Predict Serena's 2017 year end ranking

[r2473]

She's played 4 tournaments (it says on the WTA site) and has 2,030 points from 2 tournaments. 2,000 from The Australian and 30 from Auckland. That will be the points she finishes the year with. What will her 2017 year-end ranking be?

For reference, last years 2016 year end rankings. #20 had 2,170. Slightly more than Serena has now.



1 Angelique Kerber (GER) 9,080

2 Serena Williams (USA) 7,050

3 Agnieszka Radwańska (POL) 5,600

4 Simona Halep (ROU) 5,228

5 Dominika Cibulková (SVK) 4,875

6 Karolína Plíšková (CZE) 4,600

7 Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) 4,236

8 Madison Keys (USA) 4,137

9 Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) 4,115

10 Johanna Konta (GBR) 3,640

11 Petra Kvitová (CZE) 3,485

12 Carla Suárez Navarro (ESP) 3,070

13 Victoria Azarenka (BLR) 3,061

14 Elina Svitolina (UKR) 2,895

15 Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) 2,347

16 Elena Vesnina (RUS) 2,252

17 Venus Williams (USA) 2,240

18 Roberta Vinci (ITA) 2,210

19 Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 2,185

20 Barbora Strýcová (CZE) 2,170

 

[bigserving]

I am predicting her to be 1......... plus another 1.

 

[TripleATeam]

If last year had this, and Serena won't play any more tournaments, it can go one of two ways- either the points get more concentrated at the top because Serena will be taking fewer of them from her peers or the points will get more spread out.

Seeing as Serena had a limited schedule, only playing big tournaments, it's unlikely that her being gone will affect anyone not in the top 20. Hence, the points will likely get more top-heavy, even though they might be distributed more equally among the top 10.

Serena ranks top 20.