[POLL] Did Nadal win the 2022 Australian Open final or did Medvedev lose it?

[Winner Sinner]

Every now and then I watch this video of the "extended" highlights of that final;

And every time I always ask myself if Nadal won that final or Medvedev lost it.
Let's give you a little context.
After a first set dominated by Medvedev, the second set was on the edge of balance, in which Nadal himself had a few chances to win it before losing it in the tiebreak.
Third set, the watershed moment where Nadal, down 2-0 and 3-2 in the set, found himself down 0-40 on his serve.
From that moment I don't know what went through the Russian's head to make him constantly use the dropshot with disastrous results that allowed Nadal to regain all the momentum of the match.
But then to get to win it from a desperate situation you need to have the infinite resilience of the Majorcan, also because Medvedev, disastrous tactical management aside, until the end showed that he never gives up, so much so that he managed to break Nadal's serve at 5-4 in the fifth set where the Spaniard was serving for the match.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Med has shown time and time again he does not have it on the big stage. That said, he can beat you (Djoker USO Final) if you are not prepared.

So Evenly both.

 

[NatF]

Bit of both, Nadal should have won the second set so was a bit unlucky to be down 0-2 but Medvedev's level and shot selection at times was flat out not good enough.

 

[nolefam_2024]

There are ways to analyze this. Some haters will always blame loser and that is just a product of the world we live in. These no good 2 bit people will love to tear down someone far superior

 

[The Blond Blur]

RAFA should have won in 4. He was serving for the 2nd set and choked the break away. Then he choked the mini break away in the TB. He never should have been down 2-0 in the first place.

 

[Winner Sinner]

I think that many people do not fully understand the greatness of the big three, and for this reason they tend to mock the generations after them who clashed with the big three in their advanced age phase.
Hence the inability to contemplate how players in the prime of their life could have taken hard lessons from players so old in sporting terms, such as the generation of Medvedev, Zverev and Tsitsipas.

But we also saw with Alcaraz and Sinner, that is, two very likely future ATGs, what it means to challenge a 36/37 year old Djokovic.
Alcaraz lost the semifinal against Djokovic at Roland Garros 2023, at Cincinnati 2023, at the ATP Finals 2023, at the 2024 Olympics and at the recent Australian Open.
Sinner lost to Djokovic at Wimbledon 2023 and above all at the ATP Finals 2023, the latter scenario when he had already definitively exploded.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think that many people do not fully understand the greatness of the big three, and for this reason they tend to mock the generations after them who clashed with the big three in their advanced age phase.
Hence the inability to contemplate how players in the prime of their life could have taken hard lessons from players so old in sporting terms, such as the generation of Medvedev, Zverev and Tsitsipas.

But we also saw with Alcaraz and Sinner, that is, two very likely future ATGs, what it means to challenge a 36/37 year old Djokovic.
Alcaraz lost the semifinal against Djokovic at Roland Garros 2023, at Cincinnati 2023, at the ATP Finals 2023, at the 2024 Olympics and at the recent Australian Open.
Sinner lost to Djokovic at Wimbledon 2023 and above all at the ATP Finals 2023, the latter scenario when he had already definitively exploded.

Its not just that.
This world is very screwed up since start of social media.

Its far too easy to say everything sucks and get cheap likes than do analysis.

 

[Sport]

Fallacy of false dychotomy.

Nadal won it and Medvedev lost it, both occurred simultaneously.

 

[Hitman]

The notion that someone didn't win a slam when they were the one who lifted the trophy doesn't work for me.

I saw the AO 2022 trophy in person at his academy and it looked like he won it....

 

[TripleATeam]

The result couldn't have happened without both. If Medvedev kept his cool and maintained that 3rd set lead, had good shot selection, and took more calculated risks, then he could've closed it out there. And even without that he could've done more in sets 4 and 5 but he fell apart.

Of course that also wouldn't have been enough without Nadal locking down. Nadal knew how to play him and his game started clicking. Not to mention keeping a good head on his shoulders while being so far down.

Without both things happening simultaneously the result wouldn't have happened.

But that's the game. People play how they play, it's up to both players to win. One isn't more responsible for the outcome than the other. If this is to discredit Nadal, it's weak.

 

[Winner Sinner]

The notion that someone didn't win a slam when they were the one who lifted the trophy doesn't work for me.

I saw the AO 2022 trophy in person at his academy and it looked like he won it....

You understood the meaning of the thread, it is obvious that Nadal won that match, just as it is obvious that Medvedev also lost it.
The question is based on whether in the economy of that outcome there were more merits of Nadal or more demerits of Medvedev, also because we are not exactly talking about a final with a normal type of progression.
Nadal in that game of the third set at 0-40 was literally one step away from the abyss.

For example, when talking about the final of the 2020 US Open, it is usually said that in that outcome there were more demerits of the loser (Zverev) than merits of the winner (Thiem), and in that case it is indisputably so.
Here, however, I would not know how to stick my neck out, and in fact I opened a poll on purpose.

 

[junior74]

RAFA should have won in 4. He was serving for the 2nd set and choked the break away. Then he choked the mini break away in the TB. He never should have been down 2-0 in the first place.

(Norwegian insurance company)
Rafa was closer to losing in 3 than winning in 4.

In the end, Rafa deserved it and won in 5, but Medvedev had 3 actual BPs and would have to hold a couple of more times to do it in straights...
Quite sure Medvedev felt he lost it. He was in a winning position, clearly.

Rafa is epic, though. Meddy isn't.
I guess it boils down to that

 

[Kralingen]

If you are up 2-0 in a Slam Final you are good enough to win it and indeed should win it the vast majority of the time. I understand all the context (Nadal was unlucky to lose the 2nd set and it probably should’ve been 1-1; Nadal is a million times more talented and better shot maker; Medvedev had more fatigue on his legs) but it’s still no excuse.

Medvedev is a despicable choking mug and it was hilarious to see him collapse in this manner.

 

[MichaelNadal]

All I know is that is was Mythical af, and there’s no universe in which Rafa should have only 1 AO. Justice happened.

 

[dking68]

If you are up 2-0 in a Slam Final you are good enough to win it and indeed should win it the vast majority of the time. I understand all the context (Nadal was unlucky to lose the 2nd set and it probably should’ve been 1-1; Nadal is a million times more talented and better shot maker; Medvedev had more fatigue on his legs) but it’s still no excuse.

Medvedev is a despicable choking mug and it was hilarious to see him collapse in this manner.

Against Sinner, he lost to a better player who played his first slam final

 

[junior74]

If you are up 2-0 in a Slam Final you are good enough to win it and indeed should win it the vast majority of the time. I understand all the context (Nadal was unlucky to lose the 2nd set and it probably should’ve been 1-1; Nadal is a million times more talented and better shot maker; Medvedev had more fatigue on his legs) but it’s still no excuse.

Medvedev is a despicable choking mug and it was hilarious to see him collapse in this manner.

Rafa had a heat stroke in the QF, no?

 

[Winner Sinner]

Against Sinner, he lost to a better player who played his first slam final

Against Sinner, up until 5-2 in the second set, I think he played the best tennis of his career.
He served like a tank, super aggressive from the baseline, and he also showed off a mixed version between McEnroe and Edberg at the net.

Sinner was literally stunned.

The difference with the 2022 final against Nadal, as explained by Medvedev himself in the post-2024 final press conference, is that in the final against Sinner he was never really close to winning the match.
If I'm not mistaken, after the second set Sinner only conceded one break point in the next 3 sets.
A trend that somewhat recalled the Paris final between Djokovic and Tsitsipas, even on that occasion Tsitsipas, despite being ahead 2-0, was never close to winning the match, precisely because he no longer had any concrete opportunities to win one of the next 3.
Or Sinner against Djokovic in the 2022 Wimbledon match, even there ahead 2-0 he was never really close.

Medvedev instead in the 2022 Melbourne final had his chances to definitively kill that match.

 

[Hitman]

All I know is that is was Mythical af, and there’s no universe in which Rafa should have only 1 AO. Justice happened.

Really kind of how I felt about Djokovic at RG, with that 2021 win. And then of course getting the triple two years later was a huge vindication, because he was Nadal's biggest rival there.

Federer though also should have had a second RG, but I think he blew too many chances even before 2005...he basically played half the 00s without Nadal in the draw, but he simply wasn't ready.

 

[The Blond Blur]

(Norwegian insurance company)
Rafa was closer to losing in 3 than winning in 4.

In the end, Rafa deserved it and won in 5, but Medvedev had 3 actual BPs and would have to hold a couple of more times to do it in straights...
Quite sure Medvedev felt he lost it. He was in a winning position, clearly.

Rafa is epic, though. Meddy isn't.
I guess it boils down to that

I mean the same thing applies to Midvedev winning in 3, lol. The only reason he was in that position in the first place was because RAFA repeatedly gifted away the 2nd set. Then he won sets 3-5.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Or let's be clear, even if Medvedev had managed to convert one of those break points in the sixth game of the third set, I wouldn't take it for granted that he would have won that match.

Too much of a rollercoaster ride, with serves that had a tendency to break.

In addition, there was also the precedent between the two of the match at the ATP Finals 2019, where Nadal won the match by recovering from two breaks of disadvantage in the second set where Medvedev found himself ahead 1-0 and 5-1 in the set.

 

[Winner Sinner]

RAFA should have won in 4. He was serving for the 2nd set and choked the break away. Then he choked the mini break away in the TB. He never should have been down 2-0 in the first place.

In the video I posted you can only see Nadal's second set point at 5-3 where, during the containment phase, his slice backhand ended up in the net.

The substantial difference is that Medvedev, when in the third set he seemed to have the match in hand, inexplicably began to change his tactical plan by abusing a shot (the dropshot) that simply does not belong to him, when instead logically he should have continued to limit himself to practicing his style of play that had brought him up to that point.
I honestly don't know if that suicidal tactical choice was due to a lack of clarity caused by tiredness, or to an excess of confidence, or simply to fear.
The fact remains that it completely changed the inertia of the match.

 

[McGradey]

Nadal even in a declined state is simply a better player than Medvedev, with a far more damaging game. Nadal raised his level and Medvedev got tired and couldn't hang. Long Tall Danny definitely should've won though, it was there for the taking and he shrunk.

 

[The Blond Blur]

In the video I posted you can only see Nadal's second set point at 5-3 where, during the containment phase, his slice backhand ended up in the net.

And? RAFA was up 4-1 at one point. He serves for the 2nd set and even had a set point. Then at deuce he hits back to back UFE to get broken. Then has a mini break in the TB that he choked away.

 

[mike danny]

If you are up 2-0 in a Slam Final you are good enough to win it and indeed should win it the vast majority of the time. I understand all the context (Nadal was unlucky to lose the 2nd set and it probably should’ve been 1-1; Nadal is a million times more talented and better shot maker; Medvedev had more fatigue on his legs) but it’s still no excuse.

Medvedev is a despicable choking mug and it was hilarious to see him collapse in this manner.

If people want to play this game, then Fed should not have been down 0-2 at 2008 Wimb

 

[mike danny]

I mean the same thing applies to Midvedev winning in 3, lol. The only reason he was in that position in the first place was because RAFA repeatedly gifted away the 2nd set. Then he won sets 3-5.

Would you say the same about 2008 Wimb?

 

[TheGoldenEra1990’s]

Med always loses it. I lost count of the matches where he had 2 sets leads only to never close the deal. . He’s a dud from a dud generation of players. He’s lucky Djoker was gassed and playing horribly at us open with nerve issues going in or else he would be slamless like the rest of his gen

 

[The Blond Blur]

Would you say the same about 2008 Wimb?

 

[Winner Sinner]

And? RAFA was up 4-1 at one point. He serves for the 2nd set and even had a set point. Then at deuce he hits back to back UFE to get broken. Then has a mini break in the TB that he choked away.

I remembered wrong, it wasn't the second set point but maybe the only one he had in that second set.
Anyway, it's at minute 6:20 of the video.
That for me is a forced error rather than a free one.

 

[The Blond Blur]

I remembered wrong, it wasn't the second set point but maybe the only one he had in that second set.
Anyway, it's at minute 6:20 of the video.
That for me is a forced error rather than a free one.

Regardless, RAFA was up a break twice in the set, served for the set, and even had SPs on serve. Even when he failed to serve it out he was still up a mini break in the TB and gave that away with bad errors. You give any player of that caliber so many bites at the cherry and it’s going to comeback to bite you.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Regardless, RAFA was up a break twice in the set, served for the set, and even had SPs on serve. Even when he failed to serve it out he was still up a mini break in the TB and gave that away with bad errors. You give any player of that caliber so many bites at the cherry and it’s going to comeback to bite you.

And that's why I say that even if Medvedev had converted one of the break points in that sixth game of the third set, I wouldn't bet on him winning the match.

 

[The Blond Blur]

And that's why I say that even if Medvedev had converted one of the break points in that sixth game of the third set, I wouldn't bet on him winning the match.

That’s why I’m saying that it was more due to RAFA’s rise in play vs any choking going on with Midevedev’s game.

 

[mike danny]

Why not? Fed was up a break and ended up losing 5 games in a row

 

[Enceladus]

Medvedev's implosion is the worst of all the losses from a 2-0 set lead in a Grand Slam final in the Open era. Medvedev was no rookie in the 2022 AO final, he already had 3 Grand Slam finals and a title from the last GS event. It was played on HC, his strongest surface, and he was up against a player 10 years older and for whom HC is not the best surface. The other players who have squandered a 2-0 set lead in a GS final were either rookies (Tsitsipas, Zverev) or it happened to them on their worst surface (McEnroe on RG 1984). Any ATG player wouldn't lose a match like this. The 2022 AO final showed that Medvedev does not have a killer instinct and will never be an ATG player.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Medvedev's implosion is the worst of all the losses from a 2-0 set lead in a Grand Slam final in the Open era. Medvedev was no rookie in the 2022 AO final, he already had 3 Grand Slam finals and a title from the last GS event. It was played on HC, his strongest surface, and he was up against a player 10 years older and for whom HC is not the best surface. The other players who have squandered a 2-0 set lead in a GS final were either rookies (Tsitsipas, Zverev) or it happened to them on their worst surface (McEnroe on RG 1984). Any ATG player wouldn't lose a match like this. The 2022 AO final showed that Medvedev does not have a killer instinct and will never be an ATG player.

He got hit with an epic reversal

 

[Racquet_smash]

Well Nadal threw the 2nd set away so i'm not really sure you could say Medvedev was in the spot to claim a win out of that match.

 

[weakera]

All I know is that is was Mythical af, and there’s no universe in which Rafa should have only 1 AO. Justice happened.

Well said lol

 

[MichaelNadal]

Well said lol

He got it in literally:

1: The most epic fashion possible

and
2: JUST IN TIME bc he was spent af by the time 2023 rolled around

 

[Subway Tennis]

He got it in literally:

1: The most epic fashion possible

and
2: JUST IN TIME bc he was spent af by the time 2023 rolled around

The win predictor in that match started to give Nadal some absurdly impossible percentage of winning the match. As we know with King Nadal, you never want to introduce the idea of the match being over, because that’s when he puts the hard hat on. “It’s still possible, no?”

 

[weakera]

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

I'd say both. It felt like Medvedev gagged the third set. By the time he gagged the third, it was too late. Bull was coming for the lad. And come he did.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

Tennis lost either way

 

[ChrisJR3264]

I think medvedev got tight once Rafa came back from 0-40 down. He missed his chance to put it away. One shot can turn around a match and that nasty drop shot and meds reaction - he knew he over played his hand on that rally.

 

[junior74]

I'd say both. It felt like Medvedev gagged the third set. By the time he gagged the third, it was too late. Bull was coming for the lad. And come he did.

Bull came and the kid stopped dreaming

 

[GoatNo1]

med overplayed rafa to 2-0 and *0-40 for break in the 3rd. rafa did nothing speciell on those 3 BPs but won them and med imploded.

 

[AM75]

Is it the final where Meddy served and Nadal knew he wouldn’t get the ball and said he was not ready?

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

Bull came and the kid stopped dreaming

 

[RaulRamirez]

I try not to look at "should haves" in sports. For instance, not cashing in on, say, break points, set points or match points is not a "should have". Getting to the one-yardline in football is not a "should have scored a touchdown".

To me, the only possible "should have" is when an official makes a blatantly bad call, and even then...

 

[The Blond Blur]

Why not? Fed was up a break and ended up losing 5 games in a row

There’s multiple differences between AO 22 vs Wimby 08. For starters, Fed only led by a single a break in set 2 whereas RAFA was up a break twice in the AO (4-1 and 5-3). RAFA served for the 2nd set whereas Fed didn’t, and he had multiple SP on serve. And even in the TB RAFA had a mini break and choked that away with bad errors.

 

[SonnyT]

Post-'11, Nadal batted NULL at AO & WB when Djokovic was present! Those two slams were dominated the most by Djokovic! If Djokovic were present in 2022 AO, there would be little doubt that he take the title!

 

[nolefam_2024]

Post-'11, Nadal batted NULL at AO & WB when Djokovic was present! Those two slams were dominated the most by Djokovic!

16 times djokovic won it between 11 to 23. 16