Peak Djokovic vs peak Nadal at Wimbledon and the US Open

[CoolCoolCool]

Yes It is very hard for me to grasp when I see examples like Med and Johansson being given to ridicule their titles as if they played in same gen of BIg 3 ? The agenda is clear, a 7 time winner has not proven his peak and is only as good as 2 time winner while the Lord with 8 titles is proven to have peaked higher despite the man being 0-3 and he himself claiming he was good in the second decade of his career of his career as his first, yet the people here are saying otherwise against the player's own wisdom. so the agenda is certain when I see such examples given, so I cannot concur.



Safin is highly overrated, I am a huge fan of Safin myself but his win is not something which he can replicate. If somebody says Safin has a higher peak than Federer at AO then I will always reject it, Federer has not won 6 titles by just longevity, his own years have been higher than Safin though anyone can claim Safin>Fed, it is a better argument than Rafa>Nole because at least Safin took 3 sets off peak Federer, however I would still not accept it. 2007 Fed will beat Safin, and Federer is greater because he has a higher peak in Aus.

Please, I would love to hear about my agenda in particular (I didn't even specify who I think had the higher peak btw).

Again, nobody said Rafa is as good as Djoker on grass, Djoker is clearly better. The question is in regard to their best version and surely you're aware that all the versions of Rafa that failed repeatedly to win Wimbledon after 2010 are nowhere near as good as his 2008 version, right?

 

[Razer]

Dude there’s a difference between having a higher peak and being able to maintain a higher level for an extended period of time. I’m not sure why you can’t grasp that simple concept.

I understood the narrative dude.

So Nole has 7 slams (& 2-0 h2h in finals) and yet peaked lower than Rafa who has 2 slams
So Nole has 7 slams yet he peaked lower than Murray who leads 2-0 in H2H and has 2 slams
So Nole has 7 titles (& 3-0 h2h in finals) and he definetly peaked lower than Federer who has 8 slams

So basically Nole's 7 slams are useless since he peaked 4th highest, this is the narrative here , well to each their own, you guys can keep on believing this.. carry on.

 

[MichaelNadal]

It's a 5 sets toss-up on both events. Picking a side depends on who you like more honestly

The rationale!

 

[messiahrobins]

08 RAFA over 15 Joker in 5.

10 RAFA over 11 Joker in 4 as is the custom for their 2-1 Open matches, bud.

08 Nadal beat grass goat close to his peak. He definitely beats any version of Djokovic at sw19. Nadal also would never lose a wimbledon final to puppy Alcaraz in truth.
Uso we already know the answer as 2010-2013 both were close to their peaks anywhere. Nadal winning 66% of their matches there is about spot on.
A more interesting and difficult debate is peak nadal v peak federer at the uso.

 

[BorgTheGOAT]

I understood the narrative dude.

So Nole has 7 slams (& 2-0 h2h in finals) and yet peaked lower than Rafa who has 2 slams
So Nole has 7 slams yet he peaked lower than Murray who leads 2-0 in H2H and has 2 slams
So Nole has 7 titles (& 3-0 h2h in finals) and he definetly peaked lower than Federer who has 8 slams

So basically Nole's 7 slams are useless since he peaked 4th highest, this is the narrative here , well to each their own, you guys can keep on believing this.. carry on.

Yeah ridiculous undermining of Djokovic. Since he became the most successful his haters are arguing that basically each and everyone has a higher peak level than him. Good thing for them that unlike numbers, peak level cannot be measured/proven, so you can argue each and every nonsense.

Small correction on your post btw: technically Novak is not 2-0 in (slam) finals against Ned on grass even though one can argue 18 SF was the real final.

 

[StrongRule]

2011 and 2013 were pretty much peak vs peak at the USO and I think Djokovic had a much stronger chance of winning 2013 than Nadal 2011. In fact, 2011 could have been over in straights and in 2013 he could have easily taken a 2-1 lead. That wouldn't guarantee him the win but would be a huge momentum gain.

Wimbledon is closer and harder to judge. Nadal 2007 won but it was close before the injury and in 2011 Djokovic won very convincingly. Given Djokovic improved in 2014-2015 and 2011 was a very good Nadal and in his grass peak (2006-2011) although for sure not his BEST version, I'm giving Djokovic the edge. 2018 had both at a pretty good level and it could have gone either way.

So, I suppose slight edge for Djokovic in both, however by a small margin. Something like 6-4 in a 10-match series. Maybe 5.5 and 4.5. After all, Nadal also beat a pretty strong Djokovic in Queen's 2008 that can be considered as well.

Peak Nadal at the USO is 2010, followed by 2013. Surely not mentally broken 2011 Nadal who was broken 11 times in the final. And ROFLMAO at anyone thinking any version of Djokovic is a lock to beat 2010 Nadal at the USO. Only the 2011 version would stand a chance.

 

[The Blond Blur]

I understood the narrative dude.

So Nole has 7 slams (& 2-0 h2h in finals) and yet peaked lower than Rafa who has 2 slams
So Nole has 7 slams yet he peaked lower than Murray who leads 2-0 in H2H and has 2 slams
So Nole has 7 titles (& 3-0 h2h in finals) and he definetly peaked lower than Federer who has 8 slams

So basically Nole's 7 slams are useless since he peaked 4th highest, this is the narrative here , well to each their own, you guys can keep on believing this.. carry on.

You clearly don’t know what peak means since you’re conflating that to career success but carry on. No one said that Murray peaked higher at Wimby so that’s just a straw man there.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Peak Nadal at the USO is 2010, followed by 2013. Surely not mentally broken 2011 Nadal who was broken 11 times in the final. And ROFLMAO at anyone thinking any version of Djokovic is a lock to beat 2010 Nadal at the USO. Only the 2011 version would stand a chance.

I’d agree. I’d give nadal the slight edge at us open. His 2010 and 2013 levels were insane. Even 2011 Djokovic would struggle but probably pushes it to 5 still.

 

[DSH]

I think 2010 Ned beats 2011 Djokovic at the US Open, but barely.

I think 2015 Djokovic beats 2008 Nadal at Wimbledon, but barely.

And if a third serve were allowed, who would win?

 

[Razer]

Yeah ridiculous undermining of Djokovic. Since he became the most successful his haters are arguing that basically each and everyone has a higher peak level than him. Good thing for them that unlike numbers, peak level cannot be measured/proven, so you can argue each and every nonsense.

Small correction on your post btw: technically Novak is not 2-0 in (slam) finals against Ned on grass even though one can argue 18 SF was the real final.

Yeah, thanks, I always forget that 2018 was was not a final, in my mind too it is always the final.

The Djokovic underrating and Nadal overrating is indeed annoying, a guy who always has been shaky in week 1 and actually started to lose to nobodies later is being marketed as a guy with a peak as good as Novak/higher all because of his win vs 2000s Federer, lol, it is ridiculous beyond levels. That is like marketing Wawrinka as a higher peak in Australia than Federer on Plexicushion because Wawrinka has beat Novak but Federer could not. Absurd. Peaks are always vs the field and that is something which these people don't understand, Nadal's glory on Grass have always been a bit parasitic dwelling on Fed's expense, as high as it is it is below Djoker's and also susceptible to losses to greats from other eras too, much more than Novak is susceptible.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

Yeah ridiculous undermining of Djokovic. Since he became the most successful his haters are arguing that basically each and everyone has a higher peak level than him. Good thing for them that unlike numbers, peak level cannot be measured/proven, so you can argue each and every nonsense.

Small correction on your post btw: technically Novak is not 2-0 in (slam) finals against Ned on grass even though one can argue 18 SF was the real final.

So Nole has 7 slams (& 2-0 h2h in finals) and yet peaked lower than Rafa who has 2 slams
So Nole has 7 slams yet he peaked lower than Murray who leads 2-0 in H2H and has 2 slams
So Nole has 7 titles (& 3-0 h2h in finals) and he definetly peaked lower than Federer who has 8 slams

So basically Nole's 7 slams are useless since he peaked 4th highest, this is the narrative here , well to each their own, you guys can keep on believing this.. carry on.

Very correct both of you.

What people don’t understand is that tennis performance is like almost everything in the world a Gaussian distribution. We can’t see the actual distribution but just observe different points on it.

We are also unable to observe the peak of the distribution.

So some posters here pick a year and declare that peak and think that they have the hypothetical peak.

However, your method of looking at the entire performance brings us closer to the hypothetical peak because we have multiple data points. Simple math.

 

[tennis_pro]

Nadal isn't beating peak Djokovic outside of clay. 2011 was peak Djokovic and he dominated a very good Nadal pretty much everywhere.

 

[BorgTheGOAT]

Very correct both of you.

What people don’t understand is that tennis performance is like almost everything in the world a Gaussian distribution. We can’t see the actual distribution but just observe different points on it.

We are also unable to observe the peak of the distribution.

So some posters here pick a year and declare that peak and think that they have the hypothetical peak.

However, your method of looking at the entire performance brings us closer to the hypothetical peak because we have multiple data points. Simple math.

The mistake many people in these boards are committing is that they read way too much into peak performance of individual matches (prime example Safin). If a peak form isn’t sustained at the very least over a tournament (better a whole season) it isn’t worth much as everyone can catch a great day against a favourable opponent from time to time. Also people seem to think that peak level from matches against a certain player can simply be assumed to be replicated against other players in those hypotheticals.
How often have I read Federer from USO 2004 final would beat any version of Nadal. Fact is, Hewitt’s playing style matches great with Fed’s, when playing Hewitt, Fed has self-confidence and knows the match is always on his racquet as he is the superior player. Had he played Nadal instead of Hewitt the very same time, the very same day, the match and Fed’s performance would have looked/turned out completely differently.
Same with Nadal and Djokovic. People claim, Nadal in the 08 final was so great, beat prime Fed on grass and assume with that level he would hypothetically beat any version of Djokovic. Fact is, this exact level would never be replicated against Djokovic as it is a complete different match-up. It could well be the case, that Nadal in the 2011 final wasn’t in worse form than in the 08 final just that Djoker didn’t let him look so good.

 

[Devin]

For Wimbledon: 2015 Djokovic > 2007 ~ 2008 Nadal > 2011 ~ 2014 Djokovic. I'd say 2015 Djokovic beats 2007/2008 Nadal in 5 sets. Nadal was very good from the ground in the 2007 final and hit some ridiculous passing shots in that match IIRC. 2008 Nadal had better serving (his 2008 final was ever so slightly better than 2007 but it's closer than people think).

I don't really think any version of Djokovic could dismantle 2008 Nadal in 4 sets except peak Federer from 2003/2005/2006. 2004 Federer probably needs a fifth set.

For USO: 2011 Djokovic > 2010 Nadal > 2013 Nadal ~ 2015 Djokovic. 2011 Djokovic beats 2010 Nadal in 5 sets IMO (it would be very close and Nadal could have chances if Djokovic rolls his serves in like he did in the final, SF form I'd be more comfortable backing Novak). A bit torn between 2013 Nadal and 2015 Djokovic, but I decided to go with this since both matches had key moments that went their way and potentially changed the outcome of the match.

Overall, Djokovic has shown a higher level at both.

 

[Razer]

The mistake many people in these boards are committing is that they read way too much into peak performance of individual matches (prime example Safin). If a peak form isn’t sustained at the very least over a tournament (better a whole season) it isn’t worth much as everyone can catch a great day against a favourable opponent from time to time. Also people seem to think that peak level from matches against a certain layer can simply be assumed to be replicated against other players in those hypotheticals.
How often have I read Federer from USO 2004 final would beat any version of Nadal. Fact is, Hewitt’s playing style matches great with Fed’s, when playing Hewitt, Fed has self-confidence and knows the match is always on his racquet as he is the superior player. Had he played Nadal instead of Hewitt the very same time, the very same day, the match and Fed’s performance would have looked/turned out completely differently.
Same with Nadal and Djokovic. People claim, Nadal in the 08 final was so great, beat prime Fed on grass and assume with that level he would hypothetically beat any version of Djokovic. Fact is, this exact level would never be replicated against Djokovic as it is a complete different match-up. It could well be the case, that Nadal in the 2011 final wasn’t in worse form than in the 08 final just that Djoker didn’t let him look so good.

Well said

Performance against 1 player is not proof of performance against field.

Otherwise Stan himself would be many slams given how he played against Djokovic.

 

[BorgTheGOAT]

Well said

Performance against 1 player is not proof of performance against field.

Otherwise Stan himself would be many slams given how he played against Djokovic.

Exactly and I guarantee you replace Djokovic with Fed in that AO Quarter and Stan does not look so good anymore. It is way too simplistic to think well he beat Novak and Novak beats Fed so Stan from this match would beat Fed.

 

[Razer]

Exactly and I guarantee you replace Djokovic with Fed in that AO Quarter and Stan does not look so good anymore. It is way too simplistic to think well he beat Novak and Novak beats Fed so Stan from this match would beat Fed.

Federer could make many so called high peaks look clownish.

Verdasco from 2009 would have been dispatched in straight sets or 4 sets if he had somehow beate Nadal in the semis. We would not even rating verdasco/Nadal high for 2009 if Verdasvo had won because Federer would have butchered him

Federer's 1 problem was Nadal and at the expense of Federer even Nadal is marketed as godly as if others would all roll over again him

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

The mistake many people in these boards are committing is that they read way too much into peak performance of individual matches (prime example Safin). If a peak form isn’t sustained at the very least over a tournament (better a whole season) it isn’t worth much as everyone can catch a great day against a favourable opponent from time to time. Also people seem to think that peak level from matches against a certain player can simply be assumed to be replicated against other players in those hypotheticals.
How often have I read Federer from USO 2004 final would beat any version of Nadal. Fact is, Hewitt’s playing style matches great with Fed’s, when playing Hewitt, Fed has self-confidence and knows the match is always on his racquet as he is the superior player. Had he played Nadal instead of Hewitt the very same time, the very same day, the match and Fed’s performance would have looked/turned out completely differently.
Same with Nadal and Djokovic. People claim, Nadal in the 08 final was so great, beat prime Fed on grass and assume with that level he would hypothetically beat any version of Djokovic. Fact is, this exact level would never be replicated against Djokovic as it is a complete different match-up. It could well be the case, that Nadal in the 2011 final wasn’t in worse form than in the 08 final just that Djoker didn’t let him look so good.

Great point about not being able to replicate the hypothetical peaks. Because that happens and then people here need to come up with extreme mental gymnastics to justify it.

Examples:
- Federer couldn’t replicate his “peak level” after 2008 since nadal and djokovic didn’t allow him to dominate. Mental gymnastics: Fed was old with 26.5 years.
- Rafa couldn’t replicate his peak level, outside of clay (and us open hard court swing 2013), after 2010 since djokovic didn’t allow him. Mental gymnastics: Rafa was too injured by the time he was 24.5.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

I’d agree. I’d give nadal the slight edge at us open. His 2010 and 2013 levels were insane. Even 2011 Djokovic would struggle but probably pushes it to 5 still.

Keep in mind that djokovic had a brutal five setter vs Federer in the 2010 semis, while nadal had a Youzhny. No wonder that Novak ran out of gas in the final.

Had nadal played Federer in the semis and Novak youzhny… then Novak probably takes the final vs nadal.

And Novak still had flaws in his game back then. From 2015 Novak seems to be better than his 2010-2013 version.

Edit: 2013 Novak also had nightmare match up in the semis vs wawrinka, while nadal had gasquet… again, I wonder how a well rested Novak would have played in the final.

 

[InsideOut900]

Keep in mind that djokovic had a brutal five setter vs Federer in the 2010 semis, while nadal had a Youzhny. No wonder that Novak ran out of gas in the match.

Had nadal played Federer in the semis and Novak youzhny… then Novak probably takes the final vs nadal.

And Novak still had flaws in his game back then. 2015 Novak seems to be better than his 2010-2013 version.

2010 Djoko had stamina issues beyond playing a mildly intense 3:45 hours semi. That would be nothing for him even in his 30s.

His match to match and sometimes even in-match stamina were simply off before 2011.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Keep in mind that djokovic had a brutal five setter vs Federer in the 2010 semis, while nadal had a Youzhny. No wonder that Novak ran out of gas in the final.

Had nadal played Federer in the semis and Novak youzhny… then Novak probably takes the final vs nadal.

And Novak still had flaws in his game back then. From 2015 Novak seems to be better than his 2010-2013 version.

It would be close no doubt. I definitely see a 5 setter especially if both guys rested. I see both Wimbledon and us open matches against the best versions of Djokovic and nadal being super close.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

2010 Djoko had stamina issues beyond playing a mildly intense 3:45 hours semi. That would be nothing for him even in his 30s.

His match to match and sometimes even in-match stamina were simply off before 2011.

I’m not only talking about stamina. It must have taken a huge mental toll to beat the US open legend Federer (who gave Novak a lot of painful losses in the us open) while being match points down.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

It would be close no doubt. I definitely see a 5 setter especially if both guys rested. I see both Wimbledon and us open matches against the best versions of Djokovic and nadal being super close.

Agree that it would be close. I just feel that Novak worked so nicely on his game (pimped serve, better volleying, etc) and further improved his mental game that he would take those close matches.

 

[Devin]

Federer could make many so called high peaks look clownish.

Verdasco from 2009 would have been dispatched in straight sets or 4 sets if he had somehow beate Nadal in the semis. We would not even rating verdasco/Nadal high for 2009 if Verdasvo had won because Federer would have butchered him

Federer's 1 problem was Nadal and at the expense of Federer even Nadal is marketed as godly as if others would all roll over again him

If peak Verdasco from AO 2009 had played Federer, I'd say Federer would've won in 4 tight sets. Verdasco wasn't the easiest matchup for Nadal because he could rush Nadal's forehand and hit big in general (also he was a lefty). Federer wasn't really going to be as vulnerable to the big hitting, although Verdasco definitely had the game to grab a set, no question about that IMO.

 

[TsitsiBH]

2015 Djokovic beats 2008 Nadal at Wimbledon in 4 sets. Novak's serve & return combo was a cheat code that year (see the final vs Federer).

2011 Djokovic beats 2010 Nadal at US Open in 5 sets. Nole was too good from the baseline and it's just too tough of a match-up on this surface for Rafa even though his serve was peaking in 2010.

 

[fedfan24]

Gotta favour Nadal at his best. He had to face peak/prime Fed 3 times during his own grass peak. Djokovic otoh faced the slower down old version.

2011 I don’t think was a great match from either of them, at either event.

USO 2>1 is decisive.