Even on clay he used to break Nadal quite a bit in a handful the matches.No love for David Ferrer? Underrated returner imo
trusty outdoor hard vs top 20 [min 1200 pts] is saying 80th place w/ 26.68% (Sampras at 32nd place w/ 28.18% )Agassi being a top 15 returner is just propaganda. The guy was a straight up average 1st serve returner and he played in an era of meme 2nd serves.
as far as i can tell this isn't true for any year in '11-16 on all surfaces. so then we go to non-clay, where Murray was fractionally ahead in '16 and '14, fractionally behind in '13, and well behind in '11, '12, and '15. on outdoor hard, Murray was well behind every year besides '14 and '16I think everyone agrees Djokovic is better than Murray at basically everything besides returning so how if that's the case was Murray winning more return games than Djokovic in their primes if Murray's not a better returner.
if you filter by top 20 the gap widens and Murray is always behind, whether on all surfaces, non-clay, or outdoor hard (except for outdoor hard in '12)I've seen it argued before that Murray ran up the numbers a bit vs lesser competition and there's actually a significant gap in RPW for Djokovic vs top 10 opponents and if that's true then I can see the case but I think we have to take very seriously the possibility that Murray is a better returner than Djokovic.
he's ATG tier, not yet GOAT tierAlso I wonder at what point we consider Carlos for this list obviously the body of work is not quite there yet but he's well on his way.
Nishikori was basically never top 5 on 1st or 2nd return so pretty overrated imo. didn't get enough returns in playSurprised to see Nishikori left off the list but no inclusion above him is really offensive.
Schwartzman is around Ferrer or Alcaraz tier imo, below the likes of Djokovic and Murray but above most everyone elseAlso I wonder what you do with someone like Schwartzman who only had a career because of his special return/return game. Yes he faces far less great competition than top guys so it's easier to post gaudy return numbers and clay skew but I wonder if isolating return he doesnt deserve consideration here.
Djokovic was better in slams, Murray was better in Masters lolWell in slams I know who performed better on return versus Fed lol
Agreed on all. Shocked by Andre stats on HC.trusty outdoor hard vs top 20 [min 1200 pts] is saying 80th place w/ 26.68% (Sampras at 32nd place w/ 28.18% )
as far as i can tell this isn't true for any year in '11-16 on all surfaces. so then we go to non-clay, where Murray was fractionally ahead in '16 and '14, fractionally behind in '13, and well behind in '11, '12, and '15. on outdoor hard, Murray was well behind every year besides '14 and '16
if you filter by top 20 the gap widens and Murray is always behind, whether on all surfaces, non-clay, or outdoor hard (except for outdoor hard in '12)
he's ATG tier, not yet GOAT tier
Nishikori was basically never top 5 on 1st or 2nd return so pretty overrated imo. didn't get enough returns in play
Schwartzman is around Ferrer or Alcaraz tier imo, below the likes of Djokovic and Murray but above most everyone else
Djokovic was better in slams, Murray was better in Masters lol
I've seen it argued before that Murray ran up the numbers a bit vs lesser competition and there's actually a significant gap in RPW for Djokovic vs top 10 opponents and if that's true then I can see the case but I think we have to take very seriously the possibility that Murray is a better returner than Djokovic.
Are you seeing tennis abstract return stats ? Those are diluted after his hip surgery. He was never the same.Ah, was just about to respond with this, kind of answered your own question.Yeah, Djokovic posted much better numbers against Top 5/10 players in most years their overall return game numbers were similar.
I still think Murray might have an equally good pure return but his in-play winning % is shockingly low, below greats like Millman, Kohlschreiber, Edmund, Tommy Paul etc…despite a very good ground/pass/junk game. His poke-returning strategy was great against bots but ran into a wall against some of the very best serve+1’ers…….still an all-time return, though, and I echo the thought that it’s underrated.
Agassi being a top 15 returner is just propaganda. The guy was a straight up average 1st serve returner and he played in an era of meme 2nd serves.
Would you argue a peak Fed had better BH than a peak Djokovic on a fast HC and grass? Actually maybe even career as a whole.Who am I picking to return any elite server's serve on a fast court? Federer by far.
Who am I picking to return Kei Nishikori's and Andy Murray's serve in relatively low stakes matches? Probably Djokovic.
Are you seeing tennis abstract return stats ? Those are diluted after his hip surgery. He was never the same.
Hewitt betterAgree it’s overrated…GOAT second serve return but merely decent 1stSR is hilariously asymmetrical.
He was the best at slamming back anything in his hitting zone but was too often beaten for width.
2008-16 | vs Top5 | T5 Weight | vs Top10 | T10 Weight | vs T11+ | T11+ Weight | vs All |
Nole | 39.8% | 17.17% | 40.4% | 32.02% | 44.0% | 67.98% | 42.8% |
Fed | 36.3% | 14.33% | 36.8% | 25.91% | 40.7% | 74.09% | 39.6% |
Rafa | 39.7% | 15.16% | 39.6% | 26.56% | 43.4% | 73.44% | 42.4% |
Murray | 37.6% | 15.01% | 38.5% | 23.89% | 43.4% | 76.11% | 42.1% |
I appreciate the Hewitt respect. Hewitt wins out over Fed for me because of the more punishing second serve return. Federer's first serve return is legitimately right up there with the very best IMO. On Hewitt I've never seen anyone punish the Sampras serve like he did. The only person whose serve is he truly struggled with is Karlovic, not sure if that was a reach thing or what? Obviously Karlovic being the GOAT server had something to do with it too.Honestly the video is kinda slanderous putting Fed ROS above Hewitt. Think Hewitt wins on lateral quickness, pace absorption, balls in play, passing, and ability to play different positions. Hewitt's return is GOAT tier as far as I'm concerned. I guess putting it 5th is acknowledging that but seems crazy to me to put behind Fed when I think Hewitt beats Fed's return at it's greatest strength (pace absorption).
Becker thought André was pretty good.Not even top 1000
Meme is bad.
I was joking. Andre is right at the top along with Djokovic.Becker thought André was pretty good.
The top 3 that I've watched have to be Hewitt/Murray/Djokovic. I haven't watched much old tennis not nearly enough to say with any confidence who was the best before 2000 but from what people say and from what makes sense to me it seems like Borg and Connors could fill out those last couple spots. I'm surprised Chang doesn't ever see any talk in these discussions I've only seen a couple matches of his career but he seems to get everything back. Definitely not as flashy as more aggressive returners like Agassi, Davy, Nishi, Safin, or even Fognini when he was rolling but I tend to favor a more consistent neutralizing approach because great players should win the majority of neutral points so a great return should give them as many opportunities to do that as possible. Essentially what I'm saying here is I like a bit more of a balanced risk profile somewhere between Agassi and Simon (who's another really talented returner imo).I appreciate the Hewitt respect. Hewitt wins out over Fed for me because of the more punishing second serve return. Federer's first serve return is legitimately right up there with the very best IMO. On Hewitt I've never seen anyone punish the Sampras serve like he did. The only person whose serve is he truly struggled with is Karlovic, not sure if that was a reach thing or what? Obviously Karlovic being the GOAT server had something to do with it too.
What would your top 5 be?![]()
Honestly Murray had some epic returning performances against Fed’s serve. I don’t think it’s as clear-cut for Djokovic as far as returning Fed’s serve goes.In the big matches Djokovic's return shone more than Murray’s. I would pick Murray to get the biggest serves into play, but against everything else (including an elite spot server like Federer) I would take Djokovic.
Those were mostly in masters where Fed wasn't playing with full intensity imo. But maybe I'm underselling Murray’s return a bit.Honestly Murray had some epic returning performances against Fed’s serve. I don’t think it’s as clear-cut for Djokovic as far as returning Fed’s serve goes.
Even in a match like Wimbledon 2015 semi where everyone remembers Fed’s serving, Murray still returned that serve shockingly well.
Those were mostly in masters where Fed wasn't playing with full intensity imo. But maybe I'm underselling Murray’s return a bit.
Andy Murray (Great Britain) beat Roger Federer (Switzerland) 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 in the Olympic Games final 2012, played on grass at Wimbledon, England
Keys to the match
I think the biggest one must be Murray's returning. I've marked 13 off Federer's 19 unreturned serves as Aces or Service Winners (in other words, what we call 'unreturnable serves'). Anything less than that though, comes back. Just 6 return errors on grass and against Roger Federer serving at 65% is very impressive from the Scot
Roger Federer beat Andy Murray 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(11) in the final of the Australian Open, 2010 on hard court
Not a bad match in all.... solid returning from both, especially Murray. His ability to get Federer's excellent serve back in play (even on this slow court) is laudable.
Roger Federer beat Andy Murray 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4 in the Wimbledon final, 2012 on grass
Serve & Return
Federer serves at 69% - and serves as well as he usually does. Which is very well. On a fast grass court. And is kept to just 22% unreturned serve by Murray's returning. To put this in perspective, look at how Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have fared against same opponent on same surface
Against Djokovic in previous round, Fed had 44% unreturned serves (Fed served even more precisely there). In 2014 and 2019 final, the numbers were 35% and 35% respectively. Rafael Nadal, who specializes in consistency on return, in 4 matches in '06, '07, '08 and '19 managed 39%, 37%, 34% and 33%
Nor is this apparently out of the ordinary from Murray. In the Olympics final about a month later, he again held Federer to 24% - a match Federer played badly in, but served just fine
Murrays' returning style is something of a cross between Djokovic and Nadal. Not as many damaging deep returns as Djokovic, but along the same lines and apparently, even more able to just get balls in play than Nadal. He takes the first serve return from further behind than Djoko does but not as far as Nadal. Good clean hitting on the return too. Fed gaining cheap points - a big piece in what makes him so effective on grass - is kept to a bare minimum
I think Fed goofs just a bit with his directions. Murray is an equally-strong-off-both-sides returner and its best to not overdo default majority to BH patterns to such players. Fed seems to go the other way - and actually serves majority to FH. Unlike Djokovic, who does appear a shade less consistent of the FH return, I don't see any justification for this. Fed draws same number of errors - forced and unforced - from both sides.
Standard very good serving from Federer, exceptionally good returning from Murray
Roger Federer beat Andy Murray 7-5, 7-5, 6-4 in the Wimbledon semi-final, 2015 on grass
Serve & Return
The Federer serve vs Murray return is one of the best battles you'll see with both men on top of their games. When that happens on grass, its invariably the server that comes out on top and that's what happens here
Generally speaking, Murray returns Fed's serve better than anybody. Seems to read it, isn't caught out by direction, reaches wide ones, misses very little in swing range and hits firmly. Combination of high return rate and hitting with neutralizing (if not initiative snatching) force is stellar
All of the above is one show here... only what generally passes as Fed's best serves, in this match are his norm. 20 aces from Fed, serving at 76%. A powerful wide serve or a slower very wide one are the easiest first serves Murray faces. And the aces are perfect, nothing to be done against them. Even the second serves are tough, beyond being difficult to attack and in minor weapon range of quality. Its not all about power with him... the placement and variety are just as big a factor in serves effectiveness. In general, this makes Fed's 'serve-botting' showings more interesting than most players who have the ability to blast people away with the serve shot alone
Federer serves 17 games. Not in a single game does he serve more second serves than firsts. Only 4 times does he serve 50% in a game. His worst percentage in a set is the 2nd, where he makes 61% first serves... which would be good as a match long stat. To compensate for it falling that 'low', he wins all 19 first serve points for the set
This serving demo could easily yield 50%+ unreturned rate. Murray keeps it down to 41% by executing all the things mentioned earlier. Fed serve-volleys to enhance potential of his serve but is kept to just 57% won doing so too. When he can reach the return, Murray hits them firmly and neutralizingly. Just 16 errors from Murray, most of them hard forced ones. The rest are out and out unreturnable
Decisive factor in final outcome is in the opposite match up.
Djokovic is good only on homogenous environment. It's much easier to return when a server stays back behind the baseline plus ball stays high. Djokovic was never been tested against a great server like Sampras on a slick fast grass. It's also tougher to return against net-rusher in the fast, serve/volley environment. This is why Hewitt, Agassi, and Federer are better than Djokovic when dealing with aggressive serve/volley type players putting pressure to hit a great return every time.Probably Agassi. Djoker didn’t play on lightning fast surfaces with no poly.
Fair enough then!King Andy could actually do it any time, anywhere, any place![]()
Borg and especially Connors for pure return are certainly right there, I mentioned Rosewall earlier and some of the anecdotes about his return paint him as right up there too. You don't rate Agassi? For me Agassi is probably the best returner of the second serve I've seen.The top 3 that I've watched have to be Hewitt/Murray/Djokovic. I haven't watched much old tennis not nearly enough to say with any confidence who was the best before 2000 but from what people say and from what makes sense to me it seems like Borg and Connors could fill out those last couple spots. I'm surprised Chang doesn't ever see any talk in these discussions I've only seen a couple matches of his career but he seems to get everything back. Definitely not as flashy as more aggressive returners like Agassi, Davy, Nishi, Safin, or even Fognini when he was rolling but I tend to favor a more consistent neutralizing approach because great players should win the majority of neutral points so a great return should give them as many opportunities to do that as possible. Essentially what I'm saying here is I like a bit more of a balanced risk profile somewhere between Agassi and Simon (who's another really talented returner imo).
Oh and I will add I saw someone say this earlier and I totally agree I think Carlos FH return is GOAT tier. I could see it becoming the best ever and if he can leak fewer errors on the BH side he'll jump up to Hewitt/Murray/Djokovic tier.
Agassi's obviously an elite returner but he missed too much and he was a little slow on reactions to be in the same class as the greatest returners I've seen. Maybe that's colored by my only really seeing him in his older age. Hewitt/Murray/Djo represent the platonic ideal of return ability for me whereas Agassi and Nadal are amazing at what they do on both sides of the equation and it works for both of their styles but it's not quite what I'm looking for in terms of the mix between consistency and aggression.Fair enough then!
Borg and especially Connors for pure return are certainly right there, I mentioned Rosewall earlier and some of the anecdotes about his return paint him as right up there too. You don't rate Agassi? For me Agassi is probably the best returner of the second serve I've seen.
View on Federer?Agassi's obviously an elite returner but he missed too much and he was a little slow on reactions to be in the same class as the greatest returners I've seen. Maybe that's colored by my only really seeing him in his older age. Hewitt/Murray/Djo represent the platonic ideal of return ability for me whereas Agassi and Nadal are amazing at what they do on both sides of the equation and it works for both of their styles but it's not quite what I'm looking for in terms of the mix between consistency and aggression.
This should suffice you.I haven't seen enough of Agassi to judge tbf
Federer's not on that tier either. Federer's lack of balance makes Federer kinda matchup dependent on how effective his return is and I also think Federer's second serve return is a relative weakness in this discussion. I also don't know how much we care about this but he also missed too much as he aged where I don't think the return decline of the other guys in this conversation is as steep as Fed's.View on Federer?
Yeah I think this was an important part of it. His return was great at peak and in best-ever convo if we’re talking first serve particularly, but after 2007 and especially after 2012 his return really took a hit.I also don't know how much we care about this but he also missed too much as he aged where I don't think the return decline of the other guys in this conversation is as steep as Fed's.
Fed is a Tier 2 returner for me, I was just curious where you saw him. I think Federer got a bit lazy on the return because his groundgame was so relatively strong against the field. He overrelied on the chip backhand returns.Federer's not on that tier either. Federer's lack of balance makes Federer kinda matchup dependent on how effective his return is and I also think Federer's second serve return is a relative weakness in this discussion. I also don't know how much we care about this but he also missed too much as he aged where I don't think the return decline of the other guys in this conversation is as steep as Fed's.
Probably a mix of laziness and limitation. For various reasons the chip was highly effective against his main rivals until Nadal so no reason to develop the drive but even when playing Nadal during his peak he didn't punish Nadal's pretty terrible serve in the early days much at all even after having a couple years to adjust to it.Fed is a Tier 2 returner for me, I was just curious where you saw him. I think Federer got a bit lazy on the return because his groundgame was so relatively strong against the field. He overrelied on the chip backhand returns.