Peak ELO

Higher peak?

  • Total voters
    11
  • Poll closed .
I think it tells us Peak Elo is a measurement of consistency, not peak, and that Safin was inconsistent given his ability level.

UTS' Recent Elo Rating metric is perhaps a better indicator of peak level and gives us data that better conforms with our intuitions about these players:

Safin = 2412
Zverev = 2396
Rublev = 2362
 
daggerman said:
I think it tells us Peak Elo is a measurement of consistency, not peak, and that Safin was inconsistent given his ability level.

UTS' Recent Elo Rating metric is perhaps a better indicator of peak level and gives us data that better conforms with our intuitions about these players:

Safin = 2412
Zverev = 2396
Rublev = 2362
Click to expand...

Murray = 2652
Sampras = 2575

ahahahaha
 
Zeref probably already peaked higher than Safin in BO3 somewhere between Madrid, Rome and WTF of 2018. BO5 goes to Safin for now.

Rublev is BHEW.
 
AnOctorokForDinner said:
Murray = 2652
Sampras = 2575

ahahahaha
Click to expand...

1. Just because a metric isn't perfect doesn't mean it isn't useful. We've gone over that point many times.
2. Recent Elo is obviously also a measure of consistency, and Murray was obviously very consistent at his best. Sampras, by contrast, aimed to peak at slams and wasn't as concerned with playing his best tennis at other tournaments. Both plain Elo and recent Elo capture this difference in approach.
3. A peak recent Elo of 2575 is still very high and suggests you're capable of beating anybody. So Elo gets that right about Pete.
 
daggerman said:
1. Just because a metric isn't perfect doesn't mean it isn't useful. We've gone over that point many times.
2. Recent Elo is obviously also a measure of consistency, and Murray was obviously very consistent at his best. Sampras, by contrast, aimed to peak at slams and wasn't as concerned with playing his best tennis at other tournaments. Both plain Elo and recent Elo capture this difference in approach.
3. A peak recent Elo of 2575 is still very high and suggests you're capable of beating anybody. So Elo gets that right about Pete.
Click to expand...

So elo doesn't really tell us anything new. You can see consistency/peak patterns by analysing results as it is.
 
Poisoned Slice said:
Gimme a beat.
Click to expand...

6807540_preview.png
 
AnOctorokForDinner said:
So elo doesn't really tell us anything new. You can see consistency/peak patterns by analysing results as it is.
Click to expand...

I mean, if you don't think Elo gives you any useful information, then don't use it. But frankly, it's disappointing that it's taken you years just to develop a basic understanding of how to interpret Elo.

I'm not here to teach you how to think, big bro.
 
mike danny said:
You picked the weirdest examples. I'll just look at their performance timelines.
Click to expand...

Well, I'm not sure it's possible to pick a weirder example to prove a point than Marat Safin.

Here's another one. Who's more consistent: Diego Schwartzman or Matteo Berrettini?
 
daggerman said:
I mean, if you don't think Elo gives you any useful information, then don't use it. But frankly, it's disappointing that it's taken you years just to develop a basic understanding of how to interpret Elo.

I'm not here to teach you how to think, big bro.
Click to expand...

What's disappointing is how some people keep misusing it and you say nothing on that.
 
daggerman said:
Well, I'm not sure it's possible to pick a weirder example to prove a point than Marat Safin.

Here's another one. Who's more consistent: Diego Schwartzman or Matteo Berrettini?
Click to expand...
Schwartzman.

Regarding Safin, I know that even Ferrer was more consistent than him and, I think, even has the higher ELO.
 
AnOctorokForDinner said:
What's disappointing is how some people keep misusing it and you say nothing on that.
Click to expand...

The next time I see somebody misusing it I promise I'll say something about it. I haven't seen many misuses of it lately, however.

Also, I feel that I should apologize for my tone in that last post. I shouldn't be so rude on here. I'll make sure it doesn't happen again.
 
daggerman said:
1. Just because a metric isn't perfect doesn't mean it isn't useful. We've gone over that point many times.
2. Recent Elo is obviously also a measure of consistency, and Murray was obviously very consistent at his best. Sampras, by contrast, aimed to peak at slams and wasn't as concerned with playing his best tennis at other tournaments. Both plain Elo and recent Elo capture this difference in approach.
3. A peak recent Elo of 2575 is still very high and suggests you're capable of beating anybody. So Elo gets that right about Pete.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but it doesn't Muzza lol.
 
daggerman said:
The next time I see somebody misusing it I promise I'll say something about it. I haven't seen many misuses of it lately, however.

Also, I feel that I should apologize for my tone in that last post. I shouldn't be so rude on here. I'll make sure it doesn't happen again.
Click to expand...

I didn't take much notice tbh, this thread was designed to provoke after all so fair's fair.

Yeah now that Loo is no more the elo tales died down.
 
mike danny said:
Schwartzman.

Regarding Safin, I know that even Ferrer was more consistent than him and, I think, even has the higher ELO.
Click to expand...

Peak Elo ratings:

Berrettini: 2102
Schwartzman: 2097

They're about the same. And I promise I'm not just trying to say "gotcha!" I would've said Schwartzman, too. I'm just pointing out that Elo rating can be used as a tool to challenge our assumptions and spur further investigation. It doesn't mean we have to regard it as a single source of truth.
 
Peak elo doesn't mean higher peak.

Having said that, elo is still garbage when applied to tennis. It's more understandable when used in sports/games where there is a far greater concentration of games played.

A thought though, part of me thinks they're calculating this wrong, because in order to calculate how many points gained/lost per match, you need to base it off both players current elo ranking, which means you need to have an entire database of the history of the elo rankings. That brings up the question, at what point in time did they choose to start at, and how did they decide what each player's current elo should be?
 
ADuck said:
Peak elo doesn't mean higher peak.

Having said that, elo is still garbage when applied to tennis. It's more understandable when used in sports/games where there is a far greater concentration of games played.

A thought though, part of me thinks they're calculating this wrong, because in order to calculate how many points gained/lost per match, you need to base it off both players current elo ranking, which means you need to have an entire database of the history of the elo rankings. That brings up the question, at what point in time did they choose to start at, and how did they decide what each player's current elo should be?
Click to expand...

At the start of the Open Era. That renders early ELO entirely unreliable until it settles down in five years or so. The UTS guy acknowledged it. It wouldn't have been comparable anyway due to the different makeup of the tour that was transitioning from open and pro/invitational tournaments coexisting to nearly all official tournaments being fully open by mid-70s.
 
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