False. There are so many variables and precedents with regard to legends and myths to take into account for this. It's not 50-50. You might as well say the odds of Nadal being drawn with Rosol in the 1st round of Wimbledon is 50-50.
Patrick McEnroe fears Nadal may Quit
- Thread starter OddJack
- Start date
Crionics
Semi-Pro
What the hell are you talking about?
Why bring God into this? Totally unrelated and irrelevant.We're talking about the odds of Nadal ending in Djoko's quarter given the seeds of each (and assuming no rigging of the draw) and the odds of Nadal potentially meeting Djokovic in the quarter finals are 25%. It's just basic maths.
By the way, we were not addressing Rafa being in Djoko's half or not, but we were talking about the odds of Rafa being in Djoko's quarter. Playing Djokovic in the semi-final is not the same as playing him in the quarter-final.
mavsman149
Hall of Fame
Rafa may be declining or struggling with nerves, but that man will never quit...ever. He will retire when someone has to take him away in a stretcher and he literally can't compete any longer, the man is a warrior.
OddJack
G.O.A.T.
And why assume that a stretcher is far away in the future? It could be in 2015.
Boom-Boom
Legend
Levi_Ackerman
Legend
This is wishful thinking from Patrick McEnroe. He's a fedfan. lol. Seriously, he is.
InjuredNo?
Banned
Biggest myth there is in tennis. Nadal is the opposite of a warrior - he's a quitter who quits when he gets significantly behind, makes up an injury excuse and runs away from tennis whenever he has a big loss, resorts to gamesmanship when he's losing, and will likely show he can't handle decline.
Compare that to Federer, who is still going and shows no plans of stopping soon despite being a shell of his former self and getting his *** kicked in most tournaments sooner or later.
veroniquem
Bionic Poster
I've expressed similar fears before PMac.
RG is the event that currently maintains Rafa at the top. If anything went wrong there and he had to vegetate around #10, I'm afraid he might call it quits too. + he missed 6 tier 1 events in 2012, 2 in 2013 and 5 in 2014. So, it's not just the ranking, it's that combined with the fact he hasn't played a full season since 2011 that raises concerns.
Of course that is the worst case scenario. If he wins RG, things will not look so bleak anymore.
RG is the event that currently maintains Rafa at the top. If anything went wrong there and he had to vegetate around #10, I'm afraid he might call it quits too. + he missed 6 tier 1 events in 2012, 2 in 2013 and 5 in 2014. So, it's not just the ranking, it's that combined with the fact he hasn't played a full season since 2011 that raises concerns.
Of course that is the worst case scenario. If he wins RG, things will not look so bleak anymore.
Like the granny in the "Wedding Crashers" scene that follows(and they left out her comment seconds later to the butler gently trying to lead her away: "I can do it myself, *******!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEZjHzuruPs
Nadal is not retiring until at least the 2016 French Open. I guarantee it. Even if he loses every match he plays from now until then.
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
If Fed was a "shell" of his former self he would not even be in the current top 10.
Spot on. People have conveniently forgotten the 2011 US Open, where Dull greased out the 3rd set tiebreaker and, though still down 2 sets to 1, had a lot of momentum against a clearly injured Novak. Why "clearly" injured? Because he didn't crack 100 mph on one serve in the entire 4th set. So what happened? The Great "Warrior" stopped going after shots more than a few feet away and got crushed like the cockroach that he is, 6-1. "Warrior," SHEEEEEEEEE-IT....
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What the hell are you talking about?
We're talking about the odds of Nadal ending in Djoko's quarter given the seeds of each (and assuming no rigging of the draw) and the odds of Nadal potentially meeting Djokovic in the quarter finals are 25%. It's just basic maths.
By the way, we were not addressing Rafa being in Djoko's half or not, but we were talking about the odds of Rafa being in Djoko's quarter. Playing Djokovic in the semi-final is not the same as playing him in the quarter-final.
I'm guessing math wasn't his best subject in school. The odds of landing in somebody's quarter are...50%? Huh?
You know perfectly well that rankings can be deceptive, and, if you wanna talk rankings, then, yes, the difference is hardly discernible, but, he has won, what, 1 of the last 18 Slams? Compare that to what he used to do, I think an argument can definitely be made that he is a shadow of his former self.
AngieB
Banned
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
I know perfectly well that no one consistently plays at the same level at nearly age 34 as between around 22 and say 26.
At the same time, people write about Fed's peak as if he literally walked on water. A couple days ago I watched a replay of the 2006 FO final, and I saw, from Fed, some shanks, a blown overhead that is rare even today, and a few other mistakes that could have been from 2015. People spend too much time looking at game highlights, which doesn't show the mistakes.
Then there were basic volleying mistakes by Nadal that would surprise me even this year. And he was back around 20 feet behind the baseline.
It is heresy to suggest that the other two of the former "Big Four" just may also be getting better.
So if you are saying that 2015 Fed would get beaten most of the time by peak Fed, yes, I agree. But I don't think it is as black and white as most people make it out to be here, right now. Some of it is selective memory.
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
Carsomyr
Legend
I agree. Federer beyond his peak has/is capable of defeating Djokovic at the latter's best. So I think it's pretty safe to say that 2012-15 Fed would have gotten a few wins over Fed from 04-07. Not many, but a few.
But so much of the game today is based on things that peak in the early-mid 20s, like reflexes, explosiveness, endurance, and foot speed, all of which have declined for Fed. He was once one of the best defenders in the game, behind only Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and arguably Hewitt in the last 15 years. I'd even argue that his transition game was superior to all of them, even Djokovic.
And it's not just his defense that's hurt by these declines, either. He's not as quick changing directions or getting to balls, which means he has less options with them, and can't put as much on them.
Bender
G.O.A.T.
This will come down to a business decision and simple economics. If Nadals brand and future earnings as a retired tennis personality will suffer from playing in the top 30 then he will quit otherwise he will stay on.
Despite the fact that he just wants to sit back and fish after he retires dont forget he has that agency with carlos costa he has setup and has already signed some new talent. If his brand takes a hit or perceived hit then less players will be interested in signing on.
Despite the fact that he just wants to sit back and fish after he retires dont forget he has that agency with carlos costa he has setup and has already signed some new talent. If his brand takes a hit or perceived hit then less players will be interested in signing on.
InjuredNo?
Banned
You picked probably the worst match he played all year to watch. Yes, the 06 FO final was a shankfest, and we called it that at the time. It was a horrific errorfest from Federer after the 1st set. That was the match that resulted in Wilander giving the once infamous, "Federer has no balls" interview. He looked rattled and beaten up in that match...not the same man he was in virtually every other match that season.
I know money is important, but I still don't think what drives the pros. They didn't start playing tennis for the money. They do it for love.
Even if Rafa retires, he won't really retire. Those guys are action driven, they always want to do something. And I think Nadal will find a lot of other goals in his life.
I don't see Nadal just sitting and relaxing and partying all days. This guy is a workaholic.
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
HEY !!! That would be fun to watch !!
:twisted:p.s. I'd start watching ALL his matches, and taping them too. :evil:
