Rublev has never won a set against Medvedev, huh? And Rublev looks bad since the MC final. He isn't playing like between late 2019- early 2021. He barely beat Paire and Monfils, 2 guys who aren't even top100 in the ATP Race. PCB is in much better form and he didn't exist today. Rublev's chances are about as high as Chardy against Djokovic.lol
Zverev-Tstisipas... Based on their last 3 matches, huge advantage for Zverev. Tsitsipas lost to Opelka, saved set point against Korda and lost sets to Sonego and Auger. If Zverev keeps this level it should be a quick 2-0. But Zverev also has tendance to self-destruct against Tsitsipas. I remember his epic choke in the 1st set in Beijing 2019. In the WTF 2019 he beat Nadal and Medvedev in 2 but only won 5 games against Tsitsipas. RG this year, the first 2 sets were awful, his level (from the R4 and QF) dropped massively in SF. Tsitsipas is clearly a bad matchup. So, maybe his old demons will resurface again. But still think he he wins and it'll show how much he has improved recently.
PS... I'd totally forgotten the Acapulco final. Zverev won 6-4 7-6 so maybe he's found the key, at least on HC..
Assuming it's Medvedev/Zverev right now it'd be 50-50. But maybe I'll lean towards 1 after the SF. If Zverev struggles a lot against Tsitsipas, he loses the final. If he takes the semi in 2 quick sets Imo he wins the final as well.