Predict the breakthrough player of 2025

[Aabye5]

By claiming two majors this year, Jannik Sinner has clearly upped his level in 2024 and earned the breakthrough player of the year award. However, we've also seen a handful of other players make important strives in the right direction.

Which player surprised you the most in 2024, and which player do you see building on their success in 2025?


Surprise players of 2024:

Taylor Fritz - reaches first major final at the 2024 US Open, defeating Zverev and Tiafoe on the way

Alexei Popyrin - showed up in Canada and left with the trophy, before defeating Djokovic at the US Open

Jack Draper - first semifinal at the 2024 US Open, win over Alcaraz before Wimbledon, and first title in Stuttgart

Arthur Fils - two 500-level titles (Hamburg, Tokyo), wins over Zverev and Rune, and a career-high ranking of 18

Jakub Mensik - the youngster has taken down four top 10 players this year. Reached first final in Doha

Tomas Machac - reached first final in Geneva, first QF at an M1000 in Miami, and beat Alcaraz in Shanghai to reach first SF at an M1000

Ben Shelton - picked up second title in Houston, reached a career-high ranking of 13


Or will it be someone else?

 

[Rosstour]

By claiming two majors this year, Jannik Sinner has clearly upped his level in 2024 and earned the breakthrough player of the year award. However, we've also seen a handful of other players make important strives in the right direction.

Which player surprised you the most in 2024, and which player do you see building on their success in 2025?


Surprise players of 2024:

Taylor Fritz - reaches first major final at the 2024 US Open, defeating Zverev and Tiafoe on the way

Alexei Popyrin - showed up in Canada and left with the trophy, before defeating Djokovic at the US Open

Jack Draper - first semifinal at the 2024 US Open, win over Alcaraz before Wimbledon, and first title in Stuttgart

Arthur Fils - two 500-level titles (Hamburg, Tokyo), wins over Zverev and Rune, and a career-high ranking of 18

Jakub Mensik - the youngster has taken down four top 10 players this year. Reached first final in Doha

Tomas Machac - reached first final in Geneva, first QF at an M1000 in Miami, and beat Alcaraz in Shanghai to reach first SF at an M1000

Ben Shelton - picked up second title in Houston, reached a career-high ranking of 13


Or will it be someone else?

Is a breakthrough just winning a Slam?

 

[GRASScaraz]

Fonseca JOAO

 

[Winner Sinner]

By claiming two majors this year, Jannik Sinner has clearly upped his level in 2024 and earned the breakthrough player of the year award. However, we've also seen a handful of other players make important strives in the right direction.

Which player surprised you the most in 2024, and which player do you see building on their success in 2025?


Surprise players of 2024:

Taylor Fritz - reaches first major final at the 2024 US Open, defeating Zverev and Tiafoe on the way

Alexei Popyrin - showed up in Canada and left with the trophy, before defeating Djokovic at the US Open

Jack Draper - first semifinal at the 2024 US Open, win over Alcaraz before Wimbledon, and first title in Stuttgart

Arthur Fils - two 500-level titles (Hamburg, Tokyo), wins over Zverev and Rune, and a career-high ranking of 18

Jakub Mensik - the youngster has taken down four top 10 players this year. Reached first final in Doha

Tomas Machac - reached first final in Geneva, first QF at an M1000 in Miami, and beat Alcaraz in Shanghai to reach first SF at an M1000

Ben Shelton - picked up second title in Houston, reached a career-high ranking of 13


Or will it be someone else?

Sinner cannot be the revelation of this 2024, this is when its level
by the end of 2023 it was already frighteningly high. He closed the year in the top 4, after a streak of 20 wins and 2 losses, within those 20 wins he won twice against the world number 1, once against number 2, three times against number 3, in total 7 victories against the top 5 only in the last weeks of 2023. If I'm not mistaken, only Djokovic and Nadal of the active players at the time won more matches against the top 5 in a season more than Sinner 2023, not even Murray he had never succeeded. So no, the Sinner 2024 was the normal evolution of the Sinner at the end of 2023. However, not because I am Italian but among the 2024 revelations instead of Sinner I would put Cobolli, as well as the Argentine Navone himself. If, however, we want to reward an already high-level player, I would go with De Minaur, a super performer until his injury at Wimbledon, a notable leap in quality and now competitive on every surface. Instead, when it comes to the poll for next year, among the candidates I will definitely go with Mensik, absurd potential, he could be the emerging player who will bring the closest to Sinneraz's levels in the future, next year I expect him to be in the top 15, perhaps already in the top 10.

 

[Aabye5]

Is a breakthrough just winning a Slam?

No. But in Sinner's case, I think that was the next logical step. Of course, that's always easier said than done.

 

[Aabye5]

Sinner cannot be the revelation of this 2024, this is when its level
by the end of 2023 it was already frighteningly high. He closed the year in the top 4, after a streak of 20 wins and 2 losses, within those 20 wins he won twice against the world number 1, once against number 2, three times against number 3, in total 7 victories against the top 5 only in the last weeks of 2023. If I'm not mistaken, only Djokovic and Nadal of the active players at the time won more matches against the top 5 in a season more than Sinner 2023, not even Murray he had never succeeded. So no, the Sinner 2024 was the normal evolution of the Sinner at the end of 2023. However, not because I am Italian but among the 2024 revelations instead of Sinner I would put Cobolli, as well as the Argentine Navone himself. If, however, we want to reward an already high-level player, I would go with De Minaur, a super performer until his injury at Wimbledon, a notable leap in quality and now competitive on every surface. Instead, when it comes to the poll for next year, among the candidates I will definitely go with Mensik, absurd potential, he could be the emerging player who will bring the closest to Sinneraz's levels in the future, next year I expect him to be in the top 15, perhaps already in the top 10.

Right, but Sinner hadn't won a major. Last year, he was a major contender, although he had not yet reached his first final. We've seen plenty of major contenders never close the deal.

I forgot Cobolli, he should be included. Still, you can pick any player, that's why there is an 'Other' option. De Minaur did reach the quarters at three majors this year, but in terms of wins, only the Medvedev one is above his ranking.

 

[Dropshot777]

Miomir Kecmanovic, Joao Fonseca, Jiri Lehecka

 

[socallefty]

Djoko?

 

[Shaolin]

Good things coming from Giovanni, Cobolli and Fils.

 

[McLovin]

I think Fonseca is the easiest, as he’s in the mid 100s, and will likely finish 2025 in the top 50. But I also think GMP and Lehecka will finish top 20.

I think both GMP & Lehecka will win a 500 level tournament, and have good showings (QF) in a major or two.

 

[Rosstour]

If Shelton is on this list, Lorenzo Musetti belongs on it too

 

[jm1972]

Fils

 

[GloW]

Zverev CYGS, mark my words

 

[Sudacafan]

Kyrgios, I believe in all of what he says. Very solid thinking.

 

[Dropshot777]

By claiming two majors this year, Jannik Sinner has clearly upped his level in 2024 and earned the breakthrough player of the year award. However, we've also seen a handful of other players make important strives in the right direction.

Which player surprised you the most in 2024, and which player do you see building on their success in 2025?


Surprise players of 2024:

Taylor Fritz - reaches first major final at the 2024 US Open, defeating Zverev and Tiafoe on the way

Alexei Popyrin - showed up in Canada and left with the trophy, before defeating Djokovic at the US Open

Jack Draper - first semifinal at the 2024 US Open, win over Alcaraz before Wimbledon, and first title in Stuttgart

Arthur Fils - two 500-level titles (Hamburg, Tokyo), wins over Zverev and Rune, and a career-high ranking of 18

Jakub Mensik - the youngster has taken down four top 10 players this year. Reached first final in Doha

Tomas Machac - reached first final in Geneva, first QF at an M1000 in Miami, and beat Alcaraz in Shanghai to reach first SF at an M1000

Ben Shelton - picked up second title in Houston, reached a career-high ranking of 13


Or will it be someone else?

What about Fonseca?