll succumb to mental deficiency as always

That would be more true if this were a healthy Djokovic. But his movement is hampered.

He looked good against AdM because Demon was incapable of moving him around

 

[jm1980]

Fighting off like 6 MPs vs Rune was a totally different look for him. Might have leveled up

It was just 2 MP though, both on Rublev's serve at *15-40 *5-6. Rublev did fight back from 0-5 down in the TB

Rune was very passive in the decisive moments of the match. He was going to let Rublev self-destruct, which didn't happen. But that type of tennis got him to a winning position, so it's hard to say that was the wrong approach

 

[Kralingen]

He looked good against AdM because Demon was incapable of moving him around

This is my argument summed up. Djoko’s strategy of absorbing pace from the big hitters like Blev relies on explosive, free movement. While many people are pointing to the out of this world defensive gets, that’s not what I’m thinking about. I’m talking about sliding BHs, recovery from wide shots, intense explosive side to side bursts, which take place in the normal course of a point.

He did that a grand total of ZERO times vs demon.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

Does Djokovic need to be a speed demon to win this AO title? He can hold serve easy still. He doesn't rely on his ground game like he did back in 11-15. Now its about playing smarter and holding serve easy. Djokovic isn't going to let this title slip through his fingers. Not after what happened last year and how he can tie Nadal now. Aint gonna happen.

Now if he had Rune/Healthy Korda in his way.. Maybe things would be different. But its now open for him. He'll be a shark in a feeding frenzy with all these far less players in front of him

 

[Rosstour]

Assuming Novak and Shelton both win, and Shelton doesn't self-destruct...his power and speed could really test Djok

 

[Kralingen]

Djokovic fans if he wins the AO: Even with an injury, he's simply too good!
Djokovic fans if he loses: See, I told you he was injured!

I just watch the matches man, not interested in any sort of narrative or fanboying

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

I was about to say he is this eras Kafelnikov, but even Kafelnikov still won 2 majors, which I highly doubt for Rublev, heck I highly doubt even 1. Even with Rublev having the luck of playing in a garbage era dominated by 40 year old men, vs being in the era of peak Sampras, peak Agassi, peak Hewitt, peak Kuerten on clay, and others as Kafelnkikov was.

Kafelnikov was deadlier off the ground though. Rublev is like "meh" version of David Ferrer at his peak. He'll push Djoker a bit but ultimately it takes serious firepower to take 3 sets from Djoker especially in Australia.

And I don't see any Federer's, Sampras', Agassi's, Peak Stan, or 2009 Nadal's left in the draw LOL. Which is is really what its gonna take to beat Djoker here. The guy's left have no ammunition to beat him. Unless he hurts the leg further

 

[jm1980]

Kafelnikov was deadlier off the ground though. Rublev is like "meh" version of David Ferrer at his peak

Ferrer wishes he had Rublev's serve

 

[jm1980]

This is my argument summed up. Djoko’s strategy of absorbing pace from the big hitters like Blev relies on explosive, free movement. While many people are pointing to the out of this world defensive gets, that’s not what I’m thinking about. I’m talking about sliding BHs, recovery from wide shots, intense explosive side to side bursts, which take place in the normal course of a point.

He did that a grand total of ZERO times vs demon.

Djokovic's best chance is to Sampras the rest of the tournament. Focus on holding serve efficiently and expend energy on return when there is an opening

The problem for him is that he doesn't have Sampras' serve

 

[Fabresque]

The TTW coalition is furiously trying to invent scenarios in which Djokovic will lose.

The biggest compliment for Djokovic.

 

[Johnny505]

DM hits hard but doesn't play smart, runs around the court like a headless chicken scrapping for points. Put more effort into improving his tennis and less in commenting how great Katie Boulter is. Cringe.

 

[RF-18]

Rublev is like "meh" version of David Ferrer at his peak.

We have to see about that.