Nonsense. The Sampras serve is the greatest single shot in the history of tennis.
My memory of it at the time was that Pete's serve didn't stand out above about half a dozen other players who were around back then, but there is this annoying trick people have whereby someone has to have the greatest serve/return/whatever because they're the top player around at that moment and a certain feature of their game is exceptional. That serve came on top of all the other wonderful gifts he had that contributed to his success.
I would argue Schwartzman's returning ability should be given way more credit than it typically gets.
Here's the thing about the storied "Sampras serve": it means so many different things to so many people it's virtually impossible to say which takes are accurate or not unless we agree on exactly what we're talking about.
So let's untangle its GOATness once and for all. Y'all know the drill about separating serves and service games. You might even know about
the ATP's double counting of aces and DFs for most '90s Slam matches, which along with
rising service stats (from increasingly bigger racquets and greater spin thanks to poly) renders comparisons with '90s guys using the ATP database all but moot.
That means we need other frames of reference. Thankfully TA has its own database from hundreds of charted matches:
Pay particular attention to the Unret% on 1st serves - a
quick primer on URS% if you need it - which is a better barometer of serving prowess than most as just about everyone goes for aces/freebies on 1sts and, unlike with the overall URS%, we don't need to worry too much about how to adjust for 1st-serve % and serving strategy based on racquets, opponents, etc. (Hence the ingeniousness - h/t
@slice serve ace - of the aforementioned ace % on 1st serves, since almost all aces come off 1sts.) So Pistol is ranked high as expected, even higher than Raonic, Kyrgios and Roddick, but still well below Ivanisevic, Karlovic, Opelka, Krajicek and Isner - plus Arthurs who, again, likely vies with Goran and Ivo for the throne. That's 6 from the last 30 years alone, which is why this Pistolite readily acknowledges that, as a stand-alone shot, Sampras' 1st serve may not even make the top 10 of the Open Era, let alone
all time. (Denton and Zivojinovic would be up there, and perhaps Philippoussis and J. Johansson though real/perceived unreliability and lack of data, respectively, do give me some pause. And going further back Stoefen, Vines, Falkenburg and Big Pancho would possibly/probably edge out my boy thanks to
their height advantage.)
Which brings us to that vaunted 2nd serve. A quick glance at TA's Unret% on 2nds might leave you underwhelmed as Pete's 23.1%, while still stellar, places him not only behind the usual suspects of Ivo, Reilly, John, Goran, Rick plus Rafter (unexpected) and Stich (not so much) but also behind virtual journeymen like Brown, Bublik, Herbert and Cressy, who improbably but
understandably claims the top spot at a whopping 43.2%. (FYI Nick currently averages 23.4%, so pretty much tied with Pistol.) So does that mean Sampras' much-hyped 2nd serve is in fact grossly overrated and Cressy's almost twice as good?
Not even close. First off consider just how low these %s are, which should tell you that even ATG servers, with good reason, don't go for 1st-ish serves on most 2nds because they know it's a low-% play. Maxime is indeed one big and probably historic exception, and while I like to repeat my genius irony that today's players should be hitting
more DFs, even I'm not so sure that DFing on almost 10% of all SPs is a viable tactic for anyone (yes, even a limited player like Cressy) considering how close many of these matches are. It's fair to say that UR% on 2nd serves is but one measure of their strength and nobody should fixate on it to the exclusion of everything else.
Also some of you TTW veterans might recall moi paying close attention to
Karlovic's '15 Wimbledon run where he fired an absurd 41.25 aces/match. (FYI his 0.293 aces/SP still fell short of '01 Goran's 0.309% through 4R, but he did post a likely career-best
0.318 and an overall 0.312 at '09 Wimby. Let's just say
Goran's own Wimby career was more up and down.) I still remember him averaging almost 120 mph on 2nd serves (believe it was 118) - at least comparable, after adjusting for radar gun tech, to
Sampras clocking in at 110 mph at '01 Wimby - which lends credence to the view that he's the one who holds the "legitimate" TA record with a 32.2% average of unreturned 2nds and, in turn, his 2nd serve is in fact as good as Pistol's more renowned counterpart, if not even better.
But I can also say this: never once did I feel Karlovic could uncork that feared 2nd-serve ace at will on big points, and I'm sure almost all of us who followed both Ivo's and Pistol's careers would agree. Also we know for a fact that Pete's corrected %s of career 2nd-serve points won (since '91) were great but not extraordinary, which tells me there are other forces at work here.
So you could say the best way to judge 2nd serves is not how many 2nd-serve points you win per se, but rather how often you can rain down those big 2nd serves when necessary. Ditto on 1sts. And when do you desperately need these big serves? At the biggies aka the Slams, of course!
Now it's virtually impossible to quantify that metric for the '90s guys due to said double counting of aces/DFs, but here's where another oft-overlooked stat comes in handy, courtesy of UTS this time (h/t
@rick kerr):
So this is that rarest of days... when you jokers are actually better than useless and find something new. That something comes from @rick kerr who astutely noted that UTS's Svc. In-play Pts. Won % - which excludes, naturally, aces and DFs - is another term/equation for % of rallies won on...
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
As you can see Pistol is just about the only stud (since '91) whose % of in-play service points won off clay doesn't drop as you move up the rounds, which in fact
rises to a stunning 72.8% in his 14 Slam finals won. Of course this is where you come back and say that's cuz Pete has the best
service game as opposed to the best serve, which certainly sounds plausible as even Arthurs and Karlovic are stuck at #15 and #16 (or #14 and #11 if you include RG). So close but no cigar, right?
Not so fast, because that explanation fails to account for the fact that Pistol also leads the Big 3 after all aces are discounted. Even the biggest Sampras partisans would be hard-pressed to argue that his ground game, as good as it was, would be up there with Fedalovic's after equalizing for all possible conditions, and let's not forget Pete would be getting more 1st serves in today which would boost his lead even further. Then what are you left with? That's right, a truckload of unreturned serves (without aces though with also works) and weak replies. And we know his 1st serve wasn't quite the best of the best.
Now you see why that 2nd serve remains the stuff of legend. It's true that in terms of day-to-day GPA Pistol usually didn't stand out next to the servebots, because he didn't need to go all out in every match. But when he did... you were probably witnessing the single greatest hold machine in tennis history, and he has that GOAT weapon to thank, not only for his cruise control on serve but also for his well-known (and
now proven) penchant for coasting in his return games.
We tend to chalk up his big-match rep to clutchness, mental strength or something outside the physical realm, but the truth of the matter is, no athlete's mentality can be completely separated from the rest of his game and Sampras is probably the best example I can think of.
His legendary "clutchness" comes from not just his neocortex but also the very fact that his GOAT serve/service game allows him to take those big risks which would be borderline suicide for most other players. Put another way, those 2nd-serve aces or 2nd-S&Vs on BPs are relatively low-% plays even for Pistol - but those %s were higher for him than for anyone else.
Put 'em all together and you've got
the BOAT (K off clay, if you insist). And yes, the GSOAT package, as long as you understand what you mean by it.