PEAK ERA. It's happening!

[Meles]

edit: EVERYTHING IN THE ORIGINAL OP BELOW IS COMPLETELY WRONG. The ATP site has partially entered Olympics data for the year which has destroyed all of their statistics. For return games they've added the games won by the returner to their totals without adding anything to the total number of return games played. Previously, I identified that they completely ommitted the return points data from the Olympics, but did add the serve data. However, the 2nd serve points won data was incorrect because the ATP did not count double faults as 2nd serve attempts. 2016 ATP Data is completely wrong unless it is strictly filtered for just clay or grass court events.

Right now Delpo, Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal have won 60% of their hard court games so far in 2016.

Per @Gary Duane this has never happened before. When you go back to the 90s, it didn't happen very often, maybe 8 times in the DECADE. Suddenly Agassi and Hewitt did it in 2003. Now we have 4 times in one year. All without Federer no less.

This unprecedented dominance is occuring with PEAK GOAT returning by several players so far in 2016 on hard courts:
Rafael Nadal 43.5%
Andy Murray 43.2%
Juan Martin del Potro 39.7%
Novak Djokovic 37.2%
Gael Monfils 32.7%

For comparison sake lets look for some better numbers for an entire year. Djokovic2011 was 41%. Murray2009 led with 35%. Djokovic and Murray are the career leaders in this stat at 33%. Djokovic has also done 37% before.

We know from study that the most dominant games won numbers above 60% occur in slams where the winner was dominating on return. This allows for more lopsided scores. GOAT HARD COURT RETURN ERA is causing a PEAK HARD COURT YEAR.


Murray is in the hunt for the PEAK GOAT of hard court returning. We see that Delpo in his limited play has been breaking serve all too well and his slice returning appears to be the area of improvement. Nadal's general play is close, his serve is just abhorent as his return points numbers are quite good this year.

With this veteran return performance and the NextGen hitting hard this Fall its going to be an epic end to the year. Will Nadal make WTF? Or will Nadal somehow dominate and win the whole thing with an improved service. GOAT END OF SEASON coming for 2016.

 

[Red Rick]

 

[TheFifthSet]

Are you using the stats listed on the ATP site? I'm pretty sure Nadal's hard court return numbers are way off. TA has him at 41.7 RPW% and 52.4 TPW%....so...going off that and his 16-8 record, there's pretty much no way he's winning 60% of his games on the surface.

 

[Meles]

Yeah its hard for the big servers to hit 60% because they generally don't return well enough.

Wawrinka handled three of the return bots:

 

[90's Clay]

Broken Wrist DelPo, Average Playing Wawrinka, Past prime Murray, Washed up Nadal.. PEAK ERA!!!!

 

[TheFifthSet]

Same goes for Delpo actually, a cursory glance at his HC match logs would suggest that it's much, much lower than 60%. He also can't be winning 39.7% of his return games if he's winning only 38.1% of return points.

 

[Meles]

Are you going by the ATP site? I'm pretty sure Nadal's hard court return stats are off. TA has him at 41.7 RPW% and 52.4 TPW%....so...no way he's winning 60% of his games on the surface.

Tennis Abstract numbers on points aren't that good and they are correct. ATP is messed up on points numbers for return, 2nd serve points won and anything reliant on those numbers.

Nadal is the fun one in this bunch because in truth his return numbers are excellent this year. For his career on hard courts Nadal is
RPW 40.4% first return points 31.5% 2nd return points 53.8%
and coming into 2016 US Open I have him at RPW 40.4% 1st return 32.3% 2nd return 53.3%

ATP stat is wrong on points because of Olympics and I was able to back figure the return numbers using Tennis Abstract and Alegbra. I have Nadal at 52.0% points won, so these numbers on return for 2016 are probably low.

I've checked the Delpo games won numbers by looking at ATP tour and tennis abstract since he has plenty of Olympics data. ATP has Delpo at 150 serve games and 148 return games total. I added up the break points won in tennis abstract and that agrees with the ATP site for return games won and break points won (same thing.) Everything looks in order and others are welcome to hand check the games data if they wish.

So this really is the case with Nadal. He is returning extremely well. The games number for Nadal is exceptionally high because he has been exceptionally clutch on serve and return winning at much higher rates on serve and return points than regular points. This gets him to the lead on return games won at a whopping 43.5%. Nadal's serve is abhorrent so he's got a nice undominance ratio going here or something.

Murray has won 43.3% of his return points this year and he was quite clutch coming into the US Open meaning he did a lot better on break points. Djokovic has much better return numbers this year on points, but has been quite unclutch and so was a large 3.4% below Murray on BPs coming into the US Open. Its been a strong return year on hard this year and RIO's cool conditions and slow surface may be helping the returners too, so its not so surprising that the three top returners for games played the maximum matches in RIO Olympics.

If Nadal can summon a semblance of a serve he may be very dangerous for the rest of the year.

 

[Meles]

Same goes for Delpo actually, a cursory glance at his HC match logs would suggest that it's much, much lower than 60%. He also can't be winning 39.7% of his return games if he's winning only 38.1% of return points.

Delpo has been cherry picking his events so his early run in Memphis helps him. Delpo is the easiest one to hand add up. I am clerically challenged so I like to automate things to eliminate any errors so not my thing; I did the data checks mentioned in the post above.

 

[Meles]

Broken Wrist DelPo, Average Playing Wawrinka, Past prime Murray, Washed up Nadal.. PEAK ERA!!!!

haha. Well these guys are goating on return and that really doesn't win slams. Guys like Sampras and Roddick break much less so they can't get to 60%. A player has to be a strong returner and also have solid serving to get to 60%. These 4 are doing it.

Your appraisal of Murray is clearly wrong given what he's been doing this year. I'd say broken Elbow Nole let Wawrinka extend his pigeonhood. Delpo and Murray ran out of gas at US Open (not surprising and nothing new for Murray.)

Broken wrist Delpo is a beast. He's serving better than ever, he's hitting his forehand better than ever, and the stupid slice has largely been impenetrable and has greatly aided his first return game and he's breaking serve more than he ever did. Yeah his two-handed backhand is running on fumes, but nobody has really exposed it. If Djokovic and Murray can't do it, nobody will. Broke wrist Delpo with a little more stamina is going to be a force in the slams.

Nadal's serve is washed up, but he's had that wrist issue. With his best return game and a better wrist/serve he may be no joke this Fall.

It's a PEAK HARD COURT RETURN ERA and PEAK HARD COURT GAMES WON ERA, but that does not mean this is the best hard court tennis ever. It is what it is. A big server like Sampras with a respectable return game is still the type of player most likely to see success in slams and big serving Stanimal beat 3 of these guys in route to the US Open.

With Fed returning next year and Pouille, Zverev, Thiem, and Kyrgios making forays into the top ten 2017 and the rest of this year should be very interesting tennis. Better than watching Pete servebot.

 

[Red Rick]

Whatever suits your boat. Maybe you should actually watch tennis, because in the land of the blind, one-eyed is king.

 

[abmk]

Right now Delpo, Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal have won 60% of their hard court games so far in 2016.

Per @Gary Duane this has never happened before. When you go back to the 90s, it didn't happen very often, maybe 8 times in the DECADE. Suddenly Agassi and Hewitt did it in 2003. Now we have 4 times in one year. All without Federer no less.

This unprecedented dominance is occuring with PEAK GOAT returning by several players so far in 2016 on hard courts:
Rafael Nadal 43.5%
Andy Murray 43.2%
Juan Martin del Potro 39.7%
Novak Djokovic 37.2%
Gael Monfils 32.7%

For comparison sake lets look for some better numbers for an entire year. Djokovic2011 was 41%. Murray2009 led with 35%. Djokovic and Murray are the career leaders in this stat at 33%. Djokovic has also done 37% before.

We know from study that the most dominant games won numbers above 60% occur in slams where the winner was dominating on return. This allows for more lopsided scores. GOAT HARD COURT RETURN ERA is causing a PEAK HARD COURT YEAR.


Murray is in the hunt for the PEAK GOAT of hard court returning. We see that Delpo in his limited play has been breaking serve all too well and his slice returning appears to be the area of improvement. Nadal's general play is close, his serve is just abhorent as his return points numbers are quite good this year.

With this veteran return performance and the NextGen hitting hard this Fall its going to be an epic end to the year. Will Nadal make WTF? Or will Nadal somehow dominate and win the whole thing with an improved service. GOAT END OF SEASON coming for 2016.

Like I've said before, those stats are utter non-sense..

I calculated for nadal on HC -- match by match ...

(minus the Olympics ) -- all stats from ATP site ( individual match wise ) :

service games : 182/228 = 79.82%
return games : 75/223 = 33.63%
total games : 257/451 = 56.98%

including Olympics ( got the stats from Olympics site ) :

service games : 237/298 = 79.53%
return games : 98/296 = 33.1%
total games : 335/594 = 56.39%

How the hell did you get 43.5% for nadal on the return on HC? Its 33.1% .

 

[Meles]

Whatever suits your boat. Maybe you should actually watch tennis, because in the land of the blind, one-eyed is king.

Haha. Watching it as you well know. This is one of the most interesting times ever with the strong young talent about to take over the top ten (which you know also.) We had Murray and Djokovic arriving on the scene around the same time, but now we have four players knocking on the door to keep it interesting.

 

[Sartorius]

 

[JonnyMac]

Broken Wrist DelPo, Average Playing Wawrinka, Past prime Murray, Washed up Nadal.. PEAK ERA!!!!

Murray never had a prime ! BIN MAN BUM !

 

[Meles]

Like I've said before, those stats are utter non-sense..

I calculated for nadal on HC -- match by match ...

(minus the Olympics ) -- all stats from ATP site ( individual match wise ) :

service games : 182/228 = 79.82%
return games : 75/223 = 33.63%
total games : 257/451 = 56.98%

including Olympics ( got the stats from Olympics site ) :

service games : 237/298 = 79.53%
return games : 98/296 = 33.1%
total games : 335/594 = 56.39%

How the hell did you get 43.5% for nadal on the return on HC? Its 33.1% .

Kudos abmk.

Ugh. Checked Delpo's numbers and they looked good as discussed above. The games numbers are from the ATP site.

They have Nadal at 97/223 for hard courts return games. 182 out of 228 on serve games.

Ugh I see the issue. (@Gary Duane ) Those idiots on the ATP website appear to have added the return games won from the Olympics with out adding anything to the denominator.

I'd thought they'd only skip both, so when I checked Delpo's return games won it was accurate. It appears the ATP site does not reflect the Olympic serving data whatsover, so my check to make sure both denominators matched failed.

The ATP data is trashed for 2016. UGH.

PEAK ERA FOR WRONG ATP WEBSITE DATA.

I'll have to ponder if there is an easy way to fix this data. Not seeing easy games data on tennis abstract.....

 

[Red Rick]

Ugh. Checked Delpo's numbers and they looked good as discussed above. The games numbers are from the ATP site.

They have Nadal at 97/223 for hard courts return games. 182 out of 228 on serve games.

Ugh I see the issue. (@Gary Duane ) Those idiots on the ATP website appear to have added the return games won from the Olympics with out adding anything to the denominator.

I'd thought they'd only skip both, so when I checked Delpo's return games won it was accurate. It appears the ATP site does not reflect the Olympic serving data whatsover, so my check to make sure both denominators matched failed.

The ATP data is trashed for 2016. UGH.

PEAK ERA FOR WRONG ATP WEBSITE DATA.

So they have Rafa at about 451 games played this year on HC? What could possibly be wrong here.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Broken Wrist DelPo, Average Playing Wawrinka, Past prime Murray, Washed up Nadal.. PEAK ERA!!!!

80 year old Fed...

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Today isn't great all, Jesus Christ... I don't care about stats, but I haven't seen tennis this bad since 1999 or 1998..

 

[metsman]

Kudos abmk.

Ugh. Checked Delpo's numbers and they looked good as discussed above. The games numbers are from the ATP site.

They have Nadal at 97/223 for hard courts return games. 182 out of 228 on serve games.

Ugh I see the issue. (@Gary Duane ) Those idiots on the ATP website appear to have added the return games won from the Olympics with out adding anything to the denominator.

I'd thought they'd only skip both, so when I checked Delpo's return games won it was accurate. It appears the ATP site does not reflect the Olympic serving data whatsover, so my check to make sure both denominators matched failed.

The ATP data is trashed for 2016. UGH.

PEAK ERA FOR WRONG ATP WEBSITE DATA.

I'll have to ponder if there is an easy way to fix this data. Not seeing easy games data on tennis abstract.....

told you

 

[metsman]

Today isn't great all, Jesus Christ... I don't care about stats, but I haven't seen tennis this bad since 1999 or 1998..

99 was a good year...96-98 were bad

 

[TheFifthSet]

Delpo has been cherry picking his events so his early run in Memphis helps him. Delpo is the easiest one to hand add up. I am clerically challenged so I like to automate things to eliminate any errors so not my thing; I did the data checks mentioned in the post above.

JMDP didn't play Memphis this year.

I added up his games w-l on HC in 2016, it was 294-241 (54.9%)....will count up Nadal's later but I suspect he's also well below 60%

Edit: nvm the one and only @abmk already did the number crunching for Nads!

 

[Meles]

@abmk How did you do the serve game and return game data by hand?

It looks like the easiest thing to do is manually add up breaks of serve and subtract that from the raw ATP data and just throw out the Olympics.

 

[Meles]

JMDP didn't play Memphis this year.

I added up his games w-l on HC in 2016, it was 294-241 (54.9%)....will count up Nadal's later but I suspect he's also well below 60%

Thanks for doing this.

yes. ABMK did Nadal in detail and the ATP data is diabolicaly wrong; they added in breaks of serve from olympics, but not return games or any serve game data. See above for details and how my check failed. Ugh.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

99 was a good year...96-98 were bad

Eh.. '99 was alright, only because Agassi was playing his career-best tennis. Sampras wasn't 100% although that Wimbledon was one of the best of the last 15-20 years IMO.

Today really does bring back vibes of 1998 or something though.

 

[Meles]

Today isn't great all, Jesus Christ... I don't care about stats, but I haven't seen tennis this bad since 1999 or 1998..

Garbage in, garbage out.

Ugh. LOL.

 

[Meles]

So they have Rafa at about 451 games played this year on HC? What could possibly be wrong here.

Should have gone with original title idea which was PEAK ERA danger!, would have been more appropriate for this thread. editting OP.

 

[abmk]

Kudos abmk.

Ugh. Checked Delpo's numbers and they looked good as discussed above. The games numbers are from the ATP site.

They have Nadal at 97/223 for hard courts return games. 182 out of 228 on serve games.

Ugh I see the issue. (@Gary Duane ) Those idiots on the ATP website appear to have added the return games won from the Olympics with out adding anything to the denominator.

I'd thought they'd only skip both, so when I checked Delpo's return games won it was accurate. It appears the ATP site does not reflect the Olympic serving data whatsover, so my check to make sure both denominators matched failed.

The ATP data is trashed for 2016. UGH.

PEAK ERA FOR WRONG ATP WEBSITE DATA.

I'll have to ponder if there is an easy way to fix this data. Not seeing easy games data on tennis abstract.....

and no, delpo's return games is wrong as well :
44/172 ( excluding the Olympics ) : 25.58%

72/259 (including the Olympics ) : 27.8%


service games :

152/177 (excluding Olympics) : 85.87%
222/266 : 83.45%


games won :

minus Olympics : 196/349 = 56.16%
294/525 : 56%

Like I said, eye test ....delpo has been very good on service games this year, but not that great on the return games ..

 

[abmk]

and @Meles , I can definitely assure you that Murray is not at 43.2% ...djoko's returning was clearly better in 2011 and he "only" reached 41% on HC.

career-wise, he's ahead by a bit ( 33 to 32.6) , but he hasn't reached the heights/peaks of djoko 11.

 

[Meles]

and @Meles , I can definitely assure you that Murray is not at 43.2% ...djoko's returning was clearly better in 2011 and he "only" reached 41% on HC.

career-wise, he's ahead by a bit ( 33 to 32.6) , but he hasn't reached the heights/peaks of djoko 11.

Gary and I will correct at the end of the year. Murray is not anywhere near 41%, I concur.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Murray never had a prime ! BIN MAN BUM !

Turning up for his matches after 24 hour Buckfast sessions, I'm surprised he has done as well as he has.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

edit: EVERYTHING IN THE ORIGINAL OP BELOW IS COMPLETELY WRONG. The ATP site has partially entered Olympics data for the year which has destroyed all of their statistics. For return games they've added the games won by the returner to their totals without adding anything to the total number of return games played. Previously, I identified that they completely ommitted the return points data from the Olympics, but did add the serve data. However, the 2nd serve points won data was incorrect because the ATP did not count double faults as 2nd serve attempts. 2016 ATP Data is completely wrong unless it is strictly filtered for just clay or grass court events.

Right now Delpo, Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal have won 60% of their hard court games so far in 2016.

Per @Gary Duane this has never happened before. When you go back to the 90s, it didn't happen very often, maybe 8 times in the DECADE. Suddenly Agassi and Hewitt did it in 2003. Now we have 4 times in one year. All without Federer no less.

This unprecedented dominance is occuring with PEAK GOAT returning by several players so far in 2016 on hard courts:
Rafael Nadal 43.5%
Andy Murray 43.2%
Juan Martin del Potro 39.7%
Novak Djokovic 37.2%
Gael Monfils 32.7%

For comparison sake lets look for some better numbers for an entire year. Djokovic2011 was 41%. Murray2009 led with 35%. Djokovic and Murray are the career leaders in this stat at 33%. Djokovic has also done 37% before.

We know from study that the most dominant games won numbers above 60% occur in slams where the winner was dominating on return. This allows for more lopsided scores. GOAT HARD COURT RETURN ERA is causing a PEAK HARD COURT YEAR.


Murray is in the hunt for the PEAK GOAT of hard court returning. We see that Delpo in his limited play has been breaking serve all too well and his slice returning appears to be the area of improvement. Nadal's general play is close, his serve is just abhorent as his return points numbers are quite good this year.

With this veteran return performance and the NextGen hitting hard this Fall its going to be an epic end to the year. Will Nadal make WTF? Or will Nadal somehow dominate and win the whole thing with an improved service. GOAT END OF SEASON coming for 2016.

 

[Gary Duane]

Ugh I see the issue. (@Gary Duane ) Those idiots on the ATP website appear to have added the return games won from the Olympics with out adding anything to the denominator.

I'd thought they'd only skip both, so when I checked Delpo's return games won it was accurate. It appears the ATP site does not reflect the Olympic serving data whatsover, so my check to make sure both denominators matched failed.

The ATP data is trashed for 2016. UGH.

PEAK ERA FOR WRONG ATP WEBSITE DATA.

I'll have to ponder if there is an easy way to fix this data. Not seeing easy games data on tennis abstract.....

If it's too good to be true, it's screwed up.

When you look and see that Novak is shown to be at around 37% of return games won, which is high even for him, and three guys are winning a higher % of games, you know it is screwed up. I knew it was wrong. I just didn't know what.

I can't even think about this tonight. We have a hurricane headed right for us. Wilma nearly destroyed our place 10 years ago.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

If it's too good to be true, it's screwed up.

When you look and see that Novak is shown to be at around 37% of return games won, which is high even for him, and three guys are winning a higher % of games, you know it is screwed up. I knew it was wrong. I just didn't know what.

I can't even think about this tonight. We have a hurricane headed right for us. Wilma nearly destroyed our place 10 years ago.

My sincere best wishes, friend.

 

[JonnyMac]

Gary and I will correct at the end of the year. Murray is not anywhere near 41%, I concur.

Told you he was useless - no one listens.

I bet he's NOT even world number 37...They just cocked up the figures !

I knew it ! He's never won the AO twice like they said he had !

 

[TheFifthSet]

I can't even think about this tonight. We have a hurricane headed right for us. Wilma nearly destroyed our place 10 years ago.

Best of luck to you and your family, stay safe bro!

 

[Gary Duane]

Best of luck to you and your family, stay safe bro!

Thanks, but if there is trouble it will happen in a few more days. So far only rain bands. About 48 to 72 hours. This thing is going to hit someone really hard.

 

[Bender]

I can't even think about this tonight. We have a hurricane headed right for us. Wilma nearly destroyed our place 10 years ago.

Stay safe, mate.

 

[Gary Duane]

Told you he was useless - no one listens.

I bet he's NOT even world number 37...They just cocked up the figures !

I knew it ! He's never won the AO twice like they said he had !

@Meles
It will partially work it's way out by the end of the year, then I'll beg for correct info from Meles, the guru here at correcting wrong information.

I knew something was really wrong because it takes a long time for stats to change, but suddenly Murray jumped way up, and so did Nadal. Both players put a lot of emphasis on the Olympics. Then when I saw DelPo go through the roof, it became really clear.

 

[Gary Duane]

Stay safe, mate.

Thanks.

 

[abmk]

I can't even think about this tonight. We have a hurricane headed right for us. Wilma nearly destroyed our place 10 years ago.

Take care. Hope all will be fine.

 

[Gary Duane]

Take care. Hope all will be fine.

Thanks.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Thanks, but if there is trouble it will happen in a few more days. So far only rain bands. About 48 to 72 hours. This thing is going to hit someone really hard.

Can only imagine :/ are you packing up and leaving or staying put?

 

[Gary Duane]

Can only imagine :/ are you packing up and leaving or staying put?

Staying put. But it's going to hit people to the north of us a lot worse, most likely.

 

[VarmasPermo]

PED ERA.
Match Fixing ERA.

 

[NatF]

Eh.. '99 was alright, only because Agassi was playing his career-best tennis. Sampras wasn't 100% although that Wimbledon was one of the best of the last 15-20 years IMO.

Today really does bring back vibes of 1998 or something though.

1995 was Agassi's best tennis quite clearly IMO. He was good in 1999 as well of course but nothing tops 1995 for AA.

If it's too good to be true, it's screwed up.

When you look and see that Novak is shown to be at around 37% of return games won, which is high even for him, and three guys are winning a higher % of games, you know it is screwed up. I knew it was wrong. I just didn't know what.

I can't even think about this tonight. We have a hurricane headed right for us. Wilma nearly destroyed our place 10 years ago.

Stay safe buddy.