Players who do not "pick a side" when defending a short sitter do not understand the very essence of statistical tennis

E46luver

Professional
Opponent has a floater at the net.

Lower level player stays in the middle,
hoping to have a chance at still winning every point by reacting,
and not accepting deliberate loss of point by picking the wrong side.
Let's agree that he wins 0% of these points.

Statistical minded player picks a side, hoping to guess 50% and have a real chance
Let's agree that he wins some of the points when he correctly guesses the side.

Picking a side has a better expected value than hoping to react late.

I believe not picking a side is a hallmark of the tactical statistically savvy big picture player.
At what NTRP level do you see players "resign" (accept 50% possibility of 100% chance of losing the point) and pick a side?
 
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Sir Weed

Professional
There's creativity or the lack thereof from beginners to professionals, so I'm really not sure if it has to do with levels. Maybe has more to do with mentality than level of play? Heck, I don't know.
A football player who is a beginner at tennis can probably pull off a fake since he's aware of many things that are going on in a game situation. Footballers can pick up plenty of information at a given time.
 

Sir Weed

Professional
Let's assume we have two players at a slightly advanced level, they're twins and have the exact same skills. One player (A) is being introduced to the idea of picking a side (hell, let's have player A study mathematics) while the other one (B) acquires the skill to juggle three balls (player A can't), juggles every day but nobody tells her/him about picking sides. Okay, now let's make a study with 5000 twins that play tennis at an advanced level...

Essentially: time for a beer.

Cheers.
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
Let's assume we have two players at a slightly advanced level, they're twins and have the exact same skills. One player (A) is being introduced to the idea of picking a side (hell, let's have player A study mathematics) while the other one (B) acquires the skill to juggle three balls (player A can't), juggles every day but nobody tells her/him about picking sides. Okay, now let's make a study with 5000 twins that play tennis at an advanced level...

Essentially: time for a beer.

Cheers.
Does player B become expert in sleight-of-hand juggling moves (fakes)?
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
Maybe. But not much going on in beer pong. Beer pong is Golf (which may be slightly more technical).
I have no experience with beer pong, but I’m not very good at golf, darts, or shooting free throws, so I assume I would probably be bad at beer pong.
 

Dartagnan64

G.O.A.T.
I have always tried to guess where the opponent is going. Most players at my level have tells. Better players can set up one way then go the other. My general rule is to always go towards open court. If I'm in the middle and can't tell, I move to take away the inside-in shot and make him hit inside out which is technically harder for most players.
 

rrortiz5

Rookie
What about players who play at lower levels (4.0) and are fast enough to chase down either side from the middle?
 

Morch Us

Professional
Are you not considering the possibility to hit through the middle ? How about a drop shot to the middle ?

Statistical minded player picks a side, hoping to guess 50% and have a real chance
Let's agree that he wins some of the points when he correctly guesses the side.
 

vex

Legend
Opponent has a floater at the net.

Lower level player stays in the middle,
hoping to have a chance at still winning every point by reacting,
and not accepting deliberate loss of point by picking the wrong side.
Let's agree that he wins 0% of these points.

Statistical minded player picks a side, hoping to guess 50% and have a real chance
Let's agree that he wins some of the points when he correctly guesses the side.

Picking a side has a better expected value than hoping to react late.

I believe not picking a side is a hallmark of the tactical statistically savvy big picture player.
At what NTRP level do you see players "resign" (accept 50% possibility of 100% chance of losing the point) and pick a side?
Your numbers are way off but yes the correct play is a delayed commitment to cover cross court 80% of the time and DTL 20%. Defend the easy finish, force them to hit the harder DTL shot, and occasional surprise them by covering DTL at the last second.
 

onehandbh

Legend
Against high level players, you should sprint to a small 1x1 meter square next to the net and bordering one of the sidelines.

By employing this tactic you will be taking away one of their options, a dropshot near the sideline.
 

ptuanminh

Hall of Fame
Explain please, or link to something that explains what you mean?
I might learn something in this thread after all.
J
Haha it was a joke. I am pretty sure not picking a side does not result in absolute 0% of getting the ball back.
However, if you are interested in the statistics, you can check this out. It says if you throw a tennis ball at the wall, there is a non-zero probability that it will go through the wall. :cool: crazy physics people.
 

J011yroger

Talk Tennis Guru
Haha it was a joke. I am pretty sure not picking a side does not result in absolute 0% of getting the ball back.
However, if you are interested in the statistics, you can check this out. It says if you throw a tennis ball at the wall, there is a non-zero probability that it will go through the wall. :cool: crazy physics people.
Damn, you got me excited.

J
 

Goof

Professional
Pick a side early and start going there but half-assedly while preparing yourself mentally and physically for sprinting to the OTHER side. You'd be surprised how often this gets me a very good look at a running pass (gotta go for broke on it though as you'll be waaay out of position after it).
 

a12345

Professional
If you stay in the middle, there maybe more chance your opponent hits down the sides, and because theyre aiming for the sides there maybe more chance they hit it out due to the tighter angles.

On the flip side, if you had an easy shot where would you least like your opponent to stand?
 

Curiosity

Professional
Explain please, or link to something that explains what you mean?
I might learn something in this thread after all.
J
Since you're measuring a random variabe (wins the point or not, you don't know in advance), and using a large enough sample (number of tries) to make the little experiment yield to mathematics, the rules of probability require by convention (and for more complicated mathematical reasons), that the result must be between 0 and 1, which are the analytic limits for the series of results, limits which should never be reached if there is any variability whatever in the player's (or other experiment's) performance. If, for example,you know that a given player will never lose the point (or always lose it) there really is no randomness to the event...and therefore you're not actually running an experiment, but just running a perfectly reliable machine. Think of the number between 0 and 1, given as a two-digit decimal, as a percentage: Example: an N100 filtering face mask means it 100% of the time stops particles larger than 0,3 micrometers (the smallest Corona Virus particles as measured in the air test at 0.5 micrometers due to moisture, mucus, etc.) -the manufacture will call it 99.9% in the small print: They won't dare alleged absolute certainty. An N95 mask doesn't require "back off" small print. Wiki "Probability" states it the usual way:
"Probability is a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true. Probability is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty."
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
Since you're measuring a random variabe (wins the point or not, you don't know in advance), and using a large enough sample (number of tries) to make the little experiment yield to mathematics, the rules of probability require by convention (and for more complicated mathematical reasons), that the result must be between 0 and 1, which are the analytic limits for the series of results, limits which should never be reached if there is any variability whatever in the player's (or other experiment's) performance. If, for example,you know that a given player will never lose the point (or always lose it) there really is no randomness to the event...and therefore you're not actually running an experiment, but just running a perfectly reliable machine. Think of the number between 0 and 1, given as a two-digit decimal, as a percentage: Example: an N100 filtering face mask means it 100% of the time stops particles larger than 0,3 micrometers (the smallest Corona Virus particles as measured in the air test at 0.5 micrometers due to moisture, mucus, etc.) -the manufacture will call it 99.9% in the small print: They won't dare alleged absolute certainty. An N95 mask doesn't require "back off" small print. Wiki "Probability" states it the usual way:
"Probability is a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true. Probability is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty."
Ok. So now that we’ve narrowed the probability of success down to somewhere in the range between 0 and 1, which way should I move?
 
D

Deleted member 768841

Guest
Ha ha, moonball goes bounce bounce.
 
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3loudboys

Legend
There's creativity or the lack thereof from beginners to professionals, so I'm really not sure if it has to do with levels. Maybe has more to do with mentality than level of play? Heck, I don't know.
Me neither

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3loudboys

Legend
A football player who is a beginner at tennis can probably pull off a fake since he's aware of many things that are going on in a game situation. Footballers can pick up plenty of information at a given time.
100% in football there is so much more awareness of the dummy or the shimmy. Principals easily applied to tennis.

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3loudboys

Legend
Let's assume we have two players at a slightly advanced level, they're twins and have the exact same skills. One player (A) is being introduced to the idea of picking a side (hell, let's have player A study mathematics) while the other one (B) acquires the skill to juggle three balls (player A can't), juggles every day but nobody tells her/him about picking sides. Okay, now let's make a study with 5000 twins that play tennis at an advanced level...

Essentially: time for a beer.

Cheers.
Not sure I understood that but did enjoy a good laugh. Hmmm beer

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Curiosity

Professional
Ok. So now that we’ve narrowed the probability of success down to somewhere in the range between 0 and 1, which way should I move?
Federer doesn't have a fixed answer, but you expect me to? Depends on the opponent and your own skills. You're placing a bet each time you make the choice. You're also taking into account your own ability. Some players may be able to guess the opponent will go to your left, but your own percentage of success may be much lower on that side. I'd just push the opponent to make the more difficult shot: Which that is depends on the opponent, doesn't it?
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
Federer doesn't have a fixed answer, but you expect me to? Depends on the opponent and your own skills. You're placing a bet each time you make the choice. You're also taking into account your own ability. Some players may be able to guess the opponent will go to your left, but your own percentage of success may be much lower on that side. I'd just push the opponent to make the more difficult shot: Which that is depends on the opponent, doesn't it?
Solid answer. I expect no less from a man who is good at burpees.
 
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