Predict the state of the Great Slam Race by EOY 2020

NKDM

Semi-Pro
#1
Current slam counts-

Roger: 20
Rafa: 17
Novak: 14

Between now and EOY 2020 there are 8 slams. How do see these guys slam counts changing?

Here are my predictions-

Djoko wins 3 slams - 1 FO 1 AO 1 USO or 1 Wimbledon
Nadal wins 2 slams - 1 FO and 1 other slam - either USO or Wimbledon
Roger wins 1 slam - Wimbledon
1 AO and 1 USO go to someone else.

Roger retires with 21
Novak will have 17
Nadal will have 19

(I can also see a case for Roger still at 20 and Novak, Nadal equalized at 18)

After 2020, it’ll be between Novak and Rafa but I can’t say just yet if they’ll catch and surpass Roger
 

King No1e

Hall of Fame
#3
I just can't see Federer winning Slams. (Yes, we've said this numerous times only to be disproven). But he's 37 now. He's given everything he's got and more over the last 2 decades. We've been privileged to watch the legendary career unfold. But as much as we wished it, time never freezes.
Nadal: 3 more over the next 2 years (2 RG's, and one Wimbledon or possibly USO). Attackdal of 2018 who only lost 2 completed matches will be a scary opponent for the field
Djokovic: 4 more (3 AO, 1 more USO, or 2 and 2. As much as I would love to see him play into his 30's like Fed and Agassi and win 4 more AO, I can't pin my hopes on that because it's a setup for disappointment)
Nadal and Federer finish with 20, Djokovic with 18. Djokovic finishes as the undisputed AO GOAT and Nadal the undisputed RG GOAT, and Fed the Wimbledon GOAT.
 
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#4
It put into perspective how unlikely Nadal is to catch Federer the gap between them in regards to slams is the same as it was 13 years ago!
Nadal has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. Djokovic has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. The only race is between Nadal and Djokovic for who finishes second.
There is faulty logic here, a better statement would be it is the same as after RG 14. (I would pushback to that but it's at least a valid point.) In your example, it is before Federer won most of his slams. Using that method we could say the gap is more than 16 years ago, when neither had won a slam!
 
#5
Federer: I think he has no slams left in him, but we’ve saying that for ages, so I give him one last hurrah at the Australian Open.

Nadal: He’s definitely got the next two French Opens, I think he can win one or two more out of clay. Hopefully one Australian Open, maybe another Wimbledon. So 3-4

Djokovic: I say Novak takes the other three, I was originally thinking the NextGen take one, but they sure as hell ain’t taking one from Nole.

Overall, I say Djokovic takes 2019 AO, Nadal takes RG and Wimbledon, either Djokovic or a NextGen for USO (I know I said NextGen ain’t taking one from Djokovic, but keep reading). 2020 AO, either Djokovic takes it or Fedr has his last hurrah, RG for Rafa, Wimbledon goes to Djokodal or NextGen, the USO is between Djokodal. Tally then stands at
Fedr: 21
Nadl: 20-21
Djokr: 17-18
 

NKDM

Semi-Pro
#6
I just can't see Federer winning Slams. (Yes, we've said this numerous times only to be disproven). But he's 37 now. He's given everything he's got and more over the last 2 decades. We've been privileged to watch the legendary career unfold. But as much as we wished it, time never freezes.
Nadal: 3 more over the next 2 years (2 RG's, and one Wimbledon or possibly USO). Attackdal of 2018 who only lost 2 completed matches will be a scary opponent for the field
Djokovic: 4 more (3 AO, 1 more USO, or 2 and 2. As much as I would love to see him play into his 30's like Fed and Agassi and win 4 more AO, I can't pin my hopes on that because it's a setup for disappointment)
Nadal and Federer finish with 20, Djokovic with 18. Djokovic finishes as the undisputed AO GOAT and Nadal the undisputed RG GOAT, and Fed the Wimbledon GOAT.
I donno about Nadal winning both FOs. Novak is back and he’ll want to prove his lone FO wasn’t a flash in the pan.

I agree that Novak has the biggest upside with 3-4 going his way. It really comes down to how Nadal and Federer battle it out yet again directly or indirectly.
 

NKDM

Semi-Pro
#7
Federer: I think he has no slams left in him, but we’ve saying that for ages, so I give him one last hurrah at the Australian Open.

Nadal: He’s definitely got the next two French Opens, I think he can win one or two more out of clay. Hopefully one Australian Open, maybe another Wimbledon. So 3-4

Djokovic: I say Novak takes the other three, I was originally thinking the NextGen take one, but they sure as hell ain’t taking one from Nole.

Overall, I say Djokovic takes 2019 AO, Nadal takes RG and Wimbledon, either Djokovic or a NextGen for USO (I know I said NextGen ain’t taking one from Djokovic, but keep reading). 2020 AO, either Djokovic takes it or Fedr has his last hurrah, RG for Rafa, Wimbledon goes to Djokodal or NextGen, the USO is between Djokodal. Tally then stands at
Fedr: 21
Nadl: 20-21
Djokr: 17-18
That’s a bit optimistic for Rafa - at least till the end of 2020. No doubt he wants to get to the slam record, but even if he does get to it I don’t see it happening within the next 2 years. As I noted in the previous post, getting both FOs with Novak back in form will be tough.
 
#8
That’s a bit optimistic for Rafa - at least till the end of 2020. No doubt he wants to get to the slam record, but even if he does get to it I don’t see it happening within the next 2 years. As I noted in the previous post, getting both FOs with Novak back in form will be tough.
If Nadal can push Novak to the absolute limit at Wimbledon, under a roof, I trust in him to take Nole out on outdoor Clay
 
#10
It put into perspective how unlikely Nadal is to catch Federer the gap between them in regards to slams is the same as it was 13 years ago!
Nadal has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. Djokovic has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. The only race is between Nadal and Djokovic for who finishes second.
Not true: After 2005, it was 6-1 Fed (+5)
After 2008, it was 13-5 Fed (+8).
 
#11
There is faulty logic here, a better statement would be it is the same as after RG 14. (I would pushback to that but it's at least a valid point.) In your example, it is before Federer won most of his slams. Using that method we could say the gap is more than 16 years ago, when neither had won a slam!
True, and not only faulty logic, but faulty stats to base that logic on...as I just corrected.
And yes, they also both had the same number of "slams" after 2002 - Fed was 21, and Rafa 16 (years old)
 
#12
Current slam counts-

Roger: 20
Rafa: 17
Novak: 14

Between now and EOY 2020 there are 8 slams. How do see these guys slam counts changing?

Here are my predictions-

Djoko wins 3 slams - 1 FO 1 AO 1 USO or 1 Wimbledon
Nadal wins 2 slams - 1 FO and 1 other slam - either USO or Wimbledon
Roger wins 1 slam - Wimbledon
1 AO and 1 USO go to someone else.

Roger retires with 21
Novak will have 17
Nadal will have 19

(I can also see a case for Roger still at 20 and Novak, Nadal equalized at 18)

After 2020, it’ll be between Novak and Rafa but I can’t say just yet if they’ll catch and surpass Roger
I'm loathe to make predictions, but I think this is reasonable.
However, I wonder if it's selling the rest of the field short -- only 2 out of 8?
 
#14
I'm loathe to make predictions, but I think this is reasonable.
However, I wonder if it's selling the rest of the field short -- only 2 out of 8?
Yep until at least one of the 3 retires anyone else has to most likely beat 2 of them on the way to a slam win. Not happening that easy. Novak looks great, Federer may or may not win but he can make anyone earn their keep on any given day of a slam and I don’t think Nadal injuries are career threatening.

2 out of 8 is a very reasonable estimate.
 
#15
Let's not forget the reported hand injury of Federer at WB 2018 and USO 2018.

A healthy Federer should have options in either AO 2019 or WB 2019. If he fails at both despite being uninjured, I think he is done winning Slams.
Agree with a caveat. Realistically his best chance of adding another slam is in 2019.

But for whatever reason he doesn’t do it, I think he goes for a Hail Mary option in 2020 playing just the grass season for a final shot at Wimbledon and the Olympics.

He knows keeping the slam record is not all in his hands anymore. So he will go for 9 Wimbledons - equaling Navratilova. I think that is a far more secure record for his legacy.
 
#16
It put into perspective how unlikely Nadal is to catch Federer the gap between them in regards to slams is the same as it was 13 years ago!
Nadal has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. Djokovic has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. The only race is between Nadal and Djokovic for who finishes second.
I wouldn’t say there is zero chance.

But yeah it’s definitely not a cakewalk for either of them even with solid performances in the next couple of years. They’ll have to play beyond 35 yrs like Roger is doing now now to get past 20/21 slams.
 
#17
Novak: I can see Novak getting 3 or maybe 4 in the next 8 slams. The distribution is impossible to predict, but I think 1 or 2 AO, 1 WIM, and 1 US or maybe French, if Rafa falls off.

Rafa: Close to guaranteed for 1 of the next 2 RG. 95% of 1 RG, 70% at 2. I could also see a US or Wimby, but maybe ~40% chance of that over the next 2 years. Don't see an AO.

Fed: We have been writing him off for years, but one of these has to be his last... and given how he played at the end of last season, I think AO18 might have been it.

Novak: 17 probably.
Rafa: 19 or so.
Fed: Still the frontrunner at 20.
 
#22
AO 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 17, Djoker 15)
RG 19: Rafa (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 15)
WIM 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 16)
USO 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 17)
AO 20: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 18)
RG 20: Rafa (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 18)
WIM: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 18)
USO: None of the big 3 (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 18)

After this Rafa will be gunning for 20 at RG 2021 which, although he'll be an old man, will make him ultra-motivated. Snagging that elusive second AO in 2019 would greatly boost his chances of making 20 also.

Djoker is a year younger so he has time but is also behind the other two so anything less than a multi-slam year could be fatal to his chance of making 20.

Fed is still capable at slams but at 38 is more susceptible to the field. He would need the seas to part for him to get 21.
 
#28
I think the Grand Slam count will end like this.

Federer: 21
Nadal: 20
Djokovic: 18

2019 AO: Djokovic
2019 RG: Nadal
2019 WIM: Federer
2019 USO: Del Potro
2020 AO: Nadal
2020 RG: Nadal
2020 WIM: Djokovic
2020 USO: Djokovic
2021 AO: Djokovic
2021 RG: Nadal
2021 WIM: Anderson
2021 USO: Zverev
 
#31
There is faulty logic here, a better statement would be it is the same as after RG 14. (I would pushback to that but it's at least a valid point.) In your example, it is before Federer won most of his slams. Using that method we could say the gap is more than 16 years ago, when neither had won a slam!
Why is it faulty logic?

Nadal has been a slam contender, and has been chasing Federer, since winning the FO 2005. At the time, both men had proven themselves as slam champions, were in the early stages of their rivalry, and Federer stood 3 slams ahead of Nadal (4 vs. 1).

Now, 13.5 years later, despite all that has happened in both mens' careers, Federer still stands 3 slams ahead of Nadal (20 vs. 17).

The point is that Nadal has been chasing Federer for all this years, and still cannot catch the GOAT. He has got no closer to Roger in all those years.
 
#32
Why is it faulty logic?

Nadal has been a slam contender, and has been chasing Federer, since winning the FO 2005. At the time, both men had proven themselves as slam champions, were in the early stages of their rivalry, and Federer stood 3 slams ahead of Nadal (4 vs. 1).

Now, 13.5 years later, despite all that has happened in both mens' careers, Federer still stands 3 slams ahead of Nadal (20 vs. 17).

The point is that Nadal has been chasing Federer for all this years, and still cannot catch the GOAT. He has got no closer to Roger in all those years.
It has already been discussed and explained why.

If you cannot grasp it, I doubt I will be able to explain it further to you.
 
#33
It has already been discussed and explained why.

If you cannot grasp it, I doubt I will be able to explain it further to you.
You can't explain it because you are wrong.

(i.e. you want to begin the Federer vs Nadal slam count from when Federer led Nadal by the highest amount, and claim that Nadal has made up ground - when actually he has made up none, since the time he first won a slam)
 

BGod

Hall of Fame
#35
It really is only 8 tournaments. I have Novak pegged for the next 2 but it gets dicey after that as he might lose motivation again. Honestly if he got the Calendar Slam he might just call it a day given what happened in 2016. With guys like Anderson and Cilic sneaking in I think 2 of 8 Slams have to be won by wildcard guys so that leaves 6 for the Big 3. Federer's 2017 is a complete outlier for sure but you pencil him in for 1 Slam because he's the GOAT and deserves that BoD. So with 5 remaining and me already have said I think Novak gets 2 this year I'll finish it by saying 3-2-1 in Novak's favor. Nadal has won 1 Slam in 5 years outside of the French and as much of a safety net as it is, cannot be endless and I really don't see more than 2 Slams next 2 years.

Federer: 21
Nadal: 19
Djokovic: 17
 

Sport

Hall of Fame
#38
I think the Grand Slam count will end like this.

Federer: 21
Nadal: 20
Djokovic: 18

2019 AO: Djokovic
2019 RG: Nadal
2019 WIM: Federer
2019 USO: Del Potro
2020 AO: Nadal
2020 RG: Nadal
2020 WIM: Djokovic
2020 USO: Djokovic
2021 AO: Djokovic
2021 RG: Nadal
2021 WIM: Anderson
2021 USO: Zverev
Interesting prediction! One of the most reasonables predictions I have read!
 
#41
After FO 2005 it was 4-1 to Fed (+3) . So 13.5 years (in terms of slams played) he wasn't that far off.

If anything , the extra .5 of a year would have added more weight to his original comment as well as making it more accurate ;)
If it makes you feel better to draw the line there - to support someone else's point that wasn't that incisive to begin with - have fun.
 
#42
If it makes you feel better to draw the line there - to support someone else's point that wasn't that incisive to begin with - have fun.
The most reasonable point is to go by when the second guy to enter the race officially notches up his first slam. & when he did , he was 1-4 down. & you can disagree with that if you want.

But the original point was that poster mentioned that the slam gap was still the same as 13 years ago , you mentioned he was wrong. Indeed he was , by .5 of a year. What is the point of contention here?

Nadal was 3 slams behind 13.5 years ago & still is today , no bias. Just the numbers . I'm not supporting anything. It's a raw fact.
 
#43
Nadal has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. Djokovic has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. The only race is between Nadal and Djokovic for who finishes second.
You can say this until you’re blue in the face and most of their fan bases will belittle you or will inevitably change the parameters so that their man is GOAT even if they stay at 14 or 17 slams. You see that with the Nadal fans touting H2H or the Djoker fans recently elevating Masters 1000’s nearly to the level of slams. It never ends.

Neither will catch Fed even though he’s highly unlikely to retire with more than 20 majors.
 
#46
Very worrying signs for Djokovic at the end of the year, there's now no guarantee that he can survive successive 5 set matches. Nadal injury free would be a lock for 1/2 more French but he's also on life support. Fed will always be a danger at Wimbledon but another Slam would be even more miraculous than what has already happened. So my final tally is 20-18-16 and Fed the triumphant GOAT.
 
#47
Some Fed fans think Roger has NO chance to win one more slam. This is recency bias at it’s worst.

We know hand injury issues have plagued him since Wimby18, which he admitted affected his forehand (despite which he had a increasingly better latter half of the season). This is good news because there is hope he can recover a better state of play than the last 6 months

Assuming he can keep scheduling his season well and stay fit, I don’t see why him winning another Wimbledon or a fast court AO is out if the question.

The age issue is overblown. Connors was in the semis at the USO in his 40s. Roger has an infinitely better suited game than Connors for playing at a later age.

I wouldn’t write him off just yet.
 
#50
Federer - 20 (no more slams IMO)
Nadal - 18 (one FO)
Djokovic - 16 (2 more, probably one AO and one between FO and Wimbledon)
 
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