Point system - OVERHAUL

#10 Bublik loses to #80 Struff
#8 Medvedev loses to #90 Walton
#46 Cilic loses to #318 Kouame - happy about this
#33 Griekspoor loses to #104 Arnaldi
#39 Shapovalov loses to #114 Faria
#38 Cocciaretto loses to #117 Korneeva
#5 Pegula loses to #83 Birrell

Average ranking difference = 103.9

Been a great day again
 
Nalbandian vs Bublik - both top 10 players

How does a system allow someone like Bublik to be inside the top 10 at all? I know why, you dont have to tell me.

Go on Wikipedia and compare the two slam results between players. Unbelievable and laughable.
 
Used to be you could take advantage of a players backhand or their second serve but now technology and training have allowed EVERY PLAYER to possess monster power from both wings that is consistent. I mean...watch unseeded players drilling two handers down the line. That used to just be the stuff of Djokovic legend .... but now many players have these shots. I also feel that many players dont have a pattern or a process they use during points....you can see they just go for the corners or hit big up the middle. No variety....no cat and mouse....just bludgeoning rallies waiting for a miss or a sitter.
 
gqnelly said:
Used to be you could take advantage of a players backhand or their second serve but now technology and training have allowed EVERY PLAYER to possess monster power from both wings that is consistent. I mean...watch unseeded players drilling two handers down the line. That used to just be the stuff of Djokovic legend .... but now many players have these shots. I also feel that many players dont have a pattern or a process they use during points....you can see they just go for the corners or hit big up the middle. No variety....no cat and mouse....just bludgeoning rallies waiting for a miss or a sitter.
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Good points.

The point construction from the tour now in general is reflects two things 1) Lack of consistency 2) Poor point formation

De Minaur is good at point construction but will hit amateur club level shots into the net

Bublik can hit glorious single handed passing shots but gets bored of rallying or doesnt want to move to the ball.

Jodar is someone, given he hasnt reached consistent levels yet, very clinical and should be the opposite of these two clowns
 
MrFlip said:
Nalbandian vs Bublik - both top 10 players

How does a system allow someone like Bublik to be inside the top 10 at all? I know why, you dont have to tell me.

Go on Wikipedia and compare the two slam results between players. Unbelievable and laughable.
Click to expand...
We shouldn’t hate on Bublik for being a Bo3 specialist. They fill a valuable niche in the tennis ecosystem.
 

'You have to understand. Most people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured and so hopelessly dependent on the system that they will fight to protect it​

 
#2 Rybakina loses to #55 Starodubtseva
#1 Sinner loses to #56 J Cerundolo
#31 Ostapenko loses to #72 Linette
#5 Shelton loses to #62 Collignon
#30 Li loses to #92 Parry
#21 Mertens loses to #114 Chwalinska
 
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#4 Felix loses to #76 Majchrzak
#44 Bergs loses to #233 Mccabe
#22 Mertens loses to #85 Ruse
#33 Humbert loses to #99 Bonzi
 
MrFlip said:
#4 Felix loses to #76 Majchrzak
#44 Bergs loses to #233 Mccabe
#22 Mertens loses to #85 Ruse
#33 Humbert loses to #99 Bonzi
Click to expand...

Rankings below #3 at the moment mean very little other than for seeding purposes. With 2 slams to be played there should be plenty of changes to the top 10 in the next 3 months.
 
reaper said:
Rankings below #3 at the moment mean very little other than for seeding purposes. With 2 slams to be played there should be plenty of changes to the top 10 in the next 3 months.
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Sure, grass is bound to have bigger upsets but these losses are pretty standard now.
 
MrFlip said:
....wait for it......

#6 De Minaur loses to #76 Majchrzak
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Why are your recent posts in this thread so boring? All you are doing is listing the results. We all follow tennis and thus know the results. What we need from you is some description of how we should assess these results. Here are a few adjectives to add to your listing of upsets going forward:

Ludicrous
Ridiculous
Laughable
Absurd
Shameful
Embarrassing
Horrible
Immoral
Criminal

And, of course, the OG but still the GOAT:

OBSCENE!
 
Here's a good one to get the ball rolling close to Wimbledon

#35 Arnaldi loses to #293 Hussey LOL LOL

Dont give me the injury nonsense
 
MrFlip said:
Here's a good one to get the ball rolling close to Wimbledon

#35 Arnaldi loses to #293 Hussey LOL LOL

Dont give me the injury nonsense
Click to expand...

Serious question: do you think they should have surface rankings? Arnaldi is predictably rubbish on grass but as we just saw at Roland Garros he can be good on clay. Ruud has never won a match at Wimbledon but has made two RG finals and another semi-final. Even in today’s game, there might be a case for ranking them both much lower on grass and higher on clay.
 
helterskelter said:
Serious question: do you think they should have surface rankings? Arnaldi is predictably rubbish on grass but as we just saw at Roland Garros he can be good on clay. Ruud has never won a match at Wimbledon but has made two RG finals and another semi-final. Even in today’s game, there might be a case for ranking them both much lower on grass and higher on clay.
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Absolutely. Anything to show a "truer" ranking.
 
I looked at upset rate in detail over time. I got the following:

Top-20 player losing to a sub-100 player (percentage of meetings)
(ATP, 5-yr periods)

1985-89 ------------- 12.5%
1990-94 ------------------ 18.0%
1995-99 -------------------- 19.5%
2000-04 ----------------- 17.0%
2005-09 --------------- 14.8%
2010-14 -------------- 14.2%
2015-19 ------------------ 18.3%
2020-24 ------------------- 18.9%

Avg 16.5%, n = 127-261
Data: Jeff Sackmann tennis_atp GitHub
 
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And then, using two alternative ranking systems. One is standard Elo (Sackmann variant), and another is a custom metric that I had lying around from a while ago which unlike Elo is margin-aware.

Top 20 losing to sub-100 player, percentage rate (lower means better predictor)

Period----| ATP--| Elo---| Custom
1985-89 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 13.3
1990-94 | 18.0 | 17.1 | 17.7
1995-99 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 18.4
2000-04 | 17.0 | 17.1 | 16.5
2005-09 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 13.8
2010-14 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 12.2
2015-19 | 18.3 | 16.8 | 16.6
2020-24 | 18.9 | 17.3 | 15.8
Average | 16.5 | 15.9 | 15.5

So in conclusion, yes, there were indeed some 15-20% fewer upsets 10-15 years ago (although the upset rate in the nineties was similar to what it is now), and Elo and to a slightly greater extent the custom metric would result in fewer upsets as a ranking systems (that is, they are better predictors of wins). But the difference is fairly marginal.
 
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*Cracks fingers*

#5 Shelton loses to # 140 Virtanen
#31 Vekic loses to #102 Krueger
#94 Tomljanovic loses to #545 Bolkvadze
#8 Svitolina loses to #72 Snigur
#21 Cerundolo loses to #44 Munar - Cerundolo fresh from winning Queens and Munar fresh from doing absolutely jack for the past few months
#60 Landaluce loses to #200 Kwon
#11 Ruud loses to #96 Hurkacz
#12 Rublev loses to #132 Safiulin aka Jude Law
#22 Chwalinska loses to #164 Sawangkaew

Not terrible, not great.

The number of 5 set matches for mens and 3 set matches for women's top seeds is on par with last year, maybe higher.
 
MrFlip said:
*Cracks fingers*

#5 Shelton loses to # 140 Virtanen
#31 Vekic loses to #102 Krueger
#94 Tomljanovic loses to #545 Bolkvadze
#8 Svitolina loses to #72 Snigur
#21 Cerundolo loses to #44 Munar - Cerundolo fresh from winning Queens and Munar fresh from doing absolutely jack for the past few months
#60 Landaluce loses to #200 Kwon
#11 Ruud loses to #96 Hurkacz
#12 Rublev loses to #132 Safiulin aka Jude Law
#22 Chwalinska loses to #164 Sawangkaew

Not terrible, not great.

The number of 5 set matches for mens and 3 set matches for women's top seeds is on par with last year, maybe higher.
Click to expand...

If matches simply went according to ranking nobody's ranking, at least among seeded players, would ever change
 
reaper said:
If matches simply went according to ranking nobody's ranking, at least among seeded players, would ever change
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Deep but.... upsets according to rank e.g. not 70 ranking point differences which have been increasing lately.

Im all for lower ranked players beating higher ranked.
 
Lets see who rushes to defend this one.....

#27 Fonseca loses to #132 Safiulun - not R1 or R2, but R3 after Safiulun has played three 5-set matches back-to-back-to-back

What's the excuse now? "Oh hes young, give him time" ....... "Upsets happen" ......

This is beyond just a journeyman catching fire. The tour is so bad, it allows for this to happen.
 
I've been waiting for this one :)

#26 Jodar loses to #151 Mochizuki - Jodar cant be tired considering the tennis Mochizuki played as well prior to this match
#25 Paul loses to #96 Hurkacz - this isn't really surprising so I'm contradicting myself but the ranking difference still stands
#8 Medvedev loses to #74 Struff - was up in all sets and tanked....turning into quite the chucker now

Average ranking difference = 91.8......wild stuff
 
MrFlip said:
Lets see who rushes to defend this one.....

#27 Fonseca loses to #132 Safiulun - not R1 or R2, but R3 after Safiulun has played three 5-set matches back-to-back-to-back

What's the excuse now? "Oh hes young, give him time" ....... "Upsets happen" ......

This is beyond just a journeyman catching fire. The tour is so bad, it allows for this to happen.
Click to expand...

It is not the fault of the tour. It is the fault of the corrupt ranking system, which allows these obscene upsets.
 
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