IowaGuy hypothesis: slowing courts and lack of S&V on 2nd serve = less incentive to hit killer 2nd serve. This is primary reason that DF in 1980's/1990's were higher than in today's era.
My data simply shows that Pete and Roger have a different way of playing. I don't know if it reflects differences in the two eras. I probably should add when all these players broke into the ATP, to give a better idea where they belong. I'm eyeballing it right now, probably not a good idea.
At this moment I'm thinking simply about one factor: How many times per game do these guys DF?
In the early 80s it was a LOT more. Ratio of aces/DFs is lower, without any doubt.
This is not pretty, but it gets at this one factor:
player DF/g%
Nadal 0.132
Federer 0.149
Bruguera 0.160
Chang 0.160
Roddick 0.161
Costa 0.170
Djokovic 0.179
Ferrero 0.182
Safin 0.184
DelPo 0.196
Kuerten 0.197
Agassi 0.201
Murray 0.201
Muster 0.202
Courier 0.206
Moya 0.206
Wawrinka 0.206
Lendl 0.217
Cilic 0.220
T. Johansson 0.232
Gaudio 0.257
Krajicek 0.282
Sampras 0.282
Hewitt 0.283
Edberg 0.299
Stich 0.312
Kafelnikov 0.329
Becker 0.368
Korda 0.379
Ivanisevic 0.386
The whole spread is from around .13 to .38, and I'm not sure if we are seeing something connected to era or to play style - or both?
Nadal is right at the top, Federer very close to the top, Sampras pretty far down the list. I'm guessing Fed would still DF less in the 90s, and Sampras would DF more today. Different personality, different style of play.
When we look at what I'm counting as true free points, where either it's an ace or a DF, when subtracting DFs from aces and dividing by games, Sampras is 4th on the list of slam winners. Fed is 10th.
If you DF a lot, that number goes down. Lots of aces, obviously it goes up. If you DF more per game, but your aces per game are very high (Sampras), you're doing fine. And if some of those DFs are tactical, no problem.
I do think that it's important that of all slam winners Roddick is absolutely at the top of this list, with a net free point in .75% of all games. I also think it's important that Fed and Sampras, of the top 10 guys, are the shortest guys, easily.
Imagine you're playing Wimbledon in 1985. It's your 2nd serve. Either you come in yourself (and face a pretty good return since they're geared up for your 2nd serve), or hit a floaty 2nd serve where your opponent is likely to try to come in. This gives an incentive to hit a hell of a 2nd serve. In fact, many 2nd serves at Wimbledon were slices (which were followed to the net), which is not nearly as common when watching today's tennis.
Now imagine your'e playing the French open in 2018. Court is slow as hell. Your 2nd serve is merely the first shot of a 25+ shot rally, and is unlikely to be attacked unless you're playing a very top player. So you simply hit a real spinny, slow 2nd serve which starts the point in a neutral position. Your biggest incentive is not to miss the 2nd serve, since it's unlikely to be attacked.
Here I'd like to look at clay vs. grass. I can give you some data on that later, but I'll tell you already that aces are highest on grass, game% is highest on grass, ratio of aces/DFs is highest on grass. DFs per game will not change much, but with aces going down, and games going down, the big picture is pretty obvious.
How might we test this hypothesis with the data that is available? I think an easy test is compare DF at Wimbledon 1980-2000 with DF at French Open 1980-2000. Another test might be to test the speed difference between 1st and 2nd serve from the different eras. My hypothesis would be that the difference between 1st and 2nd serve in 1980-2000 (attacking tennis) is likely closer than in today's era where we commonly see a huge 1st serve but slow, spinny 2nd serves (defensive tennis).
All interesting ideas, but you'd have to find the data.
So, I think it is likely that it's the tactics, not the equipment, that are responsible for the trend you're seeing in Aces/DF. Because, as you said earlier, the aces are roughly staying the same. It's the DF that are decreasing. But, this can be (possibly) explained by the less aggressive 2nd serves in today's defensive tennis vs. the aggressive 2nd serves used in 1980's/1990's attacking tennis.
I think it's both, because there is a huge difference between the early 80s and the 90s, but there was a lot of attacking tennis in both eras.
Not so much difference between the 90s and today, but probably some.